scholarly journals Late greenhouse gas mitigation has heterogeneous effects on European caddisfly diversity patterns

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie R Januchowski-Hartley ◽  
Christine Lauzeral ◽  
Astrid Schmidt-Kloiber ◽  
Wolfram Graf ◽  
Sebastien Brosse
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Scenario ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Business As Usual

ABSTRACTLittle remains known about how the timing of mitigation of current greenhouse gas emissions will influence freshwater biodiversity patterns. Using three general circulation models, we evaluate the response of 260 broad-ranging European caddisfly species to climate conditions in 2080 under two scenarios: business as usual (A2A) and mitigation (A1B). If implemented effectively, recent government commitments established under COP21, to mitigate current greenhouse gas emissions, would result in future climatic conditions similar to the mitigation scenario we explored. Under the Cgcm circulation model, which we found to be the most conservative model, suitable environmental conditions were predicted to shift 3° more to the east under the mitigation scenario compared to business as usual. The majority of broad-ranging European caddisfly species will benefit from mitigation, but 5 to 15% of species that we evaluated will be bigger losers under the mitigation scenario compared to business as usual. Under the mitigation scenario, caddisfly species that will retain less of their current range and experience lower predicted range expansion are those that currently have relatively limited distributions. Continental-scale assessments such as the ones that we present are needed to identify species at greatest risk of range loss under changing climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Significant and Inevitable End-of-Twenty-First-Century Advances in Surface Runoff Timing in California’s Sierra Nevada

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 3181-3197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marla Schwartz ◽  
Alex Hall ◽  
Fengpeng Sun ◽  
Daniel Walton ◽  
Neil Berg
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
First Century ◽  
Mitigation Scenario ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Business As Usual

Abstract Using hybrid dynamical–statistical downscaling, 3-km-resolution end-of-twenty-first-century runoff timing changes over California’s Sierra Nevada for all available global climate models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are projected. All four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report are examined. These multimodel, multiscenario projections allow for quantification of ensemble-mean runoff timing changes and an associated range of possible outcomes due to both intermodel variability and choice of forcing scenario. Under a “business as usual” forcing scenario (RCP8.5), warming leads to a shift toward much earlier snowmelt-driven surface runoff in 2091–2100 compared to 1991–2000, with advances of as much as 80 days projected in the 35-model ensemble mean. For a realistic “mitigation” scenario (RCP4.5), the ensemble-mean change is smaller but still large (up to 30 days). For all plausible forcing scenarios and all GCMs, the simulated changes are statistically significant, so that a detectable change in runoff timing is inevitable. Even for the mitigation scenario, the ensemble-mean change is approximately equivalent to one standard deviation of the natural variability at most elevations. Thus, even when greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, the runoff change is climatically significant. For the business-as-usual scenario, the ensemble-mean change is approximately two standard deviations of the natural variability at most elevations, portending a truly dramatic change in surface hydrology by the century’s end if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

Ecological specificities of the interaction between animal breeding and climate changes, caused by greenhouse gas emissions

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-72
Author(s):  
O. Zhukorsky ◽  
O. Nykyforuk ◽  
N. Boltyk
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Animal Breeding ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Emissions Inventory ◽  
Theoretical Substantiation ◽  
Global Problems

Aim. Proper development of animal breeding in the conditions of current global problems and the decrease of anthropogenic burden on environment due to greenhouse gas emissions, caused by animal breeding activity, require the study of interaction processes between animal breeding and external climatic conditions. Methods. The theoretical substantiation of the problem was performed based on scientifi c literature, statistical informa- tion of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the data of the National greenhouse gas emissions inventory in Ukraine. Theoretically possible emissions of greenhouse gases into atmosphere due to animal breeding in Ukraine and specifi c farms are calculated by the international methods using the statistical infor- mation about animal breeding in Ukraine and the economic-technological information of the activity of the investigated farms. Results. The interaction between the animal breeding production and weather-and-climate conditions of environment was analyzed. Possible vectors of activity for the industry, which promote global warming and negative processes, related to it, were determined. The main factors, affecting the formation of greenhouse gases from the activity of enterprises, aimed at animal breeding production, were characterized. Literature data, statistical data and calculations were used to analyze the role of animal breeding in the green- house gas emissions in global and national framework as well as at the level of specifi c farms with the consid- eration of individual specifi cities of these farms. Conclusions. Current global problems require clear balance between constant development of sustainable animal breeding and the decrease of the carbon footprint due to the activity of animal breeding.

scholarly journals Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Historical Climatic Conditions?

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Bock ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
R. Dwight Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Ks Test

Abstract The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

GREENHOUSE GAS OFFSETS: ANALYSIS OF BASELINE RULES AND ADDITIONALITY FOR REDUCED NITROGEN APPLICATION ON WHEAT

2014 ◽  
Vol 05 (02) ◽  
pp. 1450002 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOHN HOROWITZ
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Fertilizer Application ◽  
Nitrous Oxide Emissions ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Nitrogen Emissions ◽  
Reduced Nitrogen ◽  
Benefit Cost ◽  
Business As Usual

Agriculture is a source of greenhouse gas emissions that could be included as offsets in a cap-and-trade system. This paper describes offset rules that could be applied to reduced nitrogen fertilizer application on wheat, a source of nitrous oxide emissions. Unlike other papers that have examined offset rules, we do not assume that farmers' business-as-usual nitrogen emissions can be perfectly predicted. We construct a structural model of wheat production and use this, along with Agricultural Resource Management Survey data, to model or estimate participation in the offset market, offset supply conditional on participation, and business-as-usual emissions. We find that roughly two-thirds of the supplied offsets would be non-additional at an allowance price of $15/tonne CO 2-e. Under assumptions about the social damages from greenhouse gas emissions, we find that allowing nitrogen offsets would marginally pass a standard benefit-cost test.

Projected Climate Impacts

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Romm
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Science Projects ◽  
Global Action ◽  
Business As Usual

This chapter will discuss what climate science projects will happen this century. The focus will be on the so-called business-as-usual case, which assumes no significant global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions trends in the foreseeable future. The primary source will be the latest scientific...

How Quickly Should the World Reduce its Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

2021 ◽  
pp. 295-322
Author(s):  
Lucas Stanczyk
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Welfare Economics ◽  
Environmental Conservation ◽  
International Justice ◽  
Intergenerational Justice ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Present Generation ◽  
The World ◽  
Business As Usual

Given the accompanying sacrifices, how quickly should the present generation reduce its greenhouse gas emissions? The dominant framework for thinking about this question continues to be normative welfare economics. This chapter explains why the dominant approach should be rejected, and outlines the structure of what the author has come to think is the correct one. On this approach, requirements of intergenerational justice are understood, not as the means to, but as the most important constraints on maximizing intertemporal welfare. The chapter explains why the main content of these constraints can be given by the theories of social and international justice. Finally, it explains why the non-identity problem does not undermine the recommended way of thinking about intergenerational justice. Even if the business-as-usual baseline in greenhouse gas emissions will never harm any unborn future people, we can still say that humanity is forever subject to a suitably high environmental conservation standard.

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