MODELING LAND-USE CHANGES IN A GLOBAL CGE: ASSESSING THE EU BIOFUEL MANDATES WITH THE MIRAGE-BioF MODEL

Evaluation of indirect land-use changes due to biofuels has been very controversial over the past few years, as doubts have arisen about the environmental benefits of growing crops for use as a substitute for fossil fuels. This paper presents an overview of the MIRAGE-BioF CGE modeling approach to biofuel policies assessment. Our framework introduces new innovative features that strengthen the relevance of the methodology. In particular, a more detailed and consistent database has been developed to represent the sectors and substitution mechanisms at play. Moreover, the model used has been improved in several important ways to better reproduce the agricultural supply function and land-use change. However, we also emphasize the critical uncertainties that prevent us from being able to provide a precise two-digit figure on the extent of land-use change and associated emissions. We illustrate these efforts with the case of EU biofuel mandates implications. We show that emissions from the current national targets in the EU could lead to an indirect effect of land-use expansion ranging from 1 ha per TJ consumed to 12 ha per TJ with a median value of 3.4 ha per TJ. The associated emissions in a 20-year period would range from 10 gCO2 /MJ to 115 gCO2 /MJ, with a median value of 38 gCO2/MJ . These results seriously question the sustainability of the current EU biofuels policy and emphasize the even more dramatic effect of a biodiesel-oriented EU biofuel program, which was found to emit two times more than an EU ethanol-oriented program.

Download Full-text

Biofuels and land-use changes: searching for the top model

Interface Focus ◽

10.1098/rsfs.2010.0043 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 224-232 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

Andre M. Nassar ◽

Leila Harfuch ◽

Luciane C. Bachion ◽

Marcelo R. Moreira

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Policy Making ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Ghg Emissions ◽

Biofuel Production ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Green House Gas ◽

Biofuel Policies

The use of agricultural-based biofuels has expanded. Discussions on how to assess green house gas (GHG) emissions from biofuel policies, specifically on (non-observed) land-use change (LUC) effects involve two main topics: (i) the limitations on the existing methodologies, and (ii) how to isolate the effects of biofuels. This paper discusses the main methodologies currently used by policy-makers to take decisions on how to quantify LUCs owing to biofuel production expansion. It is our opinion that the concerns regarding GHG emissions associated with LUCs should focus on the agricultural sector as a whole rather than concentrating on biofuel production. Actually, there are several limitations of economic models and deterministic methodologies for simulating and explaining LUCs resulting from the expansion of the agricultural sector. However, it is equally true that there are avenues of possibilities to improve models and make them more accurate and precise in order to be used for policy-making. Models available need several improvements to reach perfection. Any top model requires a concentration of interdisciplinary designers in order to replicate empirical evidence and capture correctly the agricultural sector dynamics for different countries and regions. Forgetting those limitations means that models will be used for the wrong purposes.

Download Full-text

ARAHAN PENGENDALIAN PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN MARKOV - CELLULAR AUTOMATA DI KABUPATEN CIANJUR

Jurnal Tataloka ◽

10.14710/tataloka.18.4.211-221 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 211

Author(s):

Rani Yudarwati ◽

Santun R.P Sitorus ◽

Khursatul Munibah

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Cellular Automata ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Environmental Sustainability ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Landuse Change ◽

The Past ◽

Land Use Scenario ◽

Environment Sustainability ◽

Spatial Plan

Controlling the rate of land use change is necessary due to maintaining environment sustainability. One of the efforts is studying the changes that occur in the past few years. These changes can be studied by Markov - Cellular Automata model.Cianjur is one of the regency that has a high risk of landslide hazard, so it is necessary to control land use change in order to realize environmental sustainability in accordance with the spatial plan of Cianjur regency (RTRW). The purpose of this study was to see land use changes that occurred and evaluated with the spatial plan (RTRW) and also to conduct controlling scenarios of land use changes. The analysis showed that Cianjur regency has drastically decreased in forest area up to 10,3% and landuse inconsistencyof 10,4%. The prediction results showed that landuse change without intervention would dramatically increase inconsistency up to 20,5%. Land use scenario of restoring forest could reduce inconsistency up to 16,6%.

Download Full-text

Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I

Jurnal Buana Informatika ◽

10.24002/jbi.v8i4.1446 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Matheus Supriyanto Rumetna ◽

Eko Sediyono ◽

Kristoko Dwi Hartomo

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Spatial Autocorrelation ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Geographical Information ◽

Moran’S I ◽

Complete Spatial Randomness ◽

Moran's I ◽

Global Moran’S I ◽

Spatial Randomness

Abstract. Bantul Regency is a part of Yogyakarta Special Province Province which experienced land use changes. This research aims to assess the changes of shape and level of land use, to analyze the pattern of land use changes, and to find the appropriateness of RTRW land use in Bantul District in 2011-2015. Analytical methods are employed including Geoprocessing techniques and analysis of patterns of distribution of land use changes with Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I). The results of this study of land use in 2011, there are thirty one classifications, while in 2015 there are thirty four classifications. The pattern of distribution of land use change shows that land use change in 2011-2015 has a Complete Spatial Randomness pattern. Land use suitability with the direction of area function at RTRW is 24030,406 Ha (46,995406%) and incompatibility of 27103,115 Ha or equal to 53,004593% of the total area of Bantul Regency.Keywords: Geographical Information System, Land Use, Geoprocessing, Global Moran's I, Bantul Regency. Abstrak. Analisis Perubahan Tata Guna Lahan di Kabupaten Bantul Menggunakan Metode Global Moran’s I. Kabupaten Bantul merupakan bagian dari Provinsi Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta yang mengalami perubahan tata guna lahan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji perubahan bentuk dan luas penggunaan lahan, menganalisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan, serta kesesuaian tata guna lahan terhadap RTRW yang terjadi di Kabupaten Bantul pada tahun 2011-2015. Metode analisis yang digunakan antara lain teknik Geoprocessing serta analisis pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan dengan Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I). Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah penggunaan tanah pada tahun 2011, terdapat tiga puluh satu klasifikasi, sedangkan pada tahun 2015 terdapat tiga puluh empat klasifikasi. Pola sebaran perubahan tata guna lahan menunjukkan bahwa perubahan tata guna lahan tahun 2011-2015 memiliki pola Complete Spatial Randomness. Kesesuaian tata guna lahan dengan arahan fungsi kawasan pada RTRW adalah seluas 24030,406 Ha atau mencapai 46,995406 % dan ketidaksesuaian seluas 27103,115 Ha atau sebesar 53,004593 % dari total luas wilayah Kabupaten Bantul. Kata Kunci: Sistem Informasi Georafis, tata guna lahan, Geoprocessing, Global Moran’s I, Kabupaten Bantul.

Download Full-text

Land-Use Change Impacts from Sustainable Hydropower Production in EU28 Region: An Empirical Analysis

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13094599 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 4599

Author(s):

Mohd Alsaleh ◽

Muhammad Mansur Abdulwakil ◽

Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim

Keyword(s):

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Land Use ◽

European Union ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽

Energy Production ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

The European Union ◽

Hydropower Production

Under the current European Union (EU) constitution approved in May 2018, EU countries ought to guarantee that estimated greenhouse-gas releases from land use, land-use change, or forestry are entirely compensated by an equivalent accounted removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air during the period between 2021 and 2030. This study investigates the effect of sustainable hydropower production on land-use change in the European Union (EU28) region countries during 1990–2018, using the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The results revealed that land-use change incline with an increase in hydropower energy production. In addition, economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and population density are found to be increasing land-use changes, while institutional quality is found to be decreasing land-use change significantly. The finding implies that land-use change in EU28 region countries can be significantly increased by mounting the amount of hydropower energy production to achieve Energy Union aims by 2030. This will finally be spread to combat climate change and environmental pollution. The findings are considered robust as they were checked with DOLS and pooled OLS. The research suggests that the EU28 countries pay attention to the share of hydropower in their renewable energy combination to minimize carbon releases. Politicians and investors in the EU28 region ought to invest further in the efficiency and sustainability of hydropower generation to increase its production and accessibility without further degradation of forest and agricultural conditions. The authorities of the EU28 region should emphasize on efficiency and sustainability of hydropower energy with land-use management to achieve the international commitments for climate, biodiversity, and sustainable development, reduce dependence on fossil fuel, and energy insecurity.

Download Full-text

Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13063473 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 3473

Author(s):

Yong Lai ◽

Guangqing Huang ◽

Shengzhong Chen ◽

Shaotao Lin ◽

Wenjun Lin ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Landscape Connectivity ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Research Result ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Ecological Processes ◽

Buffer Zones ◽

Conflict Zones ◽

Land Use Dynamics

Anthropogenic land-use change is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. China has been on a fast track of land-use change since the Reform and Opening-up policy in 1978. In view of the situation, this study aims to optimize land use and provide a way to effectively coordinate the development and ecological protection in China. We took East Guangdong (EGD), an underdeveloped but populous region, as a case study. We used land-use changes indexes to demonstrate the land-use dynamics in EGD from 2000 to 2020, then identified the hot spots for fast-growing areas of built-up land and simulated land use in 2030 using the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model. The results indicated that the cropland and the built-up land changed in a large proportion during the study period. Then we established the ecological security pattern (ESP) according to the minimal cumulative resistance model (MCRM) based on the natural and socioeconomic factors. Corridors, buffer zones, and the key nodes were extracted by the MCRM to maintain landscape connectivity and key ecological processes of the study area. Moreover, the study showed the way to identify the conflict zones between future built-up land expansion with the corridors and buffer zones, which will be critical areas of consideration for future land-use management. Finally, some relevant policy recommendations are proposed based on the research result.

Download Full-text

Biofuels That Cause Land-Use Change May Have Much Larger Non-GHG Air Quality Emissions Than Fossil Fuels

Environmental Science & Technology ◽

10.1021/es301851x ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 46 (19) ◽

pp. 10835-10841 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

C.-C. Tsao ◽

J. E. Campbell ◽

M. Mena-Carrasco ◽

S. N. Spak ◽

G. R. Carmichael ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Air Quality ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Fossil Fuels

Download Full-text

The Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform: IEEM Platform Technical Guides: User Guide for the IEEM-enhanced Land Use Land Cover Change Model Dyna-CLUE

10.18235/0003625 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Peter H. Verburg ◽

Žiga Malek ◽

Sean P. Goodwin ◽

Cecilia Zagaria

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Environmental Modeling ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Regional Modelling ◽

Model Application ◽

Climatic Regions ◽

Single Region

The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects modeling framework (CLUE) was developed to simulate land use change using empirically quantified relations between land use and its driving factors in combination with dynamic modeling of competition between land use types. Being one of the most widely used spatial land use models, CLUE has been applied all over the world on different scales. In this document, we demonstrate how the model can be used to develop a multi-regional application. This means, that instead of developing numerous individual models, the user only prepares one CLUE model application, which then allocates land use change across different regions. This facilitates integration with the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform for subnational assessments and increases the efficiency of the IEEM and Ecosystem Services Modeling (IEEMESM) workflow. Multi-regional modelling is particularly useful in larger and diverse countries, where we can expect different spatial distributions in land use changes in different regions: regions of different levels of achieved socio-economic development, regions with different topographies (flat vs. mountainous), or different climatic regions (dry vs humid) within a same country. Accounting for such regional differences also facilitates developing ecosystem services models that consider region specific biophysical characteristics. This manual, and the data that is provided with it, demonstrates multi-regional land use change modeling using the country of Colombia as an example. The user will learn how to prepare the data for the model application, and how the multi-regional run differs from a single-region simulation.

Download Full-text

Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10103421 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. 3421 ◽

Cited By ~ 43

Author(s):

Rahel Hamad ◽

Heiko Balzter ◽

Kamal Kolo

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Markov Chain ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Landsat 8 ◽

Chain Model ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Kurdistan Region ◽

The Past ◽

Past Trend

Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park.

Download Full-text

Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-12-159-2008 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 159-175 ◽

Cited By ~ 63

Author(s):

P. J. Ward ◽

H. Renssen ◽

J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽

R. T. van Balen ◽

J. Vandenberghe

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Flood Frequency ◽

High Flow ◽

Recurrence Time ◽

Strong Increase ◽

Historical Sources

Abstract. In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.

Download Full-text

DOMINANT FACTORS CHANGE OF LAND FUNCTION IN RAPUAN ROAD CORRIDOR UBUD BALI DUE TO TOURISM ACTIVITIES

ASTONJADRO ◽

10.32832/astonjadro.v11i1.5814 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 118

Author(s):

Ni Nyoman Samitri Putri ◽

Ngakan Ketut Acwin Dwijendra

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Rice Fields ◽

Internal Factors ◽

Tourist Destinations ◽

Tourist Accommodation ◽

Collection Methods

<p>Bali is the most popular tourist destination with Ubud one of the tourist destinations with its beautiful landscapes and rice fields. Mas Village, Ubud is one of the tourist villages that has been inaugurated by the Gianyar Regency Government based on the Decree of the Gianyar Regent Number 429/E-02/HK/2017 regarding the establishment of a Tourism Village. Jalan Rapuan which is located in Tarukan Tourism Village, Mas is one of the strategic corridors in Mas Tourism Village because it is a stretch of rice fields that has a high tourism selling value. The purpose of this study is to identify changes in land use in 2013-2021 due to tourism activities seen from the aspects that have a dominant influence on land use changes. Quantitative method is the method used with primary and secondary data collection methods and stages of analysis in the form of descriptive analysis of tourism activities in Mas Village, statistical-descriptive analysis of land use change with overlay analysis on the Jalan Rapuan corridor. The results showed that there was a change in land use along the Rapuan corridor in 2013-2021 by 14% of the non-built land to be built in the form of tourist accommodation and housing. The indicators analyzed by factor analysis were able to explain important factors, namely external factors of 31.69%, internal factors of 23.821% and regulatory factors of 17.218% with a total of factors able to explain land use change of 72.73%.</p>

Download Full-text