scholarly journals Predicting dengue outbreaks at neighbourhood level using human mobility in urban areas

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (171) ◽  
pp. 20200691
Author(s):  
Rafael Bomfim ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman ◽  
Teresa Yamana ◽  
Hernán A. Makse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mechanistic Models ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Neighbourhood Level ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
The Impact

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the Aedes genus mosquito. It causes financial burdens on public health systems and considerable morbidity and mortality. Tropical regions in the Americas and Asia are the areas most affected by the virus. Fortaleza is a city with approximately 2.6 million inhabitants in northeastern Brazil that, during the recent decades, has been suffering from endemic dengue transmission, interspersed with larger epidemics. The objective of this paper is to study the impact of human mobility in urban areas on the spread of the dengue virus, and to test whether human mobility data can be used to improve predictions of dengue virus transmission at the neighbourhood level. We present two distinct forecasting systems for dengue transmission in Fortaleza: the first using artificial neural network methods and the second developed using a mechanistic model of disease transmission. We then present enhanced versions of the two forecasting systems that incorporate bus transportation data cataloguing movement among 119 neighbourhoods in Fortaleza. Each forecasting system was used to perform retrospective forecasts for historical dengue outbreaks from 2007 to 2015. Results show that both artificial neural networks and mechanistic models can accurately forecast dengue cases, and that the inclusion of human mobility data substantially improves the performance of both forecasting systems. While the mechanistic models perform better in capturing seasons with large-scale outbreaks, the neural networks more accurately forecast outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and annual dengue time series. These results have two practical implications: they support the creation of public policies from the use of the models created here to combat the disease and help to understand the impact of urban mobility on the epidemic in large cities.

scholarly journals Observing the silent world under COVID-19 with a comprehensive impact analysis based on human mobility

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaobin Wang ◽  
Yun Tong ◽  
Yupeng Fan ◽  
Haimeng Liu ◽  
Jun Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Underdeveloped Countries ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
Human World ◽  
Dynamic Relationships ◽  
The Impact

AbstractSince spring 2020, the human world seems to be exceptionally silent due to mobility reduction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. To better measure the real-time decline of human mobility and changes in socio-economic activities in a timely manner, we constructed a silent index (SI) based on Google’s mobility data. We systematically investigated the relations between SI, new COVID-19 cases, government policy, and the level of economic development. Results showed a drastic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on increasing SI. The impact of COVID-19 on human mobility varied significantly by country and place. Bi-directional dynamic relationships between SI and the new COVID-19 cases were detected, with a lagging period of one to two weeks. The travel restriction and social policies could immediately affect SI in one week; however, could not effectively sustain in the long run. SI may reflect the disturbing impact of disasters or catastrophic events on the activities related to the global or national economy. Underdeveloped countries are more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Assessing the use of mobile phone data to describe recurrent mobility patterns in spatial epidemic models

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 160950 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cecilia Panigutti ◽  
Michele Tizzoni ◽  
Paolo Bajardi ◽  
Zbigniew Smoreda ◽  
Vittoria Colizza
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Mobile Phone ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Disease Models ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Infectious Disease Models

The recent availability of large-scale call detail record data has substantially improved our ability of quantifying human travel patterns with broad applications in epidemiology. Notwithstanding a number of successful case studies, previous works have shown that using different mobility data sources, such as mobile phone data or census surveys, to parametrize infectious disease models can generate divergent outcomes. Thus, it remains unclear to what extent epidemic modelling results may vary when using different proxies for human movements. Here, we systematically compare 658 000 simulated outbreaks generated with a spatially structured epidemic model based on two different human mobility networks: a commuting network of France extracted from mobile phone data and another extracted from a census survey. We compare epidemic patterns originating from all the 329 possible outbreak seed locations and identify the structural network properties of the seeding nodes that best predict spatial and temporal epidemic patterns to be alike. We find that similarity of simulated epidemics is significantly correlated to connectivity, traffic and population size of the seeding nodes, suggesting that the adequacy of mobile phone data for infectious disease models becomes higher when epidemics spread between highly connected and heavily populated locations, such as large urban areas.

scholarly journals The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz U.G. Kraemer ◽  
Chia-Hung Yang ◽  
Bernardo Gutierrez ◽  
Chieh-Hsi Wu ◽  
Brennan Klein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Travel History ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Lockdown related travel behavior undermines the containment of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant Kishore ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Pamela P. Martinez ◽  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTIn response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented policies of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public’s response to announcements of lockdowns - defined here as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel - will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we measure the impact of the announcement and implementation of lockdowns on human mobility patterns by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones. We find that following the announcement of lockdowns, both local and long distance movement increased. To examine how these behavioral responses to lockdown policies may contribute to epidemic spread, we developed a simple agent-based spatial model. We find that travel surges following announcements of lockdowns can increase seeding of the epidemic in rural areas, undermining the goal of the lockdown of preventing disease spread. Appropriate messaging surrounding the announcement of lockdowns and measures to decrease unnecessary travel are important for preventing these unintended consequences of lockdowns.

scholarly journals Administration of defective virus inhibits dengue transmission into mosquitoes

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarunendu Mapder ◽  
John Aaskov ◽  
Kevin Burrage
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Mosquito Pool ◽  
Bang Bang Control ◽  
Defective Virus ◽  
Successful Reduction ◽  
Transmission Models ◽  
Improve Disease Control

The host-vector shuttle and the bottleneck in dengue transmission is a significant aspect with regard to the study of dengue outbreaks. As mosquitoes require 100-1000 times more virus to become infected than human, the transmission of dengue virus from human to mosquito is a vulnerability that can be targeted to improve disease control. In order to capture the heterogeneity in the infectiousness of an infected patient population towards the mosquito pool, we calibrate a population of host-to-vector virus transmission models based on an experimentally quantified infected fraction of a mosquito population. Once the population of models is well-calibrated, we deploy a population of controls that helps to inhibit the human-to-mosquito transmission of the dengue virus indirectly by reducing the viral load in the patient body fluid. We use an optimal bang-bang control on the administration of the defective virus (transmissible interfering particles, known as TIPs) to symptomatic patients in the course of their febrile period and observe the dynamics in successful reduction of dengue spread into mosquitoes.

scholarly journals The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. e0009773
Author(s):  
Sophie A. Lee ◽  
Theodoros Economou ◽  
Rafael de Castro Catão ◽  
Christovam Barcellos ◽  
Rachel Lowe
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Urban Network ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Transmission Zone ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Temperature Suitability ◽  
South Brazil

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.

scholarly journals Human Mobility and Epidemic Evolution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Vanni ◽  
David Lambert ◽  
Luigi Palatella ◽  
Paolo Grigolini
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Infection Age ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Age Structured Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The CoViD-19 pandemic ceased to be describable by a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model when lockdowns were enforced. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 (Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) in terms of individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.

scholarly journals On the use of aggregated human mobility data to estimate the reproduction number

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Vanni ◽  
David Lambert ◽  
Luigi Palatella ◽  
Paolo Grigolini
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
Infection Age ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Risk Of Disease ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Age Structured Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe reproduction number of an infectious disease, such as CoViD-19, can be described through a modified version of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with time-dependent contact rate, where mobility data are used as proxy of average movement trends and interpersonal distances. We introduce a theoretical framework to explain and predict changes in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in terms of aggregated individual mobility and interpersonal proximity (alongside other epidemiological and environmental variables) during and after the lockdown period. We use an infection-age structured model described by a renewal equation. The model predicts the evolution of the reproduction number up to a week ahead of well-established estimates used in the literature. We show how lockdown policies, via reduction of proximity and mobility, reduce the impact of CoViD-19 and mitigate the risk of disease resurgence. We validate our theoretical framework using data from Google, Voxel51, Unacast, The CoViD-19 Mobility Data Network, and Analisi Distribuzione Aiuti.

scholarly journals Origin and evolution of dengue virus type 2 causing outbreaks in Kenya: Evidence of circulation of two cosmopolitan genotype lineages

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Solomon K Langat ◽  
Fredrick Lunyagi Eyase ◽  
Irina Maljkovic Berry ◽  
Albert Nyunja ◽  
Wallace Bulimo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Evolutionary Patterns ◽  
Origin And Evolution ◽  
Current Vaccine ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Multiple Strains ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Dengue fever (DF) is an arboviral disease caused by dengue virus serotypes 1-4 (DENV 1-4). Globally, DF incidence and disease burden have increased in the recent past. Initially implicated in a 1982 outbreak, DENV-2 recently reemerged in Kenya causing outbreaks between 2011 and 2014 and more recently 2017–8. The origin and the evolutionary patterns that may explain the epidemiological expansion and increasing impact of DENV-2 in Kenya remain poorly understood. Using whole-genome sequencing, samples collected during the 2011–4 and 2017–8 dengue outbreaks were analyzed. Additional DENV-2 genomes were downloaded and pooled together with the fourteen genomes generated in this study. Bioinformatic methods were used to analyze phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary patterns of DENV-2 causing outbreaks in Kenya. The findings from this study have shown the first evidence of circulation of two different Cosmopolitan genotype lineages of DENV-2; Cosmopolitan-I (C-I) and Cosmopolitan-II (C-II), in Kenya. Our results put the origin location of C-I lineage in India in 2011, and C-II lineage in Burkina Faso between 1979 and 2013. C-I lineage was the most isolated during recent outbreaks, thus showing the contribution of this newly emerged strain to the increased DENV epidemics in the region. Our findings, backed by evidence of recent local epidemics that have been associated with C-I in Kenya and C-II in Burkina Faso, add to the growing evidence of expanding circulation and the impact of multiple strains of DENV in the region as well as globally. Thus, continued surveillance efforts on DENV activity and its evolutionary trends in the region, would contribute toward effective control and the current vaccine development efforts.

scholarly journals Administration of Defective Virus Inhibits Dengue Transmission into Mosquitoes

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 558
Author(s):  
Tarunendu Mapder ◽  
John Aaskov ◽  
Kevin Burrage
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Virus ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Mosquito Population ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks ◽  
Bang Bang Control ◽  
Defective Virus ◽  
Successful Reduction ◽  
Transmission Models ◽  
Improve Disease Control

The host-vector shuttle and the bottleneck in dengue transmission is a significant aspect with regard to the study of dengue outbreaks. As mosquitoes require 100–1000 times more virus to become infected than human, the transmission of dengue virus from human to mosquito is a vulnerability that can be targeted to improve disease control. In order to capture the heterogeneity in the infectiousness of an infected patient population towards the mosquito population, we calibrate a population of host-to-vector virus transmission models based on an experimentally quantified infected fraction of a mosquito population. Once the population of models is well-calibrated, we deploy a population of controls that helps to inhibit the human-to-mosquito transmission of the dengue virus indirectly by reducing the viral load in the patient body fluid. We use an optimal bang-bang control on the administration of the defective virus (transmissible interfering particles (TIPs)) to symptomatic patients in the course of their febrile period and observe the dynamics in successful reduction of dengue spread into mosquitoes.

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