scholarly journals Impact of public health measures to control SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak: a data-driven analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugues Turbé ◽  
Mina Bjelogrlic ◽  
Arnaud Robert ◽  
Christophe Gaudet-Blavignac ◽  
Christian Lovis
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Reproductive Rate ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Time Required ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
Specific Country

With the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus since Fall 2019, governments took various measures to contain the propagation of the pandemic, declared on March, 2020. This study introduces a novel method to estimate the reproductive number using Bayesian inference with time-dependent priors. By inferring the infection dates from incidence time series, the developed approach allows direct comparison between reproductive number and introduction of public health measures in a specific country. First a specific period between the onset of the symptoms and a case being declared as dead is derived on data available in Switzerland. Focussing on the measures taken by 31 European countries, this study shows that most countries required tough state interventions with a stringency index equal to 83.6 out of 100 to reduce the reproductive number below one and hence control the development of the epidemy. In addition, it is shown that there is a direct correlation between the time taken to introduce restrictive measures and the time required to contain the spread of the epidemy with a median time of 8 days between the introduction of initial restrictive measures and the reproductive rate reducing below one.

scholarly journals Adaptive Time-Dependent Priors and Bayesian Inference to Evaluate SARS-CoV-2 Public Health Measures Validated on 31 Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugues Turbé ◽  
Mina Bjelogrlic ◽  
Arnaud Robert ◽  
Christophe Gaudet-Blavignac ◽  
Jean-Philippe Goldman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Fast Response ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Time Required ◽  
State Interventions ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
And Control

With the rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus since the end of 2019, public health confinement measures to contain the propagation of the pandemic have been implemented. Our method to estimate the reproduction number using Bayesian inference with time-dependent priors enhances previous approaches by considering a dynamic prior continuously updated as restrictive measures and comportments within the society evolve. In addition, to allow direct comparison between reproduction number and introduction of public health measures in a specific country, the infection dates are inferred from daily confirmed cases and confirmed death. The evolution of this reproduction number in combination with the stringency index is analyzed on 31 European countries. We show that most countries required tough state interventions with a stringency index equal to 79.6 out of 100 to reduce their reproduction number below one and control the progression of the pandemic. In addition, we show a direct correlation between the time taken to introduce restrictive measures and the time required to contain the spread of the pandemic with a median time of 8 days. This analysis is validated by comparing the excess deaths and the time taken to implement restrictive measures. Our analysis reinforces the importance of having a fast response with a coherent and comprehensive set of confinement measures to control the pandemic. Only restrictions or combinations of those have shown to effectively control the pandemic.

scholarly journals Genomic surveillance at scale is required to detect newly emerging strains at an early timepoint

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darcy Vavrek ◽  
Lucia Speroni ◽  
Kirsten J. Curnow ◽  
Michael Oberholzer ◽  
Vanessa Moeder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Performance Characteristics ◽  
Virus Population ◽  
Southern England ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Early Emergence ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Impact

AbstractGenomic surveillance in the setting of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has the potential to identify emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains that may be more transmissible, virulent, evade detection by standard diagnostic tests, or vaccine escapes. The rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 strain from southern England to other parts of the country and globe is a clear example of the impact of such strains. Early discovery of the B.1.1.7 strain was enabled through the proactive COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) program and the UK’s commitment to genomic surveillance, sequencing about 10% of positive samples.1 In order to enact more aggressive public health measures to minimize the spread of such strains, genomic surveillance needs to be of sufficient scale to detect early emergence and expansion in the broader virus population. By modeling common performance characteristics of available diagnostic and sequencing tests, we developed a model that assesses the sampling required to detect emerging strains when they are less than 1% of all strains in a population. This model demonstrates that 5% sampling of all positive tests allows the detection of emerging strains when they are a prevalence of 0.1% to 1.0%. While each country will determine their risk tolerance for the emergence of novel strains, as vaccines are distributed and we work to end the pandemic and prevent future SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, genomic surveillance will be an integral part of success.

scholarly journals Longitudinal COVID-19 Surveillance and Characterization in the Workplace with Public Health and Diagnostic Endpoints

mSphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manjula Gunawardana ◽  
Jessica Breslin ◽  
John M. Cortez ◽  
Sofia Rivera ◽  
Simon Webster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Social Behavior ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Health Care Infrastructure

The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the associated COVID-19 has precipitated a global pandemic heavily challenging our social behavior, economy, and health care infrastructure. In the absence of widespread, worldwide access to safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics, public health measures represent a key intervention for curbing the devastating impacts from the pandemic.

scholarly journals The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda

2004 ◽  
Vol 229 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Chowell ◽  
N.W. Hengartner ◽  
C. Castillo-Chavez ◽  
P.W. Fenimore ◽  
J.M. Hyman
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Health Measures

scholarly journals Unmasking the truth: experimental evidence of facemask compliance in Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Grépin ◽  
Valerie Mueller ◽  
Nicole Wu ◽  
Atonu Rabbani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Desirability ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
Biased Estimates ◽  
Specific Country

Abstract High levels of compliance with public health measures are critical to ensuring a successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, most data on compliance are self-reported. Tendency to overreport due to social desirability can yield biased estimates of compliance. We estimate rates of compliance with facemask mandates in Kenya, Nigeria, and Bangladesh using data from phone surveys conducted in March-April 2021. Data on compliance are collected from different survey modules: self-reported compliance (stated) and a list experiment (elicited). We find substantial gaps between stated and elicited rates of facemask wearing for different groups depending on specific country contexts and high levels of overreporting of facemask compliance in self-reported surveys. We observe differences in rates of self-reported facemask wearing among key groups but not using the elicited responses from the list experiment, which suggest that social desirability bias may vary by demographics. Data collected from self-reported surveys may not be reliable to monitor ongoing compliance with public health measures. Moreover, elicited compliance rates indicate levels of mask wearing are likely much lower than those estimated using self-reported data.

scholarly journals The Line Between Politics and Conspiracy Theories: Tracking Disinformation using #StopTheGreatReset

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashli Au
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Media Culture ◽  
Conspiracy Theories ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Media Research ◽  
Contemporary Media ◽  
Ongoing Project

Have you heard? In today’s pandemic, the Trudeau administration has been using the widespread lockdowns to impose socialism in Canada. This conspiracy theory has been mobilized under the hash tags #StopTheGreatReset, #Scamdemic and #CancelTheLockdown amongst others. With the COVID-19 pandemic, as with previous major events, there has been an influx of dis-and mis- information on social media platforms. This rapid spread of information can have strong influences on people’s behaviour which can impact the effectiveness of public health measures taken by governments (Cinelli et al. 2020; González-Padilla andTortolero-Blanco 2020). My research is part of an ongoing project that aims to identify and map the spread of  disinformation, and its effects on Canadian society. For this sub-project, I created a database of social media posts from Twitter accounts that promote or spread disinformation narratives directed towards Canadian politics and public health measures. From this, we were able to identify some of the most common narratives of disinformation in circulation on Twitter; the hash tag #StopTheGreatReset was chosen as the focus of the project to study the fine, and often blurred, line between legitimate politics and conspiracy theories. Going forth, my aim is to conduct a qualitative analysis on the links attached to social media posts fueling disinformation to understand what kinds of information are being circulated and identify common themes. This project has been an opportunity for me to learn about how social media research is conducted and allows me to engage with urgent issues in contemporary media culture.

scholarly journals The autumnal lockdown was not the main initiator of the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 circulation in France

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronica Pereda-Loth ◽  
Aldair Martínez Pineda ◽  
Lenka Tisseyre ◽  
Monique Courtade-Saidi ◽  
Christophe Bousquet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Health State ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Collateral Effects ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Period

Abstract Background In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, governments have taken drastically restrictive public health measures with significant collateral effects. It is important to understand the impact of these measures on SARS-CoV-2 circulation. However, pandemic indicators lag behind the actual level of viral circulation and these delays are an obstacle to assessing the effectiveness of policy decisions. Here, we propose one way to solve this problem by synchronizing the indicators with viral circulation in a country (France) based on a landmark event. Methods Based on a first lockdown, we measured the time lag between the peak of governmental and non-governmental surveillance indicators and the highest level of virus circulation. This allowed alignment of all surveillance indicators with viral circulation during the second period of the epidemic, overlaid with the type of public health measures implemented. Results We show that the second peak in viral circulation in France happened ~21 October 2020, during the public health state of emergency but before the lockdown (31 October). Indicators also suggest that viral circulation decreased earlier in locations where curfews were implemented. Indicators did, however, begin to rise once the autumnal lockdown was lifted and the state of emergency resumed. Conclusions Overall, these results suggest that in France, the 2020 autumnal lockdown was not the main initiator of the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 circulation and curfews were important in achieving control of the transmission. Less-restrictive measures may need to be balanced with more-stringent measures to achieve desirable public health outcomes over time.

scholarly journals Suppressing COVID-19 transmission in Hong Kong: an observational study of the first four months

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Wu ◽  
Tim K. Tsang ◽  
Jessica Y. Wong ◽  
Tiffany W. Y. Ng ◽  
Faith Ho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Laboratory Testing ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Case Identification ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Based

Abstract Background: Hong Kong was one of the first locations outside of mainland China to identify COVID-19 cases in January 2020. We assessed the impact of various public health measures on transmission.Methods: We analysed data on all COVID-19 cases and public health measures in Hong Kong up to 7 May 2020. We described case-based, travel-based and community-based measures and examined their potential effects on case identification and transmission. Changes in transmissibility measured by the effective reproductive number Rt were estimated by comparing the Rt between periods when public health measures were and were not in effect. Delays in case confirmation in imported cases and locally infected cases were analysed to indicate the possible impact of expansion of laboratory testing capacity.Findings: Introduction of a 14-day quarantine on persons arriving from affected areas was associated with a 95% reduction in transmissibility from imported cases. Testing all arriving travelers reduced mean delays between arrival and detection of imported cases. Increases in laboratory testing capacity for pneumonia inpatients and symptomatic outpatients reduced the delay from onset to confirmation. Working from home and physical distancing measures implemented in high-risk facilities were associated with 67% and 58% reductions in transmission of COVID-19, respectively.Interpretation: Suppression of COVID-19 transmission in the first pandemic wave in Hong Kong was achieved through integration of travel-based, case-based and community-based public health measures focusing on early case identification and isolation and physical distancing.

scholarly journals Model-based evaluation of the impact of noncompliance with public health measures on COVID-19 disease control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Debra Van Egeren ◽  
Kaitlyn Johnson ◽  
Smriti Rao ◽  
Josh Furgeson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Complete Suppression ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high reproductive number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with biomedical and nonpharmaceutical interventions designed to limit disease transmission. In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals, demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions. We then used epidemiological modeling to explore the impact of noncompliance on short-term disease control, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Our modeling shows that the existence of a noncompliant population can also prevent any return to normalcy over the long run. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

scholarly journals Accounting for imported cases in estimating the time-varying reproductive number of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim K. Tsang ◽  
Peng Wu ◽  
Eric H. Y. Lau ◽  
Benjamin J. Cowling
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Considerable Proportion ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

ABSTRACTBackgroundEstimating the time-varying reproductive number, Rt, is critical for monitoring transmissibility of an emerging infectious disease during outbreaks. When local transmission is effectively suppressed, imported cases could substantially impact transmission dynamics.MethodsWe developed methodology to estimate separately the Rt for local cases and imported cases, since certain public health measures aim only to reduce onwards transmission from imported cases. We applied the framework to data on COVID-19 outbreaks in Hong Kong.ResultsWe estimated that the Rt for local cases decreased from above one in the early phase of outbreak to below one after tightening of public health measures. Assuming the same infectiousness of local and imported cases underestimated Rt for local cases due to control measures targeting travelers.ConclusionsWhen a considerable proportion of all cases are imported, the impact of imported cases in estimating Rt is critical. The methodology described here can allow for differential infectiousness of local imported cases.

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