Adaptive efficiency of the Mexican Stock Exchange

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 326-335
Author(s):  
Esmeralda Brito-Cervantes ◽  
Semei Coronado ◽  
Manuel Morales-García ◽  
Omar Rojas
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Information Process ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Adaptive Efficiency ◽  
Non Linear

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse the adaptive market efficiency in the price–volume (P–V) relationship of the stocks listed in the Mexican Stock Exchange. The period under study goes from 1982 to 2015. In order to detect causality and, thus, determine adaptive efficiency in the market, one linear and two non-linear tests are applied. There are few papers in the literature that study the P–V relationship in Latin American markets; as such, this paper may be of interest and importance to financial academics and practitioners alike. Design/methodology/approach The Diks and Panchenko (DP) non-parametric Granger causality and the Brooks and Hinich (BH) cross-bicorrelation tests are applied. Findings Derived from the DP test, the findings show that there exists bi-directional non-linear Granger causality in 25.71 per cent of the firms studied, compared to 8 per cent when applying the linear Granger causality test. Therefore, there is evidence of weak-form efficiency in the market. From the BH test, evidence is shown of the adaptive market efficiency, since 71.42 per cent of firms exhibited some form of non-linear dependence in certain periods of time. With these results, the information process should be better studied for a greater comprehension of regulatory policies in the market and better decision-making tools for the investors. Originality/value This paper complements studies on the P–V relationship and efficiency in a Latin American market.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation

Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 17
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Gkillas ◽  
Christoforos Konstantatos ◽  
Costas Siriopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Non Linear

We study the non-linear causal relation between uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases and stock–bond correlation. To this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ a nonlinear Granger causality test with the use of artificial neural networks so as to investigate the predictability of this type of uncertainty on realized stock–bond correlation and jumps. Our findings reveal that uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases has significant predictive value on the changes of the stock–bond relation.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals Dynamic linkage between nifty-fifty and sectorial indices of national stock exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
Kamaljit Singh ◽  
Vinod Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Financial Service ◽  
Causality Test

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the trend and pattern of the Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. An attempt has been also made to find out the causal relationship among the Nifty-Fifty and NSE sectorial Indices. The unit root test and Granger-causality test has been applied to check the causal relationship between Nifty-Fifty and sectorial indices. The finding of the study shows that the financial service sector had performed better and followed by the banking sector among all the indices while the Pharma sector and the Realty sector were Under-performed in comparison to other indices. The Nifty-Fifty has been found less volatile in comparison to other sectorial indices however Realty sector indices show the highest volatility during the study period.

scholarly journals The Relationships between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: Empirical Investigation from Johannesburg Stock Exchange

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahmudul Alam ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin ◽  
Khan Md. Raziuddin Taufique
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rate Sensitivity ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test

This study seeks evidence supporting the existence of market efficiency and exchange rate sensitivity on stock prices in the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE). The sample includes the daily price indices of all securities listed on the JSE, and the exchange rate of the USD/Rand for the period since January 2000 to December 2004. The results from the unit root test, the ADF test and the causality test at the Granger sense provide evidence that the Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE) is informationally efficient. It has a long run comovement with exchange rate, and long run equilibrium or steady state. Hence, in JSE there is a strong possibility that foreign direct investors and forex market traders cannot influence and gain abnormal extra benefits by using exchange rate mechanism or by using exchange rate to forecast stock prices in the market. So, JSE is semi-strong form efficient. Through cointegration test, this paper gives more insight on the concept of market efficiency and the reliability of the results. These results are important to security analysts, investors, and security regulatory exchange bodies in policy making decision to improve the market conditions

Does Ban on Futures trading (de)stabilise spot volatility?

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neharika Sobti
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Futures Trading ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Spot Volatility ◽  
Non Parametric

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the possible consequences of ban on futures trading of agriculture commodities in India by examining three critical issues: first, the author explores whether price discovery dominance changes between futures and spot in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phase both in the long run and short run. Second, the author examines the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on its underlying spot volatility for five sample cases of agriculture commodities (Wheat, Sugar, Soya Refined Oil, Rubber and Chana) using both parametric and non-parametric tests. Third, the author revisits the destabilization hypothesis in the light of ban on futures trading by examining the impact of unexpected component of liquidity of futures on spot volatility. Design/methodology/approach The author uses widely adopted methodology of co-integration to examine long-run relationship between spot and futures, while the short-run relationship is investigated using vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality to test price discovery in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases. The second objective is explored using a combination of parametric and non-parametric tests such as Welch one-way ANOVA and Kruskal–Wallis test, respectively, to gauge the impact of ban on futures trading on spot volatility along with post hoc tests to investigate pairwise comparison of spot volatility among three phases (pre-ban, ban and post-relaunch) using Dunn Test. In addition, extensive robustness test is undertaken by adopting augmented E-GARCH model to ascertain the impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading on spot volatility. The third objective is investigated using Granger causality test between spot volatility and unexpected component of liquidity of futures estimated using Hodrick and Prescott (HP) filter to re-visit the destabilization hypothesis. Findings The author found extensive evidence for the dominance of futures market in the price discovery of agriculture commodities both in the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases in India. The ban on futures trading is found to have a destabilizing impact on spot volatility as evident from the findings of Wheat, Sugar and Rubber. In addition, it is observed that spot volatility was highest during the ban phase as compared to the pre-ban and post-relaunch phases for all four commodities barring Chana. The author found that destabilisation hypothesis holds true during the pre ban phase, while weakening of destabilization hypothesis is observed in the post-relaunch phase as unexpected futures liquidity has no role in driving the spot volatility. Originality/value This study is a novel attempt to empirically examine the potential impact of ban and relaunch of futures trading of agriculture commodities on two key market quality dimensions – price discovery and spot volatility. In addition, destabilization hypothesis is revisited to investigate the impact of futures trading on spot volatility during the pre-ban and post-relaunch period.

scholarly journals The correlation and volatility between bitcoin and the blockchain index

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-115
Author(s):  
Tuotuo Qi ◽  
Tianmei Wang ◽  
Jianming Zhu ◽  
Ruyu Bai
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Class Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Blockchain Technology ◽  
The World ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The encrypted money market has attracted the attention of investors all over the world. Among the encrypted currency, bitcoin is undoubtedly the most popular. Because blockchain technology is the crucial support of bitcoin, exploring the relationship between bitcoin and the blockchain index is necessary. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses the Granger causality test to explore the correlation between bitcoin and the blockchain index. Furthermore, their volatility is analyzed by a GARCH-class model. Findings The results show that no significant correlation exists between bitcoin and the blockchain index; external shocks aggravate the volatility of bitcoin and the blockchain index, and the volatility has a certain degree of sustainability; and blockchain index has obvious leverage, namely, its decline has a stronger impact. Originality/value The volatility of bitcoin and the blockchain index is crucial for investors.

Dynamic effect of Tobin's Q on price-to-earnings ratio

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
pp. 634-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vichet Sum
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Ratio Change ◽  
Pe Ratio

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic effect of Tobin's q ratio on price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. Design/methodology/approach – The objective of this study is to investigate the dynamic effect of Tobin's q on PE ratio. To achieve this objective, a vector autoregressive analysis (Equation (1)) is employed to analyze the quarterly data from 1951Q4 to 2012Q4 to determine the generalized impulse response functions and perform the variance decomposition of Tobin's q ratio on PE ratio. The Granger causality Wald test is performed to determine if Tobin's q ratio causes PE ratio and vice versa. Findings – Based on the analysis of the quarterly market-level data from 1951Q4 to 2012Q4, the results show that PE ratio significantly drops immediately following the shock to the change in Tobin's q ratio. The results from the Granger-causality test indicate that Tobin's q ratio change causes PE ratio to drop. There is not a reverse causation from PE ratio to Tobin's q ratio change. The variance decomposition results reveal that Tobin's q ratio change forecasts about 67.53 to 67.78 percent of PE ratio at the two-quarter to eight-quarter horizons. Originality/value – Up to this point, there is not a single study in the literature investigating the relationship between Tobin's q and PE ratios. Consequently, the current study is set up to investigate the dynamic effect of Tobin's q ratio on PE ratio. A major contribution of this study is to provide empirical evidence of the dynamic effect of Tobin's q ratio on PE ratio.

Corporate social and financial performance in different industry contexts: the chicken or the egg?

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 672-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Tuppura ◽  
Heli Arminen ◽  
Satu Pätäri ◽  
Ari Jantunen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Corporate Social Performance ◽  
Social Performance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forest Industries ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
Corporate Social

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to examine empirically Granger causality relationships between corporate social performance (CSP) and corporate financial performance (CFP) in four different industries. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the Granger causality test to analyse the causality relationships between CSP and CFP in clothing, energy, food and forest industries in the USA. The panel data used combined CSP and CFP measures over the years 1991-2009. CSP strengths and concerns are handled as distinct constructs. Findings There is some evidence of bidirectional causality between CSP and CFP in the clothing, energy and forest industries; but in the food industry, CSP appears not to Granger-cause CFP. The results encourage accounting for the industry in empirical analyses, as well as the use of more than one measure for CFP in the analyses. Originality/value The direction of causality between CSP and CFP has been specifically addressed in only a few studies. Because the causality relationship may, in addition, be concealed when multi-industry data are used, this paper contributes to the literature by examining the Granger causality between CSP and CFP in four different industry contexts using two different measures of CFP.

scholarly journals CAPITAL MARKET INTEGRATION OF ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES : AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Tom Jacob ◽  
Rincy Raphael ◽  
M.V. Stebiya
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
East Asian ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Fully Integrated ◽  
Market Return ◽  
International Portfolio Diversification

The financial integration of South East Asian markets has been an important research topic. Due to the recent global developments in financial markets, the behaviours of these emerging markets are gaining much interest. This research paper empirically analyzes stock market integration of international portfolio diversification across the South East Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test has been used to verify the static properties of the market return of ASEAN countries. An analysis of the co-integration among these countries' market return has been done using the Johansen Co-integration Approach. The co-movements between the ASEAN economies were analyzed through the Granger Causality test. The results of the Granger causality tests indicate the interdependence between ASEAN-5 market returns. This suggests a co-movement among ASEAN capital markets, but not all of these ASEAN capital markets were fully integrated. This study also found that the Malaysia Stock Exchange, the Stock Exchange of Thailand, the Singapore Stock Exchange and the Philippines Stock Exchange were fully integrated, but Indonesia Stock Exchange was not. Essentially, this study provides insight for policymakers, portfolio managers, domestic and international investors, risk analysts, and financial researchers to diversify their investment portfolios by combining assets from each ASEAN-5 country.

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the budget deficit in Bangladesh: an econometric analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Mahbub Alam ◽  
Md. Nazmus Sadekin ◽  
Sanjoy Kumar Saha
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the impact of selected macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER), GDP, inflation (INF), the volume of trade (TR) and money supply (M2) on-budget deficit (BD) in Bangladesh over the period of 1980–2018.Design/methodology/approachBy using secondary data, the paper uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality test. Johansen’s cointegration test is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables under study.FindingsJohansen’s cointegration test result shows that there exists a positive long-run relationship of selected macroeconomic variables (real effective exchange rate, inflation, the volume of trade and money supply) with the budget deficit, whereas GDP has a negative one. The short-run results from the VECM show that GDP, inflation and money supply have a negative relationship with the budget deficit. The Granger Causality test results reveal unidirectional causal relationships running from BD to REER; TR to BD; M2 to BD; GDP to REER; M2 to REER; INF to GDP; GDP to TR; M2 to GDP and bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and BD; TR and REER; M2 and TR.Originality/valueBangladesh has been experiencing a budget deficit since 1972 due to a decline in sources of revenue. This study contributes to the empirical debate on the causal nexus between macroeconomic variables and budget deficits by employing VECM and Granger Causality approaches.

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