scholarly journals Mitigation policies and vaccination in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naiara C.M. Valiati ◽  
Daniel A.M. Villela
Keyword(s):  
Human Population ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Health Surveillance ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Vulnerable People ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Mitigation Policies

SummaryThe perspective of vaccination to protect human population from infection of SARS-CoV-2 virus has great potential to control the pandemic. Nevertheless, vaccine planning requires phased introduction with age groups, health workers, and vulnerable people. We developed a mathematical model capable of capturing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination aligned with social distancing, isolation measures, and vaccination. The city of Rio de Janeiro provides a case study to analyze possible scenarios including non–pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination in the epidemic scenario. Our results shows that a combination of different policies such as case isolation and social distancing are more effective for mitigating the epidemics. Furthermore, these policies will still be necessary in a phased vaccination program. Therefore, health surveillance activities should be maintained along with vaccination planning in scheduled groups until a large vaccinated coverage is reached.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV−2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID−19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1 st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals Attack rate and the price of SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcisio Rocha Filho ◽  
José Mendes ◽  
Carson Chow ◽  
James Phillips ◽  
Antônio Cordeiro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Contact Matrix ◽  
The City ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract We introduce a compartmental model with age structure to study the dynamics of the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. The contagion matrix in the model is given by the product of a probability per contact with a contact matrix explicitly taking into account the contact structure among different age groups. The probability of contagion per contact is considered as time dependent to represent non-pharmaceutical interventions, and is fitted from the time series of deaths. The approach is used to study the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the main Brazilian cities and compared to two good quality serological surveys. We also discuss with some detail the case of the city of Manaus which raised special attention due to a previous report of three-quarters attack rate by the end of 2020. We discuss estimates for Manaus and all Brazilian cities with a total population of more than one million. We also estimate the attack rate with respect to the total population, in each Brazilian state by January, 1st 2021 and May, 23 2021.

scholarly journals Economic and Environmental Costs and Benefits of Paper Mulberry: A Case Study of Islamabad-Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 5-12
Author(s):  
Anwar Hussain ◽  
Syed Umar Hayat Shah
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Pollen Allergy ◽  
Environmental Costs ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Cost Treatment ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Capital Development ◽  
The City ◽  
Benefits And Costs

Plants and trees make our cities more attractive and provide many ecosystem services but some of these also cost society in the form pollen allergy. According to an estimates 60-70 percent of the trees in Islamabad are of Paper mulberry. Thirty Percent people are effected each year from pollen allergy in Islamabad. This study evaluated age and gender wise effects of Pollen Allergy on health followed by proposing options for the alternatives of Paper Mulberry. The economic and environmental costs and benefits of Paper mulberry and its alternative plants were also quantified. The annual benefits and costs of Paper Mulberry and its alternative plants were estimated through “The National Tree Benefits Calculator”. Descriptive statistics along with expert opinion method was used for the analysis of the data. The pollen allergy affect children more as compared to other age groups and females more as compared to male. Urban respondents were effected more by pollen allergy as compared to rural respondents. Most of the respondents were found effected in the month of March. The average monthly health expenditures of the respondents from pollen were Rs. 879. Pine Rexburg and Kachnar are viable alternatives for Paper Mulberry from both economic and environmental viewpoints. Based on the findings it is concluded that Pine Rexburg and Kachnar are the best alternative for Paper Mulberry in Islamabad. The Capital Development Authority should replace Pine Rexburg and Kachnar with Paper Mulberry in the city. Besides, Government should arrange awareness program especially in the pollen month (March) and should provide free of cost treatment and preventives for the pollen patients.

scholarly journals Familial traits of attached and unattached earlobe in human population of different age groups- A case study of district Nawabshah, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 112-115
Author(s):  
Sharmeen Najeeb Ashraf ◽  
Nehal Najeeb Ashraf ◽  
Haiqa Sami ◽  
Bisma Aslam ◽  
Sabin Muhammad Israr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Biology ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Dominant Feature

This study aimed to evaluate frequency of attached earlobes (dominant) and unattached earlobes (recessive) traits in humans of different age groups. This study was conducted in the Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics of Shaheed Benazir Bhutto University, Shaheed Benazir Abad from September to October 2020. A total of 200 families with attached and unattached earlobes were included by using non-probability convenient sampling. Data was collected regarding attached and unattached earlobes of different people. The data was collected and analysed by using SPSS version 21.0. Results of the study suggested that unattached earlobes were dominant feature, and the attached earlobe feature appears to be recessive among all 200 families. We observed that the dominant feature of the unattached earlobe was more common in the 1 to 20 years’ age group, while the recessive feature of the attached earlobe was common in 31 to 45 years old age group. The study concluded that unattached earlobes can be observed in people of every age group and associated with family traits.

scholarly journals Estimating local outbreak risks and the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions in age-structured populations: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca A. Lovell-Read ◽  
Silvia Shen ◽  
Robin N. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Process Model ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including school closures, workplace closures and social distancing policies have been employed worldwide to reduce transmission and prevent local outbreaks. However, transmission and the effectiveness of NPIs depend strongly on age-related factors including heterogeneities in contact patterns and pathophysiology. Here, using SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we develop a branching process model for assessing the risk that an infectious case arriving in a new location will initiate a local outbreak, accounting for the age-stratification of the host population. We show that the risk of a local outbreak depends on the age of the index case, and we explore the effects of NPIs targeting individuals of different ages. Social distancing policies that reduce contacts outside of schools and workplaces and target individuals of all ages are predicted to reduce local outbreak risks substantially, whereas school closures have a more limited impact. When different NPIs are used in combination, the risk of local outbreaks can be eliminated. We also show that heightened surveillance of infectious individuals reduces the level of NPIs required to prevent local outbreaks, particularly if enhanced surveillance of symptomatic cases is combined with efforts to find and isolate nonsymptomatic infected individuals. Our results reflect real-world experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, during which combinations of intense NPIs have reduced transmission and the risk of local outbreaks. The general modelling framework that we present can be used to estimate local outbreak risks during future epidemics of a range of pathogens, accounting fully for age-related factors.

scholarly journals Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiz Henrique Duczmal ◽  
Alexandre Celestino Leite Almeida ◽  
Denise Bulgarelli Duczmal ◽  
Claudia Regina Lindgren Alves ◽  
Flávia Costa Oliveira Magalhães ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Group Interactions ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Infected People ◽  
R Language ◽  
Minas Gerais State ◽  
Supplementary Material ◽  
Belo Horizonte ◽  
The City

Abstract: Considering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)-Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material.

scholarly journals Fatores de Antropização no Isolamento e Distanciamento Sociais durante a Pandemia DE COVID-19: estudo de caso em cidade local da amazônia estuarina

2020 ◽  
pp. 227
Author(s):  
JOSÉ GUILHERME DOS SANTOS FERNANDES ◽  
MARCOS CÉSAR DA ROCHA SERUFFO ◽  
RONDINELL AQUINO PALHA ◽  
RENATA SILVA SALES ◽  
SUZANNE ALBUQUERQUE DOS SANTOS
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Isolation ◽  
Social Distance ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Amazon River ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Estuarine Zone ◽  
The City

RESUMOConsiderando a pandemia atual, este artigo aborda fatores de antropização que auxiliem indicadores de distanciamento social considerando realidades próprias da região amazônica. Foi conduzida a aplicação de formulário com moradores da cidade de São Caetano de Odivelas - Pará, localizada na zona estuarina do rio Amazonas, quanto à concordância, discordância ou indiferença por decorrência de determinações governamentais e de saúde pública. Observou-se que há dificuldade em relacionar demandas locais com as nacionais e globais, acarretando em comportamentos que podem comprometer a eficiência do isolamento social, assim, são propostos indicadores para distanciamento social.Palavras-chave: Indicadores. Coronavírus. Antropização. Isolamento Social. Distanciamento Social. Cidade Local.Anthropization factors in social isolation and distancing during the Covid-19 Pandemic: case study in a local city of estuarian amazon ABSTRACTConsidering the current pandemic, this article addresses anthropization factors that help social distancing indicators focused on realities specific to the Amazon region. A form was applied to residents of the city of São Caetano de Odivelas - Pará, located in the estuarine zone of the Amazon River, regarding agreement, disagreement or indifference due to government and public health determinations. It was observed that there is difficulty in relating local demands with national and global ones, resulting in behaviors that can compromise the efficiency of social isolation, thus, indicators for social distance are proposed.Keywords: Indicators. Coronavirus. Anthropization, Social Isolation. Social Distancing. Local City.

scholarly journals covid19.Explorer: a web application and R package to explore United States COVID-19 data

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e11489
Author(s):  
Liam J. Revell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
R Package ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
The City ◽  
Death Data ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Appearing at the end of 2019, a novel virus (later identified as SARS-CoV-2) was characterized in the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. As of the time of writing, the disease caused by this virus (known as COVID-19) has already resulted in over three million deaths worldwide. SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths, however, have been highly unevenly distributed among age groups, sexes, countries, and jurisdictions over the course of the pandemic. Herein, I present a tool (the covid19.Explorer R package and web application) that has been designed to explore and analyze publicly available United States COVID-19 infection and death data from the 2020/21 U.S. SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The analyses and visualizations that this R package and web application facilitate can help users better comprehend the geographic progress of the pandemic, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as lockdowns and other measures, which have varied widely among U.S. states), and the relative risks posed by COVID-19 to different age groups within the U.S. population. The end result is an interactive tool that will help its users develop an improved understanding of the temporal and geographic dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, accessible to lay people and scientists alike.

scholarly journals covid19.Explorer: A web application and R package to explore United States COVID-19 data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liam J. Revell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
R Package ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
The City ◽  
Death Data ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

ABSTRACTBeginning at the end of 2019, a novel virus (later identified as SARS-CoV-2) was characterized in the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province, China. As of the time of writing, the disease caused by this virus (known as COVID-19) has already resulted in over 2 million deaths worldwide. SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths, however, have been highly unevenly distributed among age groups, sexes, countries, and jurisdictions over the course of the pandemic. Herein, I present a tool (the covid19.Explorer R package and web application) that has been designed to explore and analyze publicly available United States COVID-19 infection and death data from the 2020/21 U.S. SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The analyses and visualizations that this R package and web application facilitate can help users better comprehend the geographic progress of the pandemic, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as lockdowns and other measures, which have varied widely among U.S. states), and the relative risks posed by COVID-19 to different age groups within the U.S. population. The end result, I hope, is an interactive tool that will help its users develop a improved understanding of the temporal and geographic dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, accessible to lay people and scientists alike.

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