scholarly journals Integrating over uncertainty in spatial scale of response within multispecies occupancy models yields more accurate assessments of community composition

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke Owen Frishkoff ◽  
D. Luke Mahler ◽  
Marie-Josée Fortin
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Type I ◽  
List Type ◽  
Occupancy Models ◽  
Species Detection ◽  
Scale Of Response

AbstractSpecies abundance and community composition are affected not only by the local environment, but also by broader landscape and regional context. Yet determining the spatial scale at which landscapes affect species remains a persistent challenge that hinders ecologists’ abilities to understand how environmental gradients influence species presence and shape entire communities, especially in the face of data deficient species and imperfect species detection.Here we present a Bayesian framework that allows uncertainty surrounding the ‘true’ spatial scale of species’ responses (i.e., changes in presence/absence) to be integrated directly into a community hierarchical model.This scale selecting multi-species occupancy model (ssMSOM) estimates the scale of response, and shows high accuracy and correct type I error rates across a broad range of simulation conditions. In contrast, ensembles of single species GLMs frequently fail to detect the correct spatial scale of response, and are often falsely confident in favoring the incorrect spatial scale, especially as species’ detection probabilities deviate from perfect.Integrating spatial scale selection directly into hierarchical community models provides a means of formally testing hypotheses regarding spatial scales of response, and more accurately determining the environmental drivers that shape communities.

scholarly journals Including intraspecific trait variability to avoid distortion of functional diversity and ecological inference: lessons from natural assemblages

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark K. L. Wong ◽  
Carlos P. Carmona
Keyword(s):  
Functional Diversity ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Type I ◽  
List Type ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Ant Communities ◽  
Functional Richness ◽  
Intraspecific Trait Variability ◽  
Trait Variability

ABSTRACTFunctional diversity assessments are crucial and increasingly used for understanding ecological processes and managing ecosystems. The functional diversity of a community is assessed by sampling traits at one or more scales (individuals, populations, species) and calculating a summary index of the variation in trait values. However, it remains unclear how the scale at which traits are sampled and the indices used to estimate functional diversity may alter the patterns observed and inferences about ecological processes.For 40 plant and 61 ant communities, we assess functional diversity using six methods – encompassing various mean-based and probabilistic methods – chosen to reflect common scenarios where different levels of detail are available in trait data. We test whether including trait variability at different scales (from individuals to species) alter functional diversity values calculated using volume-based and dissimilarity-based indices, Functional Richness (FRic) and Rao, respectively. We further test whether such effects alter the functional diversity patterns observed across communities and their relationships with environmental drivers such as abiotic gradients and occurrences of invasive species.Intraspecific trait variability strongly determined FRic and Rao. Methods using only species’ mean trait values to calculate FRic (convex hulls) and Rao (Gower-based dissimilarity) distorted the patterns observed when intraspecific trait variability was considered. These distortions generated Type I and Type II errors for the effects of environmental factors structuring the plant and ant communities.The high sensitivity of FRic to individuals with extreme trait values was revealed in comparisons of different probabilistic methods including among-individual and among-population trait variability in functional diversity. By contrast, values and ecological patterns in Rao were consistent among methods including different scales of intraspecific trait variability.Decisions about where traits are sampled and how trait variability is included in functional diversity can drastically change the patterns observed and conclusions about ecological processes. We recommend sampling the traits of multiple individuals per species and capturing their intraspecific trait variability using probabilistic methods. We discuss how intraspecific trait variability can be reasonably estimated and included in functional diversity in the common circumstance where only limited trait data are available.

scholarly journals Common datastream permutations of animal social network data are not appropriate for hypothesis testing using regression models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael N. Weiss ◽  
Daniel W. Franks ◽  
Lauren J. N. Brent ◽  
Samuel Ellis ◽  
Matthew J. Silk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Social Structure ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Network Data ◽  
Type I ◽  
List Type ◽  
False Positive Error ◽  
The Social

AbstractSocial network methods have become a key tool for describing, modelling, and testing hypotheses about the social structures of animals. However, due to the non-independence of network data and the presence of confounds, specialized statistical techniques are often needed to test hypotheses in these networks. Datastream permutations, originally developed to test the null hypothesis of random social structure, have become a popular tool for testing a wide array of null hypotheses. In particular, they have been used to test whether exogenous factors are related to network structure by interfacing these permutations with regression models.Here, we show that these datastream permutations typically do not represent the null hypothesis of interest to researchers interfacing animal social network analysis with regression modelling, and use simulations to demonstrate the potential pitfalls of using this methodology.Our simulations show that utilizing common datastream permutations to test the coefficients of regression models can lead to extremely high type I (false-positive) error rates (> 30%) in the presence of non-random social structure. The magnitude of this problem is primarily dependent on the degree of non-randomness within the social structure and the intensity of samplingWe strongly recommend against utilizing datastream permutations to test regression models in animal social networks. We suggest that a potential solution may be found in regarding the problems of non-independence of network data and unreliability of observations as separate problems with distinct solutions.

Correction: “Influence of Selection Bias on the Test Decision – A Simulation Study”

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (05) ◽  
pp. 343-343
Keyword(s):  
Selection Bias ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Type I Error ◽  
Block Size ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Type I ◽  
Type I Error Rate ◽  
Representation Error ◽  
Numeric Representation

We have to report marginal changes in the empirical type I error rates for the cut-offs 2/3 and 4/7 of Table 4, Table 5 and Table 6 of the paper “Influence of Selection Bias on the Test Decision – A Simulation Study” by M. Tamm, E. Cramer, L. N. Kennes, N. Heussen (Methods Inf Med 2012; 51: 138 –143). In a small number of cases the kind of representation of numeric values in SAS has resulted in wrong categorization due to a numeric representation error of differences. We corrected the simulation by using the round function of SAS in the calculation process with the same seeds as before. For Table 4 the value for the cut-off 2/3 changes from 0.180323 to 0.153494. For Table 5 the value for the cut-off 4/7 changes from 0.144729 to 0.139626 and the value for the cut-off 2/3 changes from 0.114885 to 0.101773. For Table 6 the value for the cut-off 4/7 changes from 0.125528 to 0.122144 and the value for the cut-off 2/3 changes from 0.099488 to 0.090828. The sentence on p. 141 “E.g. for block size 4 and q = 2/3 the type I error rate is 18% (Table 4).” has to be replaced by “E.g. for block size 4 and q = 2/3 the type I error rate is 15.3% (Table 4).”. There were only minor changes smaller than 0.03. These changes do not affect the interpretation of the results or our recommendations.

The Use of Theory of Linear Mixed-Effects Models to Detect Fraudulent Erasures at an Aggregate Level

2021 ◽  
pp. 001316442199489
Author(s):  
Luyao Peng ◽  
Sandip Sinharay
Keyword(s):  
Type I Error ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Mixed Effects ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Mixed Effects Models ◽  
Type I ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Linear Mixed Effects Models ◽  
Linear Mixed Effects ◽  
Best Linear Unbiased

Wollack et al. (2015) suggested the erasure detection index (EDI) for detecting fraudulent erasures for individual examinees. Wollack and Eckerly (2017) and Sinharay (2018) extended the index of Wollack et al. (2015) to suggest three EDIs for detecting fraudulent erasures at the aggregate or group level. This article follows up on the research of Wollack and Eckerly (2017) and Sinharay (2018) and suggests a new aggregate-level EDI by incorporating the empirical best linear unbiased predictor from the literature of linear mixed-effects models (e.g., McCulloch et al., 2008). A simulation study shows that the new EDI has larger power than the indices of Wollack and Eckerly (2017) and Sinharay (2018). In addition, the new index has satisfactory Type I error rates. A real data example is also included.

scholarly journals 8-Day and Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature Estimation via Machine Learning Method on a Climate Zone to Global Scale

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2355
Author(s):  
Linglin Zeng ◽  
Yuchao Hu ◽  
Rui Wang ◽  
Xiang Zhang ◽  
Guozhang Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scale ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Zone ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Air temperature (Ta) is a required input in a wide range of applications, e.g., agriculture. Land Surface Temperature (LST) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are widely used to estimate Ta. Previous studies of these products in Ta estimation, however, were generally applied in small areas and with a small number of meteorological stations. This study designed both temporal and spatial experiments to estimate 8-day and daily maximum and minimum Ta (Tmax and Tmin) on three spatial scales: climate zone, continental and global scales from 2009 to 2018, using the Random Forest (RF) method based on MODIS LST products and other auxiliary data. Factors contributing to the relation between LST and Ta were determined based on physical models and equations. Temporal and spatial experiments were defined by the rules of dividing the training and validation datasets for the RF method, in which the stations selected in the training dataset were all included or not in the validation dataset. The RF model was first trained and validated on each spatial scale, respectively. On a global scale, model accuracy with a determination coefficient (R2) > 0.96 and root mean square error (RMSE) < 1.96 °C and R2 > 0.95 and RMSE < 2.55 °C was achieved for 8-day and daily Ta estimations, respectively, in both temporal and spatial experiments. Then the model was trained and cross-validated on each spatial scale. The results showed that the data size and station distribution of the study area were the main factors influencing the model performance at different spatial scales. Finally, the spatial patterns of the model performance and variable importance were analyzed. Both daytime and nighttime LST had a significant contribution in the 8-day Tmax estimation on all the three spatial scales; while their contribution in daily Tmax estimation varied over different continents or climate zones. This study was expected to improve our understanding of Ta estimation in terms of accuracy variations and influencing variables on different spatial and temporal scales. The future work mainly includes identifying underlying mechanisms of estimation errors and the uncertainty sources of Ta estimation from a local to a global scale.

scholarly journals Analysis of local habitat selection and large-scale attraction/avoidance based on animal tracking data: is there a single best method?

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Mercker ◽  
Philipp Schwemmer ◽  
Verena Peschko ◽  
Leonie Enners ◽  
Stefan Garthe
Keyword(s):  
Habitat Selection ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Error Rates ◽  
Process Models ◽  
Statistical Hypothesis ◽  
Type I ◽  
Tracking Data ◽  
Selection Models ◽  
Animal Tracking ◽  
Step Selection

Abstract Background New wildlife telemetry and tracking technologies have become available in the last decade, leading to a large increase in the volume and resolution of animal tracking data. These technical developments have been accompanied by various statistical tools aimed at analysing the data obtained by these methods. Methods We used simulated habitat and tracking data to compare some of the different statistical methods frequently used to infer local resource selection and large-scale attraction/avoidance from tracking data. Notably, we compared spatial logistic regression models (SLRMs), spatio-temporal point process models (ST-PPMs), step selection models (SSMs), and integrated step selection models (iSSMs) and their interplay with habitat and animal movement properties in terms of statistical hypothesis testing. Results We demonstrated that only iSSMs and ST-PPMs showed nominal type I error rates in all studied cases, whereas SSMs may slightly and SLRMs may frequently and strongly exceed these levels. iSSMs appeared to have on average a more robust and higher statistical power than ST-PPMs. Conclusions Based on our results, we recommend the use of iSSMs to infer habitat selection or large-scale attraction/avoidance from animal tracking data. Further advantages over other approaches include short computation times, predictive capacity, and the possibility of deriving mechanistic movement models.

scholarly journals Using areas of known occupancy to identify sources of variation in detection probability of raptors: taking time lowers replication effort for surveys

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 160368 ◽  
Author(s):  
Campbell Murn ◽  
Graham J. Holloway
Keyword(s):  
Detection Probability ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Survey Methods ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Occupancy Models ◽  
Imperfect Detection ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Sources Of Variation ◽  
Time Of Year

Species occurring at low density can be difficult to detect and if not properly accounted for, imperfect detection will lead to inaccurate estimates of occupancy. Understanding sources of variation in detection probability and how they can be managed is a key part of monitoring. We used sightings data of a low-density and elusive raptor (white-headed vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis ) in areas of known occupancy (breeding territories) in a likelihood-based modelling approach to calculate detection probability and the factors affecting it. Because occupancy was known a priori to be 100%, we fixed the model occupancy parameter to 1.0 and focused on identifying sources of variation in detection probability. Using detection histories from 359 territory visits, we assessed nine covariates in 29 candidate models. The model with the highest support indicated that observer speed during a survey, combined with temporal covariates such as time of year and length of time within a territory, had the highest influence on the detection probability. Averaged detection probability was 0.207 (s.e. 0.033) and based on this the mean number of visits required to determine within 95% confidence that white-headed vultures are absent from a breeding area is 13 (95% CI: 9–20). Topographical and habitat covariates contributed little to the best models and had little effect on detection probability. We highlight that low detection probabilities of some species means that emphasizing habitat covariates could lead to spurious results in occupancy models that do not also incorporate temporal components. While variation in detection probability is complex and influenced by effects at both temporal and spatial scales, temporal covariates can and should be controlled as part of robust survey methods. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for detection probability in occupancy studies, particularly during presence/absence studies for species such as raptors that are widespread and occur at low densities.

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