Vertical social distancing policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract: Considering numerical simulations, this study shows that the so-called vertical social distancing health policy is ineffective to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. We present the SEIR-Net model, for a network of social group interactions, as a development of the classic mathematical model of SEIR epidemics (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (symptomatic and asymptomatic)-Removed). In the SEIR-Net model, we can simulate social contacts between groups divided by age groups and analyze different strategies of social distancing. In the vertical distancing policy, only older people are distanced, whereas in the horizontal distancing policy all age groups adhere to social distancing. These two scenarios are compared to a control scenario in which no intervention is made to distance people. The vertical distancing scenario is almost as bad as the control, both in terms of people infected and in the acceleration of cases. On the other hand, horizontal distancing, if applied with the same intensity in all age groups, significantly reduces the total infected people “flattening the disease growth curve”. Our analysis considers the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, but similar conclusions apply to other cities as well. Code implementation of the model in R-language is provided in the supplementary material.

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Binge drinking and associated factors among adolescents in a city in southeastern Brazil: a longitudinal study

Cadernos de Saúde Pública ◽

10.1590/0102-311x00183115 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 33 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Kelly Oliva Jorge ◽

Raquel Conceição Ferreira ◽

Efigênia Ferreira e Ferreira ◽

Miriam Pimenta Vale ◽

Ichiro Kawachi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Binge Drinking ◽

Social Vulnerability ◽

Associated Factors ◽

Alcoholic Beverages ◽

Southeastern Brazil ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Minas Gerais State ◽

Belo Horizonte ◽

Substance Involvement ◽

The City

Abstract: The aim of this study was to investigate changes in the frequency of binge drinking and associated factors in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The sample consisted of 436 adolescents. Data collection involved the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test. Ordinal logistic regression was used in the multivariate analysis. An increase in the frequency of binge drinking was found among adolescents who lived in areas of greater social vulnerability (OR = 1.64; 95%CI: 1.01-2.68), those whose mothers consumed alcoholic beverages (OR = 1.75; 95%CI: 1.05-2.92), those whose fathers consumed alcoholic beverages (OR = 2.02; 95%CI: 1.11-3.68), those with an increased risk of tobacco use (OR = 2.82; 95%CI: 1.07-7.42) and those who attended religious services (OR = 2.10; 95%CI: 1.30-3.38). Knowledge regarding factors associated with a change in the frequency of binge drinking among adolescents can assist in the establishment of public policies directed at health promotion and the prevention of adverse health conditions.

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Utilização de cinco bases cartográficas distintas para a determinação de áreas de preservação permanente no município de Rio Acima, MG: divergências en-tre os resultados / Using five different cartographic bases for determining permanent preservation area

Caderno de Geografia ◽

10.5752/p.2318-2962.2016v26nesp1p136 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 136

Author(s):

Felipe Silva Guimarães ◽

Lucas Da Silva Guimarães

Keyword(s):

Digital Elevation Models ◽

Minas Gerais ◽

Metropolitan Region ◽

Second Stage ◽

Digital Elevation ◽

Minas Gerais State ◽

Vector Base ◽

The Law ◽

Belo Horizonte ◽

The City

O estudo foi realizado no município de Rio Acima, localizado ao sul da região metropolitana de Belo Horizonte - MG. Na primeira etapa, foi feita a determinação das áreas de preservação permanente (APPs) do município, segundo a Lei 12.651 e a resolução CONAMA 303/2002 (esta última para delimitar as APPs de topo de morro), utilizando cinco bases topográficas distintas: vetorização de cartas do IBGE na escala de 1:50.000, imagem SRTM, Topodata, ASTER V2 e uma base vetorial disponibilizada pelo Codemig com curvas de nível equidistantes em 10 metros. Na segunda etapa, foram calculadas as áreas de cada uma das classes de APP resultantes dos mapeamentos feitos a partir de todas as bases e, em seguida, estes valores foram comparados. Ao final, foi observado que os resultados obtidos a partir da base do IBGE e da imagem ASTER V2 são os que apresentam característica mais restritiva, ou seja, com maiores áreas de preservação. Por outro lado, o mapa de áreas de preservação permanente confeccionado a partir da imagem SRTM foi o que apresentou caráter menos restritivo. Neste estudo também são discutidas outras diferenças entre os mapas elaborados a partir das cinco bases. Palavras–chave: Município de Rio Acima, áreas de preservação permanente, modelos digitais de elevação, resolução espacial. Abstract This study was conducted in the municipality of Rio Acima (Minas Gerais State) located in the southern Belo Horizonte metropolitan region. In the first stage five different topographic bases were used to lay down the city permanent preservation areas (PPA) according to the Law 12,651 and CONAMA resolution 303/2002 (the latter to delimit the hilltop’s PPAs PPAs). These bases are the following: the vector at a 1:50.000 scale provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), SRTM image, image provided by INPE Topodata project, ASTER V2 Image and a vector base released by Codemig with 10 meters contour distance. In the second stage the areas of each one PPA classes were calculated resulting from all mapping bases. Then these values were compared. Finally it was observed that the results obtained from the ASTER V2 image and IBGE base are those with more restrictive features or in other words the result with lager PPAs. Moreover, the map of permanent preservation areas made from SRTM image showed the least restrictive character. This study also discusses other differences between the maps drawn from the five bases. Keywords: Rio Acima municipality, permanent preservation areas, digital elevation models, spacial resolution.

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Visceral leishmaniasis control actions: epidemiological indicators for its effectiveness evaluation in a Brazilian urban area

Cadernos de Saúde Pública ◽

10.1590/0102-311x00060219 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Maria Helena Franco Morais ◽

Paulo Chagastelles Sabroza ◽

José Eduardo Pessanha ◽

Andrea Sobral

Keyword(s):

Information System ◽

Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽

Elisa Test ◽

Canine Population ◽

Minas Gerais State ◽

Belo Horizonte ◽

The Relationship ◽

The City ◽

Testing Coverage ◽

Ratio Unit

Abstract: This research applies indicators concerning control of the visceral leishmaniasis canine reservoir in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Data were obtained from the Zoonoses Control Information System (SCZOO) and the Brazilian Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN) database. First we analyzed (i) existing associations between canine epidemiological indicators, where the dependent variable was the canine seroprevalence A (2007 to 2013), and the independent variables were, as follows: canine seroprevalence B (2006 to 2012); percentage of positive dogs by ELISA test reagents that were not euthanized; the relationship between the human and canine population; canine population testing coverage by census surveys; and the years of study (2006 to 2013); (ii) then, we examined the association between human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) cases between 2007 to 2013 and the mentioned variables related to dogs and years. Statistical analysis was done by a generalized linear model (GLM). One unit increases in canine seroprevalence B and canine seroprevalence A were associated to 13% and 12% increases in HVL rates, respectively. The increase in one human/dog ratio unit was associated with a 13% decrease in HVL rates. Canine seroprevalence, human/dog ratio and non-euthanasia of ELISA-reactive dogs in the environment were adequate indicators for analyzing the canine enzootic transmission and the occurrence of HVL cases.

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Prevalence of ARVI, influenza, and COVID-19 pathogens in individuals without symptoms of respiratory infection

Journal of microbiology epidemiology immunobiology ◽

10.36233/0372-9311-152 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 98 (4) ◽

pp. 383-396

Author(s):

S. B. Yatsyshina ◽

M. V. Mamoshina ◽

M. A. Elkina ◽

G. V. Sharukho ◽

Yu. I. Raspopova ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Prolonged Exposure ◽

Age Groups ◽

Central Research Institute ◽

Nucleic Acid Amplification ◽

Central Research ◽

Social Contacts ◽

Infected People ◽

Epidemic Season ◽

Epidemic Period ◽

High Level

Introduction. SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted by infected people without or with mild symptoms of acute respira-tory infection (ARI). Monitoring based on nucleic acid amplification techniques is used to measure the prevalence of ARI pathogens and to assess the effectiveness of preventive measures.The aim is to measure the prevalence of pathogens causing ARIs of viral etiology, influenza, and COVID-19 among individuals without ARI symptoms throughout age groups, to trace changes in the epidemic situation by weekly monitoring pathogens during the inter-epidemic period and at the beginning of a typical ARI epidemic season, to assess the effectiveness of medical masks for prevention of the above infections.Materials and methods. A total of 14,119 people (including 4,582 children) without ARI symptoms went through examination, including questionnaire surveys, in 26 regions of Russia from August to October 2020. Nasopharyn-geal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested by using AmpliSens ARVI-screen-FL, AmpliSens Influenza virus A/B-FL, and AmpliSens Cov-Bat-FL reagent kits (The Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, Moscow).Results. 11.1% of the tested samples showed positive results; the rhinovirus prevailed (7.32%), while SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 1.66%. In autumn, the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected cases increased from 0.49% to 4.02% (p < 0.001). The SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was up to 1010 copies/mL.Conclusions. Differences in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and rhinovirus among the age groups and over time were found and analyzed. Using of medical masks reduced the risk of infection with respiratory viruses and with SARS-CoV-2 by 51% and 34%, respectively. In case of prolonged exposure to a COVID-19 patient, healthy people must use a respirator for more effective protection. The individuals whose work was associated with a high level of social contacts were infected more rarely than other individuals in the same age group (p = 0.001); this fact supports the importance of anti-epidemic measures and commitment to their adherence by people whose profession entails frequent social contacts.

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Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants

10.1101/2021.06.30.21259771 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bjarke Frost Nielsen ◽

Andreas Eilersen ◽

Lone Simonsen ◽

Kim Sneppen

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Model ◽

Viral Load ◽

Competitive Advantage ◽

Selection Pressure ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Social Contacts ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Infected People ◽

Ancestral Strain

The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people causes 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variations in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evolutionary pressure which favours variants with lower levels of overdispersion. We find that overdispersion is an evolutionarily unstable trait, with a tendency for more homogeneously spreading variants to eventually dominate.

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Mitigation policies and vaccination in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

10.1101/2021.01.27.21250651 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Naiara C.M. Valiati ◽

Daniel A.M. Villela

Keyword(s):

Human Population ◽

Health Workers ◽

Age Groups ◽

Health Surveillance ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Vulnerable People ◽

The City ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽

Mitigation Policies

SummaryThe perspective of vaccination to protect human population from infection of SARS-CoV-2 virus has great potential to control the pandemic. Nevertheless, vaccine planning requires phased introduction with age groups, health workers, and vulnerable people. We developed a mathematical model capable of capturing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination aligned with social distancing, isolation measures, and vaccination. The city of Rio de Janeiro provides a case study to analyze possible scenarios including non–pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination in the epidemic scenario. Our results shows that a combination of different policies such as case isolation and social distancing are more effective for mitigating the epidemics. Furthermore, these policies will still be necessary in a phased vaccination program. Therefore, health surveillance activities should be maintained along with vaccination planning in scheduled groups until a large vaccinated coverage is reached.

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Local protection bubbles: an interpretation of the decrease in the velocity of coronavirus's spread in the city of Sao Paulo

10.1101/2020.08.11.20173039 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jose Paulo Guedes Pinto ◽

Patricia Camargo Magalhaes ◽

Gerusa Maria Figueiredo ◽

Domingos Alves ◽

Diana Maritza Segura-Angel

Keyword(s):

Ad Hoc ◽

Transmission Rate ◽

Herd Immunity ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

São Paulo ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Infected People ◽

Epidemic Curve ◽

Multi Agent ◽

The City

After four months of dealing with the pandemic, the city of Sao Paulo entered a phase of relaxed social-distancing measures in July 2020, and saw its social isolation rate fall at the same time as the number of cases, deaths, and hospital bed occupation declined. We use a calibrated multi-agent model to describe these dynamics. We assert here that this phenomenon can be understood as the result of local protective bubbles formed in the city's sub-environments at the same time that there was an exhaustion of contagion networks. Both reduce the velocity of the virus's spread, causing temporary reductions in the epidemic curve, albeit in an unstable equilibrium. These local bubbles can burst anytime and anywhere due to the reintroduction of a few infected people at the same time that there is a reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), such as social-distancing practices. It is important to stress that this hypothesis aligns with the dynamics of the virus's spread observed so far, without needing ad hoc suppositions about natural collective immunity thresholds or heterogeneity in the population's transmission rate, which come with the risk of making mistaken predictions that may could lead to the loss of many lives. The safe way to move ahead is to continue doing all we can to avoid new infections until a vaccine is found that properly and safely creates herd immunity.

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Corona Virus (COVID-19) Awareness Assessment - A Survey Study Amongst the Indian Population

Journal of Clinical and Medical Research ◽

10.37191/mapsci-2582-4333-2(3)-041 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gabriela Fernandes

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Social Media ◽

Health Care Workers ◽

Indian Population ◽

Age Groups ◽

Survey Study ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Corona Virus ◽

Care Workers ◽

Amount Of Knowledge

Aim: The aim of this survey study was to assess the level of awareness amongst Indian population regarding the COVID-19. Method: A survey was conducted amongst 745 individuals to assess their level of awareness regarding COVID-19 and steps to be taken for its prevention. Result: The results revealed that a considerable percentage of individuals learned about the pandemic through social media and news and were aware of the mode of spread of the virus and also steps to be taken to prevent it from spreading. But considerable percentage of people was also not fully aware regarding the age groups this virus will be affecting. Conclusion: Upon understanding the percentage of people not aware about the age groups this virus will be affecting, keeping in mind good amount of knowledge amongst individuals about maintaining hygiene and social distancing, this survey would help the health care workers to create awareness regarding the effect of this virus on different age groups to help prevent carelessness amongst youth in following the regime.

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MORADIA, POSSE E PROPRIEDADE NOS PROCESSOS JUDICIAIS DA OCUPAÇÃO URBANA CAMILO TORRES, EM BELO HORIZONTE/ HOUSING, OWNERSHIP AND PROPERTY IN COURT LAWSUITS OF CAMILO TORRESURBAN OCCUPATION IN THE CITY OF BELO HORIZONTE

Revista Culturas Jurídicas ◽

10.22409/rcj.v4i8.182 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (8) ◽

Author(s):

Maria Tereza Fonseca Dias ◽

Juliano Dos Santos Calixto ◽

Carolina Spyer Vieira Assad ◽

Amanda Reis Da Silva ◽

Henrique Gomides Zatti

Keyword(s):

Belo Horizonte ◽

The City

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Garbage codes as causes of death and quality of mortality statistics in Belo Horizonte, Brazil

European Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1093/eurpub/ckaa165.053 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽

Author(s):

L Ishitani ◽

R Teixeira ◽

D Abreu ◽

L Paixão ◽

E França

Keyword(s):

Causes Of Death ◽

Health Planning ◽

Age Groups ◽

International Classification Of Diseases ◽

Mortality Statistics ◽

Classification Of Diseases ◽

Icd 10 ◽

Hospital Deaths ◽

Belo Horizonte

Abstract Background Quality of cause-of-death information is fundamental for health planning. Traditionally, this quality has been assessed by the analysis of ill-defined causes from chapter XVIII of the International Classification of Diseases - 10th revision (ICD-10). However, studies have considered other useless diagnoses for public health purposes, defined, in conjunction with ill-defined causes, as garbage codes (GC). In Brazil, despite the high completeness of the Mortality Information System, approximately 30% of deaths are attributable to GCs. This study aims to analyze the frequency of GCs in Belo Horizonte municipality, the capital of Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Methods Data of deaths from 2011 to 2013 in Belo Horizonte were analyzed. GCs were classified according to the GBD 2015 study list. These codes were classified in: a) GCs from chapter XVIII of ICD-10 (GC-R), and b) GC from other chapters of ICD-10 (GC-nonR). Proportions of GC were calculated by sex, age, and place of occurrence. Results In Belo Horizonte, from the total of 44,123 deaths, 5.5% were classified as GC-R. The majority of GCs were GC-nonR (25% of total deaths). We observed a higher proportion of GC in children (1 to 4 years) and in people aged over 60 years. GC proportion was also higher in females, except in the age-groups under 1 year and 30-59 years. Home deaths (n = 7,760) had higher proportions of GCs compared with hospital deaths (n = 30,182), 36.9% and 28.7%, respectively. The leading GCs were the GC-R other ill-defined and unspecified causes of death (ICD-10 code R99)), and the GCs-nonR unspecified pneumonia (J18.9), unspecified stroke (I64), and unspecified septicemia (A41.9). Conclusions Analysis of GCs is essential to evaluate the quality of mortality information. Key messages Analysis of ill-defined causes (GC-R) is not sufficient to evaluate the quality of information on causes of death. Causes of death analysis should consider the total GC, in order to advance the discussion and promote adequate intervention on the quality of mortality statistics.

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