scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of quarantine duration on COVID-19 transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ashcroft ◽  
Sonja Lehtinen ◽  
Daniel C. Angst ◽  
Nicola Low ◽  
Sebastian Bonhoeffer
Keyword(s):  
Generation Time ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Hygiene Measures ◽  
Returning Travellers ◽  
Transmission Prevention ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Release Strategy

AbstractThe numbers of confirmed cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are increasing in many places. Consequently, the number of individuals placed into quarantine is increasing too. The large number of individuals in quarantine has high societal and economical costs. There is ongoing debate about the duration of quarantine, particularly since the fraction of individuals in quarantine who eventually test positive is perceived as being low. We present a mathematical model that uses empirically determined distributions of incubation period, infectivity, and generation time to quantify how the duration of quarantine affects transmission. We use this model to examine two quarantine scenarios: traced contacts of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and returning travellers. We quantify the impact of shortening the quarantine duration in terms of prevented transmission and the ratio of prevented transmission to days spent in quarantine. We also consider the impact of i) test-and-release strategies; ii) reinforced hygiene measures upon release after a negative test; iii) the development of symptoms during quarantine; iv) the relationship between quarantine duration and adherence; and v) the fraction of individuals in quarantine that are infected. When considering the ratio of prevented transmission to days spent in quarantine, we find that the diminishing impact of longer quarantine on transmission prevention may support a quarantine duration below 10 days. This ratio can be increased by implementing a test-and-release strategy, and this can be even further strengthened by reinforced hygiene measures post-release. We also find that unless a test-and-release strategy is considered, the fraction of individuals in quarantine that are infected does not affect the optimal duration of quarantine under our utility metric. Ultimately, we show that there are quarantine strategies based on a test-and-release protocol that, from an epidemiological viewpoint, perform almost as well as the standard 10 day quarantine, but with a lower cost in terms of person days spent in quarantine. This applies to both travellers and contacts, but the specifics depend on the context.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of quarantine duration on COVID-19 transmission

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ashcroft ◽  
Sonja Lehtinen ◽  
Daniel C Angst ◽  
Nicola Low ◽  
Sebastian Bonhoeffer
Keyword(s):  
Incubation Period ◽  
Generation Time ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Ongoing Debate ◽  
Negative Test ◽  
Returning Travellers ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Individuals

The large number of individuals placed into quarantine because of possible SARS CoV-2 exposure has high societal and economic costs. There is ongoing debate about the appropriate duration of quarantine, particularly since the fraction of individuals who eventually test positive is perceived as being low. We use empirically determined distributions of incubation period, infectivity, and generation time to quantify how the duration of quarantine affects onward transmission from traced contacts of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and from returning travellers. We also consider the roles of testing followed by release if negative (test-and-release), reinforced hygiene, adherence, and symptoms in calculating quarantine efficacy. We show that there are quarantine strategies based on a test-and-release protocol that, from an epidemiological viewpoint, perform almost as well as a 10 day quarantine, but with fewer person days spent in quarantine. The findings apply to both travellers and contacts, but the specifics depend on the context.

scholarly journals On the relationship between serial interval, infectiousness profile and generation time

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (174) ◽  
pp. 20200756
Author(s):  
Sonja Lehtinen ◽  
Peter Ashcroft ◽  
Sebastian Bonhoeffer
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Generation Time ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Single Individual ◽  
Generation Times ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The timing of transmission plays a key role in the dynamics and controllability of an epidemic. However, observing generation times—the time interval between the infection of an infector and an infectee in a transmission pair—requires data on infection times, which are generally unknown. The timing of symptom onset is more easily observed; generation times are therefore often estimated based on serial intervals—the time interval between symptom onset of an infector and an infectee. This estimation follows one of two approaches: (i) approximating the generation time distribution by the serial interval distribution or (ii) deriving the generation time distribution from the serial interval and incubation period—the time interval between infection and symptom onset in a single individual—distributions. These two approaches make different—and not always explicitly stated—assumptions about the relationship between infectiousness and symptoms, resulting in different generation time distributions with the same mean but unequal variances. Here, we clarify the assumptions that each approach makes and show that neither set of assumptions is plausible for most pathogens. However, the variances of the generation time distribution derived under each assumption can reasonably be considered as upper (approximation with serial interval) and lower (derivation from serial interval) bounds. Thus, we suggest a pragmatic solution is to use both approaches and treat these as edge cases in downstream analysis. We discuss the impact of the variance of the generation time distribution on the controllability of an epidemic through strategies based on contact tracing, and we show that underestimating this variance is likely to overestimate controllability.

scholarly journals On the relationship between serial interval, infectiousness profile and generation time

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonja Lehtinen ◽  
Peter Ashcroft ◽  
Sebastian Bonhoeffer
Keyword(s):  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Generation Time ◽  
Time Distribution ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Single Individual ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Interval Distribution

The timing of transmission plays a key role in the dynamics and controllability of an epidemic. However, observing the distribution of generation times (time interval between the points of infection of an infector and infectee in a transmission pair) requires data on infection times, which are generally unknown. The timing of symptom onset is more easily observed; the generation time distribution is therefore often estimated based on the serial interval distribution (distribution of time intervals between symptom onset of an infector and an infectee). This estimation follows one of two approaches: i) approximating the generation time distribution by the serial interval distribution; or ii) deriving the generation time distribution from the serial interval and incubation period (time interval between infection and symptom onset in a single individual) distributions. These two approaches make different -- and not always explicitly stated -- assumptions about the relationship between infectiousness and symptoms, resulting in different generation time distributions with the same mean but unequal variances. Here, we clarify the assumptions that each approach makes and show that neither set of assumptions is plausible for most pathogens. However, the variances of the generation time distribution derived under each assumption can reasonably be considered as upper (approximation with serial interval) and lower (derivation from serial interval) bounds. Thus, we suggest a pragmatic solution is to use both approaches and treat these as edge cases in downstream analysis. We discuss the impact of the variance of the generation time distribution on the controllability of an epidemic through strategies based on contact tracing, and we show that underestimating this variance is likely to overestimate controllability.

Calculation of ceramic pot filter hydraulic conductivity using falling-head data

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. Elmore ◽  
W. G. Fahrenholtz ◽  
L. G. Glauber ◽  
A. N. Sperber
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Conductivity ◽  
Open Porosity ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Lower Cost ◽  
Pore Space ◽  
Porous Media Equations ◽  
Side Walls ◽  
Flow Through ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Flowrate is used as a predictor of ceramic pot filter (CPF) disinfection effectiveness, and the relationship between flowrate and porosity has been examined in several studies. However, hydraulic conductivity, not porosity, is the constant of proportionality that describes flow through porous media. Equations have been developed to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of CPF side walls and bottom as well an effective overall hydraulic conductivity. The equations are intended to be used with falling head data that may be collected in the field. The results of flowrate testing and open porosity testing using experimental CPFs provide preliminary indication that hydraulic conductivity is a better predictor of flowrate relative to open porosity. The results of the preliminary testing suggest that the shape and orientation of open pore space may have significant impact on filter flowrates, and that filter researchers and producers may want to evaluate the material used to form the pores as well as the impact of the filter formation process on any spatial orientation of open pore space. A better understanding of hydraulic conductivity may improve the production efficiency of filter factories which could make lower cost filters available to a greater number of households in developing areas.

scholarly journals The Impact of Mask Usage on COVID-19 Deaths: Evidence from US Counties Using a Quasi-Experimental Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Welsch
Keyword(s):  
Large Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Identification Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Individuals ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract I examine the relationship between mask usage and COVID-19 deaths at the county level. When examining this relationship, even the direction caused by the potential endogeneity bias is unclear. In one direction, characteristics that are known to correlate with a larger amount of potential COVID-19 deaths, such as an older population, may make people more likely to wear masks. This will cause a bias that makes mask usage look less effective than it truly is. In the other direction, areas with higher risk tolerances may have less mask usage, but may at the same time be engaging in other behavior that puts them at higher risk for contracting COVID-19. This will cause a bias that makes mask usage look more effective than it truly is. The identification approach exploits a large set of controls and employs percentage of vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election as an instrumental variable for mask usage. The main finding is that a one percentage point increase in the number of individuals who say they often or frequently wear a mask when within six feet of people will reduce COVID-19 deaths in a county by 10.5%, or six deaths in the average county.

Accent Policy and Accent Modification Enterprises as Potential Indicators of Intercultural Power Relations: A Call for an Updated Research Agenda

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brynne D. Ovalle ◽  
Rahul Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Identity Construction ◽  
Social Theory ◽  
Power Relations ◽  
Linguistic Diversity ◽  
Cultural Organization ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This article has two purposes: (a) to examine the relationship between intercultural power relations and the widespread practice of accent discrimination and (b) to underscore the ramifications of accent discrimination both for the individual and for global society as a whole. First, authors review social theory regarding language and group identity construction, and then go on to integrate more current studies linking accent bias to sociocultural variables. Authors discuss three examples of intercultural accent discrimination in order to illustrate how this link manifests itself in the broader context of international relations (i.e., how accent discrimination is generated in situations of unequal power) and, using a review of current research, assess the consequences of accent discrimination for the individual. Finally, the article highlights the impact that linguistic discrimination is having on linguistic diversity globally, partially using data from the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and partially by offering a potential context for interpreting the emergence of practices that seek to reduce or modify speaker accents.

Business: Making Cents of Coding Systems: Billing for Professional Services

2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-8
Author(s):  
Dee Adams Nikjeh
Keyword(s):  
Professional Services ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
Coding Systems ◽  
Language Pathology ◽  
Program Funding ◽  
Fee Schedule ◽  
Procedure Codes ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Administrators and supervisors face daily challenges over issues such as program funding, service fees, correct coding procedures, and the ever-changing healthcare regulations. Receiving equitable reimbursement for speech-language pathology and audiology services necessitates an understanding of federal coding and reimbursement systems. This tutorial provides information pertaining to two major healthcare coding systems and explains the relationship of these systems to clinical documentation, the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule and equitable reimbursement. An explanation of coding edits and coding modifiers is provided for use in those occasional atypical situations when the standard use of procedural coding may not be appropriate. Also included in this tutorial is a brief discussion of the impact that the Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act of 2008 (HR 6331 Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act [MIPPA], 2008) has had on the valuation of speech-language pathology procedure codes.

The Need to Belong and the Relationship Between Loneliness and Health

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 194-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Freda-Marie Hartung ◽  
Britta Renner
Keyword(s):  
Individual Differences ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Social Situation ◽  
First Year ◽  
Health State ◽  
Need To Belong ◽  
First Year University ◽  
Perceived Social Isolation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Humans are social animals; consequently, a lack of social ties affects individuals’ health negatively. However, the desire to belong differs between individuals, raising the question of whether individual differences in the need to belong moderate the impact of perceived social isolation on health. In the present study, 77 first-year university students rated their loneliness and health every 6 weeks for 18 weeks. Individual differences in the need to belong were found to moderate the relationship between loneliness and current health state. Specifically, lonely students with a high need to belong reported more days of illness than those with a low need to belong. In contrast, the strength of the need to belong had no effect on students who did not feel lonely. Thus, people who have a strong need to belong appear to suffer from loneliness and become ill more often, whereas people with a weak need to belong appear to stand loneliness better and are comparatively healthy. The study implies that social isolation does not impact all individuals identically; instead, the fit between the social situation and an individual’s need appears to be crucial for an individual’s functioning.

Investigating the Relationship Between Self-Esteem and Stigma Among Young Adults With History of Suicide Attempts

Crisis ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 265-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meshan Lehmann ◽  
Matthew R. Hilimire ◽  
Lawrence H. Yang ◽  
Bruce G. Link ◽  
Jordan E. DeVylder
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
High Risk Population ◽  
High Functioning ◽  
People With Mental Illness ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. Background: Self-esteem is a major contributor to risk for repeated suicide attempts. Prior research has shown that awareness of stigma is associated with reduced self-esteem among people with mental illness. No prior studies have examined the association between self-esteem and stereotype awareness among individuals with past suicide attempts. Aims: To understand the relationship between stereotype awareness and self-esteem among young adults who have and have not attempted suicide. Method: Computerized surveys were administered to college students (N = 637). Linear regression analyses were used to test associations between self-esteem and stereotype awareness, attempt history, and their interaction. Results: There was a significant stereotype awareness by attempt interaction (β = –.74, p = .006) in the regression analysis. The interaction was explained by a stronger negative association between stereotype awareness and self-esteem among individuals with past suicide attempts (β = –.50, p = .013) compared with those without attempts (β = –.09, p = .037). Conclusion: Stigma is associated with lower self-esteem within this high-functioning sample of young adults with histories of suicide attempts. Alleviating the impact of stigma at the individual (clinical) or community (public health) levels may improve self-esteem among this high-risk population, which could potentially influence subsequent suicide risk.

Assessing the Impact of Suicide Exclusion Periods on Life Insurance

Crisis ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 217-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Yip ◽  
David Pitt ◽  
Yan Wang ◽  
Xueyuan Wu ◽  
Ray Watson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Insurance ◽  
Accidental Death ◽  
Insurance Policy ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Insurance Policies ◽  
Suicidal Death ◽  
Insured Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insurance Data ◽  
The Relationship

Background: We study the impact of suicide-exclusion periods, common in life insurance policies in Australia, on suicide and accidental death rates for life-insured individuals. If a life-insured individual dies by suicide during the period of suicide exclusion, commonly 13 months, the sum insured is not paid. Aims: We examine whether a suicide-exclusion period affects the timing of suicides. We also analyze whether accidental deaths are more prevalent during the suicide-exclusion period as life-insured individuals disguise their death by suicide. We assess the relationship between the insured sum and suicidal death rates. Methods: Crude and age-standardized rates of suicide, accidental death, and overall death, split by duration since the insured first bought their insurance policy, were computed. Results: There were significantly fewer suicides and no significant spike in the number of accidental deaths in the exclusion period for Australian life insurance data. More suicides, however, were detected for the first 2 years after the exclusion period. Higher insured sums are associated with higher rates of suicide. Conclusions: Adverse selection in Australian life insurance is exacerbated by including a suicide-exclusion period. Extension of the suicide-exclusion period to 3 years may prevent some “insurance-induced” suicides – a rationale for this conclusion is given.

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