scholarly journals Modelling COVID-19 outbreaks in USA with distinct testing, lockdown speed and fatigue rates

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 210227
Author(s):  
J. C. Macdonald ◽  
C. Browne ◽  
H. Gulbudak
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
True Number ◽  
Behavioural Reaction ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Inverse Proportionality

Each state in the USA exhibited a unique response to the COVID-19 outbreak, along with variable levels of testing, leading to different actual case burdens in the country. In this study, via per capita testing dependent ascertainment rates, along with case and death data, we fit a minimal epidemic model for each state. We estimate infection-level responsive lockdown/self-quarantine entry and exit rates (representing government and behavioural reaction), along with the true number of cases as of 31 May 2020. Ultimately, we provide error-corrected estimates for commonly used metrics such as infection fatality ratio and overall case ascertainment for all 55 states and territories considered, along with the USA in aggregate, in order to correlate outbreak severity with first wave intervention attributes and suggest potential management strategies for future outbreaks. We observe a theoretically predicted inverse proportionality relation between outbreak size and lockdown rate, with scale dependent on the underlying reproduction number and simulations suggesting a critical population quarantine ‘half-life’ of 30 days independent of other model parameters.

scholarly journals Modeling COVID-19 outbreaks in United States with distinct testing, lockdown speed and fatigue rates

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. C. Macdonald ◽  
C. Browne ◽  
H. Gulbudak
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Entry And Exit ◽  
Infection Level ◽  
Actual Case ◽  
True Number ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Inverse Proportionality

Each state in the United States exhibited a unique response to the COVID-19 outbreak, along with variable levels of testing, leading to different actual case burdens in the country. In this study, via per-capita testing dependent ascertainment rates, along with case and death data, we fit a minimal epidemic model for each state. We estimate infection-level responsive lockdown entry and exit rates (representing government and behavioral reaction), along with the true number of cases as of May 31, 2020. Ultimately we provide error corrected estimates for commonly used metrics such as infection fatality ratio and overall case ascertainment for all 55 states and territories considered, along with the United States in aggregate, in order to correlate outbreak severity with first wave intervention attributes and suggest potential management strategies for future outbreaks. We observe a theoretically predicted inverse proportionality relation between outbreak size and lockdown rate, with scale dependent on the underlying reproduction number and simulations suggesting a critical population quarantine “half-life” of 30 days independent of other model parameters.

scholarly journals Limits to Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Roel Puijk
Keyword(s):  
Public Service ◽  
Innovation Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Production Studies ◽  
The Enlightenment ◽  
External Pressures ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Main Programme ◽  
New Situation

Abstract Production studies have become popular over the past decade. Recent studies have analysed, amongst other things, innovation, management strategies and the effects of convergence on editorial processes. There have only been a few studies that have analysed what happened inside media organisations in the earlier transformative stages (outside the UK and the USA). This paper analyses how the Norwegian public service broadcaster (NRK) adapted to the loss of its monopoly and the beginning of competition during the mid-1980s. It provides a window into how the flagship of public service, the Enlightenment Department, dealt with the new situation. If one follows the production process of the main programme of the department (with the revealing working title ‘Flagship’) from its conception to its realisation as a weekly programme broadcast in prime time, this reveals how innovation at the time was restricted by organisational arrangements, internal values and external pressures. The programme makers included many elements that are still today considered to be advantageous in factual programming (humour, dramatization, popularisation, serialization, recognition, and even interactivity). Along the way several of these were changed: what had started as a proposal for a documentary series turned into something that was predominantly a discussion programme.

scholarly journals On the use of real-time reported mortality data in modelling and analysis during an epidemic outbreak

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 128
Author(s):  
Per Liljenberg
Keyword(s):  
Standard Procedure ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Mathematical Relationship ◽  
Infected People ◽  
True Number ◽  
Reporting Delay ◽  
Death Data ◽  
Death Date

Background: For diseases like Covid-19, where it has been difficult to identify the true number of infected people, or where the number of known cases is heavily influenced by the number of tests performed, hospitalizations and deaths play a significant role in understanding the epidemic and in determining the appropriate response. However, the Covid-19 deaths data reported by some countries display a significant weekly variability, which can make the interpretation and use of the death data in analysis and modeling difficult. Methods: We derive the mathematical relationship between the series of new daily deaths by reporting date and the series of deaths by death date. We then apply this formalism to the corresponding time-series reported by Sweden during the Covid-19 pandemic. Results: The practice of reporting new deaths daily, as is standard procedure during an outbreak in most countries and regions, should be viewed as a time-dependent filter, modulating the underlying true death curve. After having characterized the Swedish reporting process, we show how smoothing of the Swedish reported daily deaths series results in a curve distinctly different from the true death curve. We also comment on the use of nowcasting methods. Conclusions: Modelers and analysts using the series of new daily deaths by reporting date should take extra care when it is highly variable and when there is a significant reporting delay. It might be appropriate to instead use the series of deaths by death date combined with a nowcasting algorithm as basis for their analysis.

Is consumer forgiveness possible?

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 1567-1587 ◽  
Author(s):  
JungYun (Christine) Hur ◽  
SooCheong (Shawn) Jang
Keyword(s):  
Service Management ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Service Failure ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Service Failures ◽  
Recovery Strategies ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Hotel Managers

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how consumer forgiveness is formed by examining rumination and distraction by consumers in hotel service failures.Design/methodology/approachData were collected using a self-administered questionnaire in the USA. A total of 371 usable responses were obtained. Anderson and Gerbing’s two-step approach was used to assess the measurement and structural models.FindingsThis study suggests that rumination and distraction play significant roles in processing consumer forgiveness. Self-focused rumination and distraction increase consumer forgiveness, whereas provocation-focused rumination exacerbates the negative effects of service failure severity on consumer forgiveness. This study also shows that gender differences exist. Men were more likely than women to link self-focused rumination and distraction to their intentions to forgive a service provider.Practical implicationsThis study is helpful for hotel managers to understand the mechanisms of consumer forgiveness in service failures and develop effective recovery strategies. Managers should aim to lessen consumers’ provocation-focused rumination while encouraging self-focused rumination and distraction. In addition, because of the differences in the process of consumer forgiveness between men and women, it is critical to differentiate the two groups in designing targeted recovery strategies for service failures.Originality/valueThis study investigates consumer forgiveness as a behavioral outcome following service failures that may help consumers achieve psychological balance and allow service providers a chance to restore the broken relationship. This study adds new information for understanding consumer responses and provides a basis for effective service management strategies.

Effects of Diseases on Soybean Yields in the United States 1996 to 2007

2009 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allen Wrather ◽  
Steve Koenning
Keyword(s):  
Soybean Cyst Nematode ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cyst Nematode ◽  
Disease Suppression ◽  
Stem Rot ◽  
Soybean Yield ◽  
Funding Agencies ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Soybean Diseases

Research must focus on management of diseases that cause extensive losses, especially when funds for research are limited. Knowledge of yield suppression caused by various soybean diseases is essential when prioritizing research. The objective of this project was to compile estimates of soybean yield suppression due to diseases in the USA from 1996 to 2007. The goal was to provide information to help funding agencies and scientists prioritize research objectives and budgets. Yield suppression due to individual diseases varied among years. Soybean cyst nematode suppressed USA soybean yield more from 1996 to 2007 than any other disease. Phytophthora root and stem rot ranked second among diseases that most suppressed yield seven of 12 years. Seedling diseases and charcoal rot also suppressed soybean yield during these years. Research and extension efforts must be expanded to provide more preventive and therapeutic disease management strategies for producers to reduce disease suppression of soybean yield. Accepted for publication 25 February 2009. Published 1 April 2009.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Characteristics of Recent Major Wildfires in the USA, Australia and Brazil in 2018–2019 Using Multi-Source Satellite Products

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahlatse Kganyago ◽  
Lerato Shikwambana
Keyword(s):  
Forest Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Fire Intensity ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

This study analysed the characteristics of the recent (2018–2019) wildfires that occurred in the USA, Brazil, and Australia using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fires (AF), fire radiative power (FRP, MW) and burned area (BA) products. Meteorological and environmental parameters were also analysed. The study found various patterns in the spatial distribution of fires, FRP and BA at the three sites, associated with various vegetation compositions, prevailing meteorological and environmental conditions and anthropogenic activities. We found significant fire clusters along the western and eastern coasts of the USA and Australia, respectively, while vastly distributed clusters were found in Brazil. Across all sites, significant fire intensity was recorded over forest cover (FC) and shrublands (SL), attributed to highly combustible tree crown fuel load characterised by leafy canopies and thin branches. In agreement, BA over FC was the highest in the USA and Australia, while Brazil was dominated by the burning of SL, characteristic of fire-tolerant Cerrado. The relatively lower BA over FC in Brazil can be attributed to fuel availability and proximity to highly flammable cover types such as cropland, SL and grasslands rather than fuel flammability. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of wildfires in various regions and the underlying environmental and meteorological causal factors, towards better wildfire disaster management strategies and habitat-specific firefighting.

Impacts of outliers and mis-specification of priors on Bayesian fisheries-stock assessment

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (11) ◽  
pp. 2293-2305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Chen ◽  
P A Breen ◽  
N L Andrew
Keyword(s):  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fish Stock ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Prior Distributions ◽  
Likelihood Functions ◽  
Robust Likelihood

Bayesian inference is increasingly used in estimating model parameters for fish-stock assessment, because of its ability to incorporate uncertainty and prior knowledge and to provide information for risk analyses in evaluating alternative management strategies. Normal distributions are commonly used in formulating likelihood functions and informative prior distributions; these are sensitive to data outliers and mis-specification of prior distributions, both common problems in fisheries-stock assessment. Using a length-structured stock-assessment model for a New Zealand abalone fishery as an example, we evaluate the robustness of three likelihood functions and two prior-distribution functions, with respect to outliers and mis-specification of priors, in 48 different combinations. The two robust likelihood estimators performed slightly less well when no data outliers were present and much better when data outliers were present. Similarly, the Cauchy distribution was less sensitive to prior mis-specification than the normal distribution. We conclude that replacing the normal distribution with "fat-tailed" distributions for likelihoods and priors can improve Bayesian assessments when there are data outliers and mis-specification of priors, with relatively minor costs when there are none.

scholarly journals Shell growth of sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) in the southern and northern Great South Channel, USA

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (5) ◽  
pp. 811-821 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley P. Harris ◽  
Kevin D.E. Stokesbury
Keyword(s):  
Shell Growth ◽  
Shell Height ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Height Distribution ◽  
Placopecten Magellanicus ◽  
Geographic Scale ◽  
Sea Scallop ◽  
Asymptotic Size ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Sea Scallops

Abstract Shell growth of sea scallops in two commercially productive regions of the Great South Channel (GSC) (41°4′N 69°16′W) was studied using tag–recapture experiments. Commercial fishers captured and returned 9.7% of the 11 704 sea scallops tagged in the southern GSC study area, and 7.9% of the 18 274 sea scallops tagged in the northern GSC study area. Scallop density and shell height distribution were sampled with underwater video in the two study areas. In the southern GSC tagged scallops grew faster, reached larger asymptotic size, and had higher growth performance (Φ′) than in the northern GSC study area. Mean sea scallop density in the southern GSC was 0.117 scallops m−2 (s.e. = 0.01), and 2.601 scallops m−2 (s.e. = 0.28) in the northern GSC. Environmental factors, fishing pressure, and sea scallop density all influence shell growth on a fine geographic scale (1–100 km2) and should be considered in area-specific management strategies, such as that currently used in the USA sea scallop fishery.

Candida and Breastfeeding: A Critical Commentary on the Dilemmas Around Diagnosis, Treatment, and Management

2020 ◽  
pp. CLINLACT-D-20-00007
Author(s):  
Denise McGuinness ◽  
Marcelina Szafranska
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Professionals ◽  
Clinical Skills ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Accurate Diagnosis ◽  
Breast Pain ◽  
Correct Treatment ◽  
Diagnosis And Management ◽  
Critical Commentary ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Robust Evidence

ObjectiveThe etiology of nipple pain in breastfeeding women can be challenging for healthcare professionals. The most common cause of nipple pain or damage in breastfeeding women is poor latch and positioning of the baby at the breast (Duncan, 2015). However, when position and attachment is not identified as the cause, controversy exists as to the etiology of the pain with nipple or breast thrush identified as a probable suspect.MethodThe literature was reviewed to explore the diagnosis and management of thrush in breastfeeding women.ResultsThere is a lack of robust evidence in the literature to support an accurate diagnosis of candida as the cause of nipple and/or deep breast pain in breastfeeding women. Diagnosis and management strategies vary between the USA and Europe.ConclusionIt is important that clinicians supporting and working with breastfeeding women are aware of the differential diagnosis for both breast and nipple pain, as well as utilize their clinical skills effectively to offer the correct treatment and management to women presenting with candida like symptoms (Amir et al., 2013, Wilson-Clay and Hoover, 2017). Culture and sensitivity of mothers expressed milk may be supportive of a diagnosis; however, analysis of mothers’ milk is not without its challenges. Breastfeeding women should not be treated for potential candida infection with a traditional clinical examination alone.

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