scholarly journals High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during end September beginning October 2020: REACT-1 round 5 updated report

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Random Samples ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
National Prevalence ◽  
Representative Samples

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 is quantifying prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among random samples of the population in England based on PCR testing of self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report results from the fifth round of observations for swabs collected from the 18th September to 5th October 2020. This report updates and should be read alongside our round 5 interim report.MethodsRepresentative samples of the population aged 5 years and over in England with sample size ranging from 120,000 to 175,000 people at each round. Prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimation of reproduction number (R) and time trends between and within rounds using exponential growth or decay models.Results175,000 volunteers tested across England between 18th September and 5th October. Findings show a national prevalence of 0.60% (95% confidence interval 0.55%, 0.71%) and doubling of the virus every 29 (17, 84) days in England corresponding to an estimated national R of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27). These results correspond to 1 in 170 people currently swab-positive for the virus and approximately 45,000 new infections each day. At regional level, the highest prevalence is in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North East with strongest regional growth in North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and West Midlands.ConclusionRapid growth has led to high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England, with highest rates in the North of England. Prevalence has increased in all age groups, including those at highest risk. Improved compliance with existing policy and, as necessary, additional interventions are required to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and limit the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19.

scholarly journals High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity and increasing R number in England during October 2020: REACT-1 round 6 interim report

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
East Midlands ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Previous Round ◽  
Time Critical ◽  
Estimate Prevalence

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 measures prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in representative samples of the population in England using PCR testing from self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report interim results for round 6 of observations for swabs collected from the 16th to 25th October 2020 inclusive.MethodsREACT-1 round 6 aims to collect data and swab results from 160,000 people aged 5 and above. Here we report results from the first 86,000 individuals. We estimate prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, reproduction numbers (R) and temporal trends using exponential growth or decay models. Prevalence estimates are presented both unweighted and weighted to be representative of the population of England, accounting for response rate, region, deprivation and ethnicity. We compare these interim results with data from round 5, based on swabs collected from 18th September to 5th October 2020 inclusive.ResultsOverall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28% or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round. Infections were doubling every 9.0 (6.1, 18) days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) compared to 1.16 (1.05, 1.27) in the previous round. Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72% (2.12%, 3.50%), up from 0.84% (0.60%, 1.17%), and the North West at 2.27% (1.90%, 2.72%), up from 1.21% (1.01%, 1.46%), and lowest in South East at 0.55% (0.45%, 0.68%), up from 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Clustering of cases was more prevalent in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, West Midlands and East Midlands. Interim estimates of R were above 2 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but with wide confidence intervals. Nationally, prevalence increased across all age groups with the greatest increase in those aged 55-64 at 1.20% (0.99%, 1.46%), up 3-fold from 0.37% (0.30%, 0.46%). In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81% (0.58%, 0.96%) up 2-fold from 0.35% (0.28%, 0.43%). Prevalence remained highest in 18 to 24-year olds at 2.25% (1.47%, 3.42%).ConclusionThe co-occurrence of high prevalence and rapid growth means that the second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage. Whether via regional or national measures, it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below one if further hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19 are to be avoided.

scholarly journals REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
David Haw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Successful Vaccine ◽  
Random Samples ◽  
Rapid Replacement ◽  
National Prevalence

Abstract Background England entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases and hospitalisations have started to increase since the end of May as the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant increases in frequency. The final step of relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in England has been delayed from 21 June to 19 July 2021. Methods The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmision-1 (REACT-1) study measures the prevalence of swab-positivity among random samples of the population of England. Round 12 of REACT-1 obtained self-administered swab collections from participants from 20 May 2021 to 7 June 2021; results are compared with those for round 11, in which swabs were collected from 15 April to 3 May 2021. Results Between rounds 11 and 12, national prevalence increased from 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%) to 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). During round 12, we detected exponential growth with a doubling time of 11 (7.1, 23) days and an R number of 1.44 (1.20, 1.73). The highest prevalence was found in the North West at 0.26% (0.16%, 0.41%) compared to 0.05% (0.02%, 0.12%) in the South West. In the North West, the locations of positive samples suggested a cluster in Greater Manchester and the east Lancashire area. Prevalence in those aged 5-49 was 2.5 times higher at 0.20% (0.16%, 0.26%) compared with those aged 50 years and above at 0.08% (0.06%, 0.11%). At the beginning of February 2021, the link between infection rates and hospitalisations and deaths started to weaken, although in late April 2021, infection rates and hospital admissions started to reconverge. When split by age, the weakened link between infection rates and hospitalisations at ages 65 years and above was maintained, while the trends converged below the age of 65 years. The majority of the infections in the younger group occurred in the unvaccinated population or those without a stated vaccine history. We observed the rapid replacement of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 with the Delta variant during the period covered by rounds 11 and 12 of the study. Discussion The extent to which exponential growth continues, or slows down as a consequence of the continued rapid roll-out of the vaccination programme, including to young adults, requires close monitoring. Data on community prevalence are vital to track the course of the epidemic and inform ongoing decisions about the timing of further lifting of restrictions in England.

scholarly journals High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during September 2020: interim report of round 5 of REACT-1 study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Interim Report ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Random Samples ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
Using Data

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 is a community survey of PCR confirmed swab-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 among random samples of the population in England. This interim report includes data from the fifth round of data collection currently underway for swabs sampled from the 18th to 26th September 2020.MethodsRepeated cross-sectional surveys of random samples of the population aged 5 years and over in England with sample size ranging from 120,000 to 160,000 people in each round of data collection. Collection of self-administered nose and throat swab for PCR and questionnaire data. Prevalence of swab-positivity by round and by demographic variables including age, sex, region, ethnicity. Estimation of reproduction number (R) between and within rounds, and time trends using exponential growth or decay model. Assessment of geographical clustering based on boundary-free spatial model.ResultsOver the 9 days for which data are available, we find 363 positives from 84,610 samples giving a weighted prevalence to date of 0.55% (0.47%, 0.64%) in round 5. This implies that 411,000 (351,000, 478,000) people in England are virus-positive under the assumption that the swab assay is 75% sensitive. Using data from the most recent two rounds, we estimate a doubling time of 10.6 (9.4, 12.0) days covering the period 20th August to 26th September, corresponding to a reproduction number R of 1.47 (1.40, 1.53). Using data only from round 5 we estimate a reproduction number of 1.06 (0.74, 1.46) with probability of 63% that R is greater than 1. Between rounds 4 and 5 there was a marked increase in unweighted prevalence at all ages. In the most recent data, prevalence was highest in the 18 to 24 yrs age group at 0.96% (0.68%, 1.36%). At 65+ yrs prevalence increased ∼7-fold between rounds 4 and 5 from 0.04% (0.03%, 0.07%) to 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Prevalence increased in all regions between rounds 4 and 5, giving the highest unweighted prevalence in round 5 in the North West at 0.86% (0.69%, 1.06%). In London, prevalence increased ∼5-fold from 0.10% (0.06%, 0.17%) to 0.49% (0.36%, 0.68%). Regional R values ranged from 1.32 (1.16,1.50) in Yorkshire and the Humber to 1.63 (1.42, 1.88) in the East Midlands over the same period. In the most recent data, there was extensive clustering in the North West, Midlands and in and around London with pockets of clustering in other regions including the South West, North East and East of England. Odds of swab-positivity were ∼2-fold higher in people of Asian and Black ethnicity compared with white participants.ConclusionRapid growth has led to high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England among all regions and age groups, including those age groups at highest risk. Although there is evidence of a recent deceleration in the epidemic, current levels of prevalence will inevitably result in additional hospitalisations and mortality in coming weeks. A re-doubling of public health efforts is needed to return to a declining phase of the epidemic.

A new volcanic province: evidence from glacial erratics in western North Greenland

2000 ◽  
pp. 35-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Dawes ◽  
Bjørn Thomassen ◽  
T.I. Hauge Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Rocks ◽  
Iron Formation ◽  
Banded Iron Formation ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Volcanic Province ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Surficial Deposits ◽  
North Greenland

NOTE: This article was published in a former series of GEUS Bulletin. Please use the original series name when citing this article, for example: Dawes, P. R., Thomassen, B., & Andersson, T. H. (2000). A new volcanic province: evidence from glacial erratics in western North Greenland. Geology of Greenland Survey Bulletin, 186, 35-41. https://doi.org/10.34194/ggub.v186.5213 _______________ Mapping and regional geological studies in northern Greenland were carried out during the project Kane Basin 1999 (see Dawes et al. 2000, this volume). During ore geological studies in Washington Land by one of us (B.T.), finds of erratics of banded iron formation (BIF) directed special attention to the till, glaciofluvial and fluvial sediments. This led to the discovery that in certain parts of Daugaard-Jensen Land and Washington Land volcanic rocks form a common component of the surficial deposits, with particularly colourful, red porphyries catching the eye. The presence of BIF is interesting but not altogether unexpected since BIF erratics have been reported from southern Hall Land just to the north-east (Kelly & Bennike 1992) and such rocks crop out in the Precambrian shield of North-West Greenland to the south (Fig. 1; Dawes 1991). On the other hand, the presence of volcanic erratics was unexpected and stimulated the work reported on here.

scholarly journals Updated Incidence of Thyroid Cancer in the North East Region of Romania after 35 Years of Chernobyl Fallout. Is There a Link between?

Diagnostics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 907
Author(s):  
Laura Teodoriu ◽  
Maria Christina Ungureanu ◽  
Letitia Leustean ◽  
Cristina Preda ◽  
Delia Ciobanu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Chernobyl Fallout ◽  
Statistical Correlations ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
East Region ◽  
Radioactive Cloud ◽  
The Moment

Thyroid cancer (TC) represents a worldwide problem, the consistent growth of the incidence increment issues about management of risk factors and curative treatment. Updated statistical data are not complete in the North East region of Romania and need to be improved. Therefore, through this study, we aim to renew the existing data on thyroid cancer. We conducted a retrospective study covering a period of 10 years. Data were collected from a hospital information system (InfoWorld) between 2009 and 2019. Patients’ age groups were stratified in relation with the age at the moment of the Chernobyl event. A database was obtained (Microsoft Excel) and statistical correlations were applied. In the studied period, 1159 patients were diagnosed: 968 females and 191 males, distributed by region, with the highest addressability in Iasi (529), followed by neighboring counties. Age distribution displayed that most of the thyroid cancers were in the range 4060 years old (50.94%), followed by 60–80 years old (32.41%). Most patients were diagnosed with papillary carcinoma 63.10%, then follicular 14.7%, medullary 6.74% and undifferentiated 1.02%. Romania was in the vicinity of the radioactive cloud at Chernobyl fallout, so we must deliberate whether the increased incidence of thyroid cancer in the age group 40–60 years is associated with radiogenicity (iodine 131) given the fact that over has 35 years and the half-life of other radioisotopes like Caesium-137 and Strontium -90 is completed.

Excavations at Fishbourne, 1963. Third Interim Report

1964 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Keyword(s):  
Interim Report ◽  
The West ◽  
Civic Society ◽  
North West ◽  
The Third ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Set Up

Early in 1963 much of the land occupied by the Roman building at Fishbourne was purchased by Mr. I. D. Margary, M.A., F.S.A., and was given to the Sussex Archaeological Trust. The Fishbourne Committee of the trust was set up to administer the future of the site. The third season's excavation, carried out at the desire of this committee, was again organized by the Chichester Civic Society.1 About fifty volunteers a day were employed from 24th July to 3rd September. Excavation concentrated upon three main areas; the orchard south of the east wing excavated in 1962, the west end of the north wing, and the west wing. In addition, trial trenches were dug at the north-east and north-west extremities of the building and in the area to the north of the north wing. The work of supervision was carried out by Miss F. Pierce, M.A., Mr. B. Morley, Mr. A. B. Norton, B.A., and Mr. J. P. Wild, B.A. Photography was organized by Mr. D. B. Baker and Mrs. F. A. Cunliffe took charge of the pottery and finds.

scholarly journals On tho proportions of the prevailing winds, the mean temperature, and depth of rain in the climate of London, computed through a cycle of Eighteen Years, or periods of the Moon’s declination

1843 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 300-300
Keyword(s):  
The Moon ◽  
Fair Weather ◽  
North West ◽  
West Wind ◽  
North East ◽  
East Wind ◽  
The North ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Solar Influence

In this paper the author investigates the periodical variations of the winds, rain and temperature, corresponding to the conditions of the moon’s declination, in a manner similar to that he has already followed in the case of the barometrical variations, on a period of years extending from 1815 to 1832 inclusive. In each case he gives tables of the average quantities for each week, at the middle of which the moon is in the equator, or else has either attained its maximum north or south declination. He thus finds that a north-east wind is most promoted by the constant solar influence which causes it, when the moon is about the equator, going from north to south; that a south-east wind, in like manner, prevails most when the moon is proceeding to acquire a southern declination ; that winds from the south and west blow more when the moon is in her mean degrees of declination, going either way, than with a full north or south declination ; and that a north-west wind, the common summer and fair weather wind of the climate, affects, in like manner, the mean declination, in either direction, in preference to the north or south, and most when the moon is coming north. He finds the average annual depth of rain, falling in the neighbourhood of London, is 25’17 inches.

scholarly journals Psychiatry in Ireland

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Latif
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
European Economic Community ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Republic Of Ireland ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Republic

Ireland is the third largest island in Europe and the twentieth largest island in the world, with an area of 86 576 km2; it has a total population of slightly under 6 million. It lies to the north-west of continental Europe and to the west of Great Britain. The Republic of Ireland covers five-sixths of the island; Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, is in the north-east. Twenty-six of the 32 counties are in the Republic of Ireland, which has a population of 4.2 million, and its capital is Dublin. The other six counties are in Northern Ireland, which has a population of 1.75 million, and its capital is Belfast. In 1973 both parts of Ireland joined the European Economic Community. This article looks at psychiatry in the Republic of Ireland.

Part VI. The Cyclopean Terrace Building and the Deposit of Pottery beneath It

1954 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 267-291
Author(s):  
Elizabeth B. Wace
Keyword(s):  
Contour Line ◽  
The South ◽  
Main Road ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
South West

The Cyclopean Terrace Building lies to the north-west of the Lion Gate on the northern end of the Panagia Ridge and faces almost due west across the valley of the Kephissos and modern main road from Corinth to Argos. It lies just below the 200 m. contour line, and one terrace below the houses excavated in 1950–51 by Dr. Papadimitriou and Mr. Petsas to the east at the same end of the ridge. The area contains a complex of buildings, both successive and contemporary, and in view of the discovery of structures both to the south-west and, by the Greek Archaeological Service, to the north-east it is likely that this whole slope was covered by a portion of the outer town of Mycenae. This report will deal only with the structure to which the name Cyclopean Terrace Building was originally given, the so-called ‘North Megaron’, supported by the heavy main terrace wall.The excavation of this structure was begun in 1923. The main terrace wall was cleared and two L.H. IIIC burials discovered in the top of the fill in the south room. In 1950 it was decided to attempt to clear this building entirely in an endeavour to find out its date and purpose. The clearing was not, however, substantially completed until the close of the 1953 excavation season, and this report presents the available evidence for the date as determined by the pottery found beneath the building; the purpose is still a matter for study, though various tentative conclusions can be put forward.

scholarly journals Investigations of detrital zircon, rutile and titanite from present-day Labrador drainage basins: fingerprinting the Grenvillean front

1969 ◽  
pp. 77-80
Author(s):  
Tonny B. Thomsen ◽  
Christian Knudsen ◽  
Alana M. Hinchey
Keyword(s):  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Sedimentary Basins ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
Drainage Basins ◽  
Grenville Province ◽  
Collaborative Project ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Three Samples

A multidisciplinary provenance study was conducted on stream sediment samples from major rivers in the eastern part of Labrador, Canada (Fig. 1). Th e purpose was to fi ngerprint the sources that deliver material to the stream sediments and to the reservoir sand units deposited off shore in the sedimentary basins in the Labrador Sea. We used a multimineral U-Pb geochronological approach employing rutile and titanite in addition to zircon to obtain unbiased age data. Th e purpose of this was to characterise the diff erent igneous and metamorphic episodes that occurred in Labrador, which is an area with highly variable geology characterised by the Palaeoproterozoic south-eastern Churchill province in the north-west, the Archaean Nain plutonic suite in the north-east, the Palaeoproterozoic Makkovik province in the east and the Mesoproterozoic Grenville Province to the south. Th e fi eld work was carried out in 2012 and 2013 and the study is a collaborative project between the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland and the Geological Survey of Newfoundland and Labrador. In this paper we focus on three samples from the southern part of the study area where two parts of the Grenville orogeny are found (Fig. 1).

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