REACT-1 round 10 report: Level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in England during third national lockdown in March 2021

AbstractBackgroundIn England, hospitalisations and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 have been falling consistently since January 2021 during the third national lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic. The first significant relaxation of that lockdown occurred on 8 March when schools reopened.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study augments routine surveillance data for England by measuring swab-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 in the community. The current round, round 10, collected swabs from 11 to 30 March 2021 and is compared here to round 9, in which swabs were collected from 4 to 23 February 2021.ResultsDuring round 10, we estimated an R number of 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.81, 1.21). Between rounds 9 and 10 we estimated national prevalence has dropped by ∼60% from 0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%) in February to 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%) in March. There were substantial falls in weighted regional prevalence: in South East from 0.36% (0.29%, 0.44%) in round 9 to 0.07% (0.04%, 0.12%) in round 10; London from 0.60% (0.48%, 0.76%) to 0.16% (0.10%, 0.26%); East of England from 0.47% (0.36%, 0.60%) to 0.15% (0.10%, 0.24%); East Midlands from 0.59% (0.45%, 0.77%) to 0.19% (0.13%, 0.28%); and North West from 0.69% (0.54%, 0.88%) to 0.31% (0.21%, 0.45%). Areas of apparent higher prevalence remain in parts of the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber. The highest prevalence in March was found among school-aged children 5 to 12 years at 0.41% (0.27%, 0.62%), compared with the lowest in those aged 65 to 74 and 75 and over at 0.09% (0.05%, 0.16%). The close approximation between prevalence of infections and deaths (suitably lagged) is diverging, suggesting that infections may have resulted in fewer hospitalisations and deaths since the start of widespread vaccination.ConclusionWe report a sharp decline in prevalence of infections between February and March 2021. We did not observe an increase in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 following the reopening of schools in England, although the decline of prevalence appears to have stopped. Future rounds of REACT-1 will be able to measure the rate of growth or decline from this current plateau and hence help assess the effectiveness of the vaccination roll-out on transmission of the virus as well as the potential size of any third wave during the ensuing months.

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High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity and increasing R number in England during October 2020: REACT-1 round 6 interim report

10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Steven Riley ◽

Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽

Oliver Eales ◽

Caroline E. Walters ◽

Haowei Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hospital Admissions ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Age Groups ◽

North West ◽

The North ◽

East Midlands ◽

High Prevalence ◽

Previous Round ◽

Time Critical ◽

Estimate Prevalence

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 measures prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in representative samples of the population in England using PCR testing from self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report interim results for round 6 of observations for swabs collected from the 16th to 25th October 2020 inclusive.MethodsREACT-1 round 6 aims to collect data and swab results from 160,000 people aged 5 and above. Here we report results from the first 86,000 individuals. We estimate prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, reproduction numbers (R) and temporal trends using exponential growth or decay models. Prevalence estimates are presented both unweighted and weighted to be representative of the population of England, accounting for response rate, region, deprivation and ethnicity. We compare these interim results with data from round 5, based on swabs collected from 18th September to 5th October 2020 inclusive.ResultsOverall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28% or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round. Infections were doubling every 9.0 (6.1, 18) days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) compared to 1.16 (1.05, 1.27) in the previous round. Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72% (2.12%, 3.50%), up from 0.84% (0.60%, 1.17%), and the North West at 2.27% (1.90%, 2.72%), up from 1.21% (1.01%, 1.46%), and lowest in South East at 0.55% (0.45%, 0.68%), up from 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Clustering of cases was more prevalent in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, West Midlands and East Midlands. Interim estimates of R were above 2 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but with wide confidence intervals. Nationally, prevalence increased across all age groups with the greatest increase in those aged 55-64 at 1.20% (0.99%, 1.46%), up 3-fold from 0.37% (0.30%, 0.46%). In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81% (0.58%, 0.96%) up 2-fold from 0.35% (0.28%, 0.43%). Prevalence remained highest in 18 to 24-year olds at 2.25% (1.47%, 3.42%).ConclusionThe co-occurrence of high prevalence and rapid growth means that the second wave of the epidemic in England has now reached a critical stage. Whether via regional or national measures, it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below one if further hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19 are to be avoided.

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High and increasing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity in England during end September beginning October 2020: REACT-1 round 5 updated report

10.1101/2020.10.12.20211227 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Steven Riley ◽

Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽

Oliver Eales ◽

Caroline E. Walters ◽

Haowei Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hospital Admissions ◽

Regional Growth ◽

Age Groups ◽

North West ◽

North East ◽

The North ◽

Random Samples ◽

High Prevalence ◽

National Prevalence ◽

Representative Samples

AbstractBackgroundREACT-1 is quantifying prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among random samples of the population in England based on PCR testing of self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report results from the fifth round of observations for swabs collected from the 18th September to 5th October 2020. This report updates and should be read alongside our round 5 interim report.MethodsRepresentative samples of the population aged 5 years and over in England with sample size ranging from 120,000 to 175,000 people at each round. Prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, estimation of reproduction number (R) and time trends between and within rounds using exponential growth or decay models.Results175,000 volunteers tested across England between 18th September and 5th October. Findings show a national prevalence of 0.60% (95% confidence interval 0.55%, 0.71%) and doubling of the virus every 29 (17, 84) days in England corresponding to an estimated national R of 1.16 (1.05, 1.27). These results correspond to 1 in 170 people currently swab-positive for the virus and approximately 45,000 new infections each day. At regional level, the highest prevalence is in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and the North East with strongest regional growth in North West, Yorkshire and The Humber and West Midlands.ConclusionRapid growth has led to high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in England, with highest rates in the North of England. Prevalence has increased in all age groups, including those at highest risk. Improved compliance with existing policy and, as necessary, additional interventions are required to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the community and limit the numbers of hospital admissions and deaths from COVID-19.

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Alliterative Narrative Poetry: The Control of the Medium

Traditio ◽

10.1017/s0362152900007121 ◽

1988 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

pp. 419-451 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

John Finlayson

Keyword(s):

Literary History ◽

Time Frame ◽

Geographic Region ◽

North West ◽

Narrative Poetry ◽

The North ◽

East Midlands ◽

Alliterative Poetry ◽

Historical Fact ◽

Alliterative Revival

Critical approaches to alliterative poetry can and do include all the approaches imposed on literature in general. But to these must be added approaches particular to the fact that we confront a body of literature defined by a distinctive, some would say peculiar, metrical form. Alliterative poetry has been accorded a separate status precisely because it is alliterative, flourished in a relatively short time-frame, and is associated with a geographic region. For most of this century, the Alliterative Revival has reigned as an historical fact — a nationalistic metrical response, fostered by the North West Midlands baronial families, to the increasing power of the Court in the East Midlands and the pernicious influence of foreign, mainly French fashions, particularly poetic. In the last fifteen years, and at a galloping pace in the last ten, we have seen one of the massive certainties of literary history first quietly mined by the late Elizabeth Salter, and then besieged, assaulted, and overrun by an increasing band of scholarly invaders numbering among them Norman Blake, Derek Pearsall, T. Turville-Petre, and David Lawton. The Theory of the Alliterative Revival, once a Castle of Truth, now lies in ruins, picked over by its destroyers for useful material with which to build a new Tower on a Tofte. While the orthodox view of the alliterative revival has been disestablished, and no single creed has yet emerged as an authoritative substitute, there is currently underway a major re-assessment of alliterative poetry, which has both been caused by and also generated a substantial increase in scholarly knowledge of the field. The questions that have been posed and continue to be explored are mainly of the following kind: Was there a revival or simply a continuation? How and where was this revival/continuation generated and located? Should we distinguish sub-groups of alliterative poetry according to metrical variants? How do we scan alliterative verse? What are the origins of or influences on the metres and rhythms of the great alliterative works of the late fourteenth century?

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REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant

10.1101/2021.06.17.21259103 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Steven Riley ◽

Caroline E. Walters ◽

Haowei Wang ◽

Oliver Eales ◽

David Haw ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Exponential Growth ◽

Hospital Admissions ◽

Close Monitoring ◽

Infection Rates ◽

North West ◽

The North ◽

Successful Vaccine ◽

Random Samples ◽

Rapid Replacement ◽

National Prevalence

Abstract Background England entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases and hospitalisations have started to increase since the end of May as the SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant increases in frequency. The final step of relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in England has been delayed from 21 June to 19 July 2021. Methods The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmision-1 (REACT-1) study measures the prevalence of swab-positivity among random samples of the population of England. Round 12 of REACT-1 obtained self-administered swab collections from participants from 20 May 2021 to 7 June 2021; results are compared with those for round 11, in which swabs were collected from 15 April to 3 May 2021. Results Between rounds 11 and 12, national prevalence increased from 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%) to 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). During round 12, we detected exponential growth with a doubling time of 11 (7.1, 23) days and an R number of 1.44 (1.20, 1.73). The highest prevalence was found in the North West at 0.26% (0.16%, 0.41%) compared to 0.05% (0.02%, 0.12%) in the South West. In the North West, the locations of positive samples suggested a cluster in Greater Manchester and the east Lancashire area. Prevalence in those aged 5-49 was 2.5 times higher at 0.20% (0.16%, 0.26%) compared with those aged 50 years and above at 0.08% (0.06%, 0.11%). At the beginning of February 2021, the link between infection rates and hospitalisations and deaths started to weaken, although in late April 2021, infection rates and hospital admissions started to reconverge. When split by age, the weakened link between infection rates and hospitalisations at ages 65 years and above was maintained, while the trends converged below the age of 65 years. The majority of the infections in the younger group occurred in the unvaccinated population or those without a stated vaccine history. We observed the rapid replacement of the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant of SARS-CoV-2 with the Delta variant during the period covered by rounds 11 and 12 of the study. Discussion The extent to which exponential growth continues, or slows down as a consequence of the continued rapid roll-out of the vaccination programme, including to young adults, requires close monitoring. Data on community prevalence are vital to track the course of the epidemic and inform ongoing decisions about the timing of further lifting of restrictions in England.

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REACT-1 round 6 updated report: high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity with reduced rate of growth in England at the start of November 2020

10.1101/2020.11.18.20233932 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Steven Riley ◽

Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽

Oliver Eales ◽

Caroline E. Walters ◽

Haowei Wang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Situational Awareness ◽

Infection Prevalence ◽

The South ◽

North West ◽

North East ◽

The North ◽

East Midlands ◽

Multiple Regions ◽

The Impact ◽

Weighted Prevalence

AbstractBackgroundEngland is now in the midst of its second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple regions of the country are at high infection prevalence and all areas experienced rapid recent growth of the epidemic during October 2020.MethodsREACT-1 is a series of community surveys of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR swab-positivity in England designed to monitor the spread of the epidemic and thus increase situational awareness. Round 6 of REACT-1 commenced swab-collection on 16th October. A prior interim report included data from 16th to 25th October for 85,971 participants. Here, we report data for the entire round on 160,175 participants with swab results obtained up to 2nd November 2020.ResultsOverall weighted prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.3% or 130 people per 10,000 infected, up from 60 people per 10,000 in the round 5 report (18th September to 5th October 2020), doubling every 24 days on average since the prior round. The corresponding R number was estimated to be 1.2. Prevalence of infection was highest in North West (2.4%, up from 1.2%), followed by Yorkshire and The Humber (2.3% up from 0.84%), West Midlands (1.6% up from 0.60%), North East (1.5% up from 1.1%), East Midlands (1.3% up from 0.56%), London (0.97%, up from 0.54%), South West (0.80% up from 0.33%), South East (0.69% up from 0.29%), and East of England (0.69% up from 0.30%). Rapid growth in the South observed in the first half of round 6 was no longer apparent in the second half of round 6. We also observed a decline in prevalence in Yorkshire and The Humber during this period. Comparing the first and second halves of round 6, there was a suggestion of decline in weighted prevalence in participants aged 5 to 12 years and in those aged 25 to 44 years. While prevalence remained high, in the second half of round 6 there was suggestion of a slight fall then rise that was seen nationally and also separately in both the North and the South.ConclusionThe impact of the second national lockdown in England is not yet known. We provide here a detailed description of swab-positivity patterns at national, regional and local scales for the period immediately preceding lockdown, against which future trends in prevalence can be evaluated.

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GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION AND MIGRATION ANALYSIS OF HEIGHT, WEIGHT AND BODY MASS INDEX IN A BRITISH COHORT STUDY

Journal of Biosocial Science ◽

10.1017/s0021932011000381 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 43 (6) ◽

pp. 733-749 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

MONIKA KRZYŻANOWSKA ◽

C. G. NICHOLAS MASCIE-TAYLOR

Keyword(s):

Body Mass Index ◽

Body Mass ◽

The South ◽

Negative Effects ◽

North West ◽

North East ◽

The North ◽

South West ◽

East Midlands ◽

West Midlands

SummaryUsing a sample of 2090 father and son pairs, the regional variation in height, weight and body mass index (BMI) with intra- and inter-generational migration within Britain was examined. Highly significant regional differences in means were found only for fathers. The overall mean height difference between regions ranged from about 2.7 cm to 3.1 cm, with the tallest fathers being found in the East & South-East region and the shortest in Wales. The variation in mean weight between regions was less significant, with the difference between the heaviest region (West Midlands) and lightest (South-West) being about 3.5 kg. For BMI the highest mean was in the North and Wales and the lowest in the South-West (difference of about 1 kg m−2). Intra-generational migrants were, on average, significantly taller than non-migrants for both fathers (+1.4 cm) and sons (+2 cm), but BMI was only significant in fathers, with migrant fathers, on average, having a lower BMI. There were no significant differences in weight between geographically mobile groups for either fathers or sons. Differentiating between regional in- and out-migration revealed that in the fathers' generation in-migrants were taller, on average, in six of the nine regions. The tallest in-migrants among fathers came into the North region; the tallest out-migrants were from Yorkshire & Humberside and the shortest were from Scotland. The largest positive gain on fathers' height was in the West Midlands region and Scotland, while negative effects were found in the Yorkshire & Humberside, East Midlands and East & South-East regions. For sons in-migrants were taller in all regions except Wales, with the largest differences between in-migrants and non-migrants being in the South-East and South-West. For out-migrants, the tallest sons came from Wales, while the shortest came from the East Midlands region. The North, East Midlands, East & South-East and West Midlands regions were net gainers, while Wales and Scotland were net losers. For BMI among fathers, in-migrants were of lower BMI than non-migrants. For out-migrant fathers, the North-West and South-West regions were the only two regions showing positive values, with the largest negative values being found in the East Midlands and Yorkshire & Humberside. The net effect of migration indicated that the largest gains were in the East Midlands and Yorkshire & Humberside regions and the largest losses were in Scotland and Wales. The inter-generational migration for BMI showed that in-migrating sons into the North-West and Wales had higher BMI than sedentes, while in-migrants into Yorkshire & Humberside were lower in BMI. In all regions out-migrants had lower BMI than non-migrants. The net effect of migration revealed that six of the nine regions were net gainers, while the Yorkshire & Humberside region was a net loser.

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REACT-1 round 15 final report: Increased breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections among adults who had received two doses of vaccine, but booster doses and first doses in children are providing important protection

10.1101/2021.12.14.21267806 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Marc Chadeau-Hyam ◽

Oliver Eales ◽

Barbara Bodinier ◽

Haowei Wang ◽

David Haw ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Logistic Regression ◽

Age Groups ◽

Vaccine Effectiveness ◽

Winter Period ◽

Final Report ◽

Third Wave ◽

Multiple Logistic Regression ◽

School Aged Children ◽

Community Transmission ◽

Weighted Prevalence

Background: It has been nearly a year since the first vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 were delivered in England. The third wave of COVID-19 in England began in May 2021 as the Delta variant began to outcompete and largely replace other strains. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) series of community surveys for SARS-CoV-2 infection has provided insights into transmission dynamics since May 2020. Round 15 of the REACT-1 study was carried out from 19 October to 5 November 2021. Methods: We estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV2 infection and used multiple logistic regression to analyse associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and demographic and other risk factors, based on RT-PCR results from self-administered throat and nose swabs in over 100,000 participants. We estimated (single-dose) vaccine effectiveness among children aged 12 to 17 years, and among adults compared swab-positivity in people who had received a third (booster) dose with those who had received two vaccine doses. We used splines to analyse time trends in swab-positivity. Results: During mid-October to early-November 2021, weighted prevalence was 1.57% (1.48%, 1.66%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). Weighted prevalence increased between rounds 14 and 15 across most age groups (including older ages, 65 years and over) and regions, with average reproduction number across rounds of R=1.09 (1.08, 1.11). During round 15, there was a fall in prevalence from a maximum around 20-21 October, with an R of 0.76 (0.70, 0.83), reflecting falls in prevalence at ages 17 years and below and 18 to 54 years. School-aged children had the highest weighted prevalence of infection: 4.95% (4.39%, 5.58%) in those aged 5 to 12 years and 5.21% (4.61%, 5.87%) in those aged 13 to 17 years. In multiple logistic regression, age, sex, key worker status and presence of one or more children in the home were associated with swab positivity. There was evidence of heterogeneity between rounds in swab positivity rates among vaccinated individuals at ages 18 to 64 years, and differences in key demographic and other variables between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults at these ages. Vaccine effectiveness against infection in children was estimated to be 56.2% (41.3%, 67.4%) in rounds 13, 14 and 15 combined, adjusted for demographic factors, with a similar estimate obtained for round 15 only. Among adults we found that those who received a third dose of vaccine were less likely to test positive compared to those who received only two vaccine doses, with adjusted odds ratio (OR) =0.38 (0.26, 0.55). Discussion: Swab-positivity was very high at the start of round 15, reaching a maximum around 20 to 21 October 2021, and then falling through late October with an uncertain trend in the last few days of data collection. The observational nature of survey data and the relatively small proportion of unvaccinated adults call into question the comparability of vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at this relatively late stage in the vaccination programme. However, third vaccine doses for eligible adults and the vaccination of children aged 12 years and over are associated with lower infection risk and, thus, remain a high priority (with possible extension to children aged 5-12 years). These should help reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the winter period when healthcare demands typically rise.

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SEM and TEM observations of sperm development in the testis of the freshwater fish Oreochromis mossambicus

Proceedings, annual meeting, Electron Microscopy Society of America ◽

10.1017/s0424820100157838 ◽

1990 ◽

Vol 48 (3) ◽

pp. 58-59

Author(s):

Daryl A. Cornish ◽

George L. Smit

Keyword(s):

Morphological Characteristics ◽

Oreochromis Mossambicus ◽

Breeding Cycle ◽

Limited Information ◽

North West ◽

The North ◽

Sem And Tem ◽

Sperm Development ◽

Ultrastructural Characteristics ◽

The University

Oreochromis mossambicus is currently receiving much attention as a candidater species for aquaculture programs within Southern Africa. This has stimulated interest in its breeding cycle as well as the morphological characteristics of the gonads. Limited information is available on SEM and TEM observations of the male gonads. It is known that the testis of O. mossambicus is a paired, intra-abdominal structure of the lobular type, although further details of its characteristics are not known. Current investigations have shown that spermatids reach full maturity some two months after the female becomes gravid. Throughout the year, the testes contain spermatids at various stages of development although spermiogenesis appears to be maximal during November when spawning occurs. This paper describes the morphological and ultrastructural characteristics of the testes and spermatids.Specimens of this fish were collected at Syferkuil Dam, 8 km north- west of the University of the North over a twelve month period, sacrificed and the testes excised.

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