scholarly journals Estimating the effectiveness of the Pfizer COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccine after a single dose. A reanalysis of a study of ‘real-world’ vaccination outcomes from Israel

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Julii Brainard
Keyword(s):  
Single Dose ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Early Results ◽  
Initial Injection ◽  
Severe Infections ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level ◽  
Roll Out

A distinctive feature of the roll out of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 virus in the UK was the decision to delay the timing of the second injection till 12 weeks after the first. The logic behind this is to protect more people sooner and so reduce the total number of severe infections, hospitalisations, and deaths. This decision caused criticism from some quarters due in part to a belief that a single injection may not give adequate immunity. A recent paper based on Israel’s experience of vaccination suggested that a single dose may not provide adequate protection. Here we extract the primary data from the Israeli paper and then estimate the incidence per day for each day after the first injection and also estimate vaccine effectiveness for each day from day 13 to day 24. We used a pooled estimate of the daily incidence rate during days 1 to 12 as the counterfactual estimate of incidence without disease and estimated confidence intervals using Monte Carlo modelling. After initial injection case numbers increased to day 8 before declining to low levels by day 21. Estimated vaccine effectiveness was pretty much 0 at day 14 but then rose to about 90% at day 21 before levelling off. The cause of the initial surge in infection risk is unknown but may be related to people being less cautious about maintaining protective behaviours as soon as they have the injection. What our analysis shows is that a single dose of vaccine is highly protective, although it can take up to 21 days to achieve this. The early results coming from Israel support the UK policy of extending the gap between doses by showing that a single dose can give a high level of protection.

scholarly journals Estimating the effectiveness of first dose of COVID-19 vaccine against mortality in England: a quasi-experimental study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Bermingham ◽  
Jasper Morgan ◽  
Daniel Ayoubkhani ◽  
Myer Glickman ◽  
Nazrul Islam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccine Dose ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Confounding Factors ◽  
Unmeasured Confounding ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Roll Out

Background: Estimating real-world vaccine effectiveness is vital to assess the impact of the vaccination programme on the pandemic and inform the ongoing policy response. However, estimating vaccine effectiveness using observational data is inherently challenging because of the non-randomised design and the potential for unmeasured confounding. Methods: We used a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to estimate vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 mortality in England, exploiting the discontinuity in vaccination rates resulting from the UK's age-based vaccination priority groups. We used the fact that people aged 80 or over were prioritised for the vaccine roll-out in the UK to compare the risk of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 death in people aged 75-79 and 80-84. Findings: The prioritisation of vaccination of people aged 80 or above led to a large discrepancy in vaccination rates in people 80-84 compared to those 75-79 at the beginning of the vaccination campaign. We found a corresponding difference in COVID-19 mortality, but not in non-COVID-19 mortality, suggesting that our approach appropriately addresses the issue of unmeasured confounding factors. Our results suggest that the first vaccine dose reduced the risk of COVID-19 death by 70.5% (95% CI 18.2-117.7) in those aged 80. Interpretations: Our results support existing evidence that a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine has a strong protective effect against COVID-19 mortality in older adults. The RDD estimate of vaccine effectiveness is comparable to previously published studies using different methods, suggesting that unmeasured confounding factors are unlikely to substantially bias these studies.

scholarly journals Early effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination with BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and ChAdOx1 adenovirus vector vaccine on symptomatic disease, hospitalisations and mortality in older adults in England

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Lopez Bernal ◽  
Nick Andrews ◽  
Charlotte Gower ◽  
Julia Stowe ◽  
Chris Robertson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Single Dose ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Symptomatic Disease ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Negative Case ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Underlying Risk

AbstractObjectivesTo estimate the real-world effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech BNT162b2 vaccine and Astrazeneca ChAdOx1 vaccine against Confirmed COVID-19, hospitalisations and deaths. To estimate effectiveness on the UK variant of concern.DesignTest negative case control designSettingCommunity COVID-19 PCR testing in EnglandParticipantsAll adults in England aged 70 years and older (over 7.5 million). All COVID-19 testing in the community among eligible individuals who reported symptoms between 8thDecember 2020 and 19thFebruary 2021 was included in the analysis.InterventionsOne and two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine. One dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine.Main outcome measuresSymptomatic PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalisations and deaths with COVID-19.ResultsIndividuals aged >=80 years vaccinated with BNT162b2 prior to 4thJanuary, had a higher odds of testing positive in the first 9 days after vaccination (odds ratio up to 1.48, 95%CI 1.23-1.77), indicating that those initially targeted had a higher underlying risk of infection. Vaccine effectiveness was therefore estimated relative to the baseline post-vaccination period. Vaccine effects were noted from 10-13 days after vaccination, reaching an effectiveness of 70% (95% CI 59-78%) from 28-34 days, then plateauing. From 14 days after the second dose a vaccine effectiveness of 89% (95%CI: 85-93%) was seen.Individuals aged >=70 years vaccinated from 4thJanuary had a similar underlying risk of COVID-19 to unvaccinated individuals. With BNT162b2, vaccine effectiveness reached 61% (95%CI 51-69%) from 28-34 days after vaccination then plateaued. With the ChAdOx1 vaccine, vaccine effects were seen from 14-20 days after vaccination reaching an effectiveness of 60% (95%CI 41-73%) from 28-34 days and further increasing to 73% (95%CI 27-90%) from day 35 onwards.On top of the protection against symptomatic disease, cases who had been vaccinated with one dose of BNT162b2 had an additional 43% (95%CI 33-52%) lower risk of emergency hospitalisation and an additional 51% (95%CI 37-62%) lower risk of death. Cases who had been vaccinated with one dose of ChAdOx1 had an additional 37% (95% CI 3-59%) lower risk of emergency hospitalisation. There was insufficient follow-up to assess the effect of ChAdOx1 on mortality due to the later rollout of this vaccine. Combined with the effect against symptomatic disease, this indicates that a single dose of either vaccine is approximately 80% effective at preventing hospitalisation and a single dose of BNT162b2 is 85% effective at preventing death with COVID-19.ConclusionVaccination with either a single dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccination was associated with a significant reduction in symptomatic SARS-CoV2 positive cases in older adults with even greater protection against severe disease. Both vaccines show similar effects. Protection was maintained for the duration of follow-up (>6 weeks). A second dose of BNT162b2 provides further protection against symptomatic disease but second doses of ChAdOx1 have not yet been rolled out in England. There is a clear effect of the vaccines against the UK variant of concern.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines for reducing susceptibility to infection with the Delta variant(B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karan Pattni ◽  
Dan Hungerford ◽  
Sarah Adams ◽  
Iain Buchan ◽  
Christopher P Cheyne ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Single Dose ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Double Dose ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Susceptibility To Infection ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Health Action ◽  
Alpha Variant ◽  
The Uk

Background From January to May 2021 the alpha variant (B.1.1.7) of SARS-CoV-2 was the most commonly detected variant in the UK, but since then the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), first detected in India, has become the predominant variant. The UK COVID-19 vaccination programme started on 8thDecember 2020. Most vaccine effectiveness studies to date have focused on the alpha variant. We therefore aimed to estimate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines in preventing infection with respect to the Delta variant in a UK setting. Methods We used anonymised public health record data linked to infection data (PCR) using the Combined Intelligence for Population Health Action resource. We then constructed an SIR epidemic model to explain SARS-CoV-2 infection data across the Cheshire and Merseyside region of the UK. Results We determined that the effectiveness of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in reducing susceptibility to infection is 39% (95% credible interval [34,43]) and 64% (95% credible interval [61,67]) for a single dose and a double dose respectively. For the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, the effectiveness is 20% (95% credible interval [10,28]) and 84% (95% credible interval [82,86]) for a single-dose and a double dose respectively. Conclusion Vaccine effectiveness for reducing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection shows noticeable improvement after receiving two doses of either vaccine. Findings also suggest that a full course of the Pfizer-BioNTech provides the optimal protection against infection with the Delta variant. This would advocate for completing the full course programme to maximise individual protection and reduce transmission.

scholarly journals Patient perspectives about participation in a chronic rhinosinusitis trial during the COVID pandemic: a qualitative study.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Vennik ◽  
Clare McDermott ◽  
Samantha Williams ◽  
Carl Philpott ◽  
Mike Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Safety Information ◽  
Clinical Situation ◽  
Trial Participation ◽  
Waiting Room ◽  
Telephone Interviews ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level ◽  
Patient Confidence ◽  
Trial Participants ◽  
Roll Out

• Telephone interviews were conducted with 19 MACRO trial participants from 5 ENT sites across the UK. • Trial participants experienced mixed levels of communication during the COVID period and some felt uninformed about the trial status and their clinical situation. • Participants were most concerned about getting COVID through interactions with other patients in hospital settings. Conversely, there was a high level of trust in healthcare professionals. • Pre-visit COVID-safety information, minimising contact with other patients, and strict waiting room management can facilitate the restart of the MACRO trial from the patient perspective. • Patient confidence in trial participation is likely to continue improving with COVID vaccination roll out.

ATTITUDE TO OPEN ACCESS IN RUSSIAN SCHOLARLY COMMUNITY: 2018. SURVEY RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. K. Razumova ◽  
N. N. Litvinova ◽  
M. E. Shvartsman ◽  
A. Yu. Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Open Access ◽  
Open Access Publishing ◽  
Scholarly Community ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Policies And Programs ◽  
The Uk ◽  
High Level ◽  
Access Policies

Introduction. The paper presents survey results on the awareness towards and practice of Open Access scholarly publishing among Russian academics.Materials and Methods. We employed methods of statistical analysis of survey results. Materials comprise results of data processing of Russian survey conducted in 2018 and published results of the latest international surveys. The survey comprised 1383 respondents from 182 organizations. We performed comparative studies of the responses from academics and research institutions as well as different research areas. The study compares results obtained in Russia with the recently published results of surveys conducted in the United Kingdom and Europe.Results. Our findings show that 95% of Russian respondents support open access, 94% agree to post their publications in open repositories and 75% have experience in open access publishing. We did not find any difference in the awareness and attitude towards open access among seven reference groups. Our analysis revealed the difference in the structure of open access publications of the authors from universities and research institutes. Discussion andConclusions. Results reveal a high level of awareness and support to open access and succeful practice in the open access publications in the Russian scholarly community. The results for Russia demonstrate close similarity with the results of the UK academics. The governmental open access policies and programs would foster the practical realization of the open access in Russia.

High world sugar prices: is Asia’s production cycle to blame?

2010 ◽  
pp. 169-173
Author(s):  
Martin Todd
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Production Cycle ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
High Level ◽  
High World

The current high world sugar prices reflect a major imbalance between global supply and demand, which has reduced stocks to very low levels. Although it remains to be seen whether prices will rise much above current values, it is clear that the supply chain will remain stretched throughout 2010 and this will help to maintain prices at a high level.

The RUMA Alliance targets: an overview

Livestock ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 176-179
Author(s):  
Chris Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Codes Of Practice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Ongoing Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Roll Out

The Responsible Use of Medicines in Agriculture Alliance (RUMA) was established to promote the highest standards of food safety, animal health and animal welfare in the British livestock industry. It has a current focus to deliver on the Government objective of identifying sector-specific targets for the reduction, refinement or replacement of antibiotics in animal agriculture. The creation and roll out of sector specific targets in 2017 through the RUMA Targets Task Force, has helped focus activity across the UK livestock sectors to achieve a 50% reduction in antibiotic use since 2014. This has been realised principally through voluntary multi-sector collaboration, cross sector initiatives, codes of practice, industry body support and farm assurance schemes. This article provides an overview of RUMA's work to date providing insight into the methods used to create the targets, why they are so important, the impact they are having and how ongoing support and robust data are vital components in achieving the latest set of targets.

scholarly journals Testing Todd: family types and development

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Jerg Gutmann ◽  
Stefan Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
State Fragility ◽  
Family Types ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
The One ◽  
High Level

Abstract Many years ago, Emmanuel Todd came up with a classification of family types and argued that the historically prevalent family types in a society have important consequences for its economic, political, and social development. Here, we evaluate Todd's most important predictions empirically. Relying on a parsimonious model with exogenous covariates, we find mixed results. On the one hand, authoritarian family types are, in stark contrast to Todd's predictions, associated with increased levels of the rule of law and innovation. On the other hand, and in line with Todd's expectations, communitarian family types are linked to racism, low levels of the rule of law, and late industrialization. Countries in which endogamy is frequently practiced also display an expectedly high level of state fragility and weak civil society organizations.

scholarly journals Post Occupancy Evaluation of School Refurbishment Projects: Multiple Case Study in the UK

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 169
Author(s):  
Hamad Ahmed ◽  
David J. Edwards ◽  
Joseph H. K. Lai ◽  
Chris Roberts ◽  
Caleb Debrah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intelligent Systems ◽  
Client Satisfaction ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Inductive Reasoning ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Philosophical Approach ◽  
Post Occupancy Evaluation ◽  
Multiple Case ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Building Project

Buildings inevitably deteriorate with time. Schools buildings are no exception and require refurbishment at times. Despite the UK Government announcing the £1 billion funding for rebuilding 50 schools over 10 years starting 2010–2021, it is common practice for builders and designers to, upon completion of a building project, move on to the next development without considering how the completed building performs. This research undertakes a post occupancy evaluation (POE) of three schools in the West Midlands, UK with specific focus on building services, viz., heating, lighting, and air conditioning and ventilation. The research adopted a mixed philosophical approach of interpretivism and post-positivism to conduct inductive reasoning. A questionnaire that collected both quantitative and qualitative primary data was distributed to the end-users of the schools. Data was analysed using the Cronbach’s alpha, one sample t-test and Kruskal–Wallis test to identify any differences between the questionnaire responses. Findings revealed that building users demanded greater control of the internal environment thus contradicting the current trend for automated ‘intelligent systems’ approaches. This research represents the first work to consider the contractor’s perspective towards developing a better understanding of client satisfaction with the school buildings. Moreover, the POE result represents a notable pragmatic advancement to knowledge that will influence the contractor’s knowledge and understanding of client satisfaction, and where to improve upon these.

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