scholarly journals Optimal shutdown strategies for COVID-19 with economic and mortality costs: British Columbia as a case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 202255
Author(s):  
M. T. Barlow ◽  
N. D. Marshall ◽  
R. C. Tyson
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Value Of Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Single Variable ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Pareto Optimal Front ◽  
Parameter Values

Decision makers with the responsibility of managing policy for the COVID-19 epidemic have faced difficult choices in balancing the competing claims of saving lives and the high economic cost of shutdowns. In this paper, we formulate a model with both epidemiological and economic content to assist this decision-making process. We consider two ways to handle the balance between economic costs and deaths. First, we use the statistical value of life, which in Canada is about C$7 million, to optimize over a single variable, which is the sum of the economic cost and the value of lives lost. Our second method is to calculate the Pareto optimal front when we look at the two variables—deaths and economic costs. In both cases we find that, for most parameter values, the optimal policy is to adopt an initial shutdown level which reduces the reproduction number of the epidemic to close to 1. This level is then reduced once a vaccination programme is underway. Our model also indicates that an oscillating policy of strict and mild shutdowns is less effective than a policy which maintains a moderate shutdown level.

scholarly journals Optimal shutdown strategies for COVID-19 with economic and mortality costs: BC as a case study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.T. Barlow ◽  
N.D. Marshall ◽  
R.C. Tyson
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Value Of Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Single Variable ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Pareto Optimal Front ◽  
Parameter Values

AbstractDecision makers with the responsibility of managing policy for the COVID-19 epidemic have faced difficult choices in balancing the competing claims of saving lives and the high economic cost of shutdowns. In this paper we formulate a model with both epidemiological and economic content to assist this decision making process. We consider two ways to handle the balance between economic costs and deaths. First, we use the statistical value of life, which in Canada is about C$7 million, to optimise over a single variable, which is the sum of the economic cost and the value of lives lost. Our second method is to calculate the Pareto optimal front when we look at the two variables – deaths and economic costs.In both cases we find that, for most parameter values, the optimal policy is to adopt an initial shutdown level which reduces the reproduction number of the epidemic to close to 1. This level is then reduced once a vaccination program is underway. Our model also indicates that an oscillating policy of strict and mild shutdowns is less effective than a policy which maintains a moderate shutdown level.

Integration between knowledge management and business process management and its impact on the decision making process in the construction sector: a case study of Jordan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Wasef Abuezhayeh ◽  
Les Ruddock ◽  
Issa Shehabat
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Business Process Management ◽  
Process Management ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate and explain how organizations in the construction sector can enhance their decision-making process (DMP) by practising knowledge management (KM) and business process management (BPM) activities. A conceptual framework is developed that recognises the elements that impact DMP in terms of KM and BPM. The development of this framework goes beyond current empirical work on KM in addition to BPM as it investigates a wider variety of variables that impact DMP. Design/methodology/approach A case study is undertaken in the context of the construction industry in Jordan. A theoretical framework is developed and assessment of the proposed framework was undertaken through a questionnaire survey of decision-makers in the construction sector and expert interviews. Findings The outcomes of this research provide several contributions to aid decision-makers in construction organizations. Growth in the usage of KM and BPM, in addition to the integration between them, can provide employees with task-related knowledge in the organization’s operative business processes, improve process performance, promote core competence and maximise and optimise business performance. Originality/value Through the production of a framework, this study provides a tool to enable improved decision-making. The framework generates a strong operational as well as theoretical approach to the organizational utilization of knowledge and business processes.

scholarly journals A Two Person Zero Sum Game Oriented to Integration of Objectives

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 65-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hakan Aplak ◽  
Mehmet Kabak ◽  
Erkan Köse
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Payoff Matrix ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Competitive Environments ◽  
Conflicting Objectives ◽  
Zero Sum

Abstract Decision making process is a process which includes decision makers, actors, environmental factors, objectives, strategies and criteria. In competitive environments, effectiveness of decision process depends on determining all environmental factors and evaluating them according to objectives. Decision makers aim to find optimal strategies for conflicting objectives. Game theory is an approach based on mathematics in which strategies of players are evaluated reciprocally by considering environmental effects.In this study, a two-person zero-sum game approach is presented for choosing optimal strategies of actors in competitive environment by balancing objectives reciprocally. This approach refers to evaluation of each objective, creation of decision payoff matrixes by using fuzzy logic mathematical applications and their transformation to final decision payoff matrix subsequently. Finally, optimal strategies and their probabilities are found. A military case study is presented for illustrating the application of proposed approach.

Multi-attribute Group Decision-making (MAGDM) using Fuzzy Linguistic Modeling Integrated with the VIKOR Method for Car Purchasing Model

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Vikor Method ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Purchasing Model ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

The change in the trend of transportation, increasing per capita income, expectation of better lifestyle, easy finance, and reduced cost of the automobile are some of the main factors that enable a commoner to have his/her own car. Therefore, it is essential to comprise such features in cars that offer qualities enabling the ease of consumer’s decision-making and comfort to purchase a car individually. Purchasing a car is a complicated multi-criteria decision-making problem as an individual may have different preferences for different criteria attributes. The attributes may be conflicting in nature depending on the need of the individual customer. Generally, it becomes quite difficult to assign ratings to these attributes based on numeric values. Therefore, the decision-making process relies on an idiosyncratic finding of the decision-makers which is in practice fuzzy with uncertainities. Hence, this article is a case study that deals with a hierarchy MCDM approach in accordance with the fuzzy logic and VIKOR method to solve a car purchasing problem.

scholarly journals Matrix Game with Payoffs Represented by Triangular Dual Hesitant Fuzzy Numbers

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhihui Yang ◽  
Yang Song
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Programming Models ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Matrix Game ◽  
Fuzzy Matrix ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Definition Of

Matrix Game with Payoffs RepresentedDue to the complexity of information or the inaccuracy of decision-makers’ cognition, it is difficult for experts to quantify the information accurately in the decision-making process. However, the integration of the fuzzy set and game theory provides a way to help decision makers solve the problem. This research aims to develop a methodology for solving matrix game with payoffs represented by triangular dual hesitant fuzzy numbers (TDHFNs). First, the definition of TDHFNs with their cut sets are presented. The inequality relations between two TDHFNs are also introduced. Second, the matrix game with payoffs represented by TDHFNs is investigated. Moreover, two TDHFNs programming models are transformed into two linear programming models to obtain the numerical solution of the proposed fuzzy matrix game. Furthermore, a case study is given to to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the proposed methodology. Our results also demonstrate the advantage of the proposed concept of TDHFNs.

Making Decisions in IS/IT Outsourcing

2010 ◽  
pp. 306-325
Author(s):  
Cheng-Chieh Huang ◽  
Ching-Cha Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
It Outsourcing ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Case Study Methodology ◽  
Dynamic Perspective ◽  
Strategy Transformation ◽  
Study Methodology ◽  
Outsourcing Decision

Making decisions in an IS/IT outsourcing project is complex and the outcome is unpredictable. Prior research on IS/IT outsourcing decisions simply assumed the decision-making process is rational, comprehensive and independent that is not descriptively accurate, and thus, cannot be prescriptively useful in such a complex environment. In order to gain a deeper understanding of decision-making in IS/IT outsourcing processes, this chapter creates an outsourcing decision framework, derived from a dynamic perspective, to illustrate the decision-making process and how the decisions impact outsourcing results. An in-depth case study methodology is used to interpret an e-strategy transformation outsourced project. The analysis indicates interwoven decisions, knowledge as power, decision-makers’ cognition, and ideologies should be the focus of future studies on IS/IT outsourcing.

scholarly journals A FRAMEWORK FOR THE EVALUATION OF HOTEL PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabrijela Popovic ◽  
Dragisa Stanujkic ◽  
Darjan Karabasevic
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Performance Ratings ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Property Development ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
The One ◽  
Selection Of

The main goal of the manuscript is to propose the framework that would facilitate the selection of hotel construction projects for an investment based on the application of the WS PLP method. The key reason why the WS PLP method is used is reflected in its ability to more accurately express decision-makers’ stand regarding the desired preference ratings of criteria by incorporating ppr values into the decision-making process. Also, the WS PLP method implies the introduction of the compensation coefficient, which provides a possibility of the decision-maker’s selection between an alternative that has the best matching with the preferred performance ratings expressed through ppr values and the one that has the best overall performance ratings. The applicability and effectiveness of the proposed framework are demonstrated through a real case study on the five types of the hotels that should be constructed on Kopaonik Mountain in Serbia.

scholarly journals How the state legitimizes national development projects: The Third Development Axis case study, Slovenia

2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-121
Author(s):  
Maruša Goluža ◽  
Maruška Šubic-Kovač ◽  
Drago Kos ◽  
David Bole
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
National Development ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Third ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Democratic Principles ◽  
Output Legitimacy

We analyzed planning mechanisms and evaluated their performance in achieving legitimacy in infrastructure planning in Slovenia. Planning mechanisms were divided according to the concept of input, throughput and output legitimacy. We conducted a document analysis and interviews to assess their effectiveness in achieving legitimate decisions. Although the analyzed decision-making process declaratively promoted democratic principles, the mechanisms failed to satisfactorily enhance the legitimacy of decisions. The study revealed inadequate communication approaches, both in the decision-makers' relationship with the public and within the expert discourse. Accordingly, the study argues for more genuine communication with the public and within academia to address legitimacy challenges in increasingly conflictual decision-making processes.

A Decision-Making Case Study for Community Forest Management

1988 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 254-258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul B. Crosby ◽  
James P. Barrett
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Community Forest Management ◽  
Multiple Use ◽  
Community Forest ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Management Alternatives

Abstract Community forest managers would benefit from a decision-making procedure that would help them weigh management alternatives and select one that best contributes to their goals. A matrix technique that uses a system of rating and weighing alternative impacts was applied to the decision-making process on the Rye Town Forest in Rye, NH. Using the results of a comprehensive multiple-use inventory of the forest and a survey of residents' preferences for uses of the forest, the matrix procedure aided in selecting a preferred management strategy. It encourages a systematic and objective comparison of preselected management alternatives and allows decision-makers to efficiently analyze and compare new alternatives. North. J. Appl. For. 5:254-258, December 1988.

scholarly journals Turkey and Cyprus: A Poliheuristic Analysis of Decisions during the Crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-477
Author(s):  
Özgür Özdamar ◽  
Okhan Ercİyas
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
International Relations Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Foreign Policy Analysis ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Expected Utility Maximization

Abstract The Cyprus problem is one of the most protracted and complex conflicts in the world. This article uses poliheuristic (PH) theory to analyze Turkey's decision-making during the Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974. We utilize the PH model (Mintz 1993, 2004) and its method to systematically examine the decision-making process and outcomes during the three crises. We present primary evidence from governmental archives and secondary from media sources. The two hypotheses derived from the PH literature are supported by evidence. Results confirm Turkish decision-makers employed two-stage decision-making during each crisis. In the first stage, Turkish leaders followed the noncompensatory rule and eliminated options that could incur losses. In the second stage, their calculations were more in line with expected utility maximization. Implications of the case study in terms of PH model, foreign policy analysis, and international relations theory are discussed in the conclusion.

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