scholarly journals The impact of changing smoking habits and smoke-free legislation on orofacial cleft incidence in the United Kingdom: evidence from two time-series studies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew John Fell ◽  
Craig Russell ◽  
Jibby Medina ◽  
Toby Gillgrass ◽  
Shaheel Chummun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Cleft Lip ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Orofacial Cleft ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

Objectives: To analyse the association between active and passive cigarette smoking and the incidence of children born with a cleft lip and/or palate within the United Kingdom. Design: First, a longitudinal time-series study was conducted with routinely collected smoking prevalence data for females over 16 years of age. Second, an interrupted time-series design was used as a natural experiment to assess the impact of smoke-free legislation using segmented Poisson regression. Setting: United Kingdom. Population: All children born between 2000 and 2018 and their mothers. Main outcome measures: Orofacial cleft incidence, reported annually for England, Wales and Northern Ireland and separately for Scotland. Results: Over the study period, the annual incidence of orofacial cleft per 10,000 live births ranged from 14.2-16.2 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 13.4-18.8 in Scotland. The proportion of active smokers amongst females in the United Kingdom declined by 37% during the study period. Adjusted regression analysis did not show a correlation between the proportion of active smokers and orofacial cleft incidence in either dataset, although we were unable to exclude a modest effect of the magnitude seen in individual-level observational studies. The data in England, Wales and Northern Ireland suggested an 8% reduction in orofacial cleft incidence (95%CI 1% to 14%; P=0.026) following the implementation of smoke-free legislation. In Scotland, there was weak evidence for an increase in orofacial cleft incidence following smoke-free legislation. Conclusion: These two ecological studies offer a novel insight into the influence of smoking in orofacial cleft aetiology, adding to the evidence base from individual-level studies. Our results suggest that smoke-free legislation may have reduced orofacial cleft incidence in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

scholarly journals The impact of changing cigarette smoking habits and smoke-free legislation on orofacial cleft incidence in the United Kingdom: Evidence from two time-series studies

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259820
Author(s):  
Matthew Fell ◽  
Craig Russell ◽  
Jibby Medina ◽  
Toby Gillgrass ◽  
Shaheel Chummun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Cigarette Smoking ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Orofacial Cleft ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

Background Both active and passive cigarette smoking have previously been associated with orofacial cleft aetiology. We aimed to analyse the impact of declining active smoking prevalence and the implementation of smoke-free legislation on the incidence of children born with a cleft lip and/or palate within the United Kingdom. Methods and findings We conducted regression analysis using national administrative data in the United Kingdom between 2000–2018. The main outcome measure was orofacial cleft incidence, reported annually for England, Wales and Northern Ireland and separately for Scotland. First, we conducted an ecological study with longitudinal time-series analysis using smoking prevalence data for females over 16 years of age. Second, we used a natural experiment design with interrupted time-series analysis to assess the impact of smoke-free legislation. Over the study period, the annual incidence of orofacial cleft per 10,000 live births ranged from 14.2–16.2 in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and 13.4–18.8 in Scotland. The proportion of active smokers amongst females in the United Kingdom declined by 37% during the study period. Adjusted regression analysis did not show a correlation between the proportion of active smokers and orofacial cleft incidence in either dataset, although we were unable to exclude a modest effect of the magnitude seen in individual-level observational studies. The data in England, Wales and Northern Ireland suggested an 8% reduction in orofacial cleft incidence (RR 0.92, 95%CI 0.85 to 0.99; P = 0.024) following the implementation of smoke-free legislation. In Scotland, there was weak evidence for an increase in orofacial cleft incidence following smoke-free legislation (RR 1.16, 95%CI 0.94 to 1.44; P = 0.173). Conclusions These two ecological studies offer a novel insight into the influence of smoking in orofacial cleft aetiology, adding to the evidence base from individual-level studies. Our results suggest that smoke-free legislation may have reduced orofacial cleft incidence in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

scholarly journals Summarizing Patient Preferences for the Competitive Landscape of Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Options

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcel F. Jonker ◽  
Bas Donkers ◽  
Lucas M.A. Goossens ◽  
Renske J. Hoefman ◽  
Lea J. Jabbarian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Patient Preferences ◽  
Treatment Options ◽  
Mixed Logit ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Choice Data ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Impact

Objective. Quantitatively summarize patient preferences for European licensed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) disease-modifying treatment (DMT) options. Methods. To identify and summarize the most important RRMS DMT characteristics, a literature review, exploratory physician interviews, patient focus groups, and confirmatory physician interviews were conducted in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was developed and executed to measure patient preferences for the most important DMT characteristics. The resulting DCE data ( n=799 and n=363 respondents in the United Kingdom and Germany, respectively) were analyzed using Bayesian mixed logit models. The estimated individual-level patient preferences were subsequently summarized using 3 additional analyses: the quality of the choice data was assessed using individual-level R2 estimates, individual-level preferences for the available DMTs were aggregated into DMT-specific preference shares, and a principal component analysis was performed to explain the patients’ choice process. Results. DMT usage differed between RRMS patients in Germany and the United Kingdom but aggregate patient preferences were similar. Across countries, 42% of all patients preferred oral medications, 38% infusions, 16% injections, and 4% no DMT. The most often preferred DMT was natalizumab (26%) and oral DMT cladribine tablets (22%). The least often preferred were mitoxantrone and the beta-interferon injections (1%–3%). Patient preferences were strongly correlated with patients’ MS disease duration and DMT experience, and differences in patient preferences could be summarized using 8 principle components that together explain 99% of the variation in patients’ DMT preferences. Conclusion. This study summarizes patient preferences for the included DMTs, facilitates shared decision making along the dimensions that are relevant to RRMS patients, and introduces methods in the medical DCE literature that are ideally suited to summarize the impact of DMT introductions in preexisting treatment landscapes.

scholarly journals Transnationalism and Development: The Impact of Remittances to Timor-Leste

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Brigida Brites Soares
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Main Question ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Timor Leste ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

<p>The aim of this thesis is to Explorer the impact of remittances, sent from Timorese workers in the United Kingdom of Great Britain, Northern Ireland, South Korea and Australia, on the Development of Timor-Leste.  The research in this study is from three different perspectives. Firstly, the migration processes and the remittance service providers, which are involved in managing the transfer of remittances from Timorese workers overseas to their families at home. Secondly, the remittance is used by recipient familieson the consumption (durable and non durable goods). Finally, the remittance is used on human capital invest-ment and business investment. From these three perspectives, this thesis examines how remittances con tribute to the development of Timor-Leste. Using a qualitative method, the study addresses one main question: What is the impact of remittances to Timor-Leste?  The study was underpinned by qualitative research conducted in Timor-Leste, which has a total popula-tion of 1.1 million. I administered the field research in 7 locations to 30 participants. These included 10 remittance receiving households in the urban district of Dili and 10 from the rural areas of Baucau, Lospa-los, Viqueque, Ainaro, Covalima and Oecusse. Another 10 interviewees were migrant workers domiciled in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, South Korea and Australia. The interviews also conducted with relevant Government institutions regarding the process of emigration to work in United Kingdom of Great Britain, Northern Ireland, South Korea and Australia. Also, bank and non-bank institusions as the channel used to transfers remittances from the host countries of the migrants to their families at home.  In adopting a combination of theoretical approaches, especially the New Economy of Labour Migration, I argue that remittances have a positive contribution to the development of household participants‟ welfare, the development of human capital and they enable remitters and their families in Timor-Leste to start small and medium businesses. The study also found that the ultimate use of remittances is variously in-vested in productive and unproductive sectors. I further argue that the positive impact of remittances on peoples‟ lives significantly increases the numbers of overseas migrants, which attracts a greater flow of remittances into the country and that urgent government policies are needed to facilitate these more easily.</p>

THE IMPACT OF BREXIT ON BRITISH-EUROPEAN RELATIONS

Moldoscopie ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 34-42
Author(s):  
Svetlana Cebotari ◽  
◽  
Carolina Budurina-Goreacii ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
European Community ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Security ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Overseas Territories ◽  
The Impact

The exit of Great Britain from the European Union, “Brexit”, respectively “British exit”, has become one of the most important processes that trouble and concern the European world and not only. The impact of Brexit on British-European relations is considerable. Withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Community. were argued by a series of arguments that can be grouped according to three major considerations: economic, political and security. Analyzing Brexit, it can be seen that the separation of the United Kingdom from the European Union is a phenomenon that can only bring disadvantages to both parties, as well as European security. Regarding the security of the two entities, Brexit is considered as a risk, but also an opportunity for Great Britain, as well as for the states of the European Union. This article aims to highlight the main consequences of Brexit on British-European relations, including the British Overseas Territories.

Environmental Pollution, Income Inequality, and Household Energy Consumption: Evidence from the United Kingdom

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (02) ◽  
pp. 1950008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Household Energy ◽  
Household Energy Consumption ◽  
Household Level ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study explored the impact of income inequality, household energy consumption, government expenditure, and investment on carbon dioxide emissions at the household level over the period 1970–2015 in the United Kingdom. The study applied Clemente–Montanes–Reyes unit root test to identify structural break in the time series. Further, the cointegrating relationship of the time series observations was explored by applying the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) (linear) bounds test approach along with the nonlinear ARDL for making fruitful comparisons in the long-run relationship among the variables. The paper used Bayer–Hanck combined cointegration method for robustness test in the cointegrating methods. In addition, the causality analysis was explored using the Toda–Yamato (1995) method of Granger causality. The results confirmed the existence of cointegration among the variables.The estimated NARDL results show that in the long run the negative asymmetric impact of the income inequality is stronger than the positive impact. The paper concludes that there is an urgent need to reduce income inequality in the United Kingdom to improve equitable consumption of energy at the household level. Last the causality test shows that there exists unidirectional causality from inequality transmission to carbon emissions.

Decentralisation and Devolution in the United Kingdom

2016 ◽  
pp. 1-34
Author(s):  
Chris Game
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Local Government ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Government Functions ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Working Out

The key to the core of this chapter is in its title. Constitutionally, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) is still a unitary state comprising three countries – England, Scotland, Wales – plus the province of Northern Ireland. Since 1998, though, the last three have had their own elected parliaments or assemblies and devolved governments, whose responsibilities naturally include most local government functions and operations. It is arguable, therefore, that in practice nowadays the UK is quasi-federal. England, with 84% of the UK population, doesn't have a separate parliament, but is gradually working out its own form of devolution. The chapter describes all these developments, but its detail is largely reserved for the structure and workings of local government in England – elections and elected councillors, services and functions, and its currently rapidly changing finances – and the impact, particularly on councils' financial and policy discretion, of its having, in population terms, by far the largest scale of local government in Western Europe.

scholarly journals Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland

Crime Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Buil-Gil ◽  
Yongyu Zeng ◽  
Steven Kemp
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Property Crime ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Series Analysis

AbstractMuch research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

scholarly journals Influence of the SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak on the Uptake of a Popular Smoking Cessation App in UK Smokers: Interrupted Time Series Analysis

10.2196/19494 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. e19494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Perski ◽  
Aleksandra Herbeć ◽  
Lion Shahab ◽  
Jamie Brown
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Step Change ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Increasing Trend

Background The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak may motivate smokers to attempt to stop in greater numbers. However, given the temporary closure of UK stop smoking services and vape shops, smokers attempting to quit may instead seek out mobile health support, such as smartphone apps. Objective We examined, using an interrupted time series approach, whether the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a step change or increasing trend in UK downloads of an otherwise popular smoking cessation app, Smoke Free. Methods Data were from daily and nondaily adult smokers in the United Kingdom who had downloaded the Smoke Free app between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2020 (primary analysis), and January 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020 (secondary analysis). The outcome variable was the number of downloads aggregated at the 12-hourly (primary analysis) or daily level (secondary analysis). The explanatory variable was the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, operationalized as March 1, 2020 (primary analysis), and January 15, 2020 (secondary analysis). Generalized additive mixed models adjusted for relevant covariates were fitted. Results Data were collected on 45,105 (primary analysis) and 119,881 (secondary analysis) users. In both analyses, there was no evidence for a step change or increasing trend in downloads attributable to the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. Calculation of Bayes factors (BFs) indicated that the data for the primary analysis favored the null hypothesis compared with large associations (for level, BF=0.25; for slope, BF=0.26) but were insensitive to the detection of small associations (for level, BF=0.78; for slope, BF=1.35). Conclusions In the United Kingdom, between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2020, and between January 1, 2019, and March 31, 2020, there was no evidence that the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been associated with a large step change or increasing trend in downloads of a popular smoking cessation app. Findings on the association of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak with a small step change or increasing trend were inconclusive.

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