scholarly journals The stochastic dynamics of early epidemics: probability of establishment, initial growth rate, and infection cluster size at first detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (184) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Czuppon ◽  
Emmanuel Schertzer ◽  
François Blanquart ◽  
Florence Débarre
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Initial Growth ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Stochastic Effects ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
Threshold Size ◽  
Testing Frequency ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control

Emerging epidemics and local infection clusters are initially prone to stochastic effects that can substantially impact the early epidemic trajectory. While numerous studies are devoted to the deterministic regime of an established epidemic, mathematical descriptions of the initial phase of epidemic growth are comparatively rarer. Here, we review existing mathematical results on the size of the epidemic over time, and derive new results to elucidate the early dynamics of an infection cluster started by a single infected individual. We show that the initial growth of epidemics that eventually take off is accelerated by stochasticity. As an application, we compute the distribution of the first detection time of an infected individual in an infection cluster depending on testing effort, and estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Alpha detected in September 2020 first appeared in the UK early August 2020. We also compute a minimal testing frequency to detect clusters before they exceed a given threshold size. These results improve our theoretical understanding of early epidemics and will be useful for the study and control of local infectious disease clusters.

Unlock imagined: arts in criminal justice

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-143
Author(s):  
Alison Frater
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Personal Perspective ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Optimistic Picture ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Causes Of Crime

Starting with a personal perspective this piece outlines the place and role of the arts in the criminal justice system in the UK. It paints an optimistic picture, though an unsettling one, because the imagination and reflexiveness of the arts reveals a great deal about the causes of crime and the consequences of incarceration. It raises questions about the transforming impact of the arts: how the benefits could, and should, be optimised and why evaluations of arts interventions are consistent in identifying the need for a non-coercive, more socially focused, paradigm for rehabilitation. It concludes that the deeper the arts are embedded in the criminal justice system the greater the benefits will be, that a more interdisciplinary approach would support better theoretical understanding, and that increased capacity to deliver arts in the criminal justice system is needed to offer more people a creative pathway out of crime.

A positive psychology study and intervention on the well-being of French PhD students in biology

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Marais ◽  
Rebecca Shankland ◽  
Pascale Haag ◽  
Robin Fiault ◽  
Bridget Juniper
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Positive Psychology ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Reference Sample ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Attrition Rates ◽  
Human Costs ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control ◽  
Health And Well Being

In France, little data are available on mental health and well-being in academia, and nothing has been published about PhD students. From studies abroad, we know that doing a PhD is a difficult experience resulting in high attrition rates with significant financial and human costs. Here we focused on PhD students in biology at university Lyon 1. A first study aimed at measuring the mental health and well-being of PhD students using several generalist and PhD-specific tools. Our results on 136 participants showed that a large fraction of the PhD students experience abnormal levels of stress, depression and anxiety, and their mean well-being score is significantly lower than that of a British reference sample. French PhD student well-being is specifically affected by career uncertainty, perceived lack of progress in the PhD and perceived lack of competence, which points towards possible cultural differences of experiencing a PhD in France and the UK. In a second study, we carried out a positive psychology intervention. Comparing the scores of the test and control groups showed a clear effect of the intervention on reducing anxiety. We discuss our results and the possible future steps to improve French PhD students’ well-being.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the General Population’s Self-Reported Hand Hygiene Behaviour and Compliance in a Cross-European Setting

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2402
Author(s):  
Aaron Lawson ◽  
Marie Vaganay-Miller ◽  
Robert Cameron
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Hygiene Practice ◽  
Hygiene Behaviour ◽  
Level Of Understanding ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Travel Abroad ◽  
And Control

Every year, thousands of people from the UK travel to other countries for work and leisure. Europe, and particularly Spain, is one of the most popular travel destinations for people from the UK. However, it is known that travel to other countries can enhance the risk of communicable disease transmission from person to person, especially when a new one emerges. Adequate hand hygiene behaviour and compliance is widely accepted as being a simple, effective method in preventing the spread of communicable diseases that may be contracted during travel abroad. There is a well-established body of work investigating hand hygiene practice and compliance in community settings, but no recent studies have examined the hand hygiene practice and compliance of the general population when travelling abroad or in a cross-European context. The findings of this study indicated that most UK members of the general population when travelling abroad have a good level of understanding of the importance of adequate hand hygiene practice and compliance and its role regarding communicable disease prevention and control. As such, self-reported levels of compliance were high. Similar findings were made for Spanish members of the general population. However, while self-reported perceptions of adequacy of hand hygiene performance were relatively high, particularly among UK respondents, this was not supported by responses specifically focused on hand hygiene behaviour. However, differences in self-reported adequacy regarding the importance of handwashing versus hand drying, the number of steps that should be followed and the length of time that should be spent washing and drying hands were found for each group. This suggests that self-reported compliance may reflect intention to practice hand hygiene rather than true compliance. It also suggests that there are gaps in knowledge regarding the adequate method of hand hygiene among the cohort as a whole, and indeed these differences may account be a factor in for the high transmission rates of communicable disease when travelling abroad.

scholarly journals Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. eabf2946
Author(s):  
Louis du Plessis ◽  
John T. McCrone ◽  
Alexander E. Zarebski ◽  
Verity Hill ◽  
Christopher Ruis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Phylogenetic Analyses ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Genetic Lineage ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Lineage Structure ◽  
And Control ◽  
Lineage Diversity

The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country’s first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, while lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

scholarly journals National control laboratory independent lot testing of COVID-19 vaccines: the UK experience

npj Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola J. Rose ◽  
Paul Stickings ◽  
Silke Schepelmann ◽  
Marc J. A. Bailey ◽  
Chris Burns
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Regulatory Approval ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Discovery Research ◽  
Innovative Products ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Vaccine Availability ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe past 18 months have seen an unprecedented approach to vaccine development in the global effort against the COVID-19 pandemic. The process from discovery research, through clinical trials and regulatory approval often takes more than 10 years. However, the critical need to expedite vaccine availability in the pandemic has meant that new approaches to development, manufacturing, and regulation have been required: this has necessitated many stages of product development, clinical trials, and manufacturing to be undertaken in parallel at a global level. Through the development of these innovative products, the world has the best chance of finding individual, or combinations of, vaccines that will provide adequate protection for the world’s population. Despite the huge scientific and regulatory achievements and significant investment to accelerate vaccine availability, it is essential that safety measures are not compromised. Here we focus on the post regulatory approval testing by independent laboratories that provides an additional assurance of the safety and quality of a product, with an emphasis on the UK experience through the National Institute for Biological Standards and Control (NIBSC), an expert centre of the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA).

Regulating Religious Broadcasting

1992 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 287-304
Author(s):  
Ian Leigh
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Technological Advance ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Religious Expression ◽  
Satellite Broadcasting ◽  
Religious Broadcasting ◽  
The Creation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
A Minor ◽  
And Control

The broadcasting world is currently undergoing a revolution. The new technologies of cable and, more importantly, satellite broadcasting have brought within reach an enormous potential expansion and diversity in broadcasting. The Broadcasting Act 1990 is the government's response to the challenge, creating a mostly new regulatory framework. Alongside technological advance there has been a growing concern with regulating programme quality, as the creation of the Broadcasting Standards Commission (placed by Pt. V of the Act on a statutory footing) bears witness. A minor, but not insignificant, place in these cross-currents of ferment is occupied by religious broadcasting. This article seeks to place the controls and duties relating to religious broadcasting under the new regime within the context of its history in the UK and to consider the extent to which the new legal and administrative controls achieve an acceptable balance between religious expression and control of standards.

Genetic Drift in an Infinite Population: The Pseudohitchhiking Model

Genetics ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 155 (2) ◽  
pp. 909-919 ◽  
Author(s):  
John H Gillespie
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Drift ◽  
Stochastic Dynamics ◽  
Diffusion Theory ◽  
Stochastic Effects ◽  
Stochastic Force ◽  
Infinite Population ◽  
Sample Paths ◽  
Neutral Locus ◽  
Linked Selection ◽  
Number Of Branches

Abstract Selected substitutions at one locus can induce stochastic dynamics that resemble genetic drift at a closely linked neutral locus. The pseudohitchhiking model is a one-locus model that approximates these effects and can be used to describe the major consequences of linked selection. As the changes in neutral allele frequencies when hitchhiking are rapid, diffusion theory is not appropriate for studying neutral dynamics. A stationary distribution and some results on substitution processes are presented that use the theory of continuous-time Markov processes with discontinuous sample paths. The coalescent of the pseudohitchhiking model is shown to have a random number of branches at each node, which leads to a frequency spectrum that is different from that of the equilibrium neutral model. If genetic draft, the name given to these induced stochastic effects, is a more important stochastic force than genetic drift, then a number of paradoxes that have plagued population genetics disappear.

scholarly journals A HYPOTHETICAL DESIGN TO INHIBIT COVID 19 DISEASE DISASTER BY DIAGRAMMATIC MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-324
Author(s):  
Deepanwita Deka ◽  
◽  
Avra Pratim Chowdhury ◽  
Arabinda Ghosh ◽  
Moni P Bhuyan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Disease Clusters ◽  
The World ◽  
Public Health Hazards ◽  
And Control ◽  
Present World ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
High Range

SARS-CoV-2 is a new entity in the globe studied vigorously in the present world. The estimated populations are around 47 million people who are affected by the virus and around 300,000 (16th May 2020) deaths resulted from the outbreak. The rate might keep on increasing due to the non-availability of a proper vaccine, following proper management with epidemiological studies, and displacement of contact individuals as a source of transmission in particular viral-prone regions. CoVID 19 is on its vigorous spread leading to a global impact on lots of sectors. The outreaching impacts play a role in international politics, scientific developments, and economic crises over the world, and global relations among the countries. This model attempts to determine the possible impacts and outcomes of the Pandemic over the international level and some possible ways to handle it effectively. An unpredictable catastrophe in the present scenario of the world is following a high range of public health hazards. Analytical plotted data assembles for imposing in multidisciplinary segments to cure and control morbidity, a mortality rate of disease clusters, and hotspots zone. The contagious outbreak was reprogrammed as a pandemic from Wuhan in China through the transmissible chain of human contacts. Currently, the infective chain is spreading day by day with high morbidity in the United States, Europe, Scandinavian countries, and India. The transmissible chain of the virus needs to break until any effective medicine or vaccine is launched.

scholarly journals How End-of-Life Blogs Re-Affirm the “Power to be Oneself”

2022 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gill Green
Keyword(s):  
End Of Life ◽  
Patient Empowerment ◽  
Moral Authority ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Anglo Saxon ◽  
Self Identity ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control ◽  
Terminal Diagnosis

Powerlessness generally denotes loss of control and may be experienced among those with a terminal diagnosis and, as such, empowerment is a dominant discourse in end-of-life policy in the western Anglo-Saxon world. This paper analyzes thematically blogs authored by three people with a terminal diagnosis to examine the “power to be oneself,” a concept which was identified in the “Ethics of Powerlessness” project conducted in the UK. The analysis demonstrates that the bloggers assert the “power to be themselves” which is expressed in three principal ways. Firstly, through assertion of agency to promote self-affirmation and control. Secondly, through claiming a “moral authority” expressed by providing advice not just on illness and death but also on how life should be lived. Thirdly, through discussing ideas about the future and creating a legacy. The blogs are a mechanism used to express and reinforce self-identity and to carve out a “sacred space” between life and death to nurture personal change and to project this onto a public arena. This analysis demonstrates the key role patient empowerment plays in constructing an identity with a terminal diagnosis, an element that is often overlooked in end-of-life policy.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document