Does Voting by Mail Increase Participation? Using Matching to Analyze a Natural Experiment

2007 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 428-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thad Kousser ◽  
Megan Mullin
Keyword(s):  
Random Process ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Electoral Reform ◽  
Large Sample ◽  
Selection Problems ◽  
General Elections ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Vote By Mail

Would holding elections by mail increase voter turnout? Many electoral reform advocates predict that mail ballot elections will boost participation, basing their prediction on the high turnout rate among absentee voters and on the rise in voter turnout after Oregon switched to voting by mail. However, selection problems inherent to studies of absentee voters and Oregon give us important reasons to doubt whether their results would extend to more general applications of voting by mail. In this paper, we isolate the effects of voting in mail ballot elections by taking advantage of a natural experiment in which voters are assigned in a nearly random process to cast their ballots by mail. We use matching methods to ensure that, in our analysis, the demographic characteristics of these voters mirror those of polling-place voters who take part in the same elections. Drawing on data from a large sample of California counties in two general elections, we find that voting by mail does not deliver on the promise of greater participation in general elections. In fact, voters who are assigned to vote by mail turn out at lower rates than those who are sent to a polling place. Analysis of a sample of local special elections, by contrast, indicates that voting by mail can increase turnout in these otherwise low-participation contests.

Voter Turnout

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Öhrvall
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Population Groups ◽  
Socioeconomic Resources ◽  
High Turnout

For several decades, Sweden has had a relatively high voter turnout, both in relation to the first half of the twentieth century and in comparison with other countries. Still, even in this high-turnout context substantial differences in turnout can be found when comparing different population groups. Demographic characteristics and socioeconomic resources are related to the propensity to vote. A more general conclusion is that voter turnout is associated with a higher level of equality in participation. The increase in turnout in recent Swedish elections has led to a more equal participation, because this increase has been greater within groups where voting rates were lower to begin with.

Drowned Out by the Noise? The Downstream Mobilisation Effects of Party Campaigning between Local and General Elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 188-198
Author(s):  
Joshua Townsley
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
General Election ◽  
Experimental Setting ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Downstream Effects ◽  
General Elections ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Short Space

AbstractCampaign experiments often report positive effects on voter turnout. But do these effects endure at subsequent elections? Existing studies provide mixed evidence on downstream effects, and the rate at which initial mobilisation effects decay. This paper contributes to existing research by presenting a pre-registered analysis of downstream effects in a unique experimental setting. I test whether effects from a UK partisan experiment in a low turnout election in May 2017 persisted at the high turnout general election a month later. The findings show that in this short space of time, the original turnout effects virtually disappeared, suggesting that downstream effects resulting from campaign experiments can be quickly subsumed by the high saliency of subsequent elections.

scholarly journals Protests, Pandemics, and Political Participation: Voter Turnout in Georgia in the 2020 Elections

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiela Crabtree ◽  
Bernard Fraga
Keyword(s):  
Racial Differences ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The Self ◽  
Racial Justice ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Mobilization ◽  
Vote By Mail ◽  
Black Voters ◽  
Protest Activity

We consider how pandemic-related shifts in election administration and racial justice protest activity impacted participation in 2020 primary and general elections in Georgia. Using a comprehensive statewide voter file, including data on the self-reported race and validated turnout of over 7 million registered Georgians, we analyze the combined effect of these events on racial differences in voter turnout rates, methods, and timing. We find that despite a shift to mail balloting, Black voters were significantly more likely to vote in person during the pandemic than White Democrats. These voters were later less likely to vote by mail (or vote at all) in November. We also demonstrate that Black turnout was significantly higher in the period following racial justice protests in Georgia than it was for other groups. The results of this study indicate how election reforms and non-electoral mobilization can shape turnout disparities even among highly engaged voters.

Is Distance to Drop Box an Appropriate Proxy for Drop Box Treatment? A Case Study of Washington State

2021 ◽  
pp. 1532673X2110221
Author(s):  
Loren Collingwood ◽  
Benjamin Gonzalez O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
The United States ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Primary 52 ◽  
The One ◽  
Vote By Mail

In the United States, drop box mail-in voting has increased, particularly in the all vote by mail (VBM) states of Washington, Colorado, Utah, and Oregon. To assess if drop boxes improve voter turnout, research proxies box treatment by voters’ residence distance to nearest drop box. However, no research has tested the assumption that voters use drop boxes nearest their residence more so than they do other drop boxes. Using individual-level voter data from a 2020 Washington State election, we show that voters are more likely to use the nearest drop box to their residence relative to other drop boxes. In Washington’s 2020 August primary, 52% of drop box voters in our data used their nearest drop box. Moreover, those who either (1) vote by mail, or (2) used a different drop box from the one closest to their residence live further away from their closest drop box. Implications are discussed.

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

2010 ◽  
Vol 104 (2) ◽  
pp. 268-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS G. HANSFORD ◽  
BRAD T. GOMEZ
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Instrumental Variable ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
High Turnout ◽  
Specific Factors

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

Theoretical Framework and Models

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan E. Leighley ◽  
Jonathan Nagler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Demographic Characteristic ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
The Impact

This chapter introduces the theoretical framework that guides the analyses and discussions of the determinants of voter turnout. It adopts a model of turnout that poses an individual's decision to vote as a reflection of the costs and benefits of engaging in such behavior. Then, for each presidential election year since 1972, it estimates turnout as a function of demographic characteristics of interest. These estimates allow us to estimate the impact of one demographic characteristic (such as income) on turnout while holding other demographic characteristics (such as education and race) constant. These estimates are referred to as “conditional” relationships. The findings suggest that the conditional relationships between education and turnout, and income and turnout (i.e., conditional income bias) have been relatively stable (or modestly reduced) since 1972. Important changes in the conditional relationships between age, race, gender, and turnout have also been observed.

Social Capital and Voter Turnout: Evidence from Saint's Day Fiestas in Mexico

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Atkinson ◽  
Anthony Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Community Activity ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
Percentage Points

Social capital and community activity are thought to increase voter turnout, but reverse causation and omitted variables may bias the results of previous studies. This article exploits saint's day fiestas in Mexico as a natural experiment to test this causal relationship. Saint's day fiestas provide temporary but large shocks to the connectedness and trust within a community, and the timing of these fiestas is quasi-random. For both cross-municipality and within-municipality estimates, saint's day fiestas occurring near an election decrease turnout by 2.5 to 3.5 percentage points. So community activities that generate social capital can inhibit political participation. These findings may give pause to scholars and policy makers who assume that such community activity and social capital will improve the performance of democracy.

Voter Turnout and Political Equality: Testing the ‘Law of Dispersion’ in a Swedish Natural Experiment

Politics ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 172-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikael Persson ◽  
Maria Solevid ◽  
Richard Öhrvall
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Political Equality ◽  
The Law
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