scholarly journals Inference on the dynamics of the COVID pandemic from observational data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satarupa Bhattacharjee ◽  
Shuting Liao ◽  
Debashis Paul ◽  
Sanjay Chaudhuri
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Compartment Model ◽  
Confidence Bands ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
System Of Difference Equations ◽  
Bootstrap Procedure ◽  
Estimation Strategy ◽  
The Social

AbstractWe describe a time dependent stochastic dynamic model in discrete time for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in various states of USA. The proposed multi-compartment model is expressed through a system of difference equations that describe their temporal dynamics. Various compartments in our model is connected to the social distancing measures and diagnostic testing rates. A nonparametric estimation strategy is employed for obtaining estimates of interpretable temporally static and dynamic epidemiological rate parameters. The confidence bands of the parameters are obtained using a residual bootstrap procedure. A key feature of the methodology is its ability to estimate latent compartments such as the trajectory of the number of asymptomatic but infected individuals which are the key vectors of COVID-19 spread. The nature of the disease dynamics is further quantified by the proposed epidemiological markers, which use estimates of such key latent compartments.

scholarly journals The economics of free

2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 563-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Evans
Keyword(s):  
Game Design ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Game Studies ◽  
Cultural Economic ◽  
Gaming Industry ◽  
Political Implications ◽  
The Simpsons ◽  
The Social ◽  
Casual Games ◽  
Branding Strategies

The gaming industry has seen dramatic change and expansion with the emergence of ‘casual’ games that promote shorter periods of gameplay. Free to download, but structured around micropayments, these games raise the complex relationship between game design and commercial strategies. Although offering a free gameplay experience in line with open access philosophies, these games also create systems that offer control over the temporal dynamics of that experience to monetize player attention and inattention. This article will examine three ‘freemium’ games, Snoopy Street Fair, The Simpsons’ Tapped Out and Dragonvale, to explore how they combine established branding strategies with gameplay methods that monetize player impatience. In examining these games, this article will ultimately indicate the need for game studies to interrogate the intersection between commercial motivations and game design and a broader need for media and cultural studies to consider the social, cultural, economic and political implications of impatience.

scholarly journals Networks and epidemic models

2005 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 295-307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
Ken T.D Eames
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Approximation Techniques ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
The Social ◽  
Finite Set ◽  
Random Mixing ◽  
The Individual

Networks and the epidemiology of directly transmitted infectious diseases are fundamentally linked. The foundations of epidemiology and early epidemiological models were based on population wide random-mixing, but in practice each individual has a finite set of contacts to whom they can pass infection; the ensemble of all such contacts forms a ‘mixing network’. Knowledge of the structure of the network allows models to compute the epidemic dynamics at the population scale from the individual-level behaviour of infections. Therefore, characteristics of mixing networks—and how these deviate from the random-mixing norm—have become important applied concerns that may enhance the understanding and prediction of epidemic patterns and intervention measures. Here, we review the basis of epidemiological theory (based on random-mixing models) and network theory (based on work from the social sciences and graph theory). We then describe a variety of methods that allow the mixing network, or an approximation to the network, to be ascertained. It is often the case that time and resources limit our ability to accurately find all connections within a network, and hence a generic understanding of the relationship between network structure and disease dynamics is needed. Therefore, we review some of the variety of idealized network types and approximation techniques that have been utilized to elucidate this link. Finally, we look to the future to suggest how the two fields of network theory and epidemiological modelling can deliver an improved understanding of disease dynamics and better public health through effective disease control.

scholarly journals Episodic Dynamics of Tar Spot of Annual Lespedeza Within and Among Years

Plant Disease ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 81 (5) ◽  
pp. 535-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Mihail ◽  
R. L. McGraw ◽  
P. E. Verslues ◽  
S. J. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Disease Severity ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Spatial Dynamics ◽  
Silty Clay ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Silty Clay Loam ◽  
Row Crops ◽  
Tar Spot ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

The temporal and spatial dynamics of six tar spot epidemics were examined at two sites in mid-Missouri during 1990 to 1992. The sites, 48 km apart, differed in topography (flat versus slope), soil texture (silt loam versus silty-clay loam), and cropping history (orchard versus row crops). Temporal dynamics of disease incidence differed more among years than between sites. During 1990, temporal dynamics of the two epidemics followed a classic monotonic increase, whereas disease increase was episodic for the four epidemics observed during 1991 and 1992. Disease increase was associated with shading of the plant canopy or with the presence of dodder. Disease increase was related inversely to intercepted photosynthetically active radiation. Taken together, these observations suggest that factors that increase shading in the lespedeza canopy also increase tar spot incidence. For only two of the six epidemics was there a significant relationship between disease incidence (proportion of leaflets diseased) and disease severity (proportion of leaflet area diseased), with disease severity rarely exceeding 10%. These observations suggest that relatively low tar spot incidence may result in significant leaf losses, which would reduce lespedeza hay quality and yield. Further, this study demonstrates the importance of experimental repetition in both space and time to fully appreciate the range of disease dynamics for a single pathosystem.

scholarly journals Transformations of Temporal Dimensions of Social Reality and Their Consequences for Human Resources Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-21
Author(s):  
Piotr Górski ◽  
Ewa Ryłko
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Human Resources Management ◽  
Social Process ◽  
Modern Society ◽  
Family Roles ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Social Time ◽  
The Social ◽  
Temporal Dimensions ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers in a historical perspective the consequences of the social time constructing for work of an organization and for individuals. It shows how this social process of time constructing is related to shaping modern society and to the changes described as post-modernity. In the context of the organization, the impact of the temporal dynamics of managers and employees on the change in the organization and in their personal life is considered. We describe the consequences of different perceptions of time for attitudes, behaviors and aspirations of contemporary employees are discussed in the context of reconciling professional and family roles.

scholarly journals Social Networks of Lexical Innovation. Investigating the Social Dynamics of Diffusion of Neologisms on Twitter

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quirin Würschinger
Keyword(s):  
Social Network ◽  
Social Network Analysis ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
New Words ◽  
Network Analyses ◽  
The Social ◽  
Lexical Innovation ◽  
Social Diffusion

Societies continually evolve and speakers use new words to talk about innovative products and practices. While most lexical innovations soon fall into disuse, others spread successfully and become part of the lexicon. In this paper, I conduct a longitudinal study of the spread of 99 English neologisms on Twitter to study their degrees and pathways of diffusion. Previous work on lexical innovation has almost exclusively relied on usage frequency for investigating the spread of new words. To get a more differentiated picture of diffusion, I use frequency-based measures to study temporal aspects of diffusion and I use network analyses for a more detailed and accurate investigation of the sociolinguistic dynamics of diffusion. The results show that frequency measures manage to capture diffusion with varying success. Frequency counts can serve as an approximate indicator for overall degrees of diffusion, yet they miss important information about the temporal usage profiles of lexical innovations. The results indicate that neologisms with similar total frequency can exhibit significantly different degrees of diffusion. Analysing differences in their temporal dynamics of use with regard to their age, trends in usage intensity, and volatility contributes to a more accurate account of their diffusion. The results obtained from the social network analysis reveal substantial differences in the social pathways of diffusion. Social diffusion significantly correlates with the frequency and temporal usage profiles of neologisms. However, the network visualisations and metrics identify neologisms whose degrees of social diffusion are more limited than suggested by their overall frequency of use. These include, among others, highly volatile neologisms (e.g., poppygate) and political terms (e.g., alt-left), whose use almost exclusively goes back to single communities of closely-connected, like-minded individuals. I argue that the inclusion of temporal and social information is of particular importance for the study of lexical innovation since neologisms exhibit high degrees of temporal volatility and social indexicality. More generally, the present approach demonstrates the potential of social network analysis for sociolinguistic research on linguistic innovation, variation, and change.

scholarly journals The Interaction of Wildfire Risk Mitigation Policies in the Presence of Spatial Externalities and Heterogeneous Landowners

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibtisam Al Abri ◽  
Kelly Grogan
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
The United States ◽  
Free Riding ◽  
Stochastic Dynamic ◽  
Fuel Treatment ◽  
The Social

The dramatic increase in the number of uncontrollable wildfires in the United States has become an important policy issue as they threaten valuable forests and human property. The derived stochastic dynamic model of this study is capable of determining optimal fuel treatment timing and level simultaneously and as a function of fire risk and fuel biomass dynamics. This study develops a stochastic dynamic model to evaluate the interaction of fuel treatment decisions for two adjacent landowners under various scenarios of misinformation about fire occurrence and spread. Findings indicate that a landowner tends to free ride on fuel treatment undertaken by his adjacent landowner. However, the study finds that the free riding potential of a landowner could be alleviated to some extent by having a neighboring landowner who is aware of fire spillover effects. In addition, the study reveals that the social cost resultant from free riding behavior is lower that the social cost associated with complete absence of fire externality awareness for both landowners. These findings imply that governments could introduce more effective educational programs to ensure that all landowners are fully aware of cross-parcel benefits of fuel treatment in order to align socially and privately optimal decisions, thus minimizing externality costs.

scholarly journals Analysis of the modalities of return of populations to the contaminated territories following the accident at the Fukushima power plant

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-93
Author(s):  
Pascal Croüail ◽  
Thierry Schneider ◽  
Jean-Christophe Gariel ◽  
Masaharu Tsubokura ◽  
Wataru Naito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Emergency Evacuation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Radiological Protection ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Radiological Criteria ◽  
Nuclear Disaster ◽  
The Social ◽  
High Uncertainty

Based on gathered viewpoints from Japanese stakeholders who face the consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster at the national and local levels, the modalities and conditions governing the decision of evacuees to return home after the lifting of evacuation orders, have been examined. This analysis revealed the complexity of the situation in a context of high uncertainty, and also emphasized the need for decision-makers and decision-helpers (e.g. radiological protection and medical experts) to take account and respect the different choices made or envisaged by the impacted communities for whom radiological issues are only one facet of the problem. The analysis firstly deals with the dynamics of the emergency evacuation which has strongly influenced the issue of managing the return of populations. Social and especially family dimensions are also emphasized, particularly related to the organization of temporary housing. Then, the organization and the evolution of the characterization and zoning of the affected areas are discussed as well as the radiological criteria that have been used and how they have been perceived by people. Notably, the effects on health and welfare are emphasized, by analysing in particular the temporal dynamics since the accident. The difficulties encountered by evacuees and returnees and the specific situations of the various communities are also highlighted. The question of the development of a radiological protection culture through self-monitoring and protective actions and its long-term role is also discussed. Another key element concerns the effects of the compensation system: without going into details on the mechanisms put in place, the social and ethical questions raised by this system are presented. Finally, the question of “the future of the affected territories” is evoked by stressing the concerns of several municipalities for restoring their attractiveness for possible newcomers.

scholarly journals Introduction: Development, Young People, and the Social Production of Aspirations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy Huijsmans ◽  
Nicola Ansell ◽  
Peggy Froerer
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Life Course ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Course Development ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Social Production ◽  
The Social ◽  
Life Course Development ◽  
The Life Course

AbstractIn this editorial introduction to the Special Issue Youth, Aspirations and the Life Course: Development and the social production of aspirations in young people’s lives, we put the work presented in this collection in conversation with the wider literature on development, youth and aspirations. Aspiration we define as an orientation towards a desired future. We elaborate on our conceptualisation of aspirations as socially produced and reflect on the methodological challenges in researching young people’s aspirations in development. While mindful of the various critiques of aspiration research we argue that aspirations constitute fertile terrain for theorising the temporal dynamics of being young and growing up in contexts of development.

The Value of Diagnostic Testing in Personalized Medicine

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. S87-S99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana P. Goldman ◽  
Charu Gupta ◽  
Eshan Vasudeva ◽  
Kostas Trakas ◽  
Ralph Riley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Personalized Medicine ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Diagnostic Testing ◽  
Information Economics ◽  
Social Value ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Genetic Characteristics ◽  
Targeted Treatments ◽  
The Social

Abstract Personalized medicine – the targeting of therapies to individuals on the basis of their biological, clinical, or genetic characteristics – is thought to have the potential to transform health care. While much emphasis has been placed on the value of personalized therapies, less attention has been paid to the value generated by the diagnostic tests that direct patients to those targeted treatments. This paper presents a framework derived from information economics for assessing the value of diagnostics. We demonstrate, via a case study, that the social value of such diagnostics can be very large, both by avoiding unnecessary treatment and by identifying patients who otherwise would not get treated. Despite the potential social benefits, diagnostic development has been discouraged by cost-based, rather than value-based, reimbursement.

scholarly journals The Socio-Materiality of Dirty Work: A Critical Realist Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 095001702110113
Author(s):  
Anna Galazka ◽  
Joe O’Mahoney
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Physical Domain ◽  
Dirty Work ◽  
Critical Realist ◽  
The Social ◽  
Material Environment ◽  
Ethnographic Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Realist Ontology ◽  
Realist Perspective

New materialist applications in ‘dirty work’ studies have rightly emphasised the importance of materiality alongside symbolism. However, these approaches have neglected important themes irreducible to the material world, such as temporality, reflexivity and social structure. This article develops an alternative critical realist perspective on socio-materiality in dirty work which emphasises these themes. It draws on 2016–2017 ethnographic data on the work of clinical photographers of wounds in a UK specialist outpatient wound healing clinic. First, it shows how photographers’ reflexivity mediates the relationship between their embodied materiality and their agency in the physical domain. Second, it highlights the temporal dynamics between reflexive agents, their material environment, and the context of their operation. Finally, it emphasises the non-conflationary relationship between the social structures of the medical hierarchy and photographers’ agency in dirty work. Together, these contributions highlight the utility of an emergent, realist ontology in understanding the dynamics of dirty work.

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