scholarly journals Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianyi Qiu ◽  
Han Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
End Point ◽  
National Public Health

SummaryBackgroundThe epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 was first reported in Wuhan, China, and now is spreading worldwide. The Chinese government responded to this epidemic with multiple public health policies including locking down the city of Wuhan, establishing multiple temporary hospitals, and prohibiting public gathering events. Here, we constructed a new real-time status dynamic model of SEIO (MH) to reveal the influence of national public health policies and to model the epidemic in Wuhan.MethodsA real-time status dynamic model was proposed to model the population of Wuhan in status Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected with symptoms (I), with Medical care (M), and Out of the system (O) daily. Model parameters were fitted according to the daily report of new infections from Jan. 27th, 2020 to Feb. 2nd, 2020. Using the fitted parameters, the epidemic under different conditions was simulated and compared with the current situation.FindingAccording to our study, the first patient is most likely appeared on Nov. 29th, 2019. There had already been 4,153 infected people and 6,536 exposed ones with the basic reproduction number R0 of 2.65 before lockdown, whereas R0 dropped to 1.98 for the first 30 days after the lockdown. The peak point is Feb. 17th, 2020 with 24,115 infected people and the end point is Jun. 17th, 2020. In total, 77,453 people will be infected. If lockdown imposed 7 days earlier, the total number of infected people would be 21,508, while delaying the lockdown by 1-6 days would expand the infection scale 1.23 to 4.94 times. A delay for 7 days would make the epidemic finally out of control. Doubling the number of beds in hospitals would decrease the total infections by 28%, and further investment in bed numbers would yield a diminishing return. Last, public gathering events that increased the transmission parameter by 5% in one single day would increase 4,243 infected people eventually.InterpretationOur model forecasted that the peak time in Wuhan was Feb. 17th, 2020 and the epidemic in Wuhan is now under control. The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 is currently a global public health threat for all nations. Multiple countries including South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, and the United States are suffering from SARS-CoV-2. Our study, which simulated the epidemic in Wuhan, the first city in the world fighting against SARS-CoV-2, may provide useful guidance for other countries in dealing with similar situations.FundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China (31900483) and Shanghai Sailing program (19YF1441100).Research in contextEvidence before this studyThe epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 has been currently believed to started from Wuhan, China. The Chinese government started to report the data including infected, cured and dead since Jan 20th, 2020. We searched PubMed and preprint archives for articles published up to Feb 28th, 2020, which contained information about the Wuhan outbreak using the terms of “SARS-CoV-2”, “2019-nCoV”, “COVID-19”, “public health policies”, “coronavirus”, “CoV”, “Wuhan”, “transmission model”, etc. And a number of articles were found to forecast the early dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and clinical characteristics of COVID-19. Several of them mentioned the influence of city lockdown, whereas lacked research focused on revealing the impact of public health policies for the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 through modeling study.Added value of this studyAs the first study systemically analysis the effect of three major public health policies including 1) lockdown of Wuhan City, 2) construction of temporary hospitals and 3) reduction of crowed gathering events in Wuhan city. The results demonstrated the epidemic in Wuhan from the potential first patient to the end point as well as the influence of public health policies are expected to provide useful guidance for other countries in fighting against the epidemic of SRAS-CoV-2.Implications of all the available evidenceAvailable evidence illustrated the human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, in which the migration of people in China during the epidemic may quickly spread the epidemic to the rest of the nation. These findings also suggested that the lockdown of Wuhan city may slow down the spread of the epidemic in the rest of China.

Public health terminology: Hindrance to a Health in All Policies approach?

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen S. Synnevåg ◽  
Roar Amdam ◽  
Elisabeth Fosse
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Systematic Approach ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Health In All Policies ◽  
Health Work ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
National Public Health ◽  
The One

Aim: National public health policies in Norway are based on a Health in All Policies (HiAP) approach. At the local level, this means that public health, as a cross-sectional responsibility, should be implemented in all municipal sectors by integrating public health policies in municipal planning and management systems. The paper investigates these local processes, focusing on the use of public health terminology and how this terminology is translated from national to local contexts. We ask whether the terms ‘public health’ and ‘public health work’ are suitable when implementing an HiAP approach. Methods: A qualitative case study based on analyses of interviews and planning documents was performed in three Norwegian municipalities. Results: The results present dilemmas associated with using public health terminology when implementing an HiAP approach. On the one hand, the terms are experienced as wide, complex, advanced and unnecessary. On the other hand, the terms are experienced as important for a systematic approach towards understanding public health ideology and cross-sectional responsibility. One municipality used alternative terminology. Conclusions: This paper promotes debate about the appropriateness of using the terms ‘public health’ and ‘public health work’ at the local level. It suggests that adaptation is suitable and necessary, unless it compromises knowledge, responsibility and a systematic approach. This study concludes that the use of terminology is a central factor when implementing the Norwegian Public Health Act at the local level.

National public health policies for prevention and care in urinary incontinence in the elderly

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (S1) ◽  
pp. S71-S73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hansjoerg Melchior ◽  
Vinod Kumar ◽  
Nancy Muller ◽  
Hanneke van Maanen ◽  
Christine Norton
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Urinary Incontinence ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
National Public Health

scholarly journals Tracking the dynamics and allocating tests for COVID-19 in real-time: An acceleration index with an application to French age groups and départements

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. e0252443
Author(s):  
Christelle Baunez ◽  
Mickael Degoulet ◽  
Stéphane Luchini ◽  
Patrick A. Pintus ◽  
Miriam Teschl
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Based ◽  
National Average ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Using Data

An acceleration index is proposed as a novel indicator to track the dynamics of COVID-19 in real-time. Using data on cases and tests in France for the period between the first and second lock-downs—May 13 to October 25, 2020—our acceleration index shows that the pandemic resurgence can be dated to begin around July 7. It uncovers that the pandemic acceleration was stronger than national average for the [59–68] and especially the 69 and older age groups since early September, the latter being associated with the strongest acceleration index, as of October 25. In contrast, acceleration among the [19–28] age group was the lowest and is about half that of the [69–78]. In addition, we propose an algorithm to allocate tests among French “départements” (roughly counties), based on both the acceleration index and the feedback effect of testing. Our acceleration-based allocation differs from the actual distribution over French territories, which is population-based. We argue that both our acceleration index and our allocation algorithm are useful tools to guide public health policies as France might possibly enter a third lock-down period with indeterminate duration.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Framework for Estimating the Risk Ratio of Hospitalization for People with Comorbidity Infected by the SARS-CoV-2 Virus

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiang Gao ◽  
Qunfeng Dong
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
General Population ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Chronic Respiratory Disease ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The U.S

Estimating the hospitalization risk for people with certain comorbidities infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is important for developing public health policies and guidance based on risk stratification. Traditional biostatistical methods require knowing both the number of infected people who were hospitalized and the number of infected people who were not hospitalized. However, the latter may be undercounted, as it is limited to only those who were tested for viral infection. In addition, comorbidity information for people not hospitalized may not always be readily available for traditional biostatistical analyses. To overcome these limitations, we developed a Bayesian approach that only requires the observed frequency of comorbidities in COVID-19 patients in hospitals and the prevalence of comorbidities in the general population. By applying our approach to two different large-scale datasets in the U.S., our results consistently indicated that cardiovascular diseases carried the highest hospitalization risk for COVID-19 patients, followed by diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, hypertension, and obesity, respectively.

Interim Evaluation of South Korea’s Response to COVID-19 and Preparation for a Post-COVID-19 World in Public Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-190
Author(s):  
Youngmee Jee
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Key Success Factors ◽  
National Public Health

The aims of this study are to describe the key success factors of South Korea’s response to COVID-19 and to prepare for the post-COVID-19 world in public health. The MERS-CoV outbreak in 2015 provided the country with opportunities to enhance its national public health capacity in responding to emerging diseases, particularly in the areas of governance, testing, and tracing strategies, public-private partnership, risk communication, and the legal system supporting the government’s actions. This newly established system played a key role in South Korea’s relatively successful response to COVID-19. In this study, I evaluate that response and propose public health policies with a view to preparing for the post- COVID-19 world.

scholarly journals Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej ◽  
Marc Dhenain
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTEstimating the number of people affected by COVID-19 is crucial in deciding which public health policies to follow. The authorities in different countries carry out mortality counts. We propose that the mortality reported in each country can be used to create an index of the number of actual cases at a given time. The specificity of whether or not deaths are rapid or not by COVID-19 also affects the number of actual cases. The number of days between the declaration of illness and death varies between 12 and 18 days. For a delay of 18 days, and using an estimated mortality rate of 2%, the number of cases in April 2020 in Tunisia would be 5 580 people. The pessimistic scenario predicts 22 320 infected people, and the most optimistic predicts 744 (which is the number of reported cases on April 12, 2020). Modeling the occurrence of COVID-19 cases is critical to assess the impact of policies to prevent the spread of the virus.

scholarly journals Investigation on COVID-19 Infection Cases in Korea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Jung Kang
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Personal Hygiene ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Close Attention ◽  
Patient Case ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Pneumonia Case ◽  
Large Groups

Abstract On December 31st, 2019, the Chinese government announced officially that the country had a pneumonia case with an unknown cause. After that, Korea had 24 confirmed cases on February 8th, and the number has increased constantly since then. COVID-19, a highly contagious virus, infected another patient, Case No. 31, in Daegu; she was the first patient related to Sincheonji Church in Daegu. Later, the number of cases involved with Sincheonji skyrocketed. On March 6th, 2020, the accumulated number of confirmed cases was 6,284, with 42 dead among them. This study, through collecting epidemiological data about various COVID-19 infection cases, found out that getting together in large groups and religious ceremonies leads to massive infection, and that paying close attention to personal hygiene by wearing masks and sanitary gloves, etc., can prevent the spread of COVID-19. Additional epidemiological data and related studies on COVID-19 infections in Korea might either support or modify this conclusion. However, this study is significant in that it emphasizes the precautionary principle in preventing and managing infectious diseases, and that it has a suggestion for public health policies which are on urgent demand currently.

scholarly journals Real-time estimation of R0 for supporting public-health policies against COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Contreras ◽  
H. Andrés Villavicencio ◽  
David Medina-Ortiz ◽  
Claudia P. Saavedra ◽  
Álvaro Olivera-Nappa
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Time Estimation ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Consensus Protocol ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Viral Spread

AbstractBackgroundIn the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the current SARS-CoV2 spread, policy makers are in need of real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters. The Basic Reproduction Number (R0) represents viral spread rate and can be dramatically modified by the application of effective public control measures. However, current methodologies to calculate R0 from data remain cumbersome and unusable during an outbreak.ObjectiveTo provide a simple mathematical formulation for obtaining R0 in Real-Time, and apply it to assess the effectiveness of public-health policies in different iconic countries.Study designBy modifying the equations describing the spread of the virus, we derived a real-time R0 estimator that can be readily calculated from daily official case reports.ResultsWe show the application of a time trend analysis of the R0 estimator to assess the efficacy and promptness of public health measures that impacted on the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in iconic countries.ConclusionsWe propose our simple estimator and method as useful tools to follow and assess in real time the effectiveness of public health policies on COVID-19 evolution.

scholarly journals Expansionary Policy in Pandemics, a Dynamic Model Examination

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Leopoldo Gómez-Ramírez ◽  
Alexander Villarraga-Orjuela
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Sustainable Recovery ◽  
Do So ◽  
Expansionary Policy

The objective of this paper is to examine the issue of expansionary policies during the pandemic in Mexico. To do so, we use a dynamic model of the interaction between Covid-19 and economic output. We find that expansionary policies are desirable but that they alone cannot prevent the acceleration of the pandemic. We also model supplementary policies, especially public health policies, and find that in their presence expansionary economic policies can put the economy on track while simultaneously addressing the pandemic. Our analysis’s implications are straightforward: countercyclical economic policies are desirable when there are other supplementary policies. A limitation of our analysis is that it is circumscribed to the Mexican context. The paper is a novel contribution to the burgeoning literature on Covid-19 in Mexico because it is the first which formally examines the issue of expansionary policies during the pandemic. We conclude that both expansionary policies and supplementary policies are needed to achieve a sustainable recovery.

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