scholarly journals Beyond ‘dangerous’ climate change: emission scenarios for a new world

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1934) ◽  
pp. 20-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Anderson ◽  
Alice Bows
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Cumulative Emission ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Copenhagen Accord ◽  
Emission Growth ◽  
Dangerous Climate Change ◽  
High Level ◽  
To Receive

The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community’s commitment to ‘hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius’. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2 ° C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2 ° C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2 ° C now more appropriately represents the threshold between ‘dangerous’ and ‘extremely dangerous’ climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy.

Aviation and climate change: confronting the challenge

2010 ◽  
Vol 114 (1158) ◽  
pp. 459-468 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bows
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Behavioural Change ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Important Player ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Operational Practices ◽  
Dangerous Climate Change

Abstract Each year greenhouse gas emissions remain high the climate mitigation and adaptation challenges grow. The economic downturn was already in train in 2008, yet concentrations of CO2 increased unabated. Without concerted effort across all sectors there will be little chance of avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’ and the aviation sector has a clear role to play. Current and forthcoming technologies, operational practices and behavioural change offer widespread opportunities for other sectors to mitigate their CO2 emissions in absolute terms, but as they do so, aviation will become an increasingly important player. By comparing a range of global cross-sector emission scenarios with existing aviation projections, this paper illustrates the importance of understanding the future context with regard to other sectors when assessing the aviation industry’s potential impact. Given growth projections for aviation and the relatively slow pace of technological change, aviation’s proportion of 2050 global CO2 emissions is low only in those global cross-sector emission scenarios where there is a high probability of ‘dangerous climate change’. For a ‘reasonable’ (>50%) chance of avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’, the most technologically radical scenarios for aviation make up 15% of global CO2 in 2050 and conventional scenarios exceed the carbon budget entirely. Only by recognising that aviation’s currently projected emissions are incompatible with avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’ can the industry fully grasp the challenge of accelerating innovation and managing demand to deliver a more sustainable route to 2050 and beyond.

Situating and Abandoning Geoengineering: A Typology of Five Responses to Dangerous Climate Change

2013 ◽  
Vol 46 (01) ◽  
pp. 23-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clare Heyward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Solar Radiation Management ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Political Issues ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Potential Strategy ◽  
Dangerous Climate Change ◽  
Radiation Management

Geoengineering, the “deliberate, large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment in order to counteract anthropogenic climate change” (Shepherd et al. 2009, 1), is attracting increasing interest. As well as the Royal Society, various scientific and government organizations have produced reports on the potential and challenge of geoengineering as a potential strategy, alongside mitigation and adaptation, to avoid the vast human and environmental costs that climate change is thought to bring (Blackstock et al. 2009; GAO 2010; Long et al. 2011; Rickels et al. 2011). “Geoengineering” covers a diverse range of proposals conventionally divided into carbon dioxide removal (CDR) proposals and solar radiation management (SRM) proposals. This article argues that “geoengineering” should not be regarded as a third category of response to climate change, but should be disaggregated. Technically, CDR and SRM are quite different and discussing them together under the rubric of geoengineering can give the impression that all the technologies in the two categories of response always raise similar challenges and political issues when this is not necessarily the case. However, CDR and SRM should not be completely subsumed into the preexisting categories of mitigation and adaptation. Instead, they can be regarded as two parts of a five-part continuum of responses to climate change. To make this case, the first section of this article discusses whether geoengineering is distinctive, and the second situates CDR and SRM in relation to other responses to climate change.

scholarly journals Climate-Smart Forestry in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 545-570
Author(s):  
Marcos Giongo ◽  
Micael Moreira Santos ◽  
Damiana Beatriz da Silva ◽  
Jader Nunes Cachoeira ◽  
Giovanni Santopuoli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Deforestation Rate ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Forest Policies ◽  
Forestry Sector ◽  
High Level

AbstractBrazil is the second largest forested country in the world with a high level of naturalness and biodiversity richness, playing a significant role in the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies to climate change. Although the Brazilian federal government is mainly responsible for the protection of natural ecosystems, the decentralization process, which demands competences of the states and municipalities, allowed the establishment of several agencies and institutions dealing with monitoring, assessment, and management of forest ecosystems through a complex and interrelated number of forest policies. Nevertheless, the deforestation rate, with a consequent loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, represents critical challenges, attracting worldwide attention. The variety of mitigation and adaptation measures adopted over the years represents viable tools to face climate change and to promote climate-smart forestry in Brazil. Notwithstanding the positive effects achieved in the last decade, a better coordination and practical implementation of climate-smart forestry strategies is required to reach nationally and internationally agreed objectives.This chapter aims to depict the Brazilian forestry sector, highlighting the management strategies adopted overtime to counteract climate change.

scholarly journals Projections of the urban and intra-urban scale thermal effects of climate change in the 21st century for cities in the Carpathian Basin

2021 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-33
Author(s):  
Tamás Gál ◽  
Nóra Skarbit ◽  
Gergely Molnár ◽  
János Unger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Thermal Characteristics ◽  
Carpathian Basin ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

This study evaluates the pattern of a nighttime climate index namely the tropical nights (Tmin ≥ 20ºC) during the 21st century in several different sized cities in the Carpathian Basin. For the modelling, MUKLIMO_3 microclimatic model and the cuboid statistical method were applied. In order to ensure the proper representation of the thermal characteristics of an urban landscape, the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system was used as landuse information. For this work, LCZ maps were produced using WUDAPT methodology. The climatic input of the model was the Carpatclim dataset for the reference period (1981–2010) and EURO-CORDEX regional model outputs for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). As results show, there would be a remarkable increase in the number of tropical nights along the century, and there is a clearly recognizable increase owing to urban landform. In the near past, the number of the index was 6–10 nights higher in the city core than the rural area where the number of this index was negligible. In the near future this urban-rural trend is the same, however, there is a slight increase (2–5 nights) in the index in city cores. At the end of the century, the results of the two emission scenarios become distinct. In the case of RCP4.5 the urban values are about 15–25 nights, what is less stressful compared to the 30–50 nights according to RCP8.5. The results clearly highlight that the effect of urban climate and climate change would cause serious risk for urban dwellers, therefore it is crucial to perform climate mitigation and adaptation actions on both global and urban scales.

scholarly journals Students’ Knowledge of Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation in the Context of Constructive Hope

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Ilkka Ratinen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Secondary Students ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Meaning Making ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
High Level ◽  
General Climate ◽  
Change Mitigation

Humanity is living in a climate emergency where climate change should be significantly mitigated; additionally, greater efforts should be made to adapt to it. To date, relatively little research has been carried out on young people’s skills in terms of them mitigating and, in particular, adapting to the changes caused by climate change. The complex climate change issues of mitigation and adaptation are conceptually difficult for children because climate change is not directly evidenced in their daily lives. This study focuses on looking at mitigation and adaptation from the perspective of children. Meaning-making coping strategies enable the maintenance of constructive hope regarding climate change. In the present study, elementary and secondary students (n = 950) responded to an online questionnaire. Statistical methods were used to gather data on how students’ general knowledge of climate change and their mitigation and adaptation knowledge predicted their constructive hope regarding climate change. This study reveals that the students had a relatively high level of constructive hope and that general climate change knowledge predicted students’ constructive hope well.

scholarly journals Aswan High Dam Reservoir management system

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1491-1510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noha Donia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Management System ◽  
Reservoir Management ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Dam Reservoir ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Operation Rules ◽  
Dam Operation ◽  
Aswan High Dam

The Aswan High Dam Reservoir management system was developed to simulate dam operation under varying boundary conditions taking as example climate change and Millennium Dam construction, and analyze the optimal operation rules of the reservoir taking into account a large number of objectives, including hydropower production and water supply for irrigation purposes. The developed system runs on Windows platforms and comprises three basic modules: a user-friendly graphical interface managing all graphic features, a computational engine where all the algorithms are implemented, and a database and files module managing hydrological and operational data. The developed model was calibrated. The future hydrologic scenarios developed have been used to assess the expected impacts of potential climate change (baseline and three periods with two global emission scenarios) and the Millennium Dam. The new operation rules were used for scenarios analysis. It was concluded that overall applying the new operation rules will decrease the percentage of occurrence of minimum water levels. Also, the Millennium Dam will increase the percentage of occurrence of minimum water levels. Finally, the period III (2070–2099) for the two global emission scenarios is very critical for the dam operation.

Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends

2008 ◽  
Vol 366 (1882) ◽  
pp. 3863-3882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Anderson ◽  
Alice Bows
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Cumulative Emission ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Empirical Estimates ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Repeated Calls ◽  
Global Agreement

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2°C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2°C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000–2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO 2 e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO 2 e is improbable.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Events in the Niger Delta Part of Nigeria

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Hassan ◽  
Robert M. Kalin ◽  
Jamiu A. Aladejana ◽  
Christopher J. White
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation

The Niger Delta is the most climate-vulnerable region in Nigeria. Flooding events are recorded annually in settlements along the River Niger and its tributaries, inundating many towns and displacing people from their homes. In this study, climate change impacts from extreme meteorological events over the period 2010–2099 are predicted and analyzed. Four coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs) under respectively concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios were used for climate change predictions. Standardized precipitation indices (SPI) of 1-month and 12-month time steps were used for extreme event assessment. Results from the climate change scenarios predict an increase in rainfall across all future periods and under both emission scenarios, with the highest projected increase during the last three decades of the century. Under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, the rainfall at Port Harcourt and Yenagoa Stations is predicted to increase by about 2.47% and 2.62% while the rainfall at Warri Station is predicted to increase by about 1.39% toward the end of the century. The 12-month SPI under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios predict an exceedance in the extreme wet threshold (i.e., SPI > 2) during all future periods and across all study locations. These findings suggest an increasing risk of flooding within the projected periods. The finding can be useful to policymakers for the formulation and planning of flood mitigation and adaptation measures.

Globalizing Responsibility for Climate Change

2011 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve Vanderheiden
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Causal Chain ◽  
Climate Justice ◽  
Environmental Damage ◽  
Burden Distribution ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Copenhagen Accord ◽  
Primary Obstacle

Who should pay the costs associated with anthropogenic climate change, how much should they pay, and why? This burden-distribution problem has become the central question of climate justice among scholars and activists, and it remains the primary obstacle to the development of an effective climate regime. The costs are expected to be significant and varied, but can generally be categorized in terms ofmitigation—that is, those costs associated with reducing further human contributions toward the increasing atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) that cause climate change; andadaptation—that is, those costs that result from attempting to insulate humans from the harms associated with the anthropogenic environmental damage of climate change. Since mitigation actions undertaken by developed countries under the auspices of the Kyoto Protocol are self-financed and mitigation targets accepted by developing countries are widely viewed as contingent upon financing from developed countries, imperatives to reduce GHGs are fundamentally matters of allocating mitigation costs. Adaptation intervenes in the causal chain between climate change and human harm, allowing the former but preventing the latter, but when this is not possible, a third category ofcompensationcosts must be assigned in order to remedy failed mitigation and adaptation efforts. Because the formulas for assessing liability for adaptation and for compensation are identical, and since climate justice requires adaptation efforts that render compensation unnecessary, for the purposes of this essay the category of adaptation shall be understood to include prevention of harm as well asex postcompensation for it. As expected, the “Copenhagen Accord” that emerged from the Fifteenth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in December 2009 failed to satisfactorily address this core burden-allocation issue, making its resolution the primary problem to be addressed at the COP16 in Cancún, Mexico, at the end of 2010.

scholarly journals Level of Knowledge of Agricultural Science Graduate Students about Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Practices of Agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 50
Author(s):  
Nabeel Mohammad Gazzaz ◽  
Motasem M. Al-Masad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Graduate Students ◽  
Agricultural Science ◽  
Moderate Level ◽  
Distribution Analysis ◽  
General Knowledge ◽  
Master's Students ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Level Of Knowledge ◽  
High Level

Climate change (CC) is a global environmental problem and source of concern. Effective planning and implementation of CC mitigation and adaptation may arise from knowledge of its causes and effects. Therefore, dissemination of knowledge is highly important for ensuring that the knowledge grows and spreads amongst the various stakeholders and that it is turned into action. The students of today are the leaders and policy makers of tomorrow. They will effectively serve as change agents once their knowledge base has been well established. This study provides analysis of graduate students' level of knowledge of CC, its nature, causes, effects, mitigation, and adaptation. The study population was 57 agricultural science master's students in the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences in Jarash University, Jordan, and the sample consisted of 50 of those students. The study used online test as the knowledge assessment and data collection tool. Frequency distribution analysis uncovered that the sample students possess high level of general knowledge of CC, moderate level of knowledge of mitigation of CC, and high level of knowledge of adaptation to CC. As to the three investigated facets of general knowledge of CC, these students have high levels of knowledge of the nature and the effects of CC and moderate level of knowledge of its causes. These findings contribute to understanding of students' knowledge achievements and gaps and of the need for curricular reform in terms of structure and content that can be shared by agricultural science faculties around the World with similar CC graduate programs.

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