Renal function improves mortality prediction in acute pulmonary embolism: results of a multicentre cohort study with external validation in the RIETE registry

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Chopard ◽  
D Jimenez ◽  
G Serzian ◽  
F Ecarnot ◽  
N Falvo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Renal Function ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Renal Dysfunction ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Acute Pe

Abstract Background Renal dysfunction may influence outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE). We determined the incremental value of adding renal function impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate, eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2) on top of the 2019 ESC prognostic model, for the prediction of 30-day all-cause mortality in acute PE patients from a prospective, multicenter cohort. Methods and results We identified which of three eGFR formulae predicted death most accurately. Changes in global model fit, discrimination, calibration and net reclassification index (NRI) were evaluated with addition of eGFR. We prospectively included consecutive adult patients with acute PE diagnosed as per ESC guidelines. Among 1,943 patients, (mean age 67.3±17.1, 50.4% women), 107 (5.5% (95% CI 4.5–6.5%)) died during 30-day follow-up. The eGFRMDRD4 formula was the most accurate for prediction of death. The observed mortality rate was higher for intermediate-low risk (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–3.4) and high-risk PE (OR 10.3, 95% CI 3.6–17.3), and 30-day bleeding was significantly higher (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3–3.5) in patients with vs without eGFRMDRD4 <60 ml/min/1.73m2. The addition of eGFRMDRD4 information improved model fit, discriminatory capacity, and calibration of the ESC models. NRI was significantly improved (p<0.001), with 18% reclassification of predicted mortality, specifically in intermediate and high-risk PE. External validation using data from the RIETE registry confirmed our findings (Table). Conclusion Addition of eGFRMDRD4-derived renal dysfunction on top of the ESC prognostic algorithm yields significant reclassification of risk of death in intermediate and high-risk PE. Impact on therapy remains to be determined. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private grant(s) and/or Sponsorship. Main funding source(s): BMS-Pfizer Alliance, Bayer Healthcare

scholarly journals Renal dysfunction improves risk stratification and may call for a change in the management of intermediate- and high-risk acute pulmonary embolism: results from a multicenter cohort study with external validation

Critical Care ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Chopard ◽  
David Jimenez ◽  
Guillaume Serzian ◽  
Fiona Ecarnot ◽  
Nicolas Falvo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Renal Dysfunction ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Acute Pe

Abstract Background Renal dysfunction influences outcomes after pulmonary embolism (PE). We aimed to determine the incremental value of adding renal dysfunction, defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), on top of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prognostic model, for the prediction of 30-day mortality in acute PE patients, which in turn could lead to the optimization of acute PE management. Methods We performed a multicenter, non-interventional retrospective post hoc analysis based on a prospectively collected cohort including consecutive confirmed acute PE stratified per ESC guidelines. We first identified which of three eGFR formulae most accurately predicted death. Changes in global model fit, discrimination, calibration and reclassification parameters were evaluated with the addition of eGFR to the prognostic model. Results Among 1943 patients (mean age 67.3 (17.1), 50.4% women), 107 (5.5%) had died at 30 days. The 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (eGFRMDRD4) formula predicted death most accurately. In total, 477 patients (24.5%) had eGFRMDRD4 < 60 ml/min. Observed mortality was higher for intermediate–low-risk and high-risk PE in patients with versus without renal dysfunction. The addition of eGFRMDRD4 information improved model fit, discriminatory capacity, and calibration of the ESC model. Reclassification parameters were significantly increased, yielding 18% reclassification of predicted mortality (p < 0.001). Predicted mortality reclassifications across risk categories were as follows: 63.1% from intermediate–low risk to eGFR-defined intermediate–high risk, 15.8% from intermediate–high risk to eGFR-defined intermediate–low risk, and 21.0% from intermediate–high risk to eGFR-defined high risk. External validation in a cohort of 14,234 eligible patients from the RIETE registry confirmed our findings with a significant improvement of Harrell’s C index and reclassification parameters. Conclusion The addition of eGFRMDRD4-derived renal dysfunction on top of the prognostic algorithm led to risk reclassification within the intermediate- and high-risk PE categories. The impact of risk stratification integrating renal dysfunction on therapeutic management for acute PE requires further studies.

scholarly journals Renal dysfunction in patients with pulmonary embolism: data from the SIRENA register

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (2S) ◽  
pp. 4422
Author(s):  
M. V. Menzorov ◽  
V. V. Filimonova ◽  
A. D. Erlikh ◽  
O. L. Barbarash ◽  
S. A. Berns ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Renal Dysfunction ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Russian Population ◽  
Hospital Death ◽  
Death Risk ◽  
Risk Of Death

Aim. To assess the prevalence, severity and prognostic value of renal dysfunction (RD) in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE) of the Russian population, as well as to determine the RD significance as a marker that improves the predictive ability of current risk stratification systems.Material and methods. From April 2018 to April 2019, patients hospitalized due to PE were sequentially included in the Russian multicenter observational prospective registry SIRENA. RD was diagnosed at a glomerular filtration rate (GFR) <60 ml/ min/1,73 m2. Risk of early (hospital or 30-day) death was stratified in accordance with the current 2019 ESC Clinical Guidelines. During the study, we analyzed inpatient mortality and complication rate.Results. A total of 604 patients (men, 293 (49%); women, 311 (51%)) were in the study. RD was detected in 320 (53%) patients, while severe dysfunction — in 63 (10%) ones. In addition, 71 (12%) patients had high death risk, 364 (61%) — intermediate, 164 (27%) — low. During hospitalization, 107 (18%) patients died, including 32% from the high-risk group, 20% — moderate, and 7% — low. RD in the deceased patients was diagnosed more often, while GFR <50 ml/min/1,73 m2 reliably predicted hospital mortality (sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 72%; AUC=0,72; p<0,001). In patients with simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI) of 0 and ≥ 1, the presence of RD led to at least a 2-fold increase in mortality. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that RD is a predictor of in-hospital mortality (hazard ratio (HR), 3,41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2,15-5,41; p<0,001), regardless of the presence of death risk reclassifies, such as high troponin (HR, 1,31; 95% CI: 0,80-2,14; p=0,28) and right ventricular dysfunction (HR, 1,23; 95% CI: 0,74-2,04; p=0,42).Conclusion. In patients with PE of the Russian population, there is a high incidence of RD, which is diagnosed in every second patient and is severe in 10% of cases. The presence of RD is associated with a significant increase in in-hospital mortality, while the risk of death increases with a decrease in GFR. The addition of RD, considered as a decrease in the estimated GFR <60 ml/min/1,73 m2, to the sPESI improves risk stratification and allows identification of patients at high risk of in-hospital death.

Impact of polyvascular disease and renal dysfunction on cardiovascular outcomes in diabetes: post hoc analyses from EMPA-REG OUTCOME

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Verma ◽  
C.D Mazer ◽  
S.E Inzucchi ◽  
C Wanner ◽  
A.P Ofstad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Function ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Renal Dysfunction ◽  
Kidney Function ◽  
Treatment Effect ◽  
Impaired Renal Function ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Artery Disease ◽  
Post Hoc

Abstract Background Individuals with polyvascular disease and impaired renal function are at high risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, but this relationship is not well investigated in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Furthermore, the impact of polyvascular disease plus renal dysfunction on the risk for hospitalisation for heart failure (HHF) remains unclear. Purpose We investigated this in a post hoc analysis of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial in which empagliflozin reduced risk of CV death and HHF versus placebo in people with T2D and vascular disease. In addition, we explored the treatment effect of empagliflozin on CV, HF and mortality outcomes across the spectrum of baseline polyvascular disease and impaired renal function. Methods Patients with T2D, CV disease and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ≥30 ml/min/1.73 m2 received empagliflozin 10 mg, 25 mg, or placebo. Vascular beds (VBs) were defined as coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, and cerebrovascular disease (Fig). By use of Cox regression, we explored the association between baseline eGFR &lt; or ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2, with or without polyvascular disease (1 vs ≥2 VBs involved), and CV death, HHF, CV death (excl. fatal stroke)/HHF, and all-cause mortality (ACM), as well as the treatment effect of empagliflozin versus placebo on these outcomes. Results Patients with ≥2 VBs involved and eGFR &lt;60 ml/min/1.73 m2 [n=463], were slightly older (mean age 68.2 vs. 64.3 or 62.6 years), had T2D duration &gt;10 years more often (73.4% vs. 63.2% or 54.9%), and a higher HF prevalence at baseline (19.4% vs. 11.1% or 9.2%) versus those with ≥2 VBs involved and eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73 m2 [n=866], or those with only 1 VB involved regardless of eGFR [n=5630], respectively. However, characteristics were generally balanced between treatment groups. Notably, co-existing polyvascular disease and eGFR &lt;60 ml/min/1.73 m2 was strongly associated with increased risk of all outcomes. The placebo incidence rates per 1000 patient-years for CV death were 14.4 (95% CI 10.9, 18.3) and 19.6 (12.8, 27.8) in those with 1 VB involved and eGFR ≥60 or eGFR &lt;60, respectively, and 32.7 (21.7, 45.8), and 52.4 (32.9, 76.5) in those with 2 VBs and eGFR ≥60 or eGFR &lt;60 ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Importantly, empagliflozin reduced the risk for all outcomes regardless of number of VBs affected and kidney function (Fig). Conclusions Co-existing polyvascular disease and eGFR &lt;60 ml/min/1.73 m2 confer an extremely high risk of CV and all-cause mortality, and HHF. Empagliflozin lowered this risk consistently compared with placebo, regardless of polyvascular disease and impaired kidney function. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly and Company Diabetes Alliance

scholarly journals Developing and validating COVID-19 adverse outcome risk prediction models from a bi-national European cohort of 5594 patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Espen Jimenez-Solem ◽  
Tonny S. Petersen ◽  
Casper Hansen ◽  
Christian Hansen ◽  
Christina Lioma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Online Risk ◽  
The United Kingdom

AbstractPatients with severe COVID-19 have overwhelmed healthcare systems worldwide. We hypothesized that machine learning (ML) models could be used to predict risks at different stages of management and thereby provide insights into drivers and prognostic markers of disease progression and death. From a cohort of approx. 2.6 million citizens in Denmark, SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were performed on subjects suspected for COVID-19 disease; 3944 cases had at least one positive test and were subjected to further analysis. SARS-CoV-2 positive cases from the United Kingdom Biobank was used for external validation. The ML models predicted the risk of death (Receiver Operation Characteristics—Area Under the Curve, ROC-AUC) of 0.906 at diagnosis, 0.818, at hospital admission and 0.721 at Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Similar metrics were achieved for predicted risks of hospital and ICU admission and use of mechanical ventilation. Common risk factors, included age, body mass index and hypertension, although the top risk features shifted towards markers of shock and organ dysfunction in ICU patients. The external validation indicated fair predictive performance for mortality prediction, but suboptimal performance for predicting ICU admission. ML may be used to identify drivers of progression to more severe disease and for prognostication patients in patients with COVID-19. We provide access to an online risk calculator based on these findings.

The prognostic efficacy of beta2-microglobulin in acute pulmonary embolism

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 52-59
Author(s):  
Sotirios Kakavas ◽  
◽  
Aggeliki Papanikolaou ◽  
Evangelos Balis ◽  
Evgenios Metaxas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
C Reactive Protein ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Preliminary Study ◽  
Wbc Count ◽  
A Prospective Study ◽  
Acute Pe

Our aim was to prospectively assess the prognostic value of beta2- microglobulin (b2-M) in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). We conducted a prospective study of 109 patients admitted in a pulmonary clinic due to acute PE. A panel of inflammatory markers including b2-M white blood cell (WBC) count and C-reactive protein (CRP) was determined for each patient. In this preliminary study, baseline b2-M levels significantly correlated with the impairment of oxygenation and with all the parameters that are used for the early risk stratification of patients. In multivariate analysis, patients’ age and baseline b2-M levels were significantly associated with an increased risk of death. These findings require further prospective validation.

scholarly journals Upper extremity deep venous thrombosis: risk factors, diagnosis, treatment

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-32
Author(s):  
Camelia C. DIACONU ◽  
◽  
Mădălina ILIE ◽  
Mihaela Adela IANCU ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Venous Thrombosis ◽  
Deep Venous Thrombosis ◽  
Upper Extremity ◽  
Brachiocephalic Vein ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Thrombosis Risk ◽  
Effort Thrombosis

Upper extremity deep venous thrombosis is a condition with increasing prevalence, with high risk of morbidity and mortality, due to embolic complications. In the majority of the cases, thrombosis involves more than one venous segment, most frequently being affected the subclavian vein, followed by internal jugular vein, brachiocephalic vein and basilic vein. Upper extremity deep venous thrombosis in patients without risk factors for thrombosis is called primary deep venous thrombosis and includes idiopathic thrombosis and effort thrombosis. Deep venous thrombosis of upper extremity is called secondary when there are known risk factors and it is encountered mainly in older patients, with many comorbidities. The positive diagnosis is established only after paraclinical and imaging investigations, ultrasonography being the most useful diagnostic method. The most important complication, with high risk of death, is pulmonary embolism. Treatment consists in anticoagulant therapy, for preventing thrombosis extension and pulmonary embolism.

scholarly journals Pulmonary embolism in old age: usefulness of risk stratification in clinical decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlo Bova ◽  
Vitaliano Spagnuolo ◽  
Alfonso Noto
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Clinical Status ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Common Disease ◽  
Early Complications ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Of Death

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a common disease with a not negligible short-term risk of death, in particular in the elderly. An adequate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with PE may guide decision-making in terms of the intensity of the initial treatment during the acute phase. Patients with shock or persistent hypotension are at high risk of early mortality and may benefit from immediate reperfusion. Several tools are available to define the short-term prognosis of hemodynamically stable patients. The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI) score, and the simplified PESI score are particularly useful for identifying patients at low risk of early complications who might be safely treated at home. The identification of patients who are hemodynamically stable at diagnosis but are at a high risk of early complications is more challenging. Current guidelines recommend a multi-parametric prognostic algorithm based on the clinical status, biomarkers and imaging tests. However an aggressive treatment in hemodynamically stable patients is still controversial.

Atrial fibrillation in acute pulmonary embolism: prognostic considerations

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 308-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sérgio Nuno Craveiro Barra ◽  
Luís Vilardouro Paiva ◽  
Rui Providência ◽  
Andreia Fernandes ◽  
António Leitão Marques
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Previous History ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Prognostic Role ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
History Of ◽  
Acute Pe

AimsAlthough it is accepted that atrial fibrillation (AF) may be both the contributing factor and the consequence of pulmonary embolism (PE), data on the prognostic role of AF in patients with acute venous thromboembolism are scarce. Our aim was to study whether AF had a prognostic role in patients with acute PE.MethodsRetrospective cohort study involving 270 patients admitted for acute PE. Collected data: past medical history, analytic/gasometric parameters, admission ECG and echocardiogram, thoracic CT angiography. Patients followed for 6 months. An analysis was performed in order to clarify whether history of AF, irrespective of its timing, helps predict intrahospital, 1-month and 6-month all-cause mortality.ResultsPatients with history of AF, irrespective of its timing (n=57, 21.4%), had higher intrahospital (22.8% vs 13.1%, p=0.052, OR 2.07, 95% CI 0.98 to 4.35), 1-month (35.1% vs 16.9%, p=0.001, OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.61 to 6.21) and 6-month (45.6% vs 17.4%, p<0.001, OR 4.67, 95% CI 2.37 to 9.21) death rates. The prognostic power of AF was independent of age, NT-proBNP values, renal function and admission blood pressure and heart rate and additive to mortality prediction ability of simplified PESI (AF: p=0.021, OR 2.31, CI 95% 1.13 to 4.69; simplified PESI: p=0.002, OR 1.47, CI 95% 1.15 to 1.89). The presence of AF at admission added prognostic value to previous history of AF in terms of 1-month and 6-month all-cause mortality prediction, although it did not increase risk for intrahospital mortality.ConclusionsThe presence of AF, irrespective of its timing, may independently predict mortality in patients with acute PE. These data should be tested and validated in prospective studies using larger cohorts.

scholarly journals Accurate and efficient non-invasive strategy for early identification of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension after acute pulmonary embolism (InShape II study)

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Klok ◽  
G.J.A.M Boon ◽  
Y.M Ende-Verhaar ◽  
R Bavalia ◽  
M Delcroix ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Pulmonary Hypertension ◽  
Acute Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
Diagnostic Delay ◽  
Chronic Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Total Period ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Thromboembolic Pulmonary Hypertension ◽  
Acute Pe

Abstract Background The current diagnostic delay of chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH) after acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is unacceptably long exceeding 1 year, causing loss of quality-adjusted life years and excess mortality. Validated screening strategies to diagnose CTEPH earlier are lacking. Importantly, performing echocardiography in all PE patients for this purpose has a low diagnostic yield, is associated with overdiagnosis and is not cost-effective. Moreover, expertise in performing high-quality PH-dedicated echocardiograms may not be available outside expert centers. Aim To validate a simple screening strategy aimed at identifying CTEPH early in the course after acute PE, avoiding echocardiography if possible (Figure 1). Methods In this prospective, international, multicenter management study, consecutive PE survivors were managed according to the predefined algorithm starting three months after acute PE. All were followed for a total period of two years. The study protocol was approved by all local IRBs and all patients provided informed consent. Results 424 patients were included across three European countries (Table 1). Following the algorithm, CTEPH was considered excluded in 343 (81%) patients based on clinical pre-test probability assessment by the “CTEPH prediction score”, evaluation of symptoms and application of the “CTEPH rule-out criteria” (Figure 1); only 19% was subjected to echocardiography. Only 1 of 343 patients managed without echocardiography was diagnosed with CTEPH, 10 months after initial PE, for a failure rate of 0.29% (95% CI 0–1.6%). Overall, 13 patients were diagnosed with CTEPH (incidence 3.1%), of whom 10 within 4 months after PE diagnosis. Conclusions The algorithm accurately ruled out CTEPH and avoided echocardiography in 81% of patients. The vast majority of CTEPH cases were identified early in the course of acute PE which is a considerable improvement compared to current clinical practice with an economic use of healthcare resources. Figure 1. Study flowchart Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): This study was supported by unrestricted grants from Bayer/Merck Sharp & Dohme (MSD) and Actelion Pharmaceuticals Ltd. F.A. Klok and G.J.A.M. Boon were supported by the Dutch Heart Foundation (2017T064).

scholarly journals In-hospital and short-term predictors of mortality in patients with intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-327
Author(s):  
Gulay Gök ◽  
Mehmet Karadağ ◽  
Tufan Çinar ◽  
Zekeriya Nurkalem ◽  
Dursun Duman
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Congestive Heart Failure ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Medical Records ◽  
Pulmonary Angiography ◽  
Albumin Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Acute Pe

Introduction: The aim of this study was to evaluate the in-hospital and short-term predictive factors of mortality in intermediate-high risk acute pulmonary embolism (PE) patients with right ventricle (RV)dysfunction and myocardial injury. Methods: In this retrospective study, the medical records of 187 patients with a diagnosis of intermediate high risk acute PE were evaluated. A contrast-enhanced multi-detector pulmonary angiography was used to confirm diagnosis in all cases. All-cause mortality was determined by obtaining both in hospital and 30 days follow-up data of patients from medical records. Results: During the in-hospital stay (9.5±4.72 days), 7 patients died, resulting in an acute PE related in-hospital mortality of 3.2%. Admission heart rate (HR), (Odds ratio (OR), 1.028 95% Confidence interval (CI), 0.002-1.121; P = 0.048) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR, 1.028 95% CI, 0.002-1.016; P = 0.044) were found to be independent predictors for in-hospital mortality in a multi variate logistic regression analysis. In total, 32 patients (20.9%) died during 30 days follow-up.The presence of congestive heart failure (OR, 0.015, 95%CI, 0.001-0.211; P = 0.002) and dementia (OR, 0.029, 95%CI,0.002-0.516; P = 0.016) as well as low albumin level (OR, 0.049 95%CI, 0.006-0.383; P = 0.049) were associated with 30 days mortality. Conclusion: HR and BUN were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality and the presence of congestive heart failure, dementia, and low albumin levels were associated with higher 30 days mortality.

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