Germany's current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Vaccines are the most powerful pharmaceutical tool to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. While the majority (about 65%) of the German population were fully vaccinated, incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. At the time, it (i) remains elusive how significant this contribution is and (ii) whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may stop the amplification of the ongoing crisis. Here, we estimate that about 67%-76% of all new infections are caused by unvaccinated individuals, implying that only 24%-33% are caused by the vaccinated. Furthermore, we estimate 38%-51% of new infections to be caused by unvaccinated individuals infecting other unvaccinated individuals. In total, unvaccinated individuals are expected to be involved in 8-9 of 10 new infections. We further show that decreasing the transmissibility of the unvaccinated by, e.g. targeted NPIs, causes a steeper decrease in the effective reproduction number R than decreasing the transmissibility of vaccinated individuals, potentially leading to temporary epidemic control. Furthermore, reducing contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals serves to decrease R in a similar manner as increasing vaccine uptake. Taken together, our results contribute to the public discourse regarding policy changes in pandemic response and highlight the importance of combined measures, such as vaccination campaigns and contact reduction, to achieve epidemic control and preventing an overload of public health

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Synergetic measures needed to control infection waves and contain SARS-CoV-2 transmission

10.1101/2021.11.24.21266824 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hang Su ◽

Yafang Cheng ◽

Ulrich Poeschl

Keyword(s):

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Scientific Discourse ◽

Protective Measure ◽

Protective Measures ◽

Vaccination Rates ◽

The Public ◽

Individual Measure ◽

The Impact ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

The public and scientific discourse on how to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic is often focused on the impact of individual protective measures, in particular on immunization by vaccination. In view of changing virus variants and conditions, however, it seems not clear if vaccination or any other single protective measure alone may suffice to contain the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we investigate the effectiveness and synergies of vaccination and different non-pharmaceutical interventions such as universal masking (surgical, N95/FFP2), distancing & ventilation, contact reduction, and testing & isolation as a function of compliance in the population. We find that it would be difficult to contain SARS-CoV-2 transmission by any individual measure as currently available under realistic conditions. Instead, we show how multiple synergetic measures can be and have to be combined to decrease and keep the effective reproduction number (Re) below unity, even for virus variants with increased basic reproduction number (R0). We suggest that the presented approach and results can be used to design and communicate efficient strategies for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, depending on R0 as well as the efficacy and compliance achieved with each protective measure. At vaccination rates around 70%, the combination and synergies of universal masking, distancing & ventilation, and testing & isolation with moderate compliances around 30% appear well suited to keep Re below 1 and prevent or suppress infection waves. Higher compliance or additional measures like contact reductions (confinement/lockdown) are required to effectively and swiftly break intense waves of infection. For schools, we find that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can be contained by 2-3 tests per week combined with distancing & ventilation and masking.

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A deterministic, age-stratified, extended SEIRD model for assessing the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 spread in Belgium

10.1101/2020.07.17.20156034 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Tijs W. Alleman ◽

Jenna Vergeynst ◽

Elena Torfs ◽

Daniel Illana Gonzalez ◽

Ingmar Nopens ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Basic Reproduction Number ◽

Reproduction Number ◽

Social Contact ◽

The Elderly ◽

Public Health Care ◽

Successful Implementation ◽

The Public ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽

The Basic Reproduction Number

As a response to the rapidly rising number of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the Belgian governments imposed strict social contact restrictions on March 13th, 2020. After nearly two months, the curve was successfully flattened and social restrictions were gradually relaxed. Unfortunately, pharmaceutical interventions are not yet available so it is expected that preventing COVID-19 outbreaks will depend mostly on the successful implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, hence the need for well-informed models. In this study, we built a deterministic, continuous-time, age-stratified-SEIRD model with detailed hospital dynamics. Because the hospitalization data for Belgium are not made publically available by the Belgian Scientific Institute of Public Health (Sciensano), we computed the hospitalization parameters based on data from 370 patients treated in two Ghent (Belgium) hospitals. The basic reproduction number was estimated as R0 = 2.83 in March 2020 and the model fits the hospitalization and ICU admission incidence under lockdown measures well. Despite the relaxation of social restrictions, hospitalizations have been steadily declining. We recomputed the basic reproduction number under lockdown release and found that it had to be as low as R0 = 0.73 to explain the endemic trend. We further found that although the basic reproduction number in the population older than 70 years was smaller than one, this group compromises nearly half of the expected hospitalizations. This indicates that the protection of the elderly may be the most efficient way to reduce strain on the public health care system in case of another SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.

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Accounting for underreporting in mathematical modelling of transmission and control of COVID-19 in Iran

10.1101/2020.05.02.20087270 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Meead Saberi ◽

Homayoun Hamedmoghadam ◽

Kaveh Madani ◽

Helen M. Dolk ◽

Andrei S. Morgan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Transmission Model ◽

School Closures ◽

The Public ◽

Case Fatality Ratio ◽

And Control ◽

The Impact ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

SUMMARYBackgroundIran has been the hardest hit country by the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in the Middle East with 74,877 confirmed cases and 4,683 deaths as of 15 April 2020. With a relatively high case fatality ratio and limited testing capacity, the number of confirmed cases reported is suspected to suffer from significant under-reporting. Therefore, understanding the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and assessing the effectiveness of the interventions that have taken place in Iran while accounting for the uncertain level of underreporting is of critical importance. We use a mathematical epidemic model utilizing official confirmed data and estimates of underreporting to understand how transmission in Iran has been changing between February and April 2020.MethodsWe developed a compartmental transmission model to estimate the effective reproduction number and its fluctuations since the beginning of the outbreak in Iran. We associate the variations in the effective reproduction number with a timeline of interventions and national events. The estimation method also accounts for the underreporting due to low case ascertainment by estimating the percentage of symptomatic cases using delay-adjusted case fatality ratio based on the distribution of the delay from hospitalization-to-death.FindingsOur estimates of the effective reproduction number ranged from 0.66 to 1.73 between February and April 2020, with a median of 1.16. We estimate a reduction in the effective reproduction number during this period, from 1.73 (95% CI 1.60 – 1.87) on 1 March 2020 to 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70) on 15 April 2020, due to various non-pharmaceutical interventions including school closures, a ban on public gatherings including sports and religious events, and full or partial closure of non-essential businesses. Based on these estimates and given that a near complete containment is no longer feasible, it is likely that the outbreak may continue until the end of the 2020 if the current level of physical distancing and interventions continue and no effective vaccination or therapeutic are developed and made widely available.InterpretationThe series of non-pharmaceutical interventions and the public compliance that took place in Iran are found to be effective in slowing down the speed of the spread of COVID-19 within the studied time period. However, we argue that if the impact of underreporting is overlooked, the estimated transmission and control dynamics could mislead the public health decisions, policy makers, and general public especially in the earlier stages of the outbreak.FundingNil.

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Discursive construction of an anti-immigration Europe by a Sweden Democrat in the European Parliament

MIGRATION LETTERS ◽

10.33182/ml.v16i3.632 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 (3) ◽

pp. 429-439

Author(s):

Kamber Güler

Keyword(s):

Critical Discourse Analysis ◽

Direct Democracy ◽

Public Discourse ◽

Social Power ◽

European Parliament ◽

Critical Discourse ◽

Discursive Construction ◽

Cognitive Approach ◽

The Public ◽

Political Group

Discourses are mostly used by the elites as a means of controlling public discourse and hence, the public mind. In this way, they try to legitimate their ideology, values and norms in the society, which may result in social power abuse, dominance or inequality. The role of a critical discourse analyst is to understand and expose such abuses and inequalities. To this end, this paper is aimed at understanding and exposing the discursive construction of an anti-immigration Europe by the elites in the European Parliament (EP), through the example of Kristina Winberg, a member of the Sweden Democrats political party in Sweden and the political group of Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy in the EP. In the theoretical and methodological framework, the premises and strategies of van Dijk’s socio-cognitive approach of critical discourse analysis make it possible to achieve the aim of the paper.

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On Waxen Wings: Challenges to the Public Sphere in the Network Age

MacEwan University Student eJournal ◽

10.31542/j.muse.208 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 3 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Mike Francoeur

Keyword(s):

Public Sphere ◽

Public Discourse ◽

The Internet ◽

The Public ◽

Digital Space ◽

Multiple Viewpoints ◽

Internet Users ◽

Economic Production ◽

The Public Sphere ◽

Communicative Space

There is a tendency, particularly among Western pundits and technologists, to examine the Internet in almost universally positive terms; this is most evident in any discussion of the medium’s capacity for democratization. While the Internet has produced many great things for society in terms of cultural and economic production, some consideration must be given to the implications that such a revolutionary medium holds for the public sphere. By creating a communicative space that essentially grants everyone his or her own microphone, the Internet is fragmenting public discourse due to the proliferation of opinions and messages and the removal of traditional gatekeepers of information. More significantly, because of the structural qualities of the Internet, users no longer have to expose themselves to opinions and viewpoints that fall outside their own preconceived notions. This limits the robustness of the public sphere by limiting the healthy debate that can only occur when exposed to multiple viewpoints. Ultimately, the Internet is not going anywhere, so it is important to equip the public with the tools and knowledge to be able to navigate the digital space.

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COVID-19 and the politicisation of medical preprints on Twitter: Quantitative Analysis of Social Media Data (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.25169 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Aleksandra Urman ◽

Stefania Ionescu ◽

David Garcia ◽

Anikó Hannák

Keyword(s):

Social Media ◽

Direct Effect ◽

Public Discourse ◽

The Public ◽

Media Companies ◽

Preventative Measures ◽

Twitter Users ◽

New Research ◽

Sharing Patterns ◽

Political Divide

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists have been willing to share their results quickly to speed up the development of potential treatments and/or a vaccine. At the same time, traditional peer-review-based publication systems are not always able to process new research promptly. This has contributed to a surge in the number of medical preprints published since January 2020. In the absence of a vaccine, preventative measures such as social distancing are most helpful in slowing the spread of COVID-19. Their effectiveness can be undermined if the public does not comply with them. Hence, public discourse can have a direct effect on the progression of the pandemic. Research shows that social media discussions on COVID-19 are driven mainly by the findings from preprints, not peer-reviewed papers, highlighting the need to examine the ways medical preprints are shared and discussed online. OBJECTIVE We examine the patterns of medRxiv preprint sharing on Twitter to establish (1) whether the number of tweets linking to medRxiv increased with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) which medical preprints were mentioned on Twitter most often; (3) whether medRxiv sharing patterns on Twitter exhibit political partisanship; (4) whether the discourse surrounding medical preprints among Twitter users has changed throughout the pandemic. METHODS The analysis is based on tweets (n=557,405) containing links to medRxriv preprint repository that were posted between the creation of the repository in June 2019 and June 2020. The study relies on a combination of statistical techniques and text analysis methods. RESULTS Since January 2020, the number of tweets linking to medRxiv has increased drastically, peaking in April 2020 with a subsequent cool-down. Before the pandemic, preprints were shared predominantly by users we identify as medical professionals and scientists. After January 2020, other users, including politically-engaged ones, have started increasingly tweeting about medRxiv. Our findings indicate a political divide in sharing patterns of the top-10 most-tweeted preprints. All of them were shared more frequently by users who describe themselves as Republicans than by users who describe themselves as Democrats. Finally, we observe a change in the discourse around medRxiv preprints. Pre-pandemic tweets linking to them were predominantly using the word “preprint”. In February 2020 “preprint” was taken over by the word “study”. Our analysis suggests this change is at least partially driven by politically-engaged users. Widely shared medical preprints can have a direct effect on the public discourse around COVID-19, which in turn can affect the societies’ willingness to comply with preventative measures. This calls for an increased responsibility when dealing with medical preprints from all parties involved: scientists, preprint repositories, media, politicians, and social media companies. CONCLUSIONS Widely shared medical preprints can have a direct effect on the public discourse around COVID-19, which in turn can affect the societies’ willingness to comply with preventative measures. This calls for an increased responsibility when dealing with medical preprints from all parties involved: scientists, preprint repositories, media, politicians, and social media companies.

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Financial Crises and the Public Discourse on Financial Elites

10.1093/oso/9780198782797.003.0002 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Youssef Cassis ◽

Giuseppe Telesca

Keyword(s):

Great Depression ◽

Great Recession ◽

Public Discourse ◽

Codes Of Conduct ◽

The Public ◽

The Great Recession ◽

The Great Depression ◽

Early Twenty ◽

Before And After ◽

Late Twentieth

Why were elite bankers and financiers demoted from ‘masters’ to ‘servants’ of society after the Great Depression, a crisis to which they contributed only marginally? Why do they seem to have got away with the recent crisis, in spite of their palpable responsibilities in triggering the Great Recession? This chapter provides an analysis of the differences between the bankers of the Great Depression and their colleagues of the late twentieth/early twenty-first century—regarding their position within, and attitude towards the firm, work culture, mental models, and codes of conduct—complemented with a scrutiny of the public discourse on bankers and financiers before and after the two crises. The authors argue that the (relative) mildness of the Great Recession, compared to the Great Depression, has contributed to preserve elite bankers’ and financiers’ status, income, wealth, and influence. Yet, the long-term consequences of their loss of reputational capital are difficult to assess.

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Prostate cancer and the human papilloma virus: causative association, role of vaccines, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

Prostate Cancer and Prostatic Diseases ◽

10.1038/s41391-021-00404-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Naomi Morka ◽

Joseph M. Norris ◽

Mark Emberton ◽

Daniel Kelly

Keyword(s):

Prostate Cancer ◽

Human Papilloma Virus ◽

Hpv Vaccination ◽

Significant Proportion ◽

Vaccine Uptake ◽

Papilloma Virus ◽

Vaccination Campaigns ◽

The Impact ◽

Hpv Vaccine Uptake

AbstractProstate cancer affects a significant proportion of men worldwide. Evidence from genetic and clinical studies suggests that there may be a causal association between prostate cancer and the human papilloma virus (HPV). As HPV is a vaccine-preventable pathogen, the possibility of a role in prostate cancer causation may reinforce the importance of effective HPV vaccination campaigns. This is of particular relevance in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have considerable effects on HPV vaccine uptake and distribution.

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Climate Change Inaction and Optimism

Philosophies ◽

10.3390/philosophies6030061 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 61

Author(s):

Philip J. Wilson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Economic Growth ◽

Collective Action ◽

Public Discourse ◽

Collective Action Problem ◽

The Public ◽

Policy Context ◽

Positive Action ◽

Ideological Fantasy

The problem of climate change inaction is sometimes said to be ‘wicked’, or essentially insoluble, and it has also been seen as a collective action problem, which is correct but inconsequential. In the absence of progress, much is made of various frailties of the public, hence the need for an optimistic tone in public discourse to overcome fatalism and encourage positive action. This argument is immaterial without meaningful action in the first place, and to favour what amounts to the suppression of truth over intellectual openness is in any case disreputable. ‘Optimism’ is also vexed in this context, often having been opposed to the sombre mood of environmentalists by advocates of economic growth. The greater mental impediments are ideological fantasy, which is blind to the contradictions in public discourse, and the misapprehension that if optimism is appropriate in one social or policy context it must be appropriate in others. Optimism, far from spurring climate change action, fosters inaction.

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Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021

Nature Human Behaviour ◽

10.1038/s41562-021-01155-z ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Juan Yang ◽

Valentina Marziano ◽

Xiaowei Deng ◽

Giorgio Guzzetta ◽

Juanjuan Zhang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Synergetic Effect ◽

Data Driven ◽

Natural Immunity ◽

Epidemic Threshold ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Large Populations ◽

One Year ◽

Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractCOVID-19 vaccination is being conducted in over 200 countries and regions to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission and return to a pre-pandemic lifestyle. However, understanding when non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) can be lifted as immunity builds up remains a key question for policy makers. To address this, we built a data-driven model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission for China. We estimated that, to prevent the escalation of local outbreaks to widespread epidemics, stringent NPIs need to remain in place at least one year after the start of vaccination. Should NPIs alone be capable of keeping the reproduction number (Rt) around 1.3, the synergetic effect of NPIs and vaccination could reduce the COVID-19 burden by up to 99% and bring Rt below the epidemic threshold in about 9 months. Maintaining strict NPIs throughout 2021 is of paramount importance to reduce COVID-19 burden while vaccines are distributed to the population, especially in large populations with little natural immunity.

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