Solving the "right" problems for effective machine learning driven in vitro fertilization
Automated live embryo imaging has transformed in-vitro fertilization (IVF) into a data-intensive field. Unlike clinicians who rank embryos from the same IVF cycle cohort based on the embryos visual quality and determine how many embryos to transfer based on clinical factors, machine learning solutions usually combine these steps by optimizing for implantation prediction and using the same model for ranking the embryos within a cohort. Here we establish that this strategy can lead to sub-optimal selection of embryos. We reveal that despite enhancing implantation prediction, inclusion of clinical properties hampers ranking. Moreover, we find that ambiguous labels of failed implantations, due to either low quality embryos or poor clinical factors, confound both the optimal ranking and even implantation prediction. To overcome these limitations, we propose conceptual and practical steps to enhance machine-learning driven IVF solutions. These consist of separating the optimizing of implantation from ranking by focusing on visual properties for ranking, and reducing label ambiguity.