scholarly journals Nowcasting Influenza-like Illness Trends in Cameroon

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine O. Nsoesie ◽  
Olubusola Oladeji ◽  
Aristide S. Abah Abah ◽  
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Respiratory Infections ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Influenza Like Illness ◽  
Search Data ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Google Search

ABSTRACTAlthough acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, surveillance of diseases such as influenza is mostly neglected. Evaluating the usefulness of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance systems and developing approaches for forecasting future trends is important for pandemic preparedness. We applied statistical and machine learning models to forecast 2012 to 2018 trends in ILI cases reported by the Cameroon Ministry of Health (MOH), using Google searches for influenza symptoms, treatments, natural or traditional remedies as well as, infectious diseases with a high burden (i.e., AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis). The variance explained by the models based on Google search data were 87.7%, 79.1% and 52.0% for the whole country, the Littoral and Centre regions respectively. Our study demonstrates the need for developing contextualized approaches when using digital data for disease surveillance and demonstrates the potential usefulness of search data for monitoring ILI in sub-Saharan African countries.

scholarly journals Forecasting influenza-like illness trends in Cameroon using Google Search Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine O. Nsoesie ◽  
Olubusola Oladeji ◽  
Aristide S. Abah Abah ◽  
Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Digital Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Influenza Like Illness ◽  
Search Data ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Google Search

AbstractAlthough acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, surveillance of diseases such as influenza is mostly neglected. Evaluating the usefulness of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance systems and developing approaches for forecasting future trends is important for pandemic preparedness. We applied and compared a range of robust statistical and machine learning models including random forest (RF) regression, support vector machines (SVM) regression, multivariable linear regression and ARIMA models to forecast 2012 to 2018 trends of reported ILI cases in Cameroon, using Google searches for influenza symptoms, treatments, natural or traditional remedies as well as, infectious diseases with a high burden (i.e., AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis). The R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) were statistically similar across most of the methods, however, RF and SVM had the highest average R2 (0.78 and 0.88, respectively) for predicting ILI per 100,000 persons at the country level. This study demonstrates the need for developing contextualized approaches when using digital data for disease surveillance and the usefulness of search data for monitoring ILI in sub-Saharan African countries.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Crisis in Africa: Revisiting the Contributing Factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 64-67
Author(s):  
Ugochukwu A Eze ◽  
Kingsley I Ndoh ◽  
Kehinde K Kanmodi
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
Sub Saharan

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major threat to people and healthcare systems around the world. Each region of the world has had unique factors such as culture, demographics, socioeconomic and the political landscape that has either fueled or mitigated the severity of the pandemic. For example, the 2021 Indian Kumbh Mela festival fueled a devastating wave of the pandemic in India. Similarly, the pandemic in the United States has in part been fueled an epidemic of disinformation that led to a growing number of anti-vaxxers, and those who are opposed to COVID-19 prevention guidelines set by agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Africa, burial practices in Liberia and the Democratic Republic of Congo once fueled the Ebola epidemic. Likewise, in the context of COVID-19, there are factors that are unique to Africa that may have either fueled or mitigated the severity of the pandemic. The anti-COVID-19 measures in many African countries significantly affected household income without commensurate deployment of palliative measures to cushion the effect. Fortunately, the pandemic has run a relatively milder course in sub-Saharan Africa—defying earlier devastating projections. Therefore, to be prepared for the next pandemic, African governments must involve critical stakeholders such as religious and traditional leaders, strengthen current disease surveillance systems and invest in systems that encourage private investments in local vaccine manufacturing.

Crowdsourcing Covid-19 signals in sub-Saharan Africa: Leveraging digital contributor networks for participatory surveillance of Covid-19 symptoms and deaths (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngozi A Erondu ◽  
Sagal A Ali ◽  
Mohamed Ali ◽  
Schadrac C Agbla
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Health Seeking ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
The World ◽  
Sub Saharan

BACKGROUND In sub-Saharan Africa, underreporting of cases and deaths has been attributed to various factors including, weak disease surveillance, low health-seeking behaviour of flu like symptoms, and stigma of Covid-19. There is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 spread mimics transmission patterns of other countries across the world. Since the Covid-19 pandemic has changed the way research can be conducted and in light of restrictions on travel and risks to in-person data collection, innovative approaches to collecting data must be considered. Nearly 50% of Africa’s population is a unique mobile subscriber and it is one of the fastest growing smart-phone marketplaces in the world; hence, mobile phone platforms should be considered to monitor Covid-19 trends in the community. OBJECTIVE We demonstrate the use of digital contributor platforms to survey individuals about cases of flu-like symptoms and instances of unexplained deaths in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, and Zimbabwe. METHODS Rapid cross-sectional survey of individuals with severe flu and pneumonia symptoms and unexplained deaths in Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia and Zimbabwe RESULTS Using a non-health specific information platform, we found COVID-19 signals in five African countries, specifically: •Across countries, nearly half of the respondents (n=739) knew someone who had severe flu or pneumonia symptoms in recent months. •One in three respondents from Somalia and one in five from Zimbabwe respondents said they knew more than five people recently displaying flu and/or pneumonia symptoms. •In Somalia there were signals that a large number of people might be dying outside of health facilities, specifically in their homes or in IDP or refugee camps. CONCLUSIONS Existing digital contributor platforms with local networks are a non-traditional data source that can provide information from the community to supplement traditional government surveillance systems and academic surveys. We demonstrate that using these distributor networks to for community surveys can provide periodic information on rumours but could also be used to capture local sentiment to inform public health decision-making; for example, these insights could be useful to inform strategies to increase confidence in Covid19 vaccine. As Covid-19 continues to spread somewhat silently across sub-Saharan Africa, regional and national public health entities should consider expanding event-based surveillance sources to include these systems.

scholarly journals PO 8581 ZOONOTIC VIRAL ANTIGENS SURVEILLANCE IN HEALTHY POPULATIONS LIVING IN LAMBARÉNÉ, GABON

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (Suppl 3) ◽  
pp. A58.2-A58
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Bache ◽  
Marguerite M Loembe ◽  
Selidji T Agnandji
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Vaccine Trial ◽  
Viral Rna ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Zoonotic Infections ◽  
Viral Antigens ◽  
Sub Saharan

BackgroundWorldwide, viral zoonotic infections such as filoviruses, flaviviruses, nairoviruses and arenaviruses cause self-limiting to severe diseases. They are endemic in sub-Saharan Africa, causing sporadic outbreaks warranting the development of sustainable surveillance systems. In Gabon, Ebola outbreaks occurred from 1994 to 2002 causing 214 human cases and 150 deaths, while Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya virus outbreaks occurred between 2007 and 2010. Beyond these outbreaks, little is known about the epidemiology. Recently, in collaboration with the Japanese government, the Research and Health Ministries of Gabon supported the implementation of a biosecurity level-3 (BSL-3) laboratory at CERMEL in Lambaréné as a zoonotic disease surveillance unit. Start-off involved antigen detection and characterisation of circulating antibodies to targeted viral antigens in healthy populations. This study reports data from healthy participants (18–50 years) in a phase I rVSV-ZEBOV-GP Ebola vaccine trial.MethodsHundred-six (106) baseline samples were screened for Ebola, Dengue (serotypes) 1–4 and Chikungunya viral RNA by RT-PCR on serum. IgG ELISA on plasma was used to identify antibodies against: Zaire-Ebola-(EBOV-GP and EBOV-VP40), Marburg-(MARV-GP and MARV-VP40), Crimean Congo Haemorrhagic Fever-(CCHFV-GP), Lasa-(LASV-GPC and LASV-NP), Yellow Fever-(YFV-NS1), West-Nile-(WNV-NS1), Zika virus-(ZIKV-NS1), Chikungunya-(CHIKV-VLP) and Dengue-(DENV1-NS1,DENV2-NS1,DENV3-NS1,DENV4-NS1) virus antigens.ResultsNo viral RNA was isolated by RT-PCR in 106 samples. About 9% (10/106), 3% (3/106), 6% (6/106), 24% (25/106), 51% (54/106), 38% (40/106) and 36% (38/106) participants were seropositive for antibodies specific to EBOV-GP, MARV-GP, CCHFV-GP, YFV-NS1, WNV-NS1, ZIKV-NS1 and CHIKV-VLP, respectively. Twelve percent (12%; 13/106) of participants possessed antibodies specific to Zika, Chikungunya and Dengue 1–4 antigens. Six percent (6%; 6/106) of participants were seropositive for EBOV-GP and CCHFV-GP.ConclusionWe found antibodies to viral zoonotic infections among our healthy volunteers. Further assays, including neutralisation assays are being performed to ascertain the specificity of the antibodies. These findings, once confirmed, will provide insights into disease surveillance, vaccine trial designs, evaluation of post-vaccine immune responses, variability in adverse events and overall disease transmission patterns.

scholarly journals Geographic coverage of demographic surveillance systems for characterising the drivers of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. e000611 ◽  
Author(s):  
C Edson Utazi ◽  
Sujit K Sahu ◽  
Peter M Atkinson ◽  
Natalia Tejedor-Garavito ◽  
Christopher T Lloyd ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
International Health ◽  
Childhood Mortality ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Reduction Of Mortality ◽  
Demographic Surveillance Systems

A major focus of international health and development goals is the reduction of mortality rates in children under 5 years of age. Achieving this requires understanding the drivers of mortality and how they vary geographically to facilitate the targeting and prioritisation of appropriate interventions. Much of our knowledge on the causes of, and trends in, childhood mortality come from longitudinal demographic surveillance sites, with a renewed focus recently on the establishment and growth of networks of sites from which standardised outputs can facilitate broader understanding of processes. To ensure that the collective outputs from surveillance sites can be used to derive a comprehensive understanding and monitoring system for driving policy on tackling childhood mortality, confidence is needed that existing and planned networks of sites are providing a reliable and representative picture of the geographical variation in factors associated with mortality. Here, we assembled subnational data on childhood mortality as well as key factors known to be associated with it from household surveys in 27 sub-Saharan African countries. We then mapped the locations of existing longitudinal demographic surveillance sites to assess the extent of current coverage of the range of factors, identifying where gaps exist. The results highlight regions with unique combinations of factors associated with childhood mortality that are poorly represented by the current distribution of sites, such as southern Mali, central Nigeria and southern Zambia. Finally, we determined where the establishment of new surveillance systems could improve coverage.

Integrating technology and data in public health disease surveillance in Africa: case study of the AVADAR program (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chinedu Ejike Anarado ◽  
Loveth Metiboba ◽  
Faye Simmonds ◽  
Tope Falodun
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Wild Poliovirus ◽  
Timely Response ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Traditional Surveillance

BACKGROUND Sub-saharan Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the last frontiers with the prevalence of wild poliovirus (WPV). Following joint efforts and partnerships some of which were instituted in the last 20 years, Africa was declared free of WPV in August 2020. While efforts now focus on eliminating circulating vaccine derived poliovirus (cVDPV), it is important to review some of the interventions that resulted in a polio-free certification for the continent. OBJECTIVE The Auto-visual AFP detection and response (AVADAR) program was one of such interventions. AVADAR helped with a more focused, technology and data driven campaign, to ensure that surveillance was broad, inclusive, and responsive. With the infusion of mobile health technology, the project became a success as it reported, investigated and confirmed more cases of AFP compared to the existing traditional surveillance systems. This study attempts a review of the AVADAR intervention with a view to understand the role played by technology and data. METHODS This study comparatively reviewed the data generated over a three year period, across nine countries where the AVADAR project was implemented. It sought to understand how AVADAR was an improvement over traditional surveillance systems. RESULTS The AVADAR program confirmed more reported AFP cases, when compared with the traditional (paper-based) system. It was found that more true AFP cases were found through the AVADAR system. AVADAR accounted for 76% of cases reported across eight countries. CONCLUSIONS Evidently, data and technology - in this case - the AVADAR tool, addressed most of the challenges of Public Health Surveillance in the target countries. The challenge of erratic surveillance data gathering, and feedback was reduced as the AVADAR program demonstrated coordinated data gathering, active case search, timely response to alerts, and ultimately, improved confirmation of true cases. It contributes lessons that could be useful in enhancing surveillance systems across the developing world particularly in Africa.

scholarly journals Evaluation of influenza surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. e023335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evanson Zondani Sambala ◽  
Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe ◽  
Loveness M Imaan ◽  
Charles S Wiysonge
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Database Search ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity

IntroductionInfluenza infrastructure systems are crucial for maintaining surveillance operations, and for mitigating and responding to the disease. The role of surveillance is to isolate and identify as rapidly as possible any new influenza strains and collate this information for the preparedness for, and response to, an impending influenza activity in humans. However, sources of surveillance information, particularly in Africa, are meagre. This systematic review will critically evaluate the existing influenza surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa.Method and analysisWe will build multiple electronic database search strategies for use in PubMed, Scopus, African Journal Online, Web of Science and Google scholar to identify as many studies as possible. The medical subject heading and keywords will include a wide range of synonyms, both in index terms and free-text words. Database search will be followed by hand searching of reference lists of all relevant studies. We will include eligible full-text studies published from 2002 in order to coincide with the establishment of the integrated disease surveillance and response system in Africa by WHO. We will examine the influenza surveillance performance systems using the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on evaluating public health surveillance systems. Our outcome measures will include surveillance system attributes such as timeliness, sensitivity, specificity, acceptability, representativeness, simplicity and usefulness. We will conduct a narrative synthesis of all studies.Ethics and disseminationThis study does not require ethics approval because it uses publicly available data. Our findings will be published in a peer review journal and disseminated to policy makers.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42018103042.

Managing African Urbanization in the Context of Environmental Change

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuaib Lwasa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Services ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Urbanization Rate ◽  
Development And Management

Africa’s urbanization rate has increased steadily over the past three decades and is reported to be faster than in any other region in the world . It is estimated that by 2030, over half of the African population will be living in urban areas . But the nature of Africa’s urbanization and subsequent form of cities is yet to be critically analyzed in the context of city authorities’ readiness to address the challenges . Evidence is also suggesting that urbanization in African countries is increasingly associated with the high economic growth that has been observed in the last two decades . Both underlying and proximate drivers are responsible for the urbanization, and these include population dynamics, economic growth, legislative designation, increasing densities in rural centers, as well as the growth of mega cities such as Lagos, Cairo and Kinshasa, that are extending to form urban corridors . With the opportunities of urbanization in Sub–Saharan Africa, there are also challenges in the development and management of these cities . Those challenges include provision of social services, sustainable economic development, housing development, urban governance, spatial development guidance and environmental management, climate change adaptation, mitigation and disaster risk reduction . The challenge involves dealing with the development and infrastructure deficit, in addition to required adaption to and mitigation of climate change . This paper examines the current state of urban management in Africa .

Monetary Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Policy Regimes ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Policy Work ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Policy Guidance

Having broadly stabilized inflation over the past two decades, many policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa are now asking more of their monetary policy frameworks. They are looking to avoid policy misalignments and respond appropriately to both domestic and external shocks, including swings in fiscal policy and spikes in food and export prices. In many cases they are finding current regimes—often characterized as ‘money targeting’—lacking, with opaque and sometimes inconsistent objectives, inadequate transmission of policy to the economy, and difficulties in responding to supply shocks. At the same time, little existing research on monetary policy is targeted to low-income countries. What do we know about the empirics of monetary transmission in low-income countries? (How) Does monetary policy work in countries characterized by a huge share of food in consumption, underdeveloped financial markets, and opaque policy regimes? (How) Can we use methods largely derived in advanced countries to answer these questions? And (how) can we use the results to guide policymakers? This book draws on years of research and practice at the IMF and in central banks from the region to shed empirical and theoretical light on these questions and to provide practical tools and policy guidance. A key feature of the book is the application of dynamic general equilibrium models, suitably adapted to reflect key features of low-income countries, for the analysis of monetary policy in sub-Saharan African countries.

Financing Energy Access in Africa

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Kayode Oniemola ◽  
Jane Ezirigwe
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Energy Access ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Sustainable Technologies ◽  
Energy Technologies ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Diesel Motors

To achieve universal energy access will attract huge capital investments. If sub-Saharan Africa is to realize anything close to the ambitious goals set for its energy access, then new actors, innovative funding mechanisms and sustainable technologies will have to be attracted. Finance is needed for activities such as rural electrification, clean cooking facilities, diesel motors and generators, other renewable energy technologies, oil and gas infrastructures, etc. Finance is also needed in research and development of suitable technologies and funding options as well as investment in the capacity to formulate and implement sound energy policies. This chapter examines the varied financing options for energy access in sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that with appropriate laws in place and effective mechanism for implementation, African countries can significantly engage private sector financing, international financial institutions and foreign donors. The role of the law here will be in creating an enabling environment for financing.

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