Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector

2007 ◽  
Vol 365 (1857) ◽  
pp. 2117-2131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark New ◽  
Ana Lopez ◽  
Suraje Dessai ◽  
Rob Wilby
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Climate Change Information ◽  
Thames River ◽  
Adaptation Options

Climate change impacts and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a scenario-based approach, which precludes an assessment of the relative risks of particular adaptation options. Probabilistic impact assessments, especially if based on a thorough analysis of the uncertainty in an impact forecast system, enable adoption of a risk-based assessment framework. However, probabilistic impacts information is conditional and will change over time. We explore the implications of a probabilistic end-to-end risk-based framework for climate impacts assessment, using the example of water resources in the Thames River, UK. We show that a probabilistic approach provides more informative results that enable the potential risk of impacts to be quantified, but that details of the risks are dependent on the approach used in the analysis.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

scholarly journals Risks and opportunities for a Swiss hydropower company in a changing climate

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kirsti Hakala ◽  
Nans Addor ◽  
Thibault Gobbe ◽  
Johann Ruffieux ◽  
Jan Seibert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Volume Distribution ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Low Flows

Abstract. Anticipating and adapting to climate change impacts on water resources requires a detailed understanding of future hydroclimatic changes and of stakeholders' vulnerability to these changes. However, climate change impact studies are often conducted at a spatial scale that is too coarse to capture the specificity of individual catchments, and more importantly, the changes they focus on are not necessarily the changes most critical to stakeholders. While recent studies have combined hydrological and electricity market modeling, they tend to aggregate all climate impacts by focusing solely on reservoir profitability, and thereby provide limited insights into climate change adaptation. Here, we collaborated with Groupe E, a hydropower company operating several reservoirs in the Swiss pre-Alps and worked with them to produce hydroclimatic projections tailored to support their upcoming water concession negotiations. We started by identifying the vulnerabilities of their activities to climate change and then together chose streamflow and energy indices to characterize the associated risks. We provided Groupe E with figures showing the projected climate change impacts, which were refined over several meetings. The selected indices enabled us to simultaneously assess a variety of impacts induced by changes on i) the seasonal water volume distribution, ii) low flows, iii) high flows, and iv) energy demand. We were hence able to identify key opportunities (e.g., the future increase of reservoir inflow in winter, when electricity prices are historically high) and risks (e.g., the expected increase of consecutive days of low flows in summer and fall, which is likely to make it more difficult to meet residual flow requirements). This study highlights that the hydrological opportunities and risks associated with reservoir management in a changing climate depend on a range of factors beyond those covered by traditional impact studies. We also illustrate the importance of identifying stakeholder needs and using them to inform the production of climate impact projections. Our user-centered approach is transferable to other impact modeling studies, in the field of water resources and beyond.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Dairy in New York and Wisconsin: Risk Perceptions, Vulnerability, and Adaptation among Farmers and Advisors

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lane ◽  
Murdock ◽  
Genskow ◽  
Betz ◽  
Chatrchyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
New York ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Dairy Farmers ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Using Data

Climate change impacts on agriculture have been intensifying in the Northeastern and Midwestern United States. Few empirical studies have considered how dairy farmers and/or their advisors are interpreting and responding to climate impacts, risks, and opportunities in these regions. This study investigates dairy farmer and advisor views and decisions related to climate change using data from seven farmer and advisor focus groups conducted in New York and Wisconsin. The study examined how farmers and advisors perceived climate impacts on dairy farms, the practices they are adopting, and how perceived risks and vulnerability affect farmers’ decision making related to adaptation strategies. Although dairy farmers articulated concern regarding climate impacts, other business pressures, such as profitability, market conditions, government regulations, and labor availability were often more critical issues that affected their decision making. Personal experience with extreme weather and seasonal changes affected decision making. The findings from this study provide improved understanding of farmers’ needs and priorities, which can help guide land-grant researchers, Extension, and policymakers in their efforts to develop and coordinate a comprehensive strategy to address climate change impacts on dairy in the Northeast and the Midwest US.

Climate, Oceans, and the Law of Special and General Adaptation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Rashid Sumaila
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Adaptive Responses ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
General Adaptation ◽  
The Law ◽  
Adaptation Law ◽  
Private Actors ◽  
International Fisheries

This chapter describes the literature of adaptation law in the context of international ocean governance. Adaptation law consists of rules aimed at minimizing the social costs associated with human response to climate impacts. These can be used to shape the behaviour of private actors or public institutions. The law sometimes might provide incentives to make enterprises more resilient as it makes capital unnecessarily stranded during climate change. In order to illustrate the challenges of implementation in the ocean context, the chapter focuses on two examples: international fisheries and ‘mari-engineering’. International fisheries represent ongoing ocean use and regulated by a well-developed body of international law. Due to the wide range of possible climate impacts and adaptive responses, proactive changes to existing fisheries rules in anticipation of climate change fit into the category of general adaptation law, while mari-engineering is engineering the seas to slow or halt climate change impacts.

Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: the example of the climate vulnerability index

2005 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 69-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Sullivan ◽  
J. Meigh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Indicator Approach ◽  
Index Approach ◽  
Climate Vulnerability ◽  
Climate Vulnerability Index

It is known that climate impacts can have significant effects on the environment, societies and economies. For human populations, climate change impacts can be devastating, giving rise to economic disruption and mass migration as agricultural systems fail, either through drought or floods. Such events impact significantly, not only where they happen, but also in the neighbouring areas. Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change needs to be assessed, so that adaptation strategies can be developed and populations can be protected. In this paper, we address the issue of vulnerability assessment through the use of an indicator approach, the climate vulnerability index (CVI). We show how this can overcome some of the difficulties of incommensurability associated with the combination of different types of data, and how the approach can be applied at a variety of scales. Through the development of nested index values, more reliable and robust coverage of large areas can be achieved, and we provide an indication of how this could be done. While further work is required to improve the methodology through wider application and component refinement, it seems likely that this approach will have useful application in the assessment of climate vulnerability. Through its application at sub-national and community scales, the CVI can help to identify those human populations most at risk from climate change impacts, and as a result, resources can be targeted towards those most in need.

scholarly journals A Simplified Water Accounting Procedure to Assess Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for Agriculture across Different European River Basins

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Hunink ◽  
Gijs Simons ◽  
Sara Suárez-Almiñana ◽  
Abel Solera ◽  
Joaquín Andreu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Local Context ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Water Accounting

European agriculture and water policies require accurate information on climate change impacts on available water resources. Water accounting, that is a standardized documentation of data on water resources, is a useful tool to provide this information. Pan-European data on climate impacts do not recognize local anthropogenic interventions in the water cycle. Most European river basins have a specific toolset that is understood and used by local experts and stakeholders. However, these local tools are not versatile. Thus, there is a need for a common approach that can be understood by multi-fold users to quantify impact indicators based on local data and that can be used to synthesize information at the European level. Then, policies can be designed with the confidence that underlying data are backed-up by local context and expert knowledge. This work presents a simplified water accounting framework that allows for a standardized examination of climate impacts on water resource availability and use across multiple basins. The framework is applied to five different river basins across Europe. Several indicators are extracted that explicitly describe green water fluxes versus blue water fluxes and impacts on agriculture. The examples show that a simplified water accounting framework can be used to synthesize basin-level information on climate change impacts which can support policymaking on climate adaptation, water resources and agriculture.

An assessment of the climate change impacts on groundwater recharge at a continental scale using a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of GCMs

2012 ◽  
Vol 117 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 41-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell S. Crosbie ◽  
Trevor Pickett ◽  
Freddie S. Mpelasoka ◽  
Geoff Hodgson ◽  
Stephen P. Charles ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Continental Scale

Global contribution of climate variability and trends to maize yield change in observations and crop models during 1980-2010

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaomeng Yin ◽  
Guoyong Leng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Process Based Models

<p>Understanding historical crop yield response to climate change is critical for projecting future climate change impacts on yields. Previous assessments rely on statistical or process-based crop models, but each has its own strength and weakness. A comprehensive comparison of climate impacts on yield between the two approaches allows for evaluation of the uncertainties in future yield projections. Here we assess the impacts of historical climate change on global maize yield for the period 1980-2010 using both statistical and process-based models, with a focus on comparing the performances between the two approaches. To allow for reasonable comparability, we develop an emulator which shares the same structure with the statistical model to mimic the behaviors of process-based models. Results show that the simulated maize yields in most of the top 10 producing countries are overestimated, when compared against FAO observations. Overall, GEPIC, EPIC-IIASA and EPIC-Boku show better performance than other models in reproducing the observed yield variations at the global scale. Climate variability explains 42.00% of yield variations in observation-based statistical model, while large discrepancy is found in crop models. Regionally, climate variability is associated with 55.0% and 52.20% of yield variations in Argentina and USA, respectively. Further analysis based on process-based model emulator shows that climate change has led to a yield loss by 1.51%-3.80% during the period 1980-1990, consistent with the estimations using the observation-based statistical model. As for the period 1991-2000, however, the observed yield loss induced by climate change is only captured by GEPIC and pDSSAT. In contrast to the observed positive climate impact for the period 2001-2010, CLM-Crop, EPIC-IIASA, GEPIC, pAPSIM, pDSSAT and PEGASUS simulated negative climate effects. The results point to the discrepancy between process-based and statistical crop models in simulating climate change impacts on maize yield, which depends on not only the regions, but also the specific time period. We suggest that more targeted efforts are required for constraining the uncertainties of both statistical and process-based crop models for future yield predictions. </p>

scholarly journals Climate change impacts and adaptation options for the Greek agriculture in 2021–2050: A monetary assessment

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
pp. 164-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Georgopoulou ◽  
S. Mirasgedis ◽  
Y. Sarafidis ◽  
M. Vitaliotou ◽  
D.P. Lalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Adaptation Options
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document