scholarly journals Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James D Munday ◽  
Christopher I Jarvis ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Kerry LM Wong ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundSchools have been closed in England since the 4th of January 2021 as part of the national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK Government plans to reopen schools on the 8th of March. Although there is evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings are not clear.MethodsWe measured social contacts when schools were both open or closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number.ResultsOur results suggest that reopening all schools could increase R from an assumed baseline of 0.8 to between 1.0 and 1.5, or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone.ConclusionOur results suggest that reopening schools is likely to halt the fall in cases observed in recent months and risks returning to rising infections, but these estimates rely heavily on the current estimates or reproduction number and the current validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we use.

scholarly journals Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James D. Munday ◽  
Christopher I. Jarvis ◽  
Amy Gimma ◽  
Kerry L. M. Wong ◽  
Kevin van Zandvoort ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Face To Face ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Schools were closed in England on 4 January 2021 as part of increased national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK government reopened schools on 8 March. Although there was evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings and the resulting impact on the overall transmission rate in the population were not clear. Methods We measured social contacts of > 5000 participants weekly from March 2020, including periods when schools were both open and closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number. Results Our analysis indicates that reopening all schools under the same measures as previous periods that combined lockdown with face-to-face schooling would be likely to increase the reproduction number substantially. Assuming a baseline of 0.8, we estimated a likely increase to between 1.0 and 1.5 with the reopening of all schools or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone. Conclusion Our results suggest that reopening schools would likely halt the fall in cases observed between January and March 2021 and would risk a return to rising infections, but these estimates relied heavily on the latest estimates or reproduction number and the validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we used at the time of reopening.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of the tier system on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. e050346
Author(s):  
Daniel J Laydon ◽  
Swapnil Mishra ◽  
Wes R Hinsley ◽  
Pantelis Samartsidis ◽  
Seth Flaxman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Time Reproduction ◽  
Tier System ◽  
The Uk ◽  
National Trends ◽  
Tier 3 ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo measure the effects of the tier system on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK between the first and second national lockdowns, before the emergence of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern.DesignThis is a modelling study combining estimates of real-time reproduction number Rt (derived from UK case, death and serological survey data) with publicly available data on regional non-pharmaceutical interventions. We fit a Bayesian hierarchical model with latent factors using these quantities to account for broader national trends in addition to subnational effects from tiers.SettingThe UK at lower tier local authority (LTLA) level. 310 LTLAs were included in the analysis.Primary and secondary outcome measuresReduction in real-time reproduction number Rt.ResultsNationally, transmission increased between July and late September, regional differences notwithstanding. Immediately prior to the introduction of the tier system, Rt averaged 1.3 (0.9–1.6) across LTLAs, but declined to an average of 1.1 (0.86–1.42) 2 weeks later. Decline in transmission was not solely attributable to tiers. Tier 1 had negligible effects. Tiers 2 and 3, respectively, reduced transmission by 6% (5%–7%) and 23% (21%–25%). 288 LTLAs (93%) would have begun to suppress their epidemics if every LTLA had gone into tier 3 by the second national lockdown, whereas only 90 (29%) did so in reality.ConclusionsThe relatively small effect sizes found in this analysis demonstrate that interventions at least as stringent as tier 3 are required to suppress transmission, especially considering more transmissible variants, at least until effective vaccination is widespread or much greater population immunity has amassed.

scholarly journals The impact of cycle proficiency training on cycle-related behaviours and accidents in adolescence: findings from ALSPAC, a UK longitudinal cohort

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Teyhan ◽  
Rosie Cornish ◽  
Andy Boyd ◽  
Mary Sissons Joshi ◽  
John Macleod
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Self Report ◽  
School Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Parents And Children ◽  
Cycle Training ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Serious Injuries ◽  
Minor Cycle ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT ObjectivesIn the UK, some children undertake National Cycle Proficiency Scheme [NCPS]/Bikeability training in primary school. It aims to promote cycling and safe cycling behaviours but there has been little scientific evaluation of its effectiveness. We aimed to examine the impact of cycle training on cycle-related behaviours and accidents in adolescence using self-report and hospital episode statistics (HES) data. ApproachThe sample (n=5415) were participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children who reported whether or not they had received NCPS training. Self-reported outcomes at 14 and 16 years included: cycling to school, ownership of cycle helmet, use of cycle helmet and high-visibility clothing on last cycle, and involvement in a cycle accident. Hospital admittance due to a cycle accident from 11-16 years was also included for a subsample (n=2222) who have been linked to HES. The association between cycle training and each of the outcomes was analysed using multilevel logistic regression (individual level 1, school level 2 [pseudo-ID of school attended obtained from linkage to National Pupil Database]), adjusted for a range of potential confounders. ResultsApproximately 40% had received NCPS training. At 14 and 16 years, trained children were more likely to cycle to school (at 16 years: adjusted OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.20-2.02) and to own a helmet (16 years: 2.03, 1.72-2.41) than those who had not attended a course. They were also more likely to have worn a helmet on their last cycle at age 14 (1.26, 1.07-1.49), and to have worn high-visibility clothing at age 16 (1.70, 1.22-2.39). Training was not associated with self-reported involvement in a cycle accident, and only six participants with HES data had been admitted to hospital due to a cycle accident. Irrespective of training, results indicate very low use of high-visibility clothing (5%), very few girls cycling to school (<2%), and less than half of helmet owners wearing one on their last cycle. Ownership and use of helmets was particularly low in children from lower socio-economic position families. ConclusionCycle training for children can have benefits that persist into adolescence. However, the low use of cycle helmets and high-visibility clothing indicate the further potential for interventions to encourage safe cycling behaviours in young people. Our hospital admissions outcome only captures individuals who sustained serious injuries; more minor cycle injuries would have been treated in A&E but a lack of detail in admission codes precludes analysis of such data.

scholarly journals The effectiveness of social bubbles as part of a Covid-19 lockdown exit strategy, a modelling study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trystan Leng ◽  
Connor White ◽  
Joe Hilton ◽  
Adam Kucharski ◽  
Lorenzo Pellis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Exit Strategy ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Risk

AbstractBackgroundDuring the Covid-19 lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study.MethodsWe used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, that is stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate a number of strategies including variations of social bubbles, i.e. the forming of exclusive pairs of households, for particular subsets of households (households including children and single occupancy households), as well as for all households. We test the sensitivity of the results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters.ResultsClustering contacts outside the household into exclusive social bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting some of the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case scenario social bubbles reduced cases and fatalities by 17% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to 1.1 and therefore beyond the epidemic threshold of one. However, strategies that allow households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles only increased the reproduction number by less than 10%. The corresponding increase in morbidity and mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is largely focussed in older adults independently of whether these are included in the social bubbles.ConclusionsSocial bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household limiting the increase in epidemic risk, if managed appropriately.

scholarly journals The fomite contribution to the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK: an evolutionary population estimate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Avery Meiksin
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Population Estimate ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Uk

A SEIR model with an added fomite term is used to constrain the contribution of fomites to the spread of COVID-19 under the Spring 2020 lockdown in the UK. Assuming uniform priors on the reproduction number in lockdown and the fomite transmission rate, an upper limit is found on the fomite transmission rate of less than 1 contaminated object in 7 per day per infectious person (95% CL). Basing the prior on the reproduction rate during lockdown instead on the CoMix study results for the reduction in social contacts under lockdown, and assuming the reproduction number scales with the number of social contacts, provides a much more restrictive upper limit on the transmission rate by contaminated objects of fewer than 1 in 30 per day per infectious person (95% CL). Applied to postal deliveries and groceries, the upper limit on the fomite transmission rate corresponds to a probability below 1 in 70 (95% CL) that a contaminated object transmits the infection. Fewer than about half (95% CL) of the total number of deaths during the lockdown are found to arise from fomites, and most likely fewer than a quarter. These findings apply only to fomites with a transmission rate that is unaffected by a lockdown.

scholarly journals Close contact infection dynamics over time: insights from a second large-scale social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, in 2010-2011

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thang Van Hoang ◽  
Pietro Coletti ◽  
Yimer Wasihun Kiffe ◽  
Kim Van Kerckhove ◽  
Sarah Vercruysse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
Mixing Patterns ◽  
Contact Survey ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundIn 2010-2011, we conducted a social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, aimed at improving and extending the design of the first social contact survey conducted in Belgium in 2006. This second social contact survey aimed to enable, for the first time, the estimation of social mixing patterns for an age range of 0 to 99 years and the investigation of whether contact rates remain stable over this 5-year time period.MethodsDifferent data mining techniques are used to explore the data, and the age-specific number of social contacts and the age-specific contact rates are modelled using a GAMLSS model. We compare different matrices using assortativeness measures. The relative change in the basic reproduction number (R0) and the ratio of relative incidences with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (BCI) are employed to investigate and quantify the impact on epidemic spread due to differences in gender, day of the week, holiday vs. regular periods and changes in mixing patterns over the 5-year time gap between the 2006 and 2010-2011 surveys. Finally, we compare the fit of the contact matrices in 2006 and 2010-2011 to Varicella serological data.ResultsAll estimated contact patterns featured strong homophily in age and gender, especially for small children and adolescents. A 30% (95% BCI [17%; 37%] ) and 29% (95% BCI [14%; 40%] ) reduction in R0 was observed for weekend versus weekdays and for holiday versus regular periods, respectively. Significantly more interactions between people aged 60+ years and their grandchildren were observed on holiday and weekend days than on regular weekdays. Comparing contact patterns using different methods did not show any substantial differences over the 5-year time period under study.ConclusionsThe second social contact survey in Flanders, Belgium, endorses the findings of its 2006 predecessor and adds important information on the social mixing patterns of people older than 60 years of age. Based on this analysis, the mixing patterns of people older than 60 years exhibit considerable heterogeneity, and overall, the comparison of the two surveys shows that social contact rates can be assumed stable in Flanders over a time span of 5 years.

scholarly journals Living life in limbo: experiences of healthcare professionals during the HCPC fitness to practice investigation process in the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill Maben ◽  
Linda Hoinville ◽  
Dawn Querstret ◽  
Cath Taylor ◽  
Magdalena Zasada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Psychological Impact ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Framework Analysis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Healthcare Settings ◽  
Lack Of Information ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Investigation Process

Abstract Background It is the responsibility of healthcare regulators to ensure healthcare professionals remain fit for practice in healthcare settings. If there are concerns about an individual healthcare professional they may undergo a fitness to practice investigation. This process is known to be hugely stressful for doctors and social workers, but little is known about the impact of this experience on other professions. This study explores the experiences of registrants going through the process of being reported to the UK’s Health and Care Professions Council (HCPC) and attending fitness to practice (FTP) hearings. We discuss the implications of this process on registrants’ wellbeing and, from our findings, present recommendations based on registrants experiences. In doing so we articulate the structural processes of the HCPC FTP process and the impact this has on individuals. Methods This study uses semi-structured interviews and framework analysis to explore the experiences of 15 registrants who had completed the FTP process. Participants were sampled for maximum variation and were selected to reflect the range of possible processes and outcomes through the FTP process. Results The psychological impact of undergoing a FTP process was significant for the majority of participants. Their stories described influences on their wellbeing at both a macro (institutional/organisational) and micro (individual) level. A lack of information, long length of time for the process and poor support avenues were macro factors impacting on the ability of registrants to cope with their experiences (theme 1). These macro factors led to feelings of powerlessness, vulnerability and threat of ruin for many registrants (theme 2). Suggested improvements (theme 3) included better psychological support (e.g. signposting or provision); proportional processes to the incident (e.g. mediation instead of hearings); and taking context into account. Conclusions Findings suggest that improvements to both the structure and conduct of the FTP process are warranted. Implementation of better signposting for support both during and after a FTP process may improve psychological wellbeing. There may also be value in considering alternative ways of organising the FTP process to enable greater consideration of and flexibility for registrants’ context and how they are investigated.

scholarly journals Using Keeper Questionnaires to Capture Zoo-Housed Tiger (Panthera tigris) Personality: Considerations for Animal Management

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 650-663
Author(s):  
Natalie Bullock ◽  
Charlotte James ◽  
Ellen Williams
Keyword(s):  
Best Practice ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Panthera Tigris ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Personality Differences ◽  
Best Practice Guidelines ◽  
Animal Management ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Individual personalities affect animal experiences of zoo environments, impact on an animal’s coping ability and have potential implications for welfare. Keeper assessments have been identified as a quick and reliable way of capturing data on personality in a range of species and have practical application in improving animal welfare on an individual level. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of animal personality within a zoo environment, there is a paucity of research into tiger personality and the potential impact of this on tiger experiences within zoos. This research investigated the personality of 34 tigers (19 Amur and 15 Sumatran) across 14 facilities in the UK using keeper ratings and identified changes keepers made in animal husbandry to support tiger welfare. Reliability across keepers (n = 49) was established for nine adjectives and a principal component analysis identified three personality components: ‘anxious’, ‘quiet’ and ‘sociable’. When subspecies were combined, there was no relationship between tiger scores on the personality components and age or sex of tigers (p > 0.05). Subspecies of tiger was not related to scores on the ‘quiet’ or ‘sociable’ components (p > 0.05). Sumatran tigers scored more highly than Amur tigers on the ‘anxious’ component (mean ± SD, Sumatran: 3.0 ± 1.7, Amur: 1.8 ± 0.6, p < 0.05). Analysis within subspecies found that male Amur tigers were more sociable than females (mean ± SD, males: 5.5 ± 0.707; females: 4.15 ± 0.55). Amur tiger age was also negatively correlated with scores on the sociable personality component (R = −0.742, p < 0.05). No significant differences were seen in Sumatran tigers. Keepers reported a number of changes to husbandry routines based on their perceptions of their tigers’ personality/needs. However, there was no significant relationship between these changes and tiger personality scores (p > 0.05). Despite significant evolutionary differences between Amur and Sumatran tigers, there are no subspecies specific guidelines for zoo tigers. This research has highlighted the potential for these two subspecies to display personality differences and we advocate further research into this area. Specifically, we highlight a need to validate the relationship between tiger personality, management protocols and behavioural and physiological metrics of welfare. This will enable a fuller understanding of the impact of personality on zoo tiger experiences and will enable identification of evidence-based best practice guidelines.

scholarly journals The impact of active case finding among high-risk populations on the decline of tuberculosis incidence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Tomczak ◽  
Dominika Warmjak ◽  
Aneta Wiśniewska
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Case Finding ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Active Case Finding ◽  
Disease Dynamics ◽  
Active Screening ◽  
Active Case ◽  
The Impact

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In 2019 the WHO reported approximately 10 million TB cases and 1.4 million deaths worldwide. TB still remains one of the leading causes of death in humans. Brazil is one of 30 countries with the highest TB burden with 96,000 new cases and 6,700 deaths reported in 2019. From 2015 the TB incidence is increasing by 2%–3% annually. It means that TB control programs need to be improved. Aim: Our aim is to show the impact of active case finding of TB cases among a high-risk subpopulation on decline of the incidence in the general population. Material and methods: We use a SIS-type compartmental mathematical model to describe the disease dynamics. We consider the population as a heterogeneous population which differ in disease transmission risk. Using best-fit techniques we compare the actual data with the model. For the fitted parameters we calculate the basic reproduction number and estimate the TB trends for the next few years applying several preventative protocols. Results and discussion: Using numerical simulations we examine the impact of ACF on the disease dynamics. We show that active screening among high risk subpopulations can help to reduce TB spread. We show how the reproduction number and estimated incidence decline depend on the detection rate. Conclusions: Active screening is one of the most effective ways for reducing the spread of disease. However, due to financial constraints, it can only be used to a limited extent. Properly applied detection can limit the spread of the disease while minimizing costs.

scholarly journals Optimising social mixing strategies achieving COVID-19 herd immunity while minimising mortality in six European countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romain Ragonnet ◽  
Guillaume Briffoteaux ◽  
Bridget M. Williams ◽  
Julian Savulescu ◽  
Matthew Segal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Horizon ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
The Past ◽  
Social Mixing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

AbstractStrategies are needed to minimise the impact of COVID-19 in the medium-to-long term, until safe and effective vaccines can be used. Using a mathematical model in a formal optimisation framework, we identified contact mitigation strategies that minimised COVID-19-related mortality over a time-horizon of 15 months while achieving herd immunity in six or 12 months, in Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. We show that manipulation of social contacts by age can reduce the impact of COVID-19 considerably in the presence of intense transmission. If immunity was persistent, the optimised scenarios would result in herd immunity while causing a number of deaths considerably lower than that observed during the March-April European wave in Belgium, France, Spain and Sweden, whereas the numbers of deaths required to achieve herd immunity would be comparable to somewhat larger that the past epidemics in Italy and the UK. Our results also suggest that countries’ herd immunity thresholds may be considerably lower than first estimated for SARS-CoV-2. If post-infection immunity was short-lived, ongoing contact mitigation would be required to prevent major epidemic resurgence.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document