Risk-Taking and Risk Management

2020 ◽  
pp. 92-112
Author(s):  
Carolyn James

This chapter explores the ways in which gender shaped the respective approaches to political decision-making by the marquis and his wife. I argue that while the delegated nature of her authority encouraged Isabella to keep her emotions strictly in check and to be prudent in a diplomatic setting, Francesco was far more erratic. On the one hand, he adopted strategies of temporizing, prevarication, and swift changes of allegiance to hedge his bets politically, seen by contemporaries as intrinsically female vices, on the other, he indulged in reckless and competitive behaviour designed to display his masculine courage and princely disdain for caution. Together the couple evaded the dangers posed by the second French descent and the fall of Milan to Louis XII, but it was Isabella’s prudence that neutralized the ill-considered risk-taking of her husband.

2018 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 365-398
Author(s):  
William Mack

This article argues that, by concentrating on a reading of the depictions of deities on the Athenian document reliefs as symbolic representations of states rather than as divinities, previous scholarly approaches to them have failed to explore the role they ascribe to the gods in collective decision-making and the exercise of public authority. This article resituates the interpretation of these monuments in the context of other monuments depicting the gods and recent approaches to them, and the other ways in which public inscriptions, both at Athens and elsewhere, make reference to divine actors, through their erection in sacred spaces and the use of thetheoiheading. It then examines the range of possible readings of the relationship between divine agency and political decision-making which these monuments privilege and argues that they reflect a conventional understanding that, in general, Athenian decision-making was underpinned by the gods.


2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (166) ◽  
pp. 29-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Röttger

The regulation of the economic crisis within German capitalism since 2008 seems to follow thebasic structures of the so-called „Modell Deutschland”: in industrial relations a corporatistarrangement between capital, state and labour tried to absorb the consequences of the crisis,and the traditional export industry supported the new economic growth since summer 2009.The article analyses the internal and external dynamics of its transition between structuralchange of the world economy and conditions of political decision-making since its proclamationin 1976. In conclusion today the German „Exportmodell” is no longer based on classcompromises in German society on the one hand and on European balances between interestsof economic stabilization and modernization on the other hand, but a force that is able toundermine alternative paths of economic development in Europe.


Author(s):  
Frank Daumann ◽  
Florian Follert ◽  
Werner Gleißner ◽  
Endre Kamarás ◽  
Chantal Naumann

The COVID-19 pandemic is permanently changing modern social and economic coexistence. Most governments have declared infection control to be their top priority while citizens face great restrictions on their civil rights. A pandemic is an exemplary scenario in which political actors must decide about future, and thus uncertain, events. This paper tries to present a tool well established in the field of entrepreneurial and management decision making which could also be a first benchmark for political decisions. Our approach builds on the standard epidemiological SEIR model in combination with simulation techniques used in risk management. By our case study we want to demonstrate the opportunities that risk management techniques, especially risk analyses using Monte Carlo simulation, can provide to policy makers in general, and in a public health crisis in particular. Hence, our case study can be used as a framework for political decision making under incomplete information and uncertainty. Overall, we want to point out that a health policy that aims to provide comprehensive protection against infection should also be based on economic criteria. This is without prejudice to the integration of ethical considerations in the final political decision.


Author(s):  
Xavier Noël ◽  
Nematolla Jaafari ◽  
Antoine Bechara

Decisions on matters affecting a group by a member of that group (e.g., decisions on a political choice) engage a mix of cognitive and emotion-based resources. Political decision-making involves rationality, but also empathy, intuition, compassion, morality, and fairness. Importantly, coping with uncertainty, assuming risk, dealing with huge responsibilities and resisting disappointment and considerable pressure are also crucial. Some of those decision-making elements from a neurocognitive framework proposed under the somatic marker hypothesis (SMH) are developed here. Based on the observation of abnormal decision-making characterizing patients with ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC), the SMH affords discussions of mechanisms involved in antisocial decision-making in the political realm, such as engaging in immoral and corrupt behaviors. In addition, the SMH sheds light on pivotal attributes required for good leadership and governance, such as resistance to pressure, risk-taking, seduction, and dominance, discussed with respect to modern theories of psychopathic tendencies in the context of political decision-making.


1968 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-163
Author(s):  
Stéphane Bernard

Political Decision-Making in a DemocracyAll the factors which influence political decision-making may (reasonably) be integrated into a model which combines operational concepts of power, influence, and authority. The problem-solving approach is applied to one class of decisions, defined here as those made for social situations involving both technical and political factors. Political power seems necessarily to be engaged in a twofold form of activity. On the one hand it formulates the content of decisions to be made and is thereby affected by both the technical and political definition of the problem to be resolved. On the other hand, power is both an agent and an object of influence at every stage of the decisional process. Political power appears, then, to be a more comprehensive concept than either authority or influence. Its basic constituents are found in a fusion of the function of influence with the function of defining issues authoritatively. Authority is but one kind of influence while influence itself is simply one of the two chief functions of power.Power, before it is influential, is creative, inventive of ideas, and of solutions. Incorporation of these different categories into a model provides us with a systematic representation of the decision-making process of formulation, adoption, and execution. Particular attention is devoted to differentiating those components of behaviour on which authority is based from those which make the assessment of authority possible. On the whole, authoritative decision-making seems to be circumscribed by the original definition of the problem and by the decision-maker's personal under-standing. Up to a certain point this permits us to distinguish the part played by the force of given circumstances from that attributable to the free choice of the actors in a democratic political system.


2019 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-310
Author(s):  
Dragan Simic ◽  
Dragan Zivojinovic

The forty-fifth US president, unlike most of his predecessors, has no experience in political decision-making. Nevertheless, Trump?s behavior from the big business can help find patterns of his decision making. The two-and-a-half-year presidential term, however, provides convincing insights into how he makes decisions. Although he likes to make decisions and thinks he does it well, President Donald Trump actually spends very little time preparing for the most difficult decisions. In most cases, the president decides beforehand on instinct, and then actually just seeks justification and support for the decision already made. On the other hand, over-reliance on the closest circle of associates and not delving into the details and several aspects of the problem provides a too big opportunity for miscalculations and wrong decisions. In this mix of micromanagement and macromanagement, Trump?s model is most reminiscent of a competitive decision-making model, while in terms of control and involvement in the political process, his management style can be characterized by a Magistrate/Delegator combination; while when it comes to leader sensitivity to the context, we see Trump as the ?Maverick?.


2014 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
pp. 250-259
Author(s):  
Etienne Verhoeyen

Met dit boek levert Frank Seberechts een nagenoeg volledige studie af van een van de minder fraai kanten van de Belgische samenleving in 1940: de administratieve arrestatie en de wegvoering naar Frankrijk van enkele duizenden personen (de ‘verdachten’), Belgen of in België verblijvende vreemdelingen. De extreem-rechtse en pro-Duitse arrestanten hebben na hun vrijlating dit feit politiek in hun voordeel uitgebaat, waardoor volledig in de schaduw kwam te staan dat de overgrote meerderheid van de weggevoerden joodse mensen waren die in de jaren voor de oorlog naar België waren gevlucht. Dat het beeld van de wegvoeringen niet volledig is, is grotendeels te wijten aan het feit dat de meeste archieven die hierop betrekking hebben tijdens de meidagen van 1940 vernietigd werden. Met name de politieke besluitvorming over de wegvoeringen vertoont nog steeds schemerzones, zodat het vastleggen van verantwoordelijkheden ook vandaag nog een gewaagde onderneming is.________Deportations and the deported during the Maydays in 1940 By means of this book Frank Seberechts provides an almost complete study of one of the less admirable sides of Belgian society in 1940: the administrative arrest and the deportation to France of some thousands of people (‘the suspects’), Belgians or foreigners residing in Belgium. The extreme-right and pro-German detainees politically exploited this fact after they had been freed, but this completely overshadowed the point that the large majority of the deported people were Jews who had fled to Belgium during the years preceding the war. This incomplete portrayal of the deportations is mainly due to the fact that most of the archives relating to the events had been destroyed during the Maydays of 1940. The history of the political decision-making about the deportations in particular still shows many grey areas and it is therefore still a risky business even today to determine which people should be held accountable.


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