Investment Banking in 2008 (A): Rise and Fall of the Bear

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
David P. Stowell ◽  
Evan Meagher
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Investment Banking ◽  
Housing Crisis ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Sunday Afternoon ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
The Impact

Gary Parr, deputy chairman of Lazard Freres & Co. and Kellogg class of 1980, could not believe his ears. “You can't mean that,” he said, reacting to the lowered bid given by Doug Braunstein, JP Morgan head of investment banking, for Parr's client, legendary investment bank Bear Stearns. Less than eighteen months after trading at an all-time high of $172.61 a share, Bear now had little choice but to accept Morgan's humiliating $2-per-share, Federal Reserve-sanctioned bailout offer. “I'll have to get back to you.” Hanging up the phone, Parr leaned back and gave an exhausted sigh. Rumors had swirled around Bear ever since two of its hedge funds imploded as a result of the subprime housing crisis, but time and again, the scrappy Bear appeared to have weathered the storm. Parr's efforts to find a capital infusion for the bank had resulted in lengthy discussions and marathon due diligence sessions, but one after another, potential investors had backed away, scared off in part by Bear's sizable mortgage holdings at a time when every bank on Wall Street was reducing its positions and taking massive write-downs in the asset class. In the past week, those rumors had reached a fever pitch, with financial analysts openly questioning Bear's ability to continue operations and its clients running for the exits. Now Sunday afternoon, it had already been a long weekend, and it would almost certainly be a long night, as the Fed-backed bailout of Bear would require onerous negotiations before Monday's market open. By morning, the eighty-five-year-old investment bank, which had survived the Great Depression, the savings and loan crisis, and the dot-com implosion, would cease to exist as an independent firm. Pausing briefly before calling CEO Alan Schwartz and the rest of Bear's board, Parr allowed himself a moment of reflection. How had it all happened?An analysis of the fall of Bear Stearns facilitates an understanding of the difficulties affecting the entire investment banking industry: high leverage, overreliance on short-term financing, excessive risk taking on proprietary trading and asset management desks, and myopic senior management all contributed to the massive losses and loss of confidence. The impact on the global economy was of epic proportions.

Preparing a Multi-Asset Class Portfolio for Shocks to Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Liability Management ◽  
Asset Class ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Real Assets

This article explores shocks to global economic growth and how investors can defend against them. The authors examine the impact of such potential shocks on the asset allocation decision, asset-liability management, and funding sources. This article proposes that the global economy could be poised at an inflection point, and if a regime change occurs it would catch many portfolios off guard. Investors have experienced relatively healthy returns for the last decade, with recency bias leading many investors to creep outward on the risk spectrum. The authors remind the reader that, even in portfolios that appear to be diversified, most of the risk typically comes from equities and equity-like securities, which are greatly exposed to global economic growth risk. To address these concerns, they encourage investors to incorporate economic fundamentals and much longer time horizons into the portfolio construction calculus. Specifically, they argue that true diversification across independent sources of return is the only practical way of reducing exposure to economic growth. The asset classes providing returns independent of the equity market are nominal bonds and real assets (the latter including inflation-indexed bonds) and, for some investors, cash (usually implemented using skill-based assets with a cash-like beta). Many assets marketed as alternatives actually provide equity exposure in disguise.

Washington and Wall Street: The New Deal and Investment Bankers, 1933–1940

1970 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 425-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Carosso
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Investment Banking ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Investment Bankers ◽  
Banking Community ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The New Deal ◽  
American Economy

Professor Carosso analyzes the impact of New Deal legislation upon the nation's investment banking community. Although some adjustments in banking methods resulted, the reforms did not effect any fundamental changes in the position of investment bankers in the American economy.

Investment Banking in 2008 (B): A Brave New World

2017 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
David P. Stowell ◽  
Evan Meagher
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Investment Banking ◽  
The United States ◽  
Wall Street ◽  
Investment Bank ◽  
Holding Companies ◽  
Lehman Brothers ◽  
Equity Ratio ◽  
Proprietary Trading

In recent years Lehman Brothers, one of the five largest investment banks in the United States, had grown increasingly reliant on its fixed income trading and underwriting division, which served as the primary engine for its strong profit growth. The bank had also significantly increased its leverage over the same timeframe, going from a debt-to-equity ratio of 23.7x in 2003 to 35.2x in 2007. As leverage increased, the ongoing erosion of the mortgage-backed industry began to impact Lehman significantly and its stock price plummeted. Unfortunately, public outcry over taxpayer assumption of $29 billion in potential Bear losses made repeating such a move politically untenable. The surreal scene of potential buyers traipsing into an investment bank's headquarters over the weekend to consider various merger or spin-out scenarios repeated itself once again. This time, the Fed refused to back the failing bank's liabilities, attempting instead to play last-minute suitors Bank of America, HSBC, Nomura Securities, and Barclay's off each other, jawboning them by arguing that failing to step up to save Lehman would cause devastating counterparty runs on their own capital positions. The Fed's desperate attempts to arrange its second rescue of a major U.S. investment bank in six months failed when it refused to backstop losses from Lehman's toxic mortgage holdings. Complicating matters was Lehman's reliance on short-term repo loans to finance its balance sheet. Unfortunately, such loans required constant renewal by counterparties, who had grown increasingly nervous that Lehman would lose the ability to make good on its trades. With this sentiment swirling around Wall Street, Lehman was forced to announce the largest Chapter 11 filing in U.S. history, listing assets of $639 billion and liabilities of $768 billion. The second domino had fallen. It would not be the last.This case covers the period from the sale of Bear Stearns to JP Morgan to the conversion into bank holding companies by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, including the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America. The case explains the new global paradigm for the investment banking industry, including increased regulation, fewer competitors, lower leverage, reduced proprietary trading, and-potentially-reduced profits.

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Nazarov ◽  
S. S. Lazaryan ◽  
I. V. Nikonov ◽  
A. I. Votinov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Basic Commodity ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

Structural Modeling of Institute of Entrepreneurship in Russia

2019 ◽  
pp. 34-48
Author(s):  
Svetlana L. Sazanova
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Small And Medium Enterprises ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Pattern Modeling ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Entrepreneurship plays an important role in the modern global economy; the share of products of small and medium enterprises in the gross product and exports not only of the developed but also of developing countries is growing. Innovation processes cover all sectors of the economy, and more and more people are involved in entrepreneurial activity, which contributes to the penetration of entrepreneurial thinking and business values in all areas of the socioeconomic life of society. The Institute of Entrepreneurship plays an increasingly prominent role in the institutional environment of socio-economic systems. This actualizes the problem of studying the relationship of the institution of entrepreneurship with the institutions of law, culture, management. This requires a methodology that allows you to explore the impact on the institute of entrepreneurship not only economic, but also non-economic factors. The methodology of the “old” institutionalism possesses such a tool, it is structural modeling (pattern modeling), which allows to explore the diversity of interrelationships of the institution of entrepreneurship with other components of the institutional and economic environment. The article explored the features of the development of the institution of entrepreneurship in Russia, established the relationship between the institution of entrepreneurship, values, motives and incentives for entrepreneurial activity, built a structural model of the institution of entrepreneurship based on the methodology of the old institutionalism (pattern modeling). The structural model of the institution of entrepreneurship reveals the relationship between the institution of entrepreneurship, the values of entrepreneurial activity, its motives and incentives; as well as the relationship between the institution of entrepreneurship with the institutions of governance, cultural and religious institutions, legal institutions and society.

Asset Management and Investment Banking

CFA Digest ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Emory
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Investment Banking

The impact of exchange rate on price and export of agricultural production

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 9-18
Author(s):  
Rasulov Tulkin Sattarovich ◽  
Khushvaktov Kuvonchbek Ravshanovich
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Agricultural Economics ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
International Trade Laws ◽  
The Impact

In today’s world of swiftly increasing global economy and continuously changing international trade laws and technology exchange rate plays a pivotal role in the production, price formation, export and import of agricultural products. For many years exchange rate as an integral part of agricultural economics has been ignored. The present study was intended to investigate exchange rate as an impacting factor on the agricultural production. It also considers the researches that have been carried about the impact of the exchange rate on prices and export of agricultural products, theirs analyses and how much impact it has in the situation of Uzbekistan.

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