scholarly journals Estimating COVID-19 Hospitalizations in the United States with surveillance data using a Bayesian Hierarchical model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Couture ◽  
Danielle Iuliano ◽  
Howard H Chang ◽  
Neha N Patel ◽  
Matthew Gilmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Covariate Selection ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

Introduction: In the United States, COVID-19 is a nationally notifiable disease, cases and hospitalizations are reported to the CDC by states. Identifying and reporting every case from every facility in the United States may not be feasible in the long term. Creating sustainable methods for estimating burden of COVID-19 from established sentinel surveillance systems is becoming more important. We aimed to provide a method leveraging surveillance data to create a long-term solution to estimate monthly rates of hospitalizations for COVID-19. Methods: We estimated monthly hospitalization rates for COVID-19 from May 2020 through April 2021 for the 50 states using surveillance data from COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) and a Bayesian hierarchical model for extrapolation. We created a model for six age groups (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, 65-74, 75-84, and ≥85 years), separately. We identified covariates from multiple data sources that varied by age, state, and/or month, and performed covariate selection for each age group based on two methods, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Spike and Slab selection methods. We validated our method by checking sensitivity of model estimates to covariate selection and model extrapolation as well as comparing our results to external data. Results: We estimated 3,569,500 (90% Credible Interval:3,238,000 - 3,934,700) hospitalizations for a cumulative incidence of 1,089.8 (988.6 - 1,201.3) hospitalizations per 100,000 population with COVID-19 in the United States from May 2020 through April 2021. Cumulative incidence varied from 352 - 1,821per 100,000 between states. The age group with the highest cumulative incidence was aged greater than or equal to 85 years (5,583.1; 5,061.0 - 6,157.5). The monthly hospitalization rate was highest in December (183.8; 154.5 - 218.0). Our monthly estimates by state showed variations in magnitudes of peak rates, number of peaks and timing of peaks between states. Conclusions: Our novel approach to estimate COVID-19 hospitalizations has potential to provide sustainable estimates for monitoring COVID-19 burden, as well as a flexible framework leveraging surveillance data.

DIPHTHERIA IN THE UNITED STATES, 1959-1960

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1962 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-205
Author(s):  
Theodore C. Doege ◽  
Clark W. Heath ◽  
Ida L. Sherman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Past ◽  
Primary Series ◽  
Long Term Trend

Diphtheria attack rates and cases, and to a much lesser extent case-fatality rates, have fallen steadily within the United States during the past 25 years. However, during 1959 and 1960 there was a halt in this long-term trend. Epidemiologic data on 868 clinical cases of diphtheria occurring in 1959 and 873 cases in 1960 were submitted to the Communicable Disease Center by 45 states. The cases and several major outbreaks tended to concentrate in the southern and southwestern states. Attack rates and deaths were highest for children under 10 years, and attack rates were more than five times greater for nonwhite children. Analysis of 1960 immunization data shows that 72% of the patients had received no immunizations. Fifty-five per cent of carriers, but only 18% of persons with bacteriologically confirmed cases, had received a primary series. Only 1 person of 58 fatal cases occurring in 1960 had received a primary series. Certain problems for future investigation, disclosed by the surveillance data, are discussed.

International competitiveness of the Canadian construction industry: a comparison with Japan and the United States

1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 640-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kiran Momaya ◽  
Kenneth Selby
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Strategic Management ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
International Competitiveness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Industry Performance ◽  
Different Dimensions

Competitiveness can be a useful indicator of the long-term health of an industry. Whereas competitiveness has been studied at the corporate and national levels, its usefulness at the industry level has not been explored. The research objective is to develop a model to evaluate competitiveness at the industry level. Motivated by persistent problems of the Canadian construction industry, an attempt is made to quantify its international competitiveness. The industry is compared with its counterparts in Japan and the United States. Competitiveness is defined, the different dimensions of competitiveness are illustrated, and the need to quantify competitiveness is discussed. A multicriteria hierarchical model was developed and tested using both statistical and survey data. Salient findings of the research and conclusions are presented.Key words: international competitiveness, industry performance, strategic management, Canadian construction industry, Canada, Japan, United States.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for the estimation of two incomplete surveillance data sets

2008 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 3269-3285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Buenconsejo ◽  
Durland Fish ◽  
James E. Childs ◽  
Theodore R. Holford
Keyword(s):  
Hierarchical Model ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical Model ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical

scholarly journals Benchmarking COVID-19 Mortality in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruth Etzioni ◽  
Elan Markowitz ◽  
Ivor S. Douglas
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
The United States ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
The Us ◽  
Hispanic Populations ◽  
Racial Ethnic

AbstractOn September 22nd the US officially recorded 200,000 COVID-19 deaths. It is unclear how many deaths might have been expected in the case of an early and effective response to the pandemic. We aim to provide a best-case estimate of COVID-19 deaths in the US by September 22nd using the experience of Germany as a benchmark. Our methods accommodate the differences in demographics between Germany and the US. We match cumulative incidence of COVID-19 deaths by age group in Germany to non-Hispanic whites in the US and project the implied number of deaths in this population and among the black and Hispanic populations under observed racial/ethnic disparities in cumulative COVID-19 mortality in the US. We estimate that if the US had been as successful as Germany in managing the pandemic we would have expected 22% of the deaths actually recorded. The number of deaths would have been lower by a further one-third if we could have eliminated racial/ethnic disparites in COVID-19 outcomes. We conclude that almost 80 percent of the COVID-19 deaths in the US by September 22nd could have been avoided with an early and effective response producing similar age-specific death rates among non-Hispanic whites as in Germany.

Tuberculosis in Long-Term–Care Facilities

2000 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 611-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip W. Smith ◽  
Shobita Rajagopalan ◽  
Thomas T. Yoshikawa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Long Term Care ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
The United States ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Term Care

AbstractThe geriatric population represents the largest reservoir ofMycobacterium tuberculosisinfection in developed nations, including the United States. Tuberculosis (TB) case rates in the United States are highest for this age group compared with other age categories. The subtle clinical manifestations of TB in the elderly often can pose potential diagnostic dilemmas and therapeutic challenges, resulting in increased morbidity and mortality in this age group; this treatable infection unfortunately often is detected only at autopsy. Compared with their community-dwelling counterparts, the institutionalized elderly are at a greater risk both for reactivation of latent TB and for the acquisition of new TB infection. Prevention and control of TB in facilities providing long-term care to the elderly thus cannot be overemphasized.

scholarly journals Estimating Prevalent Diagnoses and Rates of New Diagnoses of HIV at the State Level by Age Group Among Men who Have Sex With Men in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeb Jones ◽  
Jeremy A Grey ◽  
David W Purcell ◽  
Kyle T Bernstein ◽  
Patrick S Sullivan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Population Size Estimates ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
New Diagnosis

Abstract Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States experience a disproportionate rate of diagnosis of HIV. Surveillance data demonstrate age-based disparities among MSM, with higher rates of diagnosis among MSM age ≤34 years nationally. Population size estimates within age group at the state level have not been available to determine rates for each state. We estimated the size of the MSM population in 5 age groups in each state and estimated the rate of prevalent HIV diagnoses in 2013 and new HIV diagnoses in 2014. Methods We used data from the General Social Survey, American Community Survey, and previously published estimates from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to estimate the population of MSM in 5 age groups at the state level. We combined these estimates with surveillance data to estimate age-stratified rates of prevalent diagnoses in 2013 and new diagnoses in 2014 in each state. We estimated standardized prevalence and diagnosis ratios comparing the Northeast, South, and West regions with the Midwest. Results Rates of prevalent diagnoses increased with increasing age, and rates of new diagnoses were highest among younger age groups. In the United States, the new diagnosis rate among those age 18–24 years in 2014 was 1.4 per 100 MSM without a diagnosis. The highest diagnosis rates were observed among men age ≤34 years in the South. Conclusions Age-stratified estimates of HIV prevalence and new diagnosis rates at the state level can inform public health prevention strategies and resource allocation.

Speech-Language Pathology in the Peace Corps: Necessity and Sustainability

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Melissa A. Pierce
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Special Education ◽  
Peace Corps ◽  
People With Disabilities ◽  
Communication Disorders ◽  
The United States ◽  
Speech Language Pathology ◽  
Speech Language Pathologists ◽  
Language Pathology

In countries other than the United States, the study and practice of speech-language pathology is little known or nonexistent. Recognition of professionals in the field is minimal. Speech-language pathologists in countries where speech-language pathology is a widely recognized and respected profession often seek to share their expertise in places where little support is available for individuals with communication disorders. The Peace Corps offers a unique, long-term volunteer opportunity to people with a variety of backgrounds, including speech-language pathologists. Though Peace Corps programs do not specifically focus on speech-language pathology, many are easily adapted to the profession because they support populations of people with disabilities. This article describes how the needs of local children with communication disorders are readily addressed by a Special Education Peace Corps volunteer.

Mafias on the Move

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Varese
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New York ◽  
Organized Crime ◽  
The United States ◽  
The West ◽  
Market Expansion ◽  
The North ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
At Will

Organized crime is spreading like a global virus as mobs take advantage of open borders to establish local franchises at will. That at least is the fear, inspired by stories of Russian mobsters in New York, Chinese triads in London, and Italian mafias throughout the West. As this book explains, the truth is more complicated. The author has spent years researching mafia groups in Italy, Russia, the United States, and China, and argues that mafiosi often find themselves abroad against their will, rather than through a strategic plan to colonize new territories. Once there, they do not always succeed in establishing themselves. The book spells out the conditions that lead to their long-term success, namely sudden market expansion that is neither exploited by local rivals nor blocked by authorities. Ultimately the inability of the state to govern economic transformations gives mafias their opportunity. In a series of matched comparisons, the book charts the attempts of the Calabrese 'Ndrangheta to move to the north of Italy, and shows how the Sicilian mafia expanded to early twentieth-century New York, but failed around the same time to find a niche in Argentina. The book explains why the Russian mafia failed to penetrate Rome but succeeded in Hungary. A pioneering chapter on China examines the challenges that triads from Taiwan and Hong Kong find in branching out to the mainland. This book is both a compelling read and a sober assessment of the risks posed by globalization and immigration for the spread of mafias.

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