scholarly journals Development and external validation of the DOAT and DOATS scores: simple decision support tools to identify disease progression among nonelderly patients with mild/moderate COVID-19

Author(s):  
Yoko Shibata ◽  
Hiroyuki Minemura ◽  
Yasuhito Suzuki ◽  
Takehumi Nikaido ◽  
Yoshinori Tanino ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND: Due to the dissemination of vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in the elderly, the virus-susceptible subjects have shifted to unvaccinated non-elderlies. The risk factors of COVID-19 deterioration in non-elderly patients without respiratory failure have not yet been determined. This study was aimed to create simple predicting method to identify such patients who have high risk for exacerbation. METHODS: We analyzed the data of 1675 patients aged under 65 years who were admitted to hospitals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. For validation, 324 similar patients were enrolled. Disease progression was defined as administration of medication, oxygen inhalation and mechanical ventilator starting one day or longer after admission. RESULTS: The patients who exacerbated tended to be older, male, had histories of smoking, and had high body temperatures, lower oxygen saturation, and comorbidities such as diabetes/obesity and hypertension. Stepwise logistic regression analyses revealed that comorbidities of diabetes/obesity, age ≥ 40 years, body temperature ≥ 38 degree, and oxygen saturation < 96% (DOATS) were independent risk factors of worsening COVID-19. As a result two predictive scores were created: DOATS score, which includes all the above risk factors; and DOAT score, which includes all factors except for oxygen saturation. In the original cohort, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the DOATS and DOAT scores were 0.789 and 0.771, respectively. In the validation, the areas were 0.702 and 0.722, respectively. CONCLUSION: We established two simple prediction scores that can quickly evaluate the risk of progression of COVID-19 in non-elderly, mild/moderate patients.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwei Xiao ◽  
Xiang Li ◽  
Yuanliang Xie ◽  
Zengfa Huang ◽  
Yi Ding ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: We investigated the clinical course and imaging findings of hospitalized patients who were initially diagnosed with moderate COVID-19 symptoms to identify risk factors associated with progression to severe/critical symptoms.Methods: This study was a retrospective single-center study at The Central Hospital of Wuhan. 243 patients with confirmed COVID­19 pneumonia were enrolled in the analysis, of which 40 patients progressed from moderate to severe/critical symptoms during follow up. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiological data were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between moderate and severe/critical symptom types. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to identify the risk factors associated with symptom progression.Results: Patients with severe/critical symptoms were older (p<0.001) and more often male (p=0.046). We found that the combination of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and high maximum CT scores was associated with disease progression. Maximum CT scores (≥11) had the greatest predictive value for disease progression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.861 (95% CI: 0.811-0.902).Conclusions: Maximum CT scores and COPD are associated with patient deterioration. Maximum CT scores (≥11) are associated with severe illness.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Vetta

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is one of the major causes of stroke. Data from the literature show that among the causes of stroke 60% is attributable to cerebrovascular diseases, 15% to AF, while about 25% of cases do not identify recognizable causes. The technological advancement of cardiac implanted electronic devices has enabled the identification of subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF). The literature shows that SCAF is very frequent in the elderly population and that it represents a risk factors for the onset of stroke or systemic embolic disease, regardless of other cardiovascular risk factors. While for clinical atrial fibrillation (AF) the advantages of anticoagulant therapy based on the CHA2DS2-VASCscore have been well established, much less is known about the usefulness of anticoagulant therapy in the case of SCAF. The role of the CHA2DS2-VASCscore is much debated, although recently a study has clearly shown that the number and duration of SCAF episodes together with the CHA2DS2-VASC score plays an important role in determining the risk of progression to a persistent AF. Based on these data, the ongoing ARTESIA and AFNET-NOAH studies will provide us with data to evaluate the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in SCAF.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiji Kijima ◽  
Tomohiro Thomas Kayama ◽  
Mitsuru Saito ◽  
Daisaburo Kurosaka ◽  
Ryo Ikeda ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Delirium is a well-known complication following surgery, especially with the increasing age of patients undergoing surgery. The increasing demands resulting from a prolonged healthy life expectancy has resulted in more arthroplasties despite their age and existing comorbidities. The purpose of this study is to explore the various risk factors that may contribute to delirium in unilateral and bilateral total knee arthroplasties in the elderly population. Methods: 170 patients who underwent unilateral or bilateral total knee arthroplasties were analyzed retrospectively for delirium. Age, sex, comorbidities, use of sedative-hypnotics, peri-operative blood loss, pre- and post-operative laboratory blood test results were investigated and analyzed. Results: The incidence of post-operative delirium was 6.5% (11 out of 170 patients) with a mean age of 79.5 (± 6.9) years, compared to 73.0 (± 9.0) years in the non-delirium group. Higher age, use of sedative-hypnotics, low pre-operative Hb and Ht, low post-operative Hb, Ht and BUN were observed in the delirium group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the use of sedative-hypnotics and pre-operative Hb level were independent risk factors for post-operative delirium after TKA. The odds ratios for the use of sedative-hypnotics and pre-operative Hb level were 4.6 and 0.53, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that pre-operative Hb of less than 11.1 g/dL was a predictor for the development of delirium, with a sensitivity of 54.6% and a specificity of 91.6%.Conclusion: Patients with a pre-operative Hb level of <11.1 g/dL or those using sedative-hypnotics are associated with post-operative delirium. Peri-operative management and preventative measures are therefore needed to reduce the risks of post-operative delirium in such patients.


2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (6) ◽  
pp. 1298-1303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Wolf ◽  
Sophie Frantal ◽  
Gholam S. Pajenda ◽  
Olivia Salameh ◽  
Harald Widhalm ◽  
...  

Object The role of the neuromarkers S100B protein and neuron-specific enolase (NSE) in minor head injury is well established. Moreover, there are sensitive decision rules available in the literature to identify clinically important brain lesions. However, it is not clear if using the biomarkers has an influence on the predictability of the decision rule. The purpose of this study was to determine if a set of preclinical and clinical parameters combined with 2 neuromarker levels could serve as reliable guidance for accurate diagnosis. Methods Prospective evaluation of a cohort of head trauma patients with Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 13–15 was performed at an academic, Level I trauma center. Blood samples and cranial CT studies were obtained for all patients within 3 hours after injury. The hypothesis of the study was whether the combination of an increase of S100B and NSE levels in serum and other defined risk factors are associated with a pathological finding on CT. A forward stepwise logistic regression model was used. Results The study included 107 head trauma patients with a mean age of 59 ± 23 years. Twenty-five patients (23.4%) had traumatic lesions on CT. Eight patients underwent craniotomy. The analysis provided a model with good overall accuracy for discriminating cases with clinically important brain injury, including the 6 variables of S100B, NSE, nausea, amnesia, vomiting, and loss of consciousness. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.88 (0.83–0.93). The receiver operating characteristic curve plots detecting clinically important brain injury for the single variables of S100B and NSE showed an AUC of 0.63 and 0.64, respectively. Conclusions The integration of the neuromarker panel as part of a diagnostic rule including the high-risk factors of nausea, vomiting, amnesia, and loss of consciousness is safe and reliable in determining a diagnosis, pending the availability of more brain-specific neuromarkers. Clinical trial registration no.: NCT00622778 (ClinicalTrials.gov).


Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 2507-2507
Author(s):  
Reena Pabari ◽  
Elisa Cohen ◽  
Geoffrey Cuvelier ◽  
Robert J Klaassen ◽  
Conrad Fernandez ◽  
...  

Introduction Inherited bone marrow failure syndromes (IBMFSs) are rare genetic disorders characterized by abnormal hematopoiesis resulting in cytopenias and increased risk of myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Once patients develop MDS the only curative therapy is hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). The rate of progression from early MDS to advanced MDS and AML is variable and risk factors for progression in IBMFS patients are poorly defined. We hypothesized that certain variables could predict the likelihood of progression from early stages of IBMFS-associated MDS/clonal hematopoiesis to advanced MDS or AML, and that the type of disease progression may impact overall survival (OS). Methods Data were collected from patients prospectively enrolled in the Canadian Inherited Marrow Failure Registry (CIMFR), a collaboration of 1 adult and 16 pediatric hospitals in Canada that care for >95% of pediatric IBMFS patients. IBMFS patients were diagnosed as having a specific syndrome or unclassified IBMFS (UCIBMFS) based on published criteria from our lab and others'. Diagnostic criteria for pediatric MDS defined by Hasle et al. were used. Progression of MDS was defined as 1 or more of: (1) a new cytogenetic abnormality, (2) progression in cytopathology from refractory cytopenia (RC) or refractory cytopenia with ringed sideroblasts (RCRS) to refractory cytopenia with dysplasia (RCD), refractory cytopenia with excess blasts (RCEB) or AML, or (3) increased degree of cytopenia severity. Time to progression was described by Kaplan-Meier analysis and risk factors were evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards model. Results Of 601 patients enrolled in CIMFR, 59 (9.8%) developed cytogenetic clones/MDS. Thirteen (22%) had Fanconi Anemia (FA), 13 (22%) had Shwachman-Diamond Syndrome (SDS), 10 (16.9%) had UCIBMFS, and 23 (39%) had other marrow failure syndromes (i.e. Dyskeratosis Congenita, Severe Congenital Neutropenia, Diamond Blackfan Anemia, GATA2-related disorders). The majority presented with cytogenetic clones/RC (n=45, 76%), 9 (15%) had RCEB, 3 (5%) RCD and 1 (1.7%) RCRS. The most common cytogenetic abnormalities at presentation were -7/-7q (n=18, 30%) and isochromosome 7q10 (n=7, 12%). Four patients had complex cytogenetics (6.8%). Of the patients who developed MDS, 32 (54%) went to HSCT. Patients who developed MDS had significantly worse OS (HR 3, 95% CI 2 to 6, p<0.0001), which varied by IBMFS category. MDS patients with UCIBMFS had a statistically significant lower OS compared to those without MDS (HR 5.7, 95% CI 1.7 to 18.6, p=0.004). In contrast, patients with FA had poor OS regardless of whether or not they developed MDS. Twenty four MDS patients (40%) had disease progression, with a median time to progression of 4.7 months (1.14-131). Nine patients (38%) with disease progression had FA, 5 (21%) had SDS, 4 (17%) had UC, and 6 (25%) had other marrow failure syndromes. Ten patients (42%) developed more advanced cytopathology, 10 (42%) a new cytogenetic abnormality, and 5 (20%) worsening cytopenias. Eight patients progressed from RC to RCEB, with a median time to progression of 5.7 months (1.14 to 113). Progression to more advanced cytopathology was associated with lower OS (HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.0 to 7.4, p=0.046). Median time to progression of cytogenetics was 4.13 months (1.14 to 131), which was not predictive of worse OS (p=0.22). Notably, there was no difference in OS or risk of progression between the -7/-7q and isochromosome 7q groups (p=0.644). Finally, patients who progressed due to worsening cytopenias had significantly lower OS compared to those who did not (p=0.011), but numbers were small. Seventeen (71%) of the MDS patients who progressed underwent HSCT. Conclusion Development of MDS has a significant adverse impact on the OS of IBMFS patients, with disease progression occurring 4.7 months from MDS diagnosis. Progression to advanced cytopathology is associated with decreased survival, while worsening cytogenetic clones and cytopenias may not carry the same risk. Importantly, isochromosome 7q10 is also associated with a risk of progression to more severe hematological disease, and may have an impact on survival. Further analysis of additional variables (i.e. HSCT) will provide insight into the important predictors of survival and disease progression, and help to guide treatment decisions for this high-risk patient population. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2019 ◽  
pp. 1-4

Stroke is one of the major causes of death and disability. Atrial fibrillation causes 15% of strokes, 60% is caused by cerebrovascular disease, whereas 25% of cases have no known cause. The technological advancement of cardiac implanted electronic devices has enabled the identification of subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF). The literature shows that SCAF is very frequent in the elderly population and that it represents a risk factors for the onset of stroke or systemic embolic disease, regardless of other cardiovascular risk factors. While for clinical atrial fibrillation (AF) the advantages of anticoagulant therapy based on the CHA2 DS2 -VASC score have been well established, much has been said about the usefulness of anticoagulant therapy in the case of SCAF. The role of AF and CHA2 DS2 -VASC score is much debated. A study has recently clearly shown how the SCAF burden together with CHA2 DS2 -VASC score play an important role in determining the risk of progression to persistent AF. Based on these data, the ongoing ARTESIA and AFNET-NOAH studies will provide us with data to evaluate the efficacy of anticoagulant therapy in SCAF.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji Yeon Lee ◽  
Jee Young Lee ◽  
Jae-Hoon Ko ◽  
Miri Hyun ◽  
Hyun Ah Kim ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo evaluate clinical effectiveness of regdanvimab, a monoclonal antibody agent for treating coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19).MethodsA retrospective cohort study was conducted at two general hospitals during the study period of December 2020 to May 2021. Mild COVID-19 patients with risk factors for disease progression admitted to the hospitals within seven days of symptom onset were enrolled and followed until discharge or referral. Multivariate analyses for disease progression were conducted in the total and propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts.ResultsA total of 778 mild COVID-19 patients were included and classified as the regdanvimab (n = 234) and supportive care (n = 544) groups. Significantly fewer patients required O2 supplementation via nasal prong in the regdanvimab group (8.1%) than in the supportive care group (18.4%, P &lt; 0.001). The decreased risk for O2 support by regdanvimab treatment was noticed in the multivariate analysis of the total cohort (HR 0.570, 95% CI 0.343–0.946, P = 0.030), but it was not statistically significant in the PS-matched cohort (P = 0.057). Progression to severe disease was also significantly lower in the regdanvimab group (2.1%) than in the supportive care group (9.6%, P &lt; 0.001). The significantly reduced risk for progression to severe disease by regdanvimab treatment was observed in the analysis of both the total cohort (HR 0.262, 95% CI 0.103–0.667, P = 0.005) and PS-matched cohort (HR 0.176, 95% CI 0.060–0.516, P = 0.002). Potential risk factors for progression were investigated in the supportive care group and SpO2 &lt; 97% and CRP elevation &gt;1.5 mg/dL were common risk factors for O2 support and progression to severe disease. Among the patients with any of these factors, regdanvimab treatment was associated with decreased risk for progression to severe disease with slightly lower HR (HR 0.202, 95% CI 0.062–0.657, P = 0.008) than that of the total cohort.ConclusionRegdanvimab treatment was associated with a decreased risk of progression to severe disease.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiji Kijima ◽  
Tomohiro Thomas Kayama ◽  
Mitsuru Saito ◽  
Daisaburo Kurosaka ◽  
Ryo Ikeda ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Delirium is a well-known complication following surgery, especially with the increasing age of patients undergoing surgery. The increasing demands resulting from a prolonged healthy life expectancy has resulted in more arthroplasties despite their age and existing comorbidities. The purpose of this study is to explore the various risk factors that may contribute to delirium in unilateral and bilateral total knee arthroplasties in the elderly population. Methods: 170 patients who underwent unilateral or bilateral total knee arthroplasties were analyzed retrospectively for delirium. Age, sex, comorbidities, use of sedative-hypnotics, intra-operative blood loss, pre- and post-operative laboratory blood test results were investigated and analyzed. Results: The incidence of post-operative delirium was 6.5% (11 out of 170 patients) with a mean age of 79.5 (± 6.9) years, compared to 73.0 (± 9.0) years in the non-delirium group. Higher age, use of sedative-hypnotics, low pre-operative Hb and Ht, low post-operative Hb, Ht and BUN were observed in the delirium group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the use of sedative-hypnotics and pre-operative Hb level were independent risk factors for post-operative delirium after TKA. The odds ratios for the use of sedative-hypnotics and pre-operative Hb level were 4.6 and 0.53, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that pre-operative Hb of less than 11.1 g/dL was a predictor for the development of delirium, with a sensitivity of 54.6% and a specificity of 91.6%. Conclusion: Patients with a pre-operative Hb level of <11.1 g/dL or those using sedative-hypnotics have an increased risk for post-operative delirium. Peri-operative management and preventative measures are therefore needed to reduce the risks of post-operative delirium in such patients.


2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 772-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi Sonobe ◽  
Ryuji Hata ◽  
Tomohisa Ishikawa ◽  
Kantaro Sonobe ◽  
Teruhisa Matsumoto ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTBackground: Memory impairment has been proposed as the most common early sign of Alzheimer's disease (AD). The aims of this work were to evaluate the risk of progression from mild memory impairment/no dementia (MMI/ND) to clinically diagnosable AD in a community-based prospective cohort and to establish the risk factors for progression from MMI/ND to AD in the elderly.Methods: Elderly subjects aged over 65 years were selected from the participants in the first Nakayama study. MMI/ND was defined as memory deficit on objective memory assessment, without dementia, impairment of general cognitive function, or disability in activities of daily living. A total of 104 MMI/ND subjects selected from 1242 community-dwellers were followed longitudinally for five years.Results: During the five-year follow-up, 11 (10.6%) subjects were diagnosed with AD, five (4.8%) with vascular dementia (VaD), and six (5.8%) with dementia of other etiology. Logistic regression analysis revealed that diabetes mellitus (DM) and a family history of dementia (within third-degree relatives) were positively associated with progression to AD, while no factor was significantly associated with progression to VaD or all types of dementia.Conclusions: DM and a family history of dementia were significant risk factors for progression from MMI/ND to clinically diagnosable AD in the elderly in a Japanese community.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eiji Kijima ◽  
Tomohiro Kayama ◽  
Mitsuru Saito ◽  
Daisaburo Kurosaka ◽  
Ryo Ikeda ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Delirium is a well-known complication following surgery, especially with the increasing age of patients undergoing surgery. The increasing demands resulting from a prolonged healthy life expectancy has resulted in more arthroplasties despite their age and existing comorbidities. The purpose of this study is to explore the various risk factors that may contribute to delirium in unilateral and bilateral total knee arthroplasties in the elderly population. Methods: 170 patients who underwent unilateral or bilateral total knee arthroplasties were analyzed retrospectively for delirium. Age, sex, comorbidities, use of sedative-hypnotics, peri-operative blood loss, pre- and post-operative laboratory blood test results were investigated and analyzed. Results: The incidence of post-operative delirium was 6.5% (11 out of 170 patients) with a mean age of 79.5 (± 6.9) years, compared to 73.0 (± 9.0) years in the non-delirium group. Higher age, use of sedative-hypnotics, low pre-operative Hb and Ht, low post-operative Hb, Ht and BUN were observed in the delirium group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the use of sedative-hypnotics and pre-operative Hb level were independent risk factors for post-operative delirium after TKA. The odds ratios for the use of sedative-hypnotics and pre-operative Hb level were 4.6 and 0.53, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that pre-operative Hb of less than 11.1 g/dL was a predictor for the development of delirium, with a sensitivity of 54.6% and a specificity of 91.6%. Conclusion: Patients with a pre-operative Hb level of <11.1 g/dL or those using sedative-hypnotics are associated with post-operative delirium. Peri-operative management and preventative measures are therefore needed to reduce the risks of post-operative delirium in such patients.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document