scholarly journals Forecasting the Number of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases in Ethiopia Using Exponential Smoothing Times Series Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teshome Hailemeskel Abebe
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Smoothing Methods ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
The Right ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

AbstractThe main objective of this study is to forecast COVID-19 case in Ethiopiausing the best-fitted model. The time series data of COVID-19 case in Ethiopia from March 14, 2020 to June 05, 2020 were used.To this end, exponential growth, single exponential smoothing method, and doubleexponential smoothing methodwere used. To evaluate the forecasting performance of the model, root mean sum of square error was used. The study showed that double exponential smoothing methods was appropriate in forecasting the future number ofCOVID-19 cases in Ethiopia as dictated by lowest value of root mean sum of square error. The forecasting model shows that the number of coronavirus cases in Ethiopia grows exponentially. The finding of the results would help the concerned stakeholders to make the right decisions based on the information given on forecasts.

scholarly journals Daily Forecasting for Antam's Certified Gold Bullion Prices in 2018-2020 using Polynomial Regression and Double Exponential Smoothing

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 45-53
Author(s):  
Tresna Maulana Fahrudin ◽  
Prismahardi Aji Riyantoko ◽  
Kartika Maulida Hindrayani ◽  
I Gede Susrama Mas Diyasa
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Training Set ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
One Step ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing

Gold investment is currently a trend in society, especially the millennial generation. Gold investment for the younger generation is an advantage for the future. Gold bullion is often used as a promising investment, on other hand, the digital gold is available which it is stored online on the gold trading platform. However, any investment certainly has risks, and the price of gold bullion fluctuates from day to day. People who invest in gold hopes to benefit from the initial purchase price even if they must wait up to five years. The problem is how they can notice the best time to sell and buy gold. Therefore, this research proposes a forecasting approach based on time series data and the selling of gold bullion prices per gram in Indonesia. The experiment reported that Holt’s double exponential smoothing provided better forecasting performance than polynomial regression. Holt’s double exponential smoothing reached the minimum of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 0.056% in the training set, 0.047% in one-step testing, and 0.898% in multi-step testing.

scholarly journals Implementasi Sistem Informasi Prediksi Hasil Penjualan Perangkat Komputer Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 806
Author(s):  
Nurul Adha Oktarini Saputri ◽  
Nurul Huda
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
The Future ◽  
Time Series Method ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
The Right ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Prediction is an activity to predict a situation that will occur in the future by passing tests in the past. One way to get sales information in the future is to make sales forecasting. This sales forecast uses the Double Exponential Smoothing method because this method predicts by smoothing or smoothing past data by taking an average of several years to estimate the value of the coming year and this method uses the time series method. The results of this study are the right sales prediction information system, in order to determine the existing inventory of goods in accordance with the demand (demand) so that there is no overstock or lack of inventory in the future

scholarly journals PERAMALAN GARIS KEMISKINAN DI KABUPATEN PURBALINGGA TAHUN 2021-2023 DENGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING LINIER SATU PARAMETER DARI BROWN

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Dwi Anggraeni ◽  
Sri Maryani ◽  
Suseno Ariadhy
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Poverty Line ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trend Coefficient

Poverty is a major problem in a country. The Indonesian government has made various efforts to tackle the problem of poverty. The main problem faced in poverty alleviation is the large number of people living below the poverty line. Therefore, this study aims to predict the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for the next three periods as one of the efforts that can be made by the government in poverty alleviation. The method used in this study is a one-parameter linear double exponential smoothing from Brown. The software used in this research is Zaitun Time Series and Microsoft Excel. The steps taken are determining the forecasting objectives, plotting time series data, determining the appropriate method, determining the optimum parameter value, calculating the single exponential smoothing value, calculating double exponential smoothing value, calculate the smoothing constant value, calculate the trend coefficient value and perform forecasting. Based on the calculation results, the optimum alpha parameter value is 0.7 with MAPE value of 1.67866%, which means that this forecasting model has a very good performance. The forecast value of the poverty line in Purbalingga Regency for 2021 is Rp. 396,516, in 2022 it is Rp. 417,818, and in 2023 it is Rp. 439,120.

scholarly journals Prediction Of Drug Sales Using Methods Forecasting Double Exponential Smoothing (Case Study : Hospital Pharmacy of Condong Catur)

Telematika ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Annesa Maya Sabarina ◽  
Heru Cahya Rustamaji ◽  
Hidayatulah Himawan
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Drug Sale ◽  
Smoothing Methods ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Study Hospital

Purpose: Knowing the best alpha value from the data for each type of drug with various alpha parameters in the Double Exponential Smoothing Method and knowing the prediction results on each type of drug data at the Condong Catur Hospital pharmacy.Design/methodology/approach: Applying the Double Exponential Smoothing method with alpha parameters 0.1; 0.2; 0.3; 0.4; 0.5; 0.6; 0.7; 0.8; 0.9Findings/result: The test results on a system built using test data show that the double exponential smoothing method provides accuracy below 20% by producing a different Alpha (α) for each type of drug because the trend patterns in each drug sale are different at the Pharmacy at the Condong Catur Hospital. .Originality/value/state of the art: Based on previous research, this study has similar characteristics such as themes, parameters and methods used. Previous researchers used smoothing methods such as Double Exponential Smoothing in predicting stock / sales of goods 

scholarly journals Perbandingan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing dan Metode Holt untuk Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 89-94
Author(s):  
Nur Hijrah As Salam Al Ihsan ◽  
Hanifah Hanun Dzakiyah ◽  
Febri Liantoni
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Management Agency ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
The Right ◽  
National Disaster ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method ◽  
Single Exponential

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first discovered in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and spread so quickly into a pandemic. This outbreak has spread to 24 other countries, including Indonesia. Its spread is very fast, so a co-19 prediction study is needed to be able to make the right policy. To be able to predict the number of COVID-19 cases can be done with the Forecasting Technique. The purpose of this study is to forecast and compare Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing ¬ against the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia. The results of this study can be used as consideration for policymaking in dealing with the spread of COVID-19. Distribution predictions are based on data released by the Indonesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) in the first 100 days of COVID-19 deployment. The results of this study are the Double Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate than the Single Exponential Smoothing method because the forecasting results show an increase from the previous data. And the percentage of errors (MAPE) obtained is significantly smaller.

scholarly journals Perbandingan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing dan Least Square untuk Sistem Prediksi Hasil Produksi Teh

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-53
Author(s):  
Muhammad Bagus Nurkahfi ◽  
Victor Wahanggara ◽  
Bakhtiyar Hadi Prakoso
Keyword(s):  
Production Capacity ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Tea Production ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
The Right ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Tea is one of the mainstay commodities of Indonesian plantation. In order to meet market demand, it is necessary to plan the right production needs, so that the amount of production capacity and market demand is balanced. To meet the needs of the right production requires good planning. The way that can be done is by making predictions. In this study, the prediction of tea production was carried out using the Double Exponential Smothing and Least Square methods. From the test results, it was found that the MAPE value of the Double Exponential Smoothing method, the most optimal α value is α 0.1 with a MAPE value of 18.084% and for the Least Square method the MAPE value is 17.008%.

scholarly journals GOLDEN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: A SELF-ADJUSTED METHOD FOR IDENTIFYING OPTIMUM ALPHA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 587
Author(s):  
Fong Yeng Foo ◽  
Azrina Suhaimi ◽  
Soo Kum Yoke
Keyword(s):  
Golden Section ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Training Process ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Golden Section Search ◽  
Training Stage ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Accuracy Of Prediction

The conventional double exponential smoothing is a forecasting method that troubles the forecaster with a tremendous choice of its parameter, alpha. The choice of alpha would greatly influence the accuracy of prediction. In this paper, an integrated forecasting method named Golden Exponential Smoothing (GES) was proposed to solve the problem. The conventional method was reformed and interposed with golden section search such that an optimum alpha which minimizes the errors of forecasting could be identified in the algorithm training process.  Numerical simulations of four sets of times series data were employed to test the efficiency of GES model. The findings show that the GES model was self-adjusted according to the situation and converged fast in the algorithm training process. The optimum alpha, which was identified from the algorithm training stage, demonstrated good performance in the stage of Model Testing and Usage.

scholarly journals Forecasting Of Criminality Problems Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Academia Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatikhul Ikhsan ◽  
Sumarno
Keyword(s):  
Social Action ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Smoothing Method ◽  
Legal Norms ◽  
The Public ◽  
Police Station ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Exponential Smoothing Method

Crime is a form of social action that violates legal norms relating to acts of seizing property rights of others, disturbing public order and peace, and killing one or a group of people. This has always been a concern for residents in various places in the Ngoro sub-district, therefore this information system was created to help police officers to find out where crimes have occurred. This information sfystem was created to predict the area in Ngoro sub-district using the Double Exponential Smoothing method. So that this system can predict which areas in the next month there will be no crime, and can assist the public in reporting the occurrence of criminal acts without having to go to the police station first. The Double Exponential Smoothing method was chosen by the author because this method can be used. The data used is data on theft of crime from 2017 – 2019. The results of forecasting in one village in Ngoro sub-district such as Manduro are 0.07426431198 if rounded up to 0.1 which is categorized as low crime and has a MAPE value of 7.94%. Based on the MAPE value of the forecasting results, it can be concluded that a good constant is between 0.1 – 0.3.

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