Predictive value of unmeasured ion component of base excess in septic patients with the high risk of death

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (Supplement 34) ◽  
pp. 167
Author(s):  
W. Skorzynski ◽  
K. Przesmycki
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Base Excess ◽  
Risk Of Death

Concerning the informativeness of the methods for predicting prognosis of peritonitis

2021 ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Nikolay Vyacheslavovich Lebedev ◽  
Vasily Sergeevich Popov ◽  
Alexey Evgenievich Klimov ◽  
Vladimir Alexandrovich Ivanov ◽  
Giorgi Teimurazovich Svanadze
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Positive Result ◽  
Sensitivity And Specificity ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Secondary Peritonitis ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Correct Forecast

The analysis of literature data on the most common general clinical and specific systems for predicting the outcome of peritonitis was carried out. The informativeness of the methods for predicting the outcome of peritonitis was performed according to the parameters of sensitivity and specificity (Se and Sp). The sum of the proportions of correct forecast results characterizes the accuracy of the method (Ac). We also calculated the predictive value of a positive result (PPV; hereinafter referred to as predictive value), which is the proportion (probability) of unfavorable outcomes among all patients with a high risk of death. The article also demonstrates the assessment of predictive ability using the example of four common scales for predicting the outcome of secondary peritonitis. The results of the study showed that none of the studied systems for predicting the outcome of peritonitis is universal and absolutely reliable. Despite the fact that all the studied systems (scales) are used in clinical practice, none of them can completely satisfy surgeons, primarily in the choice of access, the volume of surgery and the option for its completion.

Is Colour Doppler Ultrasound a Sensitive Screening Method in Diagnosing Deep Vein Thrombosis after Hip Surgery ?

1996 ◽  
Vol 75 (02) ◽  
pp. 242-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Magnusson ◽  
Bengt I Eriksson ◽  
Peter Kãlebo ◽  
Ramon Sivertsson
Keyword(s):  
Deep Vein Thrombosis ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Doppler Ultrasound ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Screening Method ◽  
Colour Doppler ◽  
Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Colour Doppler Ultrasound ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Deep Vein

SummaryPatients undergoing orthopedic surgery are at high risk of developing deep vein thrombosis. One hundred and thirty-eight consecutive patients undergoing total hip replacement or hip fracture surgery were included in this study. They were surveilled with colour Doppler ultrasound (CDU) and bilateral ascending contrast phlebography. The prevalence of proximal and distal DVT in this study was 5.8% and 20.3% respectively.CDU has a satisfactory sensitivity in patients with symptomatic deep vein thrombosis, especially in the proximal region. These results could not be confirmed in the present study of asymptomatic patients. The sensitivity was 62.5% (95% confidence interval: C.I. 24-91%) and the specificity 99.6% (C.I. 98-100%) for proximal DVT; 53.6% (C.I. 34-73%) and 98% (C.I. 96-99%) respectively for distal thrombi. The overall sensitivity was 58.1% (C.I. 39-75%) and the specificity 98% (C.I. 96-99%). The positive predictive value was 83.3% (C.I. 36-99%) and 75% (C.I. 51-91%) for proximal and distal DVT respectively. The negative predictive value was 98.9% (C.I. 98-100%) and 94.9% (C.I. 92-98%) for proximal and distal DVT respectively. The results of this study showed that even with a highly specialised and experienced investigator the sensitivity of CDU was too low to make it suitable for screening purposes in a high risk surgical population.

TWILIGHT: A Randomized Trial of Ticagrelor Monotherapy Versus Ticagrelor Plus Aspirin Beginning at 3 Months in High-risk Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johny Nicolas ◽  
Usman Baber ◽  
Roxana Mehran
Keyword(s):  
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Antiplatelet Therapy ◽  
Dual Antiplatelet Therapy ◽  
Coronary Intervention ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
High Risk Patients ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Percutaneous Coronary ◽  
Risk Patients

A P2Y12 inhibitor-based monotherapy after a short period of dual antiplatelet therapy is emerging as a plausible strategy to decrease bleeding events in high-risk patients receiving dual antiplatelet therapy after percutaneous coronary intervention. Ticagrelor With Aspirin or Alone in High-Risk Patients After Coronary Intervention (TWILIGHT), a randomized double-blind trial, tested this approach by dropping aspirin at 3 months and continuing with ticagrelor monotherapy for an additional 12 months. The study enrolled 9,006 patients, of whom 7,119 who tolerated 3 months of dual antiplatelet therapy were randomized after 3 months into two arms: ticagrelor plus placebo and ticagrelor plus aspirin. The primary endpoint of interest, Bleeding Academic Research Consortium type 2, 3, or 5 bleeding, occurred less frequently in the experimental arm (HR 0.56; 95% CI [0.45–0.68]; p<0.001), whereas the secondary endpoint of ischemic events was similar between the two arms (HR 0.99; 95% CI [0.78–1.25]). Transition from dual antiplatelet therapy consisting of ticagrelor plus aspirin to ticagrelor-based monotherapy in high-risk patients at 3 months after percutaneous coronary intervention resulted in a lower risk of bleeding events without an increase in risk of death, MI, or stroke.

scholarly journals POS1260 FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE SARS-COV-2 INFECTION IN PATIENTS WITH INFLAMMATORY RHEUMATIC DISEASES IN MADRID: RESULTS FROM REUMA-COVID SORCOM REGISTRY

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 914-914
Author(s):  
A. Boteanu ◽  
A. García Fernández ◽  
N. De la Torre ◽  
M. Pavia Pascual ◽  
O. Sanchez Pernaute ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Rheumatic Diseases ◽  
Connective Tissue Diseases ◽  
Severe Infection ◽  
Pulmonary Involvement ◽  
Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Cardiovascular Comorbidities ◽  
Male Sex

Background:Patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRD) infected with SARS-CoV-2 may be at risk to develop a severe course of COVID-19 due to the immune dysregulation or the influence of immunomodulating drugs on the course of the infection. For a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infections in patients with IRD and due to the high incidence of COVID-19 in Madrid from the beginning of this pandemic infection in Spain, the Society of Rheumatology from Madrid (SORCOM) established a registry (REUMA-COVID SORCOM) shortly after the beginning of the pandemic in Spain.Objectives:To determine factors associated with severity of infection with SARS-CoV-2 in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases in MadridMethods:The REUMA-COVID SORCOM registry is a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study conducted in Madrid, a SORCOM initiative. All rheumatology departments from Madrid were invited to participate. The study includes patients with IRD presenting with a confirmed or highly suspected diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and November 10, 2020. We consider severe infection death or need of hospitalization. Inclusion criteria was having an IRD and at least 1 of the following 4 criteria: (1) a biologically confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis based on a positive result of a SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test on a nasopharyngeal swab; (2) Detection of IgM or IgG anti SARS-CoV2 in a symptomatic or asymptomatic patients (3)typical thoracic computed tomography (CT) abnormalities (ground-glass opacities) in epidemic areas; (4) COVID19–typical symptoms in an epidemic zone of COVID-19.Results:As of November 10, 2020, 417 patients with IRD were included in the REUMA-COVID SORCOM registry. 5 patients were discharged for incomplete data. Of 412 patients (mean age 57 years, 87.4% Caucasian race, 66.3% female) 174 need hospitalization (42.2%) and 33 patients died (18.4% mortality in hospitalized patients). 82.3% had comorbidities. 234 (56.8%) patients were classified as inflammatory arthropathy, 133 (32.3%) had connective tissue diseases (CTD). 41.1% of the patients had a large history of IRD (> 10 years). 10.4% of patients had previously pulmonary involvement. The study includes 143 patients taking Methotrexate, 89 patients taking anti-TNFα therapy and 27 Rituximab. In the univariant analysis, no differences were seen in the severity of COVID-19 infection in patients taking methotrexate. 63% of the all patients taking Rituximab included in the registry need hospitalization and 22% of them died. Hypertension, COPD or cardiovascular disease was associated with hospitalization.Independent factors associated with COVID-19 hospitalization in the multivariate analysis was: age (>62 years), male sex, IMC >30, previous cardiovascular comorbidities and the IRD disease duration (> 10 years). Independent factors associated with COVID-19 related death was: age (> 62 years), having a CTD diagnose, pulmonary involvement before infection and chronical GC treatment.Conclusion:Patients with IRD represent a population of particular interest in the pandemic context because the baseline immunological alteration and the treated with immunosuppressants agents they receive, comorbidities and the well-known risk of severe infection. Older age, male sex, cardiovascular comorbidities were factors associated with high risk of hospitalization in IRD patients. CTD diseases, previously pulmonary involvement and chronical GC treatment with more than 10mg/day were associated with high risk of death. Neither anti TNF-α treatment nor Methotrexate were risk factor for hospitalization or death COVID-19 related in IRD patients.Disclosure of Interests:None declared

scholarly journals Efficiency of non-invasive prenatal screening in pregnant women at advanced maternal age

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Zhu ◽  
Xiaoxiao Jin ◽  
Yuqing Xu ◽  
Weihua Zhang ◽  
Xiaodan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Pregnant Women ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Trisomy 21 ◽  
Maternal Age ◽  
Prenatal Screening ◽  
Advanced Maternal Age ◽  
Youden Index ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

Abstract Background Non-invasive prenatal screening (NIPS) is widely used as the alternative choice for pregnant women at high-risk of fetal aneuploidy. However, whether NIPS has a good detective efficiency for pregnant women at advanced maternal age (AMA) has not been fully studied especially in Chinese women. Methods Twenty-nine thousand three hundred forty-three pregnant women at AMA with singleton pregnancy who received NIPS and followed-up were recruited. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the Youden Index for detecting fetal chromosomal aneuploidies were analyzed. The relationship between maternal age and common fetal chromosomal aneuploidy was observed. Results The sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV of NIPS for detecting fetal trisomy 21 were 99.11, 99.96, 90.98, and 100%, respectively. These same parameters for detecting fetal trisomy 18 were 100, 99.94, 67.92, and 100%, respectively. Finally, these parameters for detecting trisomy 13 were 100, 99.96, 27.78, and 100%, respectively. The prevalence of fetal trisomy 21 increased exponentially with maternal age. The high-risk percentage incidence rate of fetal trisomy 21 was significantly higher in the pregnant women at 37 years old or above than that in pregnant women at 35 to 37 years old. (Youden index = 37). Conclusion It is indicated that NIPS is an effective prenatal screening method for pregnant women at AMA.

Renal function improves mortality prediction in acute pulmonary embolism: results of a multicentre cohort study with external validation in the RIETE registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Chopard ◽  
D Jimenez ◽  
G Serzian ◽  
F Ecarnot ◽  
N Falvo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Renal Function ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Renal Dysfunction ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Acute Pe

Abstract Background Renal dysfunction may influence outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE). We determined the incremental value of adding renal function impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR &lt;60 ml/min/1.73m2) on top of the 2019 ESC prognostic model, for the prediction of 30-day all-cause mortality in acute PE patients from a prospective, multicenter cohort. Methods and results We identified which of three eGFR formulae predicted death most accurately. Changes in global model fit, discrimination, calibration and net reclassification index (NRI) were evaluated with addition of eGFR. We prospectively included consecutive adult patients with acute PE diagnosed as per ESC guidelines. Among 1,943 patients, (mean age 67.3±17.1, 50.4% women), 107 (5.5% (95% CI 4.5–6.5%)) died during 30-day follow-up. The eGFRMDRD4 formula was the most accurate for prediction of death. The observed mortality rate was higher for intermediate-low risk (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–3.4) and high-risk PE (OR 10.3, 95% CI 3.6–17.3), and 30-day bleeding was significantly higher (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3–3.5) in patients with vs without eGFRMDRD4 &lt;60 ml/min/1.73m2. The addition of eGFRMDRD4 information improved model fit, discriminatory capacity, and calibration of the ESC models. NRI was significantly improved (p&lt;0.001), with 18% reclassification of predicted mortality, specifically in intermediate and high-risk PE. External validation using data from the RIETE registry confirmed our findings (Table). Conclusion Addition of eGFRMDRD4-derived renal dysfunction on top of the ESC prognostic algorithm yields significant reclassification of risk of death in intermediate and high-risk PE. Impact on therapy remains to be determined. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): BMS-Pfizer Alliance, Bayer Healthcare

Identifying children at high risk for infection-related decompensation using a predictive emergency department-based electronic assessment tool

Diagnosis ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Sepanski ◽  
Arno L. Zaritsky ◽  
Sandip A. Godambe
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Firing Rate ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Electronic Assessment ◽  
Ed Visits

AbstractObjectivesElectronic alert systems to identify potential sepsis in children presenting to the emergency department (ED) often either alert too frequently or fail to detect earlier stages of decompensation where timely treatment might prevent serious outcomes.MethodsWe created a predictive tool that continuously monitors our hospital’s electronic health record during ED visits. The tool incorporates new standards for normal/abnormal vital signs based on data from ∼1.2 million children at 169 hospitals. Eighty-two gold standard (GS) sepsis cases arising within 48 h were identified through retrospective chart review of cases sampled from 35,586 ED visits during 2012 and 2014–2015. An additional 1,027 cases with high severity of illness (SOI) based on 3 M’s All Patient Refined – Diagnosis-Related Groups (APR-DRG) were identified from these and 26,026 additional visits during 2017. An iterative process assigned weights to main factors and interactions significantly associated with GS cases, creating an overall “score” that maximized the sensitivity for GS cases and positive predictive value for high SOI outcomes.ResultsTool implementation began August 2017; subsequent improvements resulted in 77% sensitivity for identifying GS sepsis within 48 h, 22.5% positive predictive value for major/extreme SOI outcomes, and 2% overall firing rate of ED patients. The incidence of high-severity outcomes increased rapidly with tool score. Admitted alert positive patients were hospitalized nearly twice as long as alert negative patients.ConclusionsOur ED-based electronic tool combines high sensitivity in predicting GS sepsis, high predictive value for physiologic decompensation, and a low firing rate. The tool can help optimize critical treatments for these high-risk children.

scholarly journals Sernbo score predicts survival after intracapsular hip fracture in the elderly

2013 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
EJC Dawe ◽  
E Lindisfarne ◽  
T Singh ◽  
I McFadyen ◽  
P Stott
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Social Situation ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Intracapsular Hip Fracture ◽  
The Mean

Introduction The Sernbo score uses four factors (age, social situation, mobility and mental state) to divide patients into a high-risk and a low-risk group. This study sought to assess the use of the Sernbo score in predicting mortality after an intracapsular hip fracture. Methods A total of 259 patients with displaced intracapsular hip fractures were included in the study. Data from prospectively generated databases provided 22 descriptive variables for each patient. These included operative management, blood tests and co-mobidities. Multivariate analysis was used to identify significant predictors of mortality. Results The mean patient age was 85 years and the mean follow-up duration was 1.5 years. The one-year survival rate was 92% (±0.03) in the low-risk group and 65% (±0.046) in the high-risk group. Four variables predicted mortality: Sernbo score >15 (p=0.0023), blood creatinine (p=0.0026), ASA (American Society of Anaesthesiologists) grade >3 (p=0.0038) and non-operative treatment (p=0.0377). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the Sernbo score as the only predictor of 30-day mortality (area under curve 0.71 [0.65–0.76]). The score had a sensitivity of 92% and a specificity of 51% for prediction of death at 30 days. Conclusions The Sernbo score identifies patients at high risk of death in the 30 days following injury. This very simple score could be used to direct extra early multidisciplinary input to high-risk patients on admission with an intracapsular hip fracture.

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