Migration Crisis and “Brexit”

Author(s):  
William Outhwaite

The issue of migration bridges the divide between short-term and long-term explanations of Brexit.Short-term explanations stress the drift toward a referendum in British politics, the opportunistic miscalculation by a playboy prime minister, and the manipulation of the referendum vote by a grotesquely biased press and some of the same conspiratorial forces which secured Trump’s election. Longer-term explanations point to historical differences between the UK and (the rest of) Europe; the fact that the UK escaped defeat and occupation in World War Two; the distinctive legal system shared by England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (though not Scotland); and the UK’s majoritarian political culture. This chapter discusses in a comparative context. The contribution of a migration crisis to the UK’s EU membership and constitutional .

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Marco Giuliani

Abstract The Brexit process has shattered the foundations of British politics, with prime ministerial resignations, government defeats, continuous rebellions and floor-crossings. These phenomena seem at odds with the usual decisiveness of Westminster systems. However, the aforementioned departures from the British tradition could be interpreted as compatible with the typical distance of any empirical reality from theoretical models, as exceptions to the rule due to the specificity of the European issue, or as the surfacing of some deeper social, economic and cultural tensions. Data alone are insufficient to confirm any of the alternative interpretations, although they seem to confirm the existence of long-term dynamics rather than some short-term exceptionalism. Within this scenario, the article suggests that a series of institutional innovations introduced since the late 1990s have facilitated the political consolidation of those tensions, contributed to the partisan dealignment, and made room for a potential departure from a Westminster model of democracy.


Author(s):  
Sarah Dixon Smith ◽  
David Henson ◽  
George Hay ◽  
Andrew S.C. Rice

LAY SUMMARY The First World War created the largest group of amputees in history. There were over 41,000 amputee Veterans in the UK alone. Recent studies estimate that over two thirds of amputees will suffer long-term pain because of their injuries. Medical files for the First World War have recently been released to the public. Despite the century between the First World War and the recent Afghanistan conflict, treatments for injured soldiers and the most common types of injuries have not changed much. A team of historians, doctors, and amputee Veterans have collaborated to investigate what happened next for soldiers injured in the war and how their wounds affected their postwar lives, and hope that looking back at the First World War and seeing which treatments worked and what happened to the amputees as they got older (e.g., if having an amputation put them at risk of other illnesses or injuries) can assist today’s Veterans and medical teams in planning for their future care.


Author(s):  
Paul Cairney ◽  
Emily St Denny

We have demonstrated that many governments face the same ‘prevention puzzle’, caused partly by universal drivers associated with multi-centric policymaking. Further, they face contradictory pressures to share power for pragmatic reasons or centralize power to seem in control. However, what if policymakers in different political systems try to solve these dilemmas in fundamentally different ways? For example, are some systems more conducive to long-term planning and more likely to facilitate central governments trying to ‘let go’ and encourage localism? This question is often central to comparative political studies involving the UK. The UK’s Westminster model often represents the archetype of a ‘majoritarian’ democracy with a top-down policymaking style and adversarial political culture. Lijphart contrasts it with ‘consensus’ democracy characterized by coalition-building between parties and political culture built on ‘inclusiveness, bargaining and compromise’. In theory, this distinction could guide our analysis of UK and Scottish preventive policymaking, since some ‘architects of devolution’ envisaged ‘new Scottish politics’ as the antidote to ‘old Westminster’, to produce a consensus democracy with greater emphasis on pragmatic policymaking. However, their reputations are inaccurate caricatures that provide a misleading way to compare UK and Scottish prevention policy.


2019 ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Gilbody ◽  
Emily Peckham ◽  
Della Bailey ◽  
Catherine Arundel ◽  
Paul Heron ◽  
...  

Summary Smoking contributes to health inequalities for people with severe mental illness (SMI). Although smoking cessation interventions are effective in the short term, there are few long-term trial-based estimates of abstinence. The SCIMITAR trials programme includes the largest trial to date of a smoking cessation intervention for people with SMI, but this was underpowered to detect anticipated long-term quit rates. By pooling pilot and full-trial data we found that quit rates were maintained at 12 months (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.02–2.73, P = 0.04). Policymakers can now be confident that bespoke smoking cessation interventions produce successful short- and long-term quitting.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-450
Author(s):  
Paul Arthur Berkman

Summary Science diplomacy is an international, interdisciplinary and inclusive (holistic) process, involving informed decisionmaking to balance national interests and common interests for the benefit of all on Earth across generations. Informed decisions operate across a ‘continuum of urgencies’, which extends from security to sustainability time scales for peoples, nations and our world. The COVID-19 pandemic is the ‘most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War’, as noted in March 2020 by UN Secretary-General António Guterres, when survival is once again a common interest at local-global levels. This essay introduces common-interest-building strategies with science diplomacy to operate short term to long term, before-through-after the ‘inflection point’ of our global pandemic, as the next step in the evolution of our globally interconnected civilisation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 306-327
Author(s):  
Christoph Bernhardt

The paper analyses the West-Berlin pathway to the “car-friendly city” in the context of the Cold War. It starts by retracing some long term continuities since the 1920s and gives special attention to the institutional settings and power struggles within the municipal authorities. The prospective character of the planning for the “Stadtautobahn” since 1945 which was far ahead of the real motorisation of the time is explained by the strong political and ideological intention to demonstrate the superiority of the Western life style. The Berlin case is reflected in the context of projects for ring-roads in other European cities.


Subject The package of reforms on a new EU-UK relationship. Significance The agreement between the United Kingdom and its EU partners sets the stage for the UK referendum on EU membership, which Prime Minister David Cameron has set for June 23. Cameron said he had negotiated new terms that would allow the United Kingdom to remain in the EU. Impacts The deal bolsters the campaign to remain in the EU, but the referendum outcome is still highly uncertain. The deal will only come into effect if the outcome is for remaining, forestalling a second referendum for better terms. If the outcome is for leaving, a new relationship with the EU would have to be negotiated during a two-year transition period. It would also probably lead to a second Scottish independence referendum and UK break-up.


Subject The government's preferred timetable for the UK referendum on EU membership. Significance The EU membership referendum will be a major event in both EU and UK political and commercial life. Prime Minister David Cameron's official position is that the poll could take place any time before end-2017. He is less concerned about the likely outcome of the referendum, which he is confident will produce an 'in' result, than about achieving a margin in favour of membership that decisively settles the question and minimises the damage to the Conservative Party arising from the process. Impacts The most likely referendum date is September 15, 2016. This timetable would make the key renegotiation period the first half of 2016, when the sympathetic Dutch government chairs the EU Council. The German government would also prefer the UK referendum to be dealt with relatively quickly.


BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. e046912
Author(s):  
Patrick Bidulka ◽  
Stephen O’Neill ◽  
Anirban Basu ◽  
Samantha Wilkinson ◽  
Richard J Silverwood ◽  
...  

IntroductionFor people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who require an antidiabetic drug as an add-on to metformin, there is controversy about whether newer drug classes such as dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) reduce the risk of long-term complications compared with sulfonylureas (SU). There is widespread variation across National Health Service Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in drug choice for second-line treatment in part because National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines do not specify a single preferred drug class, either overall or within specific patient subgroups. This study will evaluate the relative effectiveness of the three most common second-line treatments in the UK (SU, DPP4i and SGLT2i as add-ons to metformin) and help target treatments according to individual risk profiles.Methods and analysisThe study includes people with T2DM prescribed one of the second-line treatments-of-interest between 2014 and 2020 within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics. We will use an instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate short-term and long-term relative effectiveness of second-line treatments according to individuals’ risk profiles. This method minimises bias from unmeasured confounders by exploiting the natural variation in second-line prescribing across CCGs as an IV for the choice of prescribed treatment. The primary outcome to assess short-term effectiveness will be change in haemoglobin A1c (%) 12 months after treatment initiation. Outcome measures to assess longer-term effectiveness (maximum ~6 years) will include microvascular and macrovascular complications, all-cause mortality and hospital admissions during follow-up.Ethics and disseminationThis study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (20-064) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Research Ethics Committee (21395). Results, codelists and other analysis code will be made available to patients, clinicians, policy-makers and researchers.


2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nourelhuda Darwish ◽  
Elsammoual Mohammed ◽  
Ibrahim Warrag ◽  
AdeelAbbas Dhahri ◽  
Bogdan Ivanov

Abstract Aim NELA is a project that was introduced in the UK since 2013, aiming to improve quality of care for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy.  NELA mortality risk calculator”was launched in 2017, which estimates the risk of death within 30 days of emergency laparotomy.  Our aim is to determine the short-term (30-day) and long-term (12 months) outcome in patients undergoing emergency laparotomy surgery and compare this with the estimated scores that were documented in the NELA website. Methods This is retrospective study involving patients who underwent emergency laparotomy surgery in the year of 2019. The primary outcome is to determine short-term (30-day) mortality. Results A total of 135 patients were included. The overall 30-day mortality was 8.8% (12/135). 55.77% (78/135) had NELA mortality score of < 5%. Only 1 out of these (1.28%) died within 30 days. (4/78,5.12%) died in 6 to 12 months period of this group. 9 patients (11.53%) had NELA score > 30%, of which 6 (66.66%) died within 30 days and 1 died within 6 months. 26.96% (48/135) had NELA scores 55 to 30%, 5 of them (10.41%) died within 30 days while 7 (14.58%) died within 6-12 months.  Patients with NELA scores more than 5% who survived the operation had higher chance of 30-day complications (25.58%, 11/43), when compared to those with scores less than 5% (11.68%, 9/77). Conclusion NELA mortality score has high accuracy especially if it was >30%. In addition, high NELA scores are associated with increased risk of post operative complications.


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