scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2 pandemic dynamics and infection tracing in Denmark

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Morten W.N. Jørgensen ◽  
Niels Høiby ◽  
Hans J. Ziock ◽  
Steen Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Local Infection ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Testing Program ◽  
Current Program ◽  
Daily Sampling ◽  
National Testing ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Proper Balance ◽  
Antibody Population

AbstractWe model and simulate the COVID-19 infection and healthcare dynamics in Denmark from the onset till March 5, 2021. The simulation is matched and calibrated to hospital and death data as well as antibody population measurement. In this work we focus on comparing the time evolution of the estimated infection level with the daily identified infected individuals based on the national testing and contact tracing program. We find that the national testing program on average identifies 1/3 of the infected individuals July 1, 2020 - March 5, 2021. Our investigations indicate the current program does not have a proper balance between random probing, focused contact tracing, and testing prioritization. Too much of the program operates as a semi-random daily sampling of part of the population. We propose a policy with a focus on local infection tracing and interventions.

scholarly journals Modelling COVID-19 outbreaks in USA with distinct testing, lockdown speed and fatigue rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 210227
Author(s):  
J. C. Macdonald ◽  
C. Browne ◽  
H. Gulbudak
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
True Number ◽  
Behavioural Reaction ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Inverse Proportionality

Each state in the USA exhibited a unique response to the COVID-19 outbreak, along with variable levels of testing, leading to different actual case burdens in the country. In this study, via per capita testing dependent ascertainment rates, along with case and death data, we fit a minimal epidemic model for each state. We estimate infection-level responsive lockdown/self-quarantine entry and exit rates (representing government and behavioural reaction), along with the true number of cases as of 31 May 2020. Ultimately, we provide error-corrected estimates for commonly used metrics such as infection fatality ratio and overall case ascertainment for all 55 states and territories considered, along with the USA in aggregate, in order to correlate outbreak severity with first wave intervention attributes and suggest potential management strategies for future outbreaks. We observe a theoretically predicted inverse proportionality relation between outbreak size and lockdown rate, with scale dependent on the underlying reproduction number and simulations suggesting a critical population quarantine ‘half-life’ of 30 days independent of other model parameters.

scholarly journals A how-to-guide to building a robust SARS-CoV-2 testing program at a university-based health system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen D. Nimer ◽  
Jennifer Chapman ◽  
Lisa Reidy ◽  
Alvaro Alencar ◽  
Yanyun Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Diagnostic Laboratory ◽  
Testing Program ◽  
Detection Program ◽  
Workforce Needs ◽  
Testing Protocols ◽  
Test Ordering

AbstractWhen South Florida became a hotspot for COVID-19 disease in March 2020, we faced an urgent need to develop test capability to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection. We assembled a transdisciplinary team of knowledgeable and dedicated physicians, scientists, technologists and administrators, who rapidly built a multi-platform, PCR- and serology-based detection program, established drive-thru facilities and drafted and implemented guidelines that enabled efficient testing of our patients and employees. This process was extremely complex, due to the limited availability of needed reagents, but outreach to our research scientists and to multiple diagnostic laboratory companies and government officials enabled us to implement both FDA authorized and laboratory developed testing (LDT)-based testing protocols. We analyzed our workforce needs and created teams of appropriately skilled and certified workers, to safely process patient samples and conduct SARS-CoV-2 testing and contact tracing. We initiated smart test ordering, interfaced all testing platforms with our electronic medical record, and went from zero testing capacity, to testing hundreds of healthcare workers and patients daily, within three weeks. We believe our experience can inform the efforts of others, when faced with a crisis situation.

scholarly journals Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teresa Yamana ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Jeffrey Shaman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
County Level ◽  
Metapopulation Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hospital Bed ◽  
Us Counties ◽  
Death Data

AbstractIn March and April 2020, control measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual movement and contact were adopted across the United States in an effort to slow the spread and growth of COVID-19. However, a number of states have now begun to ease these restrictions. Here, we evaluate the effects of loosening stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 incidence and related outcomes. We use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the United States. We calibrate the model against county-level daily case and death data collected from February 21, 2020 to May 2, 2020, and project the outbreak in 3,142 US counties for 6 weeks into the future. Projections for daily reported cases, daily new infections (both reported and unreported), new and cumulative hospital bed demand, ICU bed and ventilator demand, as well as daily mortality, are generated. We observe a rebound in COVID-19 incidence and deaths beginning in late May, approximately 2 to 4 weeks after states begin to reopen. Importantly, the lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient broader testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of the COVID-19 until it is well underway.

scholarly journals Educational Accountability and Students with a Disability in Australia

2005 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Dempsey ◽  
Robert Conway
Keyword(s):  
Education Reform ◽  
Regular Education ◽  
Educational Equity ◽  
International Comparisons ◽  
Educational Accountability ◽  
School Students ◽  
Testing Program ◽  
National Testing ◽  
Students With A Disability

One of the outcomes of regular education reform in Australia has been the development of a national testing program for school students. This article examines the degree to which students with a disability participate in this testing, and the extent to which the testing of students with a disability may help to achieve the National Goals of Schooling in this country. Several international comparisons with the Australian situation are made. A number of recommendations are made to facilitate the participation of students with a disability in national testing as a means of achieving the goal of educational equity for these students.

scholarly journals Association between COVID-19 infection rates by region and implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions: A cross-sectional study in Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomomi Anan ◽  
Tomohiro Ishimaru ◽  
Ayako Hino ◽  
Tomohisa Nagata ◽  
Seiichiro Tateishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Local Infection ◽  
Sectional Study ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Background: During a pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) play an important role in protecting oneself from infection and preventing the spread of infection to others. There are large regional differences in COVID-19 infection rates in Japan. We hypothesized that the local infection incidence may affect adherence to individual NPIs. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted online among full-time workers in Japan in December 2020. Data from a total of 27,036 participants were analyzed. The questionnaire asked the respondents to identify their habits regarding seven well-known NPIs. Results: Compared to the region with the lowest infection rate, the odds ratios for the region with the highest infection rate were 1.24 (p<0.001) for wearing a mask in public, 1.08 (p=0.157) for washing hands after using the bathroom, 1.17 (p=0.031) for disinfecting hands with alcohol sanitizers when entering indoors, 1.54 (p<0.001) for gargling when returning home, 1.45 (p<0.001) for ventilating the room, 1.33 (p<0.001) for disinfecting or washing hands after touching frequently touched surfaces, and 1.32 (p<0.001) for carrying alcohol sanitizers when outdoors. Five of the seven NPIs showed statistically significant trends across regional infection levels, the two exceptions being wearing a mask in public and washing hands after using the bathroom. Multivariate adjustment did not change these trends. Conclusions: This study found that NPIs were more prevalent in regions with higher incidence rates of COVID-19 in Japanese workers. The findings suggest that the implementation of NPIs was influenced not only by personal attributes but also by contextual effects of the local infection level.

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 outbreaks in United States with distinct testing, lockdown speed and fatigue rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Macdonald ◽  
C. Browne ◽  
H. Gulbudak
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
True Number ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Inverse Proportionality

Each state in the United States exhibited a unique response to the COVID-19 outbreak, along with variable levels of testing, leading to different actual case burdens in the country. In this study, via per-capita testing dependent ascertainment rates, along with case and death data, we fit a minimal epidemic model for each state. We estimate infection-level responsive lockdown entry and exit rates (representing government and behavioral reaction), along with the true number of cases as of May 31, 2020. Ultimately we provide error corrected estimates for commonly used metrics such as infection fatality ratio and overall case ascertainment for all 55 states and territories considered, along with the United States in aggregate, in order to correlate outbreak severity with first wave intervention attributes and suggest potential management strategies for future outbreaks. We observe a theoretically predicted inverse proportionality relation between outbreak size and lockdown rate, with scale dependent on the underlying reproduction number and simulations suggesting a critical population quarantine “half-life” of 30 days independent of other model parameters.

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