scholarly journals Biofuels and land-use changes: searching for the top model

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre M. Nassar ◽  
Leila Harfuch ◽  
Luciane C. Bachion ◽  
Marcelo R. Moreira
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Biofuel Production ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Green House Gas ◽  
Biofuel Policies

The use of agricultural-based biofuels has expanded. Discussions on how to assess green house gas (GHG) emissions from biofuel policies, specifically on (non-observed) land-use change (LUC) effects involve two main topics: (i) the limitations on the existing methodologies, and (ii) how to isolate the effects of biofuels. This paper discusses the main methodologies currently used by policy-makers to take decisions on how to quantify LUCs owing to biofuel production expansion. It is our opinion that the concerns regarding GHG emissions associated with LUCs should focus on the agricultural sector as a whole rather than concentrating on biofuel production. Actually, there are several limitations of economic models and deterministic methodologies for simulating and explaining LUCs resulting from the expansion of the agricultural sector. However, it is equally true that there are avenues of possibilities to improve models and make them more accurate and precise in order to be used for policy-making. Models available need several improvements to reach perfection. Any top model requires a concentration of interdisciplinary designers in order to replicate empirical evidence and capture correctly the agricultural sector dynamics for different countries and regions. Forgetting those limitations means that models will be used for the wrong purposes.

scholarly journals Biofuel production and soil GHG emissions after land-use change to switchgrass and giant reed in the U.S. Southeast

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e00125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Nocentini ◽  
John Field ◽  
Andrea Monti ◽  
Keith Paustian
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Biofuel Production ◽  
Giant Reed ◽  
The U.S

MODELING LAND-USE CHANGE IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS IN THE GTAP-BIO FRAMEWORK

2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1250015 ◽  
Author(s):  
ALLA A. GOLUB ◽  
THOMAS W. HERTEL
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Biofuel Production ◽  
Cge Models

This paper reviews an analysis of land use change impacts of expanded biofuel production with GTAP-BIO computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It describes the treatment of energy substitution, the role of biofuel by-products, specification of bilateral trade, the determination of land cover changes in response to increased biofuel feedstock production, and changes in crop yields – both at the intensive and extensive margins. The paper responds to some of the criticisms of GTAP-BIO and provides insights into the sensitivity of land use change and GHG emissions to changes in key parameters and assumptions. In particular, it considers an alternative specification of acreage response that takes into account the degree of land heterogeneity within agro-ecological zone (AEZ) for different AEZs and countries. The paper concludes with the discussion of alternative specifications of land mobility across uses employed in CGE models and the agenda for further research to narrow parametric and structural uncertainty to improve the model's performance.

LAND-USE CHANGE AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE FAPRI-CARD MODEL SYSTEM: ADDRESSING BIAS AND UNCERTAINTY

2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1250014 ◽  
Author(s):  
AMANI E. ELOBEID ◽  
MIGUEL A. CARRIQUIRY ◽  
JACINTO F. FABIOSA
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Viable Approach ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Impact

Even with a normalized and standardized biofuel shock, the wide range of land-use change estimates and their associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have raised concern on the adequacy of existing agricultural models in this new area of analysis. In particular, reducing bias and improving precision of impact estimates are of primary concern to policy makers. This paper provides a detailed overview of the FAPRI-CARD agricultural modeling system, with particular emphasis on the modifications recently introduced to reduce bias in the results. We illustrate the impact of these new model features using the example of the new yield specification that now includes updated trend parameter, intensification and extensification effects, and a spatially disaggregated Brazil specification. The paper also provides a taxonomy of the many types of uncertainty surrounding any analysis, including parameter-coefficient uncertainty and exogenous variable uncertainty, identifying where specific types of uncertainty originate, and how they interact. Finally, FAPRI-CARD's long experience in using stochastic analysis is presented as a viable approach in addressing uncertainty in the analysis of changes in the agricultural sector, associated land-use change, and impacts on GHG emissions.

MODELING LAND-USE CHANGES IN A GLOBAL CGE: ASSESSING THE EU BIOFUEL MANDATES WITH THE MIRAGE-BioF MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 03 (03) ◽  
pp. 1250017 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID LABORDE ◽  
HUGO VALIN
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
The Past ◽  
Biofuel Policies ◽  
Cge Modeling ◽  
Biofuels Policy ◽  
The Eu

Evaluation of indirect land-use changes due to biofuels has been very controversial over the past few years, as doubts have arisen about the environmental benefits of growing crops for use as a substitute for fossil fuels. This paper presents an overview of the MIRAGE-BioF CGE modeling approach to biofuel policies assessment. Our framework introduces new innovative features that strengthen the relevance of the methodology. In particular, a more detailed and consistent database has been developed to represent the sectors and substitution mechanisms at play. Moreover, the model used has been improved in several important ways to better reproduce the agricultural supply function and land-use change. However, we also emphasize the critical uncertainties that prevent us from being able to provide a precise two-digit figure on the extent of land-use change and associated emissions. We illustrate these efforts with the case of EU biofuel mandates implications. We show that emissions from the current national targets in the EU could lead to an indirect effect of land-use expansion ranging from 1 ha per TJ consumed to 12 ha per TJ with a median value of 3.4 ha per TJ. The associated emissions in a 20-year period would range from 10 gCO2 /MJ to 115 gCO2 /MJ, with a median value of 38 gCO2/MJ . These results seriously question the sustainability of the current EU biofuels policy and emphasize the even more dramatic effect of a biodiesel-oriented EU biofuel program, which was found to emit two times more than an EU ethanol-oriented program.

scholarly journals Policy challenges for food, energy and environmental security

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
András Nábrádi ◽  
József Popp
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biofuel Production ◽  
Advanced Technologies ◽  
Biofuel Policies ◽  
Feedstock Production ◽  
Effects Of Land Use ◽  
Ghg Savings

Limited land is available globally to grow crops for food and fuel. There are direct and indirect pressures on forests and other lands to be converted from growing food for feedstock to be used for biofuel production. The balance of evidence indicates there will probably be sufficient appropriate land available to meet demands for both food and fuel, but this needs to be confirmed before global supply of biofuel is allowed to increase significantly. There is a future for a sustainable biofuels industry, but feedstock production must avoid encroaching on agricultural land that would otherwise be used for food production. And while advanced technologies offer significant potential for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) savings through biofuels, these will be offset if feedstock production uses existing agricultural land and prevents land-use change. GHG savings can be achieved by using feedstock grown mainly on marginal land or that does not use land, such as wastes and residues. To ensure that biofuels deliver net GHG benefits, governments should amend, but not abandon, their biofuel policies in recognition of the dangers from indirect effects of land-use changes. Large areas of uncertainty remain in the overall impacts and benefits of biofuels. International action is needed in order to improve data, models and controls, and to understand and to manage effects.

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽  
Eko Sediyono ◽  
Kristoko Dwi Hartomo
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Moran’S I ◽  
Complete Spatial Randomness ◽  
Moran's I ◽  
Global Moran’S I ◽  
Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

scholarly journals Land-Use Change Impacts from Sustainable Hydropower Production in EU28 Region: An Empirical Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 4599
Author(s):  
Mohd Alsaleh ◽  
Muhammad Mansur Abdulwakil ◽  
Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Use ◽  
European Union ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Hydropower Production

Under the current European Union (EU) constitution approved in May 2018, EU countries ought to guarantee that estimated greenhouse-gas releases from land use, land-use change, or forestry are entirely compensated by an equivalent accounted removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air during the period between 2021 and 2030. This study investigates the effect of sustainable hydropower production on land-use change in the European Union (EU28) region countries during 1990–2018, using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The results revealed that land-use change incline with an increase in hydropower energy production. In addition, economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and population density are found to be increasing land-use changes, while institutional quality is found to be decreasing land-use change significantly. The finding implies that land-use change in EU28 region countries can be significantly increased by mounting the amount of hydropower energy production to achieve Energy Union aims by 2030. This will finally be spread to combat climate change and environmental pollution. The findings are considered robust as they were checked with DOLS and pooled OLS. The research suggests that the EU28 countries pay attention to the share of hydropower in their renewable energy combination to minimize carbon releases. Politicians and investors in the EU28 region ought to invest further in the efficiency and sustainability of hydropower generation to increase its production and accessibility without further degradation of forest and agricultural conditions. The authorities of the EU28 region should emphasize on efficiency and sustainability of hydropower energy with land-use management to achieve the international commitments for climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development, reduce dependence on fossil fuel, and energy insecurity.

scholarly journals Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3473
Author(s):  
Yong Lai ◽  
Guangqing Huang ◽  
Shengzhong Chen ◽  
Shaotao Lin ◽  
Wenjun Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Landscape Connectivity ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Research Result ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Buffer Zones ◽  
Conflict Zones ◽  
Land Use Dynamics

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter H. Verburg ◽  
Žiga Malek ◽  
Sean P. Goodwin ◽  
Cecilia Zagaria
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Environmental Modeling ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Regional Modelling ◽  
Model Application ◽  
Climatic Regions ◽  
Single Region

The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.

scholarly journals Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Ward ◽  
H. Renssen ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
R. T. van Balen ◽  
J. Vandenberghe
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
High Flow ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Strong Increase ◽  
Historical Sources

Abstract. In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

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