scholarly journals COVID-19 spread and Weather in U.S. states: a cross-correlative study on summer-autumn 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel de Margerie
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Outdoor Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Behavioral Adaptations ◽  
Cross Covariance ◽  
Social Restriction ◽  
Indoor Spaces

AbstractAn effect of weather on sars-cov-2 transmission is regularly proposed as a putative cause of unexplained fluctuations of covid-19 new cases, but clear data supporting this hypothesis remains to be presented. Here I measured longitudinal time-series correlations between outdoor temperature, humidity and covid-19 reproduction number (Rt) in the 50 U.S. states (+DC). In order to mitigate the confounding influence of varying social restriction measures, the analysis spans a 5-month period during summer and autumn 2020 when restrictions were comparatively lower and more stable. I used a cross-covariance approach to account for a variable delay between infection and case report. For a delay near 11 days, most U.S. states exhibited a negative correlation between outdoor temperature and Rt, as well as between absolute humidity and Rt (mean r = −0.35). In 21 states, the correlation was strong (r < −0.5). Individual state data are presented, and associations between cold and/or dry weather episodes and short-term new case surges are proposed. After identifying potential confounding factors, I discuss 3 possible causal mechanisms that could explain a correlation between outdoor weather and indoor disease transmission: behavioral adaptations to cold weather, respiratory tract temperature, and the importing of outdoor absolute humidity to indoor spaces.

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hasan ◽  
Y. Nasution ◽  
H. Susanto ◽  
E.R.M. Putri ◽  
V.R. Tjahjono ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Evaluation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Restriction ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Health Organization

AbstractThis paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (ℛt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by ℛt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

scholarly journals An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia, 2020-2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amna Tariq ◽  
Tsira Chakhaia ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Alexander Ewing ◽  
Xinyi Hua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Richards Model ◽  
First Case ◽  
Reproduction Numbers

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 4,240,982 cases and 106,544 deaths as of June 30, 2021. This motivates an investigation of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics at the national and regional level using case incidence data. Mathematical models are employed to estimate the transmission potential and perform short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory in Colombia. Furthermore, geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 in Colombia is examined along with the analysis of mobility and social media trends, showing that the increase in mobility in July 2020 and January 2021 were correlated with surges in case incidence. The estimation of national and regional reproduction numbers shows sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Moreover, most recent estimates of reproduction number are >1.0 at the national and regional levels as of May 30, 2021. Further, the 30-day ahead short-term forecasts obtained from Richards model present a sustained decline in case counts in contrast to the sub-epidemic and GLM model. Nevertheless, our spatial analysis in Colombia shows distinct variations in incidence rate patterns across different departments that can be grouped into four distinct clusters. Lastly, the correlation of social media trends and adherence to social distancing measures is observed by the fact that a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued.

scholarly journals The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in different socioeconomic populations in Kuwait: a modeling study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatima Khadadah ◽  
Abdullah A. Al-Shammari ◽  
Ahmad Alhashemi ◽  
Dari Alhuwail ◽  
Bader Al-Saif ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Socioeconomic Groups ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Cross Transmission ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract Background Aggressive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The extent to which these interventions are successful in stopping the spread have not been characterized in countries with distinct socioeconomic groups. We compared the effects of a partial lockdown on disease transmission among Kuwaitis (P1) and non-Kuwaitis (P2) living in Kuwait. Methods We fit a modified metapopulation SEIR transmission model to reported cases stratified by two groups to estimate the impact of a partial lockdown on the effective reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e ). We estimated the basic reproduction number ($$ {\mathcal{R}}_0 $$ R 0 ) for the transmission in each group and simulated the potential trajectories of an outbreak from the first recorded case of community transmission until 12 days after the partial lockdown. We estimated $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e values of both groups before and after the partial curfew, simulated the effect of these values on the epidemic curves and explored a range of cross-transmission scenarios. Results We estimate $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e at 1·08 (95% CI: 1·00–1·26) for P1 and 2·36 (2·03–2·71) for P2. On March 22nd, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 and P2 are estimated at 1·19 (1·04–1·34) and 1·75 (1·26–2·11) respectively. After the partial curfew had taken effect, $$ {\mathcal{R}}_e $$ R e for P1 dropped modestly to 1·05 (0·82–1·26) but almost doubled for P2 to 2·89 (2·30–3·70). Our simulated epidemic trajectories show that the partial curfew measure greatly reduced and delayed the height of the peak in P1, yet significantly elevated and hastened the peak in P2. Modest cross-transmission between P1 and P2 greatly elevated the height of the peak in P1 and brought it forward in time closer to the peak of P2. Conclusion Our results indicate and quantify how the same lockdown intervention can accentuate disease transmission in some subpopulations while potentially controlling it in others. Any such control may further become compromised in the presence of cross-transmission between subpopulations. Future interventions and policies need to be sensitive to socioeconomic and health disparities.

scholarly journals Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahamoddin Khailaie ◽  
Tanmay Mitra ◽  
Arnab Bandyopadhyay ◽  
Marta Schips ◽  
Pietro Mascheroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Federal States

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. Methods We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. Results The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2–3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. Conclusions The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

scholarly journals Determinants of Short-term Movement in a Developing Region and Implications for Disease Transmission

Epidemiology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia N. M. Kraay ◽  
James Trostle ◽  
Andrew F. Brouwer ◽  
William Cevallos ◽  
Joseph N. S. Eisenberg
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Developing Region

scholarly journals Estimasi Reproduction Number Model Matematika Penyebaran Malaria di Sumba Tengah, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Ervin Mawo Banni ◽  
Maria A Kleden ◽  
Maria Lobo ◽  
Meksianis Zadrak Ndii
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Health Center ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Awareness Program ◽  
Awareness Programs ◽  
Malaria Eradication

Malaria is transmitted via a bite of mosquitoes and it is dangerous if it is not properly treated. Mathematical modeling can be formulated to understand the disease transmission dynamics. In this paper, a mathematical model with an awareness program has been formulated and the reproduction number has been estimated against the data from Weeluri Health Center, Mamboro District, Central Sumba. The calculation showed that the reproduction number is R0 = 1.2562. Results showed that if the efficacy of the awareness program is lower than 20%, the reproduction number is still above unity. If the efficacy of the awareness program is higher than 20%, the reproduction number is lower than unity. This implies that the efficacy of awareness programs is the key to the success of Malaria eradication.

scholarly journals A simple criterion to design optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (178) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Tulio Angulo ◽  
Fernando Castaños ◽  
Rodrigo Moreno-Morton ◽  
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernández ◽  
Jaime A. Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Simple Criterion ◽  
Societal Costs ◽  
Public Events ◽  
Maximum Decrease ◽  
Minimal Reduction ◽  
Theoretical Results ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

For mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, much emphasis is made on implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to keep the reproduction number below one. However, using that objective ignores that some of these interventions, like bans of public events or lockdowns, must be transitory and as short as possible because of their significant economic and societal costs. Here, we derive a simple and mathematically rigorous criterion for designing optimal transitory non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. We find that reducing the reproduction number below one is sufficient but not necessary. Instead, our criterion prescribes the required reduction in the reproduction number according to the desired maximum of disease prevalence and the maximum decrease of disease transmission that the interventions can achieve. We study the implications of our theoretical results for designing non-pharmaceutical interventions in 16 cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we estimate the minimal reduction of each region’s contact rate necessary to control the epidemic optimally. Our results contribute to establishing a rigorous methodology to design optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention policies for mitigating epidemic outbreaks.

Wildfire and Postfire Restoration Action Effects on Microclimate and Seedling Pine Tree Survivorship

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald J. Brown ◽  
Ivana Mali ◽  
Michael R.J. Forstner
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Loblolly Pine ◽  
Absolute Humidity ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
High Severity ◽  
Postfire Management

Abstract Through modification of structural characteristics, ecological processes such as fire can affect microhabitat parameters, which in turn can influence community composition dynamics. The prevalence of high-severity forest fires is increasing in the southern and western United States, creating the necessity to better understand effects of high-severity fire, and subsequent postfire management actions, on forest ecosystems. In this study we used a recent high-severity wildfire in the Lost Pines ecoregion of Texas to assess effects of the wildfire and postfire clearcutting on six microclimate parameters: air temperature, absolute humidity, mean wind speed, maximum wind speed, soil temperature, and soil moisture. We also assessed differences between burned areas and burned and subsequently clearcut areas for short-term survivorship of loblolly pine Pinus taeda seedling trees. We found that during the summer months approximately 2 y after the wildfire, mean and maximum wind speed differed between unburned and burned areas, as well as burned and burned and subsequently clearcut areas. Our results indicated air temperature, absolute humidity, soil temperature, and soil moisture did not differ between unburned and burned areas, or burned and burned and subsequently clearcut areas, during the study period. We found that short-term survivorship of loblolly pine seedling trees was influenced primarily by soil type, but was also lower in clearcut habitat compared with habitat containing dead standing trees. Ultimately, however, the outcome of the reforestation initiative will likely depend primarily on whether or not the trees can survive drought conditions in the future, and this study indicates there is flexibility in postfire management options prior to reseeding. Further, concerns about negative wildfire effects on microclimate parameters important to the endangered Houston toad Bufo (Anaxyrus) houstonensis were not supported in this study.

scholarly journals Human Gait Recognition Based on Frame-by-Frame Gait Energy Images and Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950027 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuhui Wang ◽  
Wei Qi Yan
Keyword(s):  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Gait Recognition ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Recognition Rate ◽  
Human Gait ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Cross Covariance ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Human gait recognition is one of the most promising biometric technologies, especially for unobtrusive video surveillance and human identification from a distance. Aiming at improving recognition rate, in this paper we study gait recognition using deep learning and propose a novel method based on convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (Conv-LSTM). First, we present a variation of Gait Energy Images, i.e. frame-by-frame GEI (ff-GEI), to expand the volume of available Gait Energy Images (GEI) data and relax the constraints of gait cycle segmentation required by existing gait recognition methods. Second, we demonstrate the effectiveness of ff-GEI by analyzing the cross-covariance of one person’s gait data. Then, making use of the temporality of our human gait, we design a novel gait recognition model using Conv-LSTM. Finally, the proposed method is evaluated extensively based on the CASIA Dataset B for cross-view gait recognition, furthermore the OU-ISIR Large Population Dataset is employed to verify its generalization ability. Our experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms based on these two datasets. The results indicate that the proposed ff-GEI model using Conv-LSTM, coupled with the new gait representation, can effectively solve the problems related to cross-view gait recognition.

scholarly journals On an SEIR Epidemic Model with Vaccination of Newborns and Periodic Impulsive Vaccination with Eventual On-Line Adapted Vaccination Strategies to the Varying Levels of the Susceptible Subpopulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (22) ◽  
pp. 8296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Malen Etxeberria-Etxaniz ◽  
Santiago Alonso-Quesada ◽  
Manuel De la Sen
Keyword(s):  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Epidemic Model ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
Impulsive Vaccination ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

This paper investigates a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic model with demography under two vaccination effort strategies. Firstly, the model is investigated under vaccination of newborns, which is fact in a direct action on the recruitment level of the model. Secondly, it is investigated under a periodic impulsive vaccination on the susceptible in the sense that the vaccination impulses are concentrated in practice in very short time intervals around a set of impulsive time instants subject to constant inter-vaccination periods. Both strategies can be adapted, if desired, to the time-varying levels of susceptible in the sense that the control efforts be increased as those susceptible levels increase. The model is discussed in terms of suitable properties like the positivity of the solutions, the existence and allocation of equilibrium points, and stability concerns related to the values of the basic reproduction number. It is proven that the basic reproduction number lies below unity, so that the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable for larger values of the disease transmission rates under vaccination controls compared to the case of absence of vaccination. It is also proven that the endemic equilibrium point is not reachable if the disease-free one is stable and that the disease-free equilibrium point is unstable if the reproduction number exceeds unity while the endemic equilibrium point is stable. Several numerical results are investigated for both vaccination rules with the option of adapting through ime the corresponding efforts to the levels of susceptibility. Such simulation examples are performed under parameterizations related to the current SARS-COVID 19 pandemic.

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