scholarly journals Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Author(s):  
Richard A. Neher ◽  
Robert Dyrdak ◽  
Valentin Druelle ◽  
Emma B. Hodcroft ◽  
Jan Albert

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 80,000 confirmed infections and 2,700 fatalities (as of Feb 27, 2020). Imported cases and transmission clusters of various sizes have been reported globally suggesting a pandemic is likely.Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterize our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions.While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Helsingen ◽  
Erle Refsum ◽  
Dagrun Kyte Gjøstein ◽  
Magnus Løberg ◽  
Michael Bretthauer ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Norway and Sweden have similar populations and health care systems, but different reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Norway closed educational institutions, and banned sports and cultural activities; Sweden kept most institutions and training facilities open. We aimed to compare peoples’ attitudes towards authorities and control measures, and perceived impact of the pandemic and implemented control measures on life in Norway and Sweden.Methods: Anonymous web-based surveys for individuals age 15 or older distributed through Facebook using the snowball method, in Norway and Sweden from mid-March to mid-April, 2020. The survey contained questions about perceived threat of the pandemic, views on infection control measures, and impact on daily life. We performed descriptive analyses of the responses and compared the two countries.Results: 3,508 individuals participated in the survey (Norway 3000; Sweden 508). 79% were women, the majority were 30-49 years (Norway 60%; Sweden 47%), and about 45% of the participants in both countries had more than four years of higher education.Participants had high trust in the health services, but differed in the degree of trust in their government (High trust in Norway 17%; Sweden 37%). More Norwegians than Swedes agreed that school closure was a good measure (Norway 66%; Sweden 18%), that countries with open schools were irresponsible (Norway 65%; Sweden 23%), and that the threat from repercussions of the mitigation measures were large or very large (Norway 71%; Sweden 56%). Both countries had a high compliance with infection preventive measures (> 98%). Many lived a more sedentary life (Norway 69%; Sweden 50%) and ate more (Norway 44%; Sweden 33%) during the pandemic. Conclusion: Sweden had more trust in the authorities, while Norwegians reported a more negative lifestyle during the pandemic. The level of trust in the health care system and self-reported compliance with preventive measures was high in both countries despite the differences in infection control measures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise M. Helsingen ◽  
◽  
Erle Refsum ◽  
Dagrun Kyte Gjøstein ◽  
Magnus Løberg ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Norway and Sweden have similar populations and health care systems, but different reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Norway closed educational institutions, and banned sports and cultural activities; Sweden kept most institutions and training facilities open. We aimed to compare peoples’ attitudes towards authorities and control measures, and perceived impact of the pandemic and implemented control measures on life in Norway and Sweden. Methods Anonymous web-based surveys for individuals age 15 or older distributed through Facebook using the snowball method, in Norway and Sweden from mid-March to mid-April, 2020. The survey contained questions about perceived threat of the pandemic, views on infection control measures, and impact on daily life. We performed descriptive analyses of the responses and compared the two countries. Results 3508 individuals participated in the survey (Norway 3000; Sweden 508). 79% were women, the majority were 30–49 years (Norway 60%; Sweden 47%), and about 45% of the participants in both countries had more than 4 years of higher education. Participants had high trust in the health services, but differed in the degree of trust in their government (High trust in Norway 17%; Sweden 37%). More Norwegians than Swedes agreed that school closure was a good measure (Norway 66%; Sweden 18%), that countries with open schools were irresponsible (Norway 65%; Sweden 23%), and that the threat from repercussions of the mitigation measures were large or very large (Norway 71%; Sweden 56%). Both countries had a high compliance with infection preventive measures (> 98%). Many lived a more sedentary life (Norway 69%; Sweden 50%) and ate more (Norway 44%; Sweden 33%) during the pandemic. Conclusion Sweden had more trust in the authorities, while Norwegians reported a more negative lifestyle during the pandemic. The level of trust in the health care system and self-reported compliance with preventive measures was high in both countries despite the differences in infection control measures.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lise Helsingen ◽  
Erle Refsum ◽  
Dagrun Kyte Gjøstein ◽  
Magnus Løberg ◽  
Michael Bretthauer ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Norway and Sweden have similar populations and health care systems, but different reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic. Norway closed educational institutions, and banned sports and cultural activities; Sweden kept most institutions and training facilities open. We aimed to compare peoples’ attitudes towards authorities and control measures, and perceived impact of the pandemic and implemented control measures on life in Norway and Sweden. Methods: Anonymous web-based surveys for individuals age 15 or older distributed through Facebook using the snowball method, in Norway and Sweden from mid-March to mid-April, 2020. The survey contained questions about perceived threat of the pandemic, views on infection control measures, and impact on daily life. We performed descriptive analyses of the responses and compared the two countries. Results: 3,508 individuals participated in the survey (Norway 3000; Sweden 508). 79% were women, the majority were 30-49 years (Norway 60%; Sweden 47%), and about 45% of the participants in both countries had more than four years of higher education. Participants had high trust in the health services, but differed in the degree of trust in their government (High trust in Norway 17%; Sweden 37%). More Norwegians than Swedes agreed that school closure was a good measure (Norway 66%; Sweden 18%), that countries with open schools were irresponsible (Norway 65%; Sweden 23%), and that the threat from repercussions of the mitigation measures were large or very large (Norway 71%; Sweden 56%). Both countries had a high compliance with infection preventive measures (> 98%). Many lived a more sedentary life (Norway 69%; Sweden 50%) and ate more (Norway 44%; Sweden 33%) during the pandemic. Conclusion: Sweden had more trust in the authorities, while Norwegians reported a more negative lifestyle during the pandemic. The level of trust in the health care system and self-reported compliance with preventive measures was high in both countries despite the differences in infection control measures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  

In the month of December year 2019, a virus that is known as novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) activate via SARS-CoV 2 pop up in a country that is China and now has unfolded in numerous countries. This virus is mutating continuously and appears as more severe in transmitting infections and mortality. It is found that the transmission rate and mortality due to COVID-19 is different in different regions. It is also reported that pregnant ladies are the prone populace of COVID-19 and are greater in all likelihood to possess problems and proceed to extreme illness. However, direct transference from mom to toddler is still to be approved. Coronavirus discovered (COVID-19) has hastily activated like a world fitness ultimatum. The reason for this in the article is to measure our neighborhood trip of boosting contamination manage rate COVID-19 contamination of each medical care people and sufferers. In addition, it is recommended to make effective legislation to control the spread of viral diseases globally.


2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (5) ◽  
pp. 481-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Meng ◽  
F. Hua ◽  
Z. Bian

The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), originating in Wuhan, China, has become a major public health challenge for not only China but also countries around the world. The World Health Organization announced that the outbreaks of the novel coronavirus have constituted a public health emergency of international concern. As of February 26, 2020, COVID-19 has been recognized in 34 countries, with a total of 80,239 laboratory-confirmed cases and 2,700 deaths. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the epidemic situation. Due to the characteristics of dental settings, the risk of cross infection can be high between patients and dental practitioners. For dental practices and hospitals in areas that are (potentially) affected with COVID-19, strict and effective infection control protocols are urgently needed. This article, based on our experience and relevant guidelines and research, introduces essential knowledge about COVID-19 and nosocomial infection in dental settings and provides recommended management protocols for dental practitioners and students in (potentially) affected areas.


2020 ◽  
Vol 258 (5) ◽  
pp. 1049-1055 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy H. T. Lai ◽  
Emily W. H. Tang ◽  
Sandy K. Y. Chau ◽  
Kitty S. C. Fung ◽  
Kenneth K. W. Li

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (T1) ◽  
pp. 618-621
Author(s):  
Fareedi Mukram Ali ◽  
Kishor Patil ◽  
Elnur Ibrahim Albashir ◽  
Abdulhamid Aidarous Alamir

Novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a novel form of virus with a new strain identified recently in humans. Common clinical signs and symptoms primarily consist of fever, cough, and breathing difficulties. In severe cases, it can results in pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure, and even death. It is important to follow all infection control measures in prevention of the nCoV from spreading and controlling the epidemic situation. The risk of cross infection can be high between dental practitioners and patients due to the features of dental clinical settings. Here, we are summarizing the nCoV related information and infection control measures to be followed in dental practice.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Andrea Schulz

<b>Background:</b> The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is expected to last for an extended time, making strict safety precautions for office procedures unavoidable. The lockdown is going to be lifted in many areas, and strict guidelines detailing the infection control measures for aesthetic clinics are going to be of particular importance. <b>Methods:</b> A virtual meeting was conducted with the members (n = 12) of the European Academy of Facial Plastic Surgery Focus Group to outline the safety protocol for the nonsurgical facial aesthetic procedures for aesthetic practices in order to protect the clinic staff and the patients from SARS-CoV-2 infection. The data analysis was undertaken by thematic and iterative approach. <b>Results:</b> Consensus guidelines for nonsurgical facial aesthetic procedures based on current knowledge are provided for three levels: precautions before visiting the clinic, precautions during the clinic visit, and precautions after the clinic visit. <b>Conclusions:</b> Sound infection control measures are mandatory for nonsurgical aesthetic practices all around the world. These may vary from country to country, but this logical approach can be customized according to the respective country laws and guidelines.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-69
Author(s):  
Noriko Shimasaki ◽  
Hideaki Morikawa ◽  
◽  

A new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic in Japan can be viewed as an urban disaster because transmission of this respiratory disease tends to occur in densely populated areas. A scientific understanding of the pathogen itself, the cause of the disaster (infectious disease), as well as infection control measures, are important to implement robust and appropriate countermeasures. This review discribes the features, especially the modes of transmission, of COVID-19 and the principles by which infection control is possible using one of the most effective infection control measures – personal protective equipment (PPE). Because COVID-19 is often transmitted to others by asymptomatic individuals through droplets, even those who are unaware of their infection should wear masks to prevent the spread of droplets that may contain the virus and effectively control the spread of disease. However, given the worldwide competition for masks and the urgent requirement of effective controls, it is necessary to conduct further research to establish a system that can supply adequate numbers of masks to regions where many people are infected in the country, with no shortage of masks, in order to make the country more resilient to disasters caused by infectious diseases in the future.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
Ravichandra Ravi ◽  
Srividya Athkuri ◽  
Charishma Chowdary Ponugubati ◽  
Roopesh Borugadda ◽  
Sahithi Pamidimukkala ◽  
...  

Background: The pandemic caused by novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 is a highly infectious disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak of Corona Virus Diseases (COVID 19) as a global public health emergency. Currently, research on novel coronaviruses is still in the primary stage. Aims and Objective: The aim of this study is to assess knowledge and awareness on the usage of mouth masks among dental fraternity during this pandemic COVID-19. Materials and Methods: A total of 507 dentists from the Andhra Pradesh (India) region completed a questionnaire-based survey on knowledge, awareness, and infection control measures, such as usage of mouth masks during the pandemic COVID -19. The questionnaire was tailored from the guidance and the information provided for healthcare workers issued by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). A suitable sampling method was used for the collection of data, and the distribution of responses was presented as percentages. Explanatory statistics were performed for all groups based on the percentage of correct responses. Results: A total of 530 participated in the survey, out of which 507 dentists completely answered the survey, and the response rate was 95.6%. Among the respondents, general practitioners and postgraduates accounted for 58.8% and 41.2%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference for all the questions solicited among the respondents. General or private practitioners seem to be more aware than postgraduates, as they have answered correctly (>65%) for almost all the questions. Conclusion: The inputs from the study help us to throw some light and fill up space where required. There is a specific and strong need to implement periodic educational programmes and training sessions on infection control practices for COVID-19 among dentists in particular.


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