scholarly journals REACT-1 round 15 final report: Increased breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections among adults who had received two doses of vaccine, but booster doses and first doses in children are providing important protection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Chadeau-Hyam ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
Barbara Bodinier ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
David Haw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccine Effectiveness ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Final Report ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Weighted Prevalence

Background: It has been nearly a year since the first vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 were delivered in England. The third wave of COVID-19 in England began in May 2021 as the Delta variant began to outcompete and largely replace other strains. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) series of community surveys for SARS-CoV-2 infection has provided insights into transmission dynamics since May 2020. Round 15 of the REACT-1 study was carried out from 19 October to 5 November 2021. Methods: We estimated prevalence of SARS-CoV2 infection and used multiple logistic regression to analyse associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection in England and demographic and other risk factors, based on RT-PCR results from self-administered throat and nose swabs in over 100,000 participants. We estimated (single-dose) vaccine effectiveness among children aged 12 to 17 years, and among adults compared swab-positivity in people who had received a third (booster) dose with those who had received two vaccine doses. We used splines to analyse time trends in swab-positivity. Results: During mid-October to early-November 2021, weighted prevalence was 1.57% (1.48%, 1.66%) compared to 0.83% (0.76%, 0.89%) in September 2021 (round 14). Weighted prevalence increased between rounds 14 and 15 across most age groups (including older ages, 65 years and over) and regions, with average reproduction number across rounds of R=1.09 (1.08, 1.11). During round 15, there was a fall in prevalence from a maximum around 20-21 October, with an R of 0.76 (0.70, 0.83), reflecting falls in prevalence at ages 17 years and below and 18 to 54 years. School-aged children had the highest weighted prevalence of infection: 4.95% (4.39%, 5.58%) in those aged 5 to 12 years and 5.21% (4.61%, 5.87%) in those aged 13 to 17 years. In multiple logistic regression, age, sex, key worker status and presence of one or more children in the home were associated with swab positivity. There was evidence of heterogeneity between rounds in swab positivity rates among vaccinated individuals at ages 18 to 64 years, and differences in key demographic and other variables between vaccinated and unvaccinated adults at these ages. Vaccine effectiveness against infection in children was estimated to be 56.2% (41.3%, 67.4%) in rounds 13, 14 and 15 combined, adjusted for demographic factors, with a similar estimate obtained for round 15 only. Among adults we found that those who received a third dose of vaccine were less likely to test positive compared to those who received only two vaccine doses, with adjusted odds ratio (OR) =0.38 (0.26, 0.55). Discussion: Swab-positivity was very high at the start of round 15, reaching a maximum around 20 to 21 October 2021, and then falling through late October with an uncertain trend in the last few days of data collection. The observational nature of survey data and the relatively small proportion of unvaccinated adults call into question the comparability of vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at this relatively late stage in the vaccination programme. However, third vaccine doses for eligible adults and the vaccination of children aged 12 years and over are associated with lower infection risk and, thus, remain a high priority (with possible extension to children aged 5-12 years). These should help reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the winter period when healthcare demands typically rise.

scholarly journals Investigation of the Leading Causes of Injury and Violence in South-East Iran

2021 ◽  
pp. 117-125
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Forensic Medicine ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Urban Setting ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Unintentional Injuries ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Road Traffic Crashes ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression Modeling

Introduction: Injuries and violence are significant causes of death and health problems in all countries; however, they are not equally distributed across the world or within countries. Injuries result from road traffic crashes, falls, drowning, burns, poisoning, and acts of violence against oneself or others, among other causes. The present study aimed to describe the causes, their characteristics, frequencies, types, and outcomes of the injuries reported to the Forensic Medicine Center, Zahedan, Iran. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in the Forensic Medicine Center, Zahedan, South-East Iran. A total of 1400 intentional and unintentional injuries were systematically extracted from the administrative records between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2018. The data were analyzed using the Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression models. Furthermore, the Stata statistical software (version 14; StataCorp, USA) was used for all analyses. Results: In this study, three major causes of injuries included accident, fight, and burn in the order of priority. The overall frequencies of intentional and unintentional injuries among the subjects were 40.3% and 59.7%, respectively. Moreover, death occurred in 45.6% of the cases. Here, the odds of death in unintentional injuries were more than those in intentional ones (P<0.001). Multiple logistic regression modeling showed that increasing age (P=0.001), education level (P<0.001), holiday time (P=0.02), and urban setting (P=0.02) for injury were associated with increased odds of intentional injuries. Conclusion: According to the results, younger age groups were more likely to be injured, compared to other categories. Therefore, it is necessary to implement any planning and prioritization for the reduction of family injuries and violence in school education by instructing this age group regarding injuries and their health risk consequences. Decision-makers should focus their attention on the issue locally. The implications of this study could be highly influential to identify intervention opportunities and determine local and cultural problematic health issues.

scholarly journals In-person schooling and COVID-19 transmission in Canada's three largest cities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simona Bignami ◽  
Yacine Boujija ◽  
David Fisman ◽  
John Sandberg
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Immunization Coverage ◽  
The Novel ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Heated Debate ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Observation Period

In North America and Europe, the Fall 2020 school term has coincided with the beginning of the second wave of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, sparking a heated debate about the role of in-person schooling for community transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This issue has immediate policy relevance for deciding how to operate schools safely as the pandemic unfolds, new variants of SARS-CoV-2 are circulating, and immunization coverage remains low. We contribute to this debate by presenting data on trends in COVID-19 weekly incidence among school-aged children 0-19 years old vis-a-vis other age groups during Fall 2020 in Canada's three largest cities: Montreal, Toronto and Calgary. We interpret these trends in light of the different back-to-school policies and other public health measures implemented in the three cities over the observation period.

scholarly journals REACT-1 round 10 report: Level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in England during third national lockdown in March 2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Riley ◽  
Oliver Eales ◽  
David Haw ◽  
Caroline E. Walters ◽  
Haowei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Third Wave ◽  
Close Approximation ◽  
North West ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
The North ◽  
East Midlands ◽  
Routine Surveillance ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
National Prevalence ◽  
Roll Out

AbstractBackgroundIn England, hospitalisations and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 have been falling consistently since January 2021 during the third national lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic. The first significant relaxation of that lockdown occurred on 8 March when schools reopened.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study augments routine surveillance data for England by measuring swab-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 in the community. The current round, round 10, collected swabs from 11 to 30 March 2021 and is compared here to round 9, in which swabs were collected from 4 to 23 February 2021.ResultsDuring round 10, we estimated an R number of 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.81, 1.21). Between rounds 9 and 10 we estimated national prevalence has dropped by ∼60% from 0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%) in February to 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%) in March. There were substantial falls in weighted regional prevalence: in South East from 0.36% (0.29%, 0.44%) in round 9 to 0.07% (0.04%, 0.12%) in round 10; London from 0.60% (0.48%, 0.76%) to 0.16% (0.10%, 0.26%); East of England from 0.47% (0.36%, 0.60%) to 0.15% (0.10%, 0.24%); East Midlands from 0.59% (0.45%, 0.77%) to 0.19% (0.13%, 0.28%); and North West from 0.69% (0.54%, 0.88%) to 0.31% (0.21%, 0.45%). Areas of apparent higher prevalence remain in parts of the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber. The highest prevalence in March was found among school-aged children 5 to 12 years at 0.41% (0.27%, 0.62%), compared with the lowest in those aged 65 to 74 and 75 and over at 0.09% (0.05%, 0.16%). The close approximation between prevalence of infections and deaths (suitably lagged) is diverging, suggesting that infections may have resulted in fewer hospitalisations and deaths since the start of widespread vaccination.ConclusionWe report a sharp decline in prevalence of infections between February and March 2021. We did not observe an increase in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 following the reopening of schools in England, although the decline of prevalence appears to have stopped. Future rounds of REACT-1 will be able to measure the rate of growth or decline from this current plateau and hence help assess the effectiveness of the vaccination roll-out on transmission of the virus as well as the potential size of any third wave during the ensuing months.

scholarly journals Optimization of Game Formats in U-10 Soccer Using Logistic Regression Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Amatria ◽  
Daniel Lapresa ◽  
Javier Arana ◽  
M. Teresa Anguera ◽  
Belén Garzón
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Learning Needs ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Game Format ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Simple Logistic

AbstractSmall-sided games provide young soccer players with better opportunities to develop their skills and progress as individual and team players. There is, however, little evidence on the effectiveness of different game formats in different age groups, and furthermore, these formats can vary between and even within countries. The Royal Spanish Soccer Association replaced the traditional grassroots 7-a-side format (F-7) with the 8-a-side format (F-8) in the 2011-12 season and the country’s regional federations gradually followed suit. The aim of this observational methodology study was to investigate which of these formats best suited the learning needs of U-10 players transitioning from 5-aside futsal. We built a multiple logistic regression model to predict the success of offensive moves depending on the game format and the area of the pitch in which the move was initiated. Success was defined as a shot at the goal. We also built two simple logistic regression models to evaluate how the game format influenced the acquisition of technicaltactical skills. It was found that the probability of a shot at the goal was higher in F-7 than in F-8 for moves initiated in the Creation Sector-Own Half (0.08 vs 0.07) and the Creation Sector-Opponent's Half (0.18 vs 0.16). The probability was the same (0.04) in the Safety Sector. Children also had more opportunities to control the ball and pass or take a shot in the F-7 format (0.24 vs 0.20), and these were also more likely to be successful in this format (0.28 vs 0.19).

Determining the Most Valuable Clinical Variables : a Stepwise Multiple Logistic Regression Program

1980 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
pp. 42-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. W. Brown ◽  
C. Engelhard ◽  
J. Haipern ◽  
J. F. Fries ◽  
L. S. Coles
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Predictor Variable ◽  
Clinical Problem ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Stepwise Logistic Regression ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Binary Outcome ◽  
Medical Problems ◽  
Valuable Predictor ◽  
Data Banks

In solving a clinical problem of diagnosis, prognosis, or treatment choice, a physician must select from among a large group of possible tests. In general, an ordering exists specifying which tests are most valuable in providing relevant information concerning the problem on hand. The computer program package to be described (MW) extracts appropriate data from the ARAMIS data banks and then analyzes the data by stepwise logistic regression. A binary outcome (diagnosis, prognostic event, or treatment response) is sequentially associated with possible tests, and the most powerful combination of tests is identified. For example, the most valuable predictor variable of early mortality in SLE is proteinuria, followed sequentially by anemia and absence of arthritis. Experience with these techniques suggests : 1. optimal certainty is usually reached after only three or four tests; 2. several different test sequences may lead to the same level of certainty; 3. diagnosis may usually be ascertained with greater certainty than prognosis; 4. many medical problems contain considerable non-reducible uncertainty; 5. a relatively small group of tests are typically found among the most powerful; 6. results are consistent across several patient populations; 7. results are largely independent of the particular statistic employed. These observations suggest strategies for maximizing information while minimizing risk and expense.

Experimental study on the factors affecting squeak noise occurrence in automotive suspension bushings

2021 ◽  
pp. 095440702110241
Author(s):  
Byunghyun Kang ◽  
Cheol Choi ◽  
Daeun Sung ◽  
Seongho Yoon ◽  
Byoung-Ho Choi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Frictional Force ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Automotive Suspension

In this study, friction tests are performed, via a custom-built friction tester, on specimens of natural rubber used in automotive suspension bushings. By analyzing the problematic suspension bushings, the eleven candidate factors that influence squeak noise are selected: surface lubrication, hardness, vulcanization condition, surface texture, additive content, sample thickness, thermal aging, temperature, surface moisture, friction speed, and normal force. Through friction tests, the changes are investigated in frictional force and squeak noise occurrence according to various levels of the influencing factors. The degree of correlation between frictional force and squeak noise occurrence with the factors is determined through statistical tests, and the relationship between frictional force and squeak noise occurrence based on the test results is discussed. Squeak noise prediction models are constructed by considering the interactions among the influencing factors through both multiple logistic regression and neural network analysis. The accuracies of the two prediction models are evaluated by comparing predicted and measured results. The accuracies of the multiple logistic regression and neural network models in predicting the occurrence of squeak noise are 88.2% and 87.2%, respectively.

scholarly journals Blood pressure and resting heart rate in 3-17-year-olds in Germany in 2003–2006 and 2014–2017

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giselle Sarganas ◽  
Anja Schienkiewitz ◽  
Jonas D. Finger ◽  
Hannelore K. Neuhauser
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Selection Rule ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Resting Heart Rate ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
National Examination ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
Analysis Measurement

AbstractTo track blood pressure (BP) and resting heart rate (RHR) in children and adolescents is important due to its associations with cardiovascular outcomes in the adulthood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine BP and RHR over a decade among children and adolescents living in Germany using national examination data. Cross-sectional data from 3- to 17-year-old national survey participants (KiGGS 2003–06, n = 14,701; KiGGS 2014–17, n = 3509) including standardized oscillometric BP and RHR were used for age- and sex-standardized analysis. Measurement protocols were identical with the exception of the cuff selection rule, which was accounted for in the analyses. Different BP and RHR trends were observed according to age-groups. In 3- to 6-year-olds adjusted mean SBP and DBP were significantly higher in 2014–2017 compared to 2003–2006 (+2.4 and +1.9 mm Hg, respectively), while RHR was statistically significantly lower by −3.8 bpm. No significant changes in BP or in RHR were observed in 7- to 10-year-olds over time. In 11- to 13-year-olds as well as in 14- to 17-year-olds lower BP has been observed (SBP −2.4 and −3.2 mm Hg, respectively, and DBP −1.8 and −1.7 mm Hg), while RHR was significantly higher (+2.7 and +3.7 bpm). BP trends did not parallel RHR trends. The downward BP trend in adolescents seemed to follow decreasing adult BP trends in middle and high-income countries. The increase in BP in younger children needs confirmation from other studies as well as further investigation. In school-aged children and adolescents, the increased RHR trend may indicate decreased physical fitness.

Association between Procalcitonin and Acute Kidney Injury in Patients with Bacterial Septic Shock

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Guang Fu ◽  
Hai-chao Zhan ◽  
Hao-li Li ◽  
Jun-fu Lu ◽  
Yan-hong Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Septic Shock ◽  
Acute Kidney Injury ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Multiple Logistic Regression ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Female Patients ◽  
Potential Biomarker ◽  
The Relationship

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between serum procalcitonin (PCT) and acute kidney injury (AKI) induced by bacterial septic shock. Methods: A retrospective study was designed which included patients who were admitted to the ICU from January 2015 to October 2018. Multiple logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) as well as smooth curve fitting analysis were used to assess the relationship between the PCT level and AKI. Results: Of the 1,631 patients screened, 157 patients were included in the primary analysis in which 84 (53.5%) patients were with AKI. Multiple logistic regression results showed that PCT (odds ratio [OR] = 1.017, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.009–1.025, p < 0.001) was associated with AKI induced by septic shock. The ROC analysis showed that the cutoff point for PCT to predict AKI development was 14 ng/mL, with a sensitivity of 63% and specificity 67%. Specifically, in multivariate piecewise linear regression, the occurrence of AKI decreased with the elevation of PCT when PCT was between 25 ng/mL and 120 ng/mL (OR 0.963, 95% CI 0.929–0.999; p = 0.042). The AKI increased with the elevation of PCT when PCT was either <25 ng/mL (OR 1.077, 95% CI 1.022–1.136; p = 0.006) or >120 ng/mL (OR 1.042, 95% CI 1.009–1.076; p = 0.013). Moreover, the PCT level was significantly higher in the AKI group only in female patients aged ≤75 years (p = 0.001). Conclusions: Our data revealed a nonlinear relationship between PCT and AKI in septic shock patients, and PCT could be used as a potential biomarker of AKI in female patients younger than 75 years with bacterial septic shock.

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