scholarly journals REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant

Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
David Haw ◽  
...  

Abstract Background England entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases and hospitalisations have started to increase since the end of May as the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant increases in frequency. The final step of relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in England has been delayed from 21 June to 19 July 2021. Methods The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmision-1 (REACT-1) study measures the prevalence of swab-positivity among random samples of the population of England. Round 12 of REACT-1 obtained self-administered swab collections from participants from 20 May 2021 to 7 June 2021; results are compared with those for round 11, in which swabs were collected from 15 April to 3 May 2021. Results Between rounds 11 and 12, national prevalence increased from 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%) to 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). During round 12, we detected exponential growth with a doubling time of 11 (7.1, 23) days and an R number of 1.44 (1.20, 1.73). The highest prevalence was found in the North West at 0.26% (0.16%, 0.41%) compared to 0.05% (0.02%, 0.12%) in the South West. In the North West, the locations of positive samples suggested a cluster in Greater Manchester and the east Lancashire area. Prevalence in those aged 5-49 was 2.5 times higher at 0.20% (0.16%, 0.26%) compared with those aged 50 years and above at 0.08% (0.06%, 0.11%). At the beginning of February 2021, the link between infection rates and hospitalisations and deaths started to weaken, although in late April 2021, infection rates and hospital admissions started to reconverge. When split by age, the weakened link between infection rates and hospitalisations at ages 65 years and above was maintained, while the trends converged below the age of 65 years. The majority of the infections in the younger group occurred in the unvaccinated population or those without a stated vaccine history. We observed the rapid replacement of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 with the Delta variant during the period covered by rounds 11 and 12 of the study. Discussion The extent to which exponential growth continues, or slows down as a consequence of the continued rapid roll-out of the vaccination programme, including to young adults, requires close monitoring. Data on community prevalence are vital to track the course of the epidemic and inform ongoing decisions about the timing of further lifting of restrictions in England.

Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 is quantifying prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among random samples of the population in England based on PCR testing of self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report results from the fifth round of observations for swabs collected from the 18th September to 5th October 2020. This report updates and should be read alongside our round 5 interim report.MethodsRepresentative samples of the population aged 5 years and over in England with sample size ranging from 120,000 to 175,000 people at each round. Prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimation of reproduction number (R) and time trends between and within rounds using exponential growth or decay models.Results175,000 volunteers tested across England between 18th September and 5th October. Findings show a national prevalence of 0.60% (95% confidence interval 0.55%, 0.71%) and doubling of the virus every 29 (17, 84) days in England corresponding to an estimated national R of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27). These results correspond to 1 in 170 people currently swab-positive for the virus and approximately 45,000 new infections each day. At regional level, the highest prevalence is in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North East with strongest regional growth in North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and West Midlands.ConclusionRapid growth has led to high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England, with highest rates in the North of England. Prevalence has increased in all age groups, including those at highest risk. Improved compliance with existing policy and, as necessary, additional interventions are required to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and limit the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Glory Ngongeh Amambo ◽  
Raphael Awah Abong ◽  
Fanny Fri Fombad ◽  
Abdel Jelil Njouendou ◽  
Franck Nietcho ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The mass drug administration of ivermectin for onchocerciasis control has contributed to a significant drop in Loa loa microfilaria loads in humans that has, in turn, led to reduction of infection levels in Chrysops vectors. Accurate parasite detection is essential for assessing loiasis transmission as it provides a potential alternative or indirect strategy for addressing the problem of co-endemic loiasis and lymphatic filariasis through the Onchocerciasis Elimination Programme and it further reflects the true magnitude of the loiasis problem as excess human mortality has been reported to be associated with the disease. Although microscopy is the gold standard for detecting the infection, the sensitivity of this method is compromised when the intensity of infection is low. The loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay of parasite DNA is an alternative method for detecting infection which offers operational simplicity, rapidity and versatility of visual readout options. The aim of this study was to validate the Loa loa LAMP assay for the detection of infected Chrysops spp. under experimental and natural field conditions. Methods Two sets of 18 flies were fed on volunteers with either a low (< 10 mf/ml) or high (> 30,000mf/ml) microfilarial load. The fed flies were maintained under laboratory conditions for 14 days and then analysed using LAMP for the detection of L. loa infection. In addition, a total of 9270 flies were collected from the north-west, east, and south-west regions (SW 1 and 2) of Cameroon using sweep nets and subjected to microscopy (7841 flies) and LAMP (1291 flies plus 138 nulliparous flies) analyses. Results The LAMP assay successfully detected parasites in Chrysops fed on volunteers with both low and high microfilariaemic loads. Field validation and surveillance studies revealed LAMP-based infection rates ranging from 0.5 to 31.6%, with the lowest levels in SW 2 and the highest infection rates in SW 1. The LAMP assay detected significantly higher infection rates than microscopy in four of the five study sites. Conclusion This study demonstrated the potential of LAMP as a simple surveillance tool. It was found to be more sensitive than microscopy for the detection of experimental and natural L. loa infections in Chrysops vectors.


Thorax ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (3) ◽  
pp. 262-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Marie Lewis ◽  
Bianca De Stavola ◽  
Pia Hardelid

BackgroundRates of hospital admissions for bronchiolitis vary seasonally and geographically across England; however, seasonal differences by area remain unexplored. We sought to describe spatial variation in the seasonality of hospital admissions for bronchiolitis and its association with local demographic characteristics.MethodsSingleton children born in English National Health Service hospitals between 2011 and 2016 (n=3 727 013) were followed up for 1 year. Poisson regression models with harmonic functions to model seasonal variations were used to calculate weekly incidence rates and peak timing of bronchiolitis admissions across English regions and clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). Linear regression was used to estimate the joint association of population density and deprivation with incidence and peak timing of bronchiolitis admissions at the CCG level.ResultsBronchiolitis admission rates ranged from 30.9 per 1000 infant-years (95% CI 30.4 to 31.3) in London to 68.7 per 1000 (95% CI 67.9 to 69.5) in the North West. Across CCGs, there was a 5.3-fold variation in incidence rates and the epidemic peak ranged from week 49.3 to 52.2. Admission rates were positively associated with area-level deprivation. CCGs with earlier peak epidemics had higher population densities, and both high and low levels of deprivation were associated with earlier peak timing.ConclusionsApproximately one quarter of the variation in admission rates and two-fifths of the variation in peak timing of hospital admissions for bronchiolitis were explained by local demographic characteristics. Implementation of an early warning system could help to prepare hospitals for peak activity and to time public health messages.


2004 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 83-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judy Harrison ◽  
Barry Traill

Aims and MethodThe UK Government is promoting three types of specialist team in psychiatry: assertive outreach, crisis resolution and early intervention in psychosis. Policy guidance suggests that psychiatrists be recruited to work exclusively within these teams, but little is known about the views of psychiatrists regarding their development. A postal survey was undertaken to seek the views of consultant psychiatrists in the North West.ResultsSeventy per cent of psychiatrists responded to the questionnaire. Equal numbers agreed and disagreed with the development of specialist roles. Few services had been able to recruit to extra consultant sessions within the new teams and only a third of consultants believed the resources so far available to be reasonable. Overall views of the new teams were positive (mean scores 6.36, 6.51 and 6.03 on a 1–10 visual analogue scale for assertive outreach, crisis resolution and early onset psychosis teams). Consultants are particularly likely to believe that the new teams will increase patient satisfaction and provide a welcome change in role for some psychiatrists. A total of 64% of consultants believe that crisis resolution services could reduce hospital admissions, compared with 41% for assertive outreach and 31% for early onset psychosis teams. The concern most often voiced was that new services are being developed at the expense of existing teams.Clinical ImplicationsConsultants perceive benefits associated with the new teams but are concerned about their impact on the rest of the organisation. If resource and recruitment issues can be addressed, consultants could prove to be supportive of these new models of service.


2021 ◽  
pp. 107755872110352
Author(s):  
Esmaeil Khedmati Morasae ◽  
Tanith C. Rose ◽  
Mark Gabbay ◽  
Laura Buckels ◽  
Colette Morris ◽  
...  

National financial incentive schemes for improving the quality of primary care have come under criticism in the United Kingdom, leading to calls for localized alternatives. This study investigated whether a local general practice incentive-based quality improvement scheme launched in 2011 in a city in the North West of England was associated with a reduction in all-cause emergency hospital admissions. Difference-in-differences analysis was used to compare the change in emergency admission rates in the intervention city, to the change in a matched comparison population. Emergency admissions rates fell by 19 per 1,000 people in the years following the intervention (95% confidence interval [17, 21]) in the intervention city, relative to the comparison population. This effect was greater among more disadvantaged populations, narrowing socioeconomic inequalities in emergency admissions. The findings suggest that similar approaches could be an effective component of strategies to reduce unplanned hospital admissions elsewhere.


2021 ◽  
Vol 108 (Supplement_7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Baseerat Anwar ◽  
Christopher Blenkharn ◽  
Praveen Rao ◽  
Bilal Quddus ◽  
Jawad Ul Islam ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims The diagnosis of prostate cancer has evolved over the past 2 decades with rapid changes occurring in the last 5 years. Traditionally transrectal prostate biopsies were the standard. However due to the risk of sepsis and sub optimal diagnostic accuracy, this method has been superseded by biopsies of the prostate now being performed via the transperineal (TP) route more frequently. Our hospital was the first in our region to use the PrecisionPoint Transperineal Access system to perform TP biopsy under local anaesthetic, and here we present our experience of the first 100 cases. Aims of this study included determining cancer detection rate and MRI correlation, as well as looking at rates of complications post procedure. Method This was a retrospective study with 100 patients in our cohort. We assessed MRI and histology correlation and post procedure complication rates. Results Histology in 72% of patients was positive for prostate cancer. Correlation between MRI findings and histology were noted to be high. As Likert score decreased, so did percentage of positive biopsies. Rates of significant complications were low, with no hospital admissions required following the procedure. Conclusion Our study demonstrates TP biopsy using the PrecisionPoint transperineal access system is a safe and effective method of detecting prostate cancer, which is well tolerated by patients.


Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 measures prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in representative samples of the population in England using PCR testing from self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report interim results for round 6 of observations for swabs collected from the 16th to 25th October 2020 inclusive.MethodsREACT-1 round 6 aims to collect data and swab results from 160,000 people aged 5 and above. Here we report results from the first 86,000 individuals. We estimate prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, reproduction numbers (R) and temporal trends using exponential growth or decay models. Prevalence estimates are presented both unweighted and weighted to be representative of the population of England, accounting for response rate, region, deprivation and ethnicity. We compare these interim results with data from round 5, based on swabs collected from 18th September to 5th October 2020 inclusive.ResultsOverall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28% or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round. Infections were doubling every 9.0 (6.1, 18) days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) compared to 1.16 (1.05, 1.27) in the previous round. Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72% (2.12%, 3.50%), up from 0.84% (0.60%, 1.17%), and the North West at 2.27% (1.90%, 2.72%), up from 1.21% (1.01%, 1.46%), and lowest in South East at 0.55% (0.45%, 0.68%), up from 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Clustering of cases was more prevalent in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, West Midlands and East Midlands. Interim estimates of R were above 2 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but with wide confidence intervals. Nationally, prevalence increased across all age groups with the greatest increase in those aged 55-64 at 1.20% (0.99%, 1.46%), up 3-fold from 0.37% (0.30%, 0.46%). In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81% (0.58%, 0.96%) up 2-fold from 0.35% (0.28%, 0.43%). Prevalence remained highest in 18 to 24-year olds at 2.25% (1.47%, 3.42%).ConclusionThe co-occurrence of high prevalence and rapid growth means that the second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage. Whether via regional or national measures, it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below one if further hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19 are to be avoided.


Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
David Haw ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundIn England, hospitalisations and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 have been falling consistently since January 2021 during the third national lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic. The first significant relaxation of that lockdown occurred on 8 March when schools reopened.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study augments routine surveillance data for England by measuring swab-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 in the community. The current round, round 10, collected swabs from 11 to 30 March 2021 and is compared here to round 9, in which swabs were collected from 4 to 23 February 2021.ResultsDuring round 10, we estimated an R number of 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.81, 1.21). Between rounds 9 and 10 we estimated national prevalence has dropped by ∼60% from 0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%) in February to 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%) in March. There were substantial falls in weighted regional prevalence: in South East from 0.36% (0.29%, 0.44%) in round 9 to 0.07% (0.04%, 0.12%) in round 10; London from 0.60% (0.48%, 0.76%) to 0.16% (0.10%, 0.26%); East of England from 0.47% (0.36%, 0.60%) to 0.15% (0.10%, 0.24%); East Midlands from 0.59% (0.45%, 0.77%) to 0.19% (0.13%, 0.28%); and North West from 0.69% (0.54%, 0.88%) to 0.31% (0.21%, 0.45%). Areas of apparent higher prevalence remain in parts of the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber. The highest prevalence in March was found among school-aged children 5 to 12 years at 0.41% (0.27%, 0.62%), compared with the lowest in those aged 65 to 74 and 75 and over at 0.09% (0.05%, 0.16%). The close approximation between prevalence of infections and deaths (suitably lagged) is diverging, suggesting that infections may have resulted in fewer hospitalisations and deaths since the start of widespread vaccination.ConclusionWe report a sharp decline in prevalence of infections between February and March 2021. We did not observe an increase in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 following the reopening of schools in England, although the decline of prevalence appears to have stopped. Future rounds of REACT-1 will be able to measure the rate of growth or decline from this current plateau and hence help assess the effectiveness of the vaccination roll-out on transmission of the virus as well as the potential size of any third wave during the ensuing months.


2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. e000729
Author(s):  
Patrick Bradley ◽  
Freddy Frost ◽  
Kukatharmini Tharmaratnam ◽  
Daniel G Wootton

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing, yet, due to the lack of a COVID-19-specific tool, clinicians must use pre-existing illness severity scores for initial prognostication. However, the validity of such scores in COVID-19 is unknown.MethodsThe North West Collaborative Organisation for Respiratory Research performed a multicentre prospective evaluation of adult patients admitted to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 during a 2-week period in April 2020. Clinical variables measured as part of usual care at presentation to the hospital were recorded, including the Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood Pressure and Age Above or Below 65 Years (CURB-65), National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and Quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day mortality.ResultsData were collected for 830 people with COVID-19 admitted across seven hospitals. By 30 days, a total of 300 (36.1%) had died and 142 (17.1%) had been in the intensive care unit. All scores underestimated mortality compared with pre-COVID-19 cohorts, and overall prognostic performance was generally poor. Among the ‘low-risk’ categories (CURB-65 score<2, NEWS2<5 and qSOFA score<2), 30-day mortality was 16.7%, 32.9% and 21.4%, respectively. NEWS2≥5 had a negative predictive value of 98% for early mortality. Multivariable logistic regression identified features of respiratory compromise rather than circulatory collapse as most relevant prognostic variables.ConclusionIn the setting of COVID-19, existing prognostic scores underestimated risk. The design of new prognostic tools should focus on features of respiratory compromise rather than circulatory collapse. We provide a baseline set of variables which are relevant to COVID-19 outcomes and may be used as a basis for developing a bespoke COVID-19 prognostication tool.


BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S74-S75
Author(s):  
Ritika Devadas ◽  
Douglas Murdie ◽  
Idris Thomas ◽  
Rhona Hannah ◽  
Wiktoria Karbowniczek ◽  
...  

AimsCOVID-19 has had a significant impact on healthcare provision, accessibility and psychiatric presentations. We aim to investigate the impact of the pandemic on psychiatric services and the severity of presentations in Edinburgh, with a particular focus on the North-West Edinburgh Community Mental Health Team (NW CMHT).MethodMeasures of the impact of the pandemic on NW CMHT were identified as referral numbers from primary care and Did Not Attend (DNA) rates. Royal Edinburgh Hospital admissions, detentions under the Mental Health (Care and Treatment) (Scotland) Act 2003 (MHA) and Out of Hours (OOH) contacts were used as proxy measures to explore the severity and urgency of presentations.Quantitative data focussing on these parameters for patients aged 18–65 years in NW CMHT in 2019 and 2020 were collected from NHS Lothian Analytical Services. OOH data were only available Edinburgh-wide. All data were anonymised in line with NHS Lothian Information Governance Policy.In order to assess the impact on staff, a questionnaire was created and disseminated, with qualitative data returned anonymously.ResultReferrals to NW CMHT decreased by 9.3% in 2020 (n = 2164) compared to 2019 (n = 2366). Referrals in April (n = 81) and May (n = 102) 2020 were far below the monthly average across the two years (n = 188).Appointment numbers were very similar in 2019 (n = 3542) and 2020 (n = 3514). Despite this, DNA and cancellation rates decreased by 3.94% in 2020. Questionnaire results illustrated some of the challenges for staff of working during a pandemic.Admissions to hospital reduced by 6.8% in 2020 (n = 219 vs n = 235). While MHA detentions in NW Edinburgh increased by only 1.8% (n = 173 vs n = 170), new Compulsory Treatment Orders (CTO) increased by 60%. Furthermore, OOH contacts across Edinburgh increased by 45.2% when compared to 2019.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic altered the way patients accessed healthcare. Uncertainty of the public in accessing primary care services early in the pandemic may have contributed to reduced referral numbers.The increase in CTOs is suggestive of severe relapses in previously stable patients or new episodes of illness. The pandemic may have contributed to a reduction in early recognition, and referral, of those with major mental disorders resulting in more protracted or severe illness episodes. The increase in OOH crisis contacts supports such a hypothesis.Despite what would be expected, DNA and cancellation rates in NW CMHT reduced. The contribution of telemedicine to this warrants further exploration as a means of delivering healthcare in an efficient and accessible way.


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