Determining a reasonable concession period for risky transportation BOT projects with government subsidies based on cumulative prospect theory

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Guo ◽  
Junlin Chen ◽  
Yujie Xie
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Traffic Volume ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Government Subsidy ◽  
Contingency Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Subsidies ◽  
Concession Period ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper explores the impact of both government subsidies and decision makers' loss-averse behavior on the determination of transportation build-operate-transfer (BOT) concession periods based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT). The prospect value of a transportation project under traffic risk can be formulated according to the value function for gains and losses and the decision weight for gains and losses. As an extra income for investors, government subsidy is designed for highly risky aspects of BOT transportation projects: uncertain initial traffic volumes and fluctuating growth rates.Design/methodology/approachA decision-making model determining the concession period of a transportation BOT project is proposed by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method based on CPT, and the effects of risky behaviors of private investors on concession period decision making are analyzed. A subsidy method related to the internal rate-of-return (IRR) corresponding to a specific initial traffic volume and growth rate is proposed. The case of an actual BOT highway project is examined to illustrate how the method proposed can be used to determine the concession period of a transportation BOT project considering decision makers' loss-averse behavior and government subsidy. Contingency analysis is discussed to cope with possible misestimating of key factors such as initial traffic volume and cost coefficients. Sensitivity analysis is employed to investigate the impact of CPT parameters on the concession period decisions. An actual BOT case which failed to attract private capital is introduced to show the practical application. The results are then interpreted to conclude this paper.FindingsBased on comparisons drawn between a concession period decision-making model considering the psychological behaviors of decision makers and a model not considering them, the authors conclude that the concession period based on CPT is distinctly different from that of the loss-neutral model. The concession period based on CPT is longer than the loss-neutral concession period. That is, loss-averse private investors tend to ask for long concession periods to make up for losses they will face in the future. Government subsidies serve as extra income for investors, allowing appointed profits to be secured sooner. For the benefit side of contingency variables, the normal state of initial traffic volume, average annual traffic growth rate and bias degree and the government subsidy need to be paid close attention during the project life span. For the cost side of contingency variables, the annual operating cost variable has a significant impact on the length of predicted concession period, while the large-scale cost variable has minor impact.Originality/valueWith an actual BOT highway project, the determination of transportation BOT concession periods based on the psychological behaviors of decision makers is analyzed in this paper. As the psychological behaviors of decision makers heavily impact the decision-making process, the authors analyze their impacts on concession period decision making. Government subsidy is specifically designed for various states of initial traffic volume and fluctuating growth rates to cope with corresponding high risks and mitigate private investors' loss-averse behaviors. Contingency analysis and sensitivity analysis are discussed as the estimated values of parameters may not be authentic in actual situations.

Fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making to identify the order of establishing temporary logistics hubs during disaster response

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajali Maharjan ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Numerical Illustration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Post Disaster

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the importance of the order of establishment of temporary logistics hubs (TLHs) when resources (mobile storage units used as TLHs) are limited and to present the development and implementation of a methodology that determines the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making. Design/methodology/approach It employed a decision support system that considers multiple decision makers and subjective attributes, while also addressing the impreciseness inherent in post-disaster decision making for ordering the establishment of TLHs. To do so, an optimization model was combined with a fuzzy multi-attribute group decision making approach. A numerical illustration was performed using data from the April 2015 Nepal Earthquake. Findings The results showed the location and order of establishment of TLHs, and demonstrated the impact of decision makers’ opinions on the overall ordering. Research limitations/implications The study does not discuss the uncertain nature of the location problem and the potential need for relocation of TLHs. Practical implications This methodology offers managerial insights for post-disaster decision making when resources are limited and their effective utilization is vital. The results highlight the importance of considering the opinions of multiple actors/decision makers to enable coordination and avoid complication between the growing numbers of humanitarian responders during disaster response. Originality/value This study introduces the concept of the order of establishment of TLHs and demonstrates its importance when resources are limited. It develops and implements a methodology determining the order of establishment of TLHs to support post-disaster decision making.

Stressed decision makers and use of decision aids: a literature review and conceptual model

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 710-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Adya ◽  
Gloria Phillips-Wren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Perceived Stress ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Quality ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Decision making is inherently stressful since the decision maker must choose between potentially conflicting alternatives with unique hazards and uncertain outcomes. Whereas decision aids such as decision support systems (DSS) can be beneficial in stressful scenarios, decision makers sometimes misuse them during decision making, leading to suboptimal outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between stress, decision making and decision aid use. Design/methodology/approach The authors conduct an extensive multi-disciplinary review of decision making and DSS use through the lens of stress and examine how stress, as perceived by decision makers, impacts their use or misuse of DSS even when such aids can improve decision quality. Research questions examine underlying sources of stress in managerial decision making that influence decision quality, relationships between a decision maker’s perception of stress, DSS use/misuse, and decision quality, and implications for research and practice on DSS design and capabilities. Findings The study presents a conceptual model that provides an integrative behavioral view of the impact of a decision maker’s perceived stress on their use of a DSS and the quality of their decisions. The authors identify critical knowledge gaps and propose a research agenda to improve decision quality and use of DSS by considering a decision maker’s perceived stress. Originality/value This study provides a previously unexplored view of DSS use and misuse as shaped by the decision and job stress experienced by decision makers. Through the application of four theories, the review and its findings highlight key design principles that can mitigate the negative effects of stressors on DSS use.

The role of blockchain in reducing the impact of barriers to humanitarian supply chain management

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ihsan Ozdemir ◽  
Ismail Erol ◽  
Ilker Murat Ar ◽  
Iskender Peker ◽  
Ali Asgary ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chain Management ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Humanitarian Supply Chain ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe objective of this study is to investigate the role of blockchain in reducing the impact of barriers to humanitarian supply chain management (HSCM) using a list of blockchain benefits.Design/methodology/approachA decision aid was used to explore the suitability of blockchain in humanitarian supply chains. To achieve that, first, a list of barriers to HSCM was identified. Then, the intuitionistic fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (IF–DEMATEL) method was utilized to determine the relationships and the level of interdependencies among the criteria. Finally, the intuitionistic fuzzyanalytic network process (IF–ANP) technique was employed, as it successfully handles dependencies among the criteria.FindingsThe findings of this study suggest that interorganizational barriers are the most suitable ones, the impacts of which blockchain may alleviate. This study further suggests that trust turned out to be the most significant benefit criterion for the analysis.Research limitations/implicationsThe readers should construe the findings of this study with caution since it was carried out using the data collected from the experts of a particular country. Moreover, the proposed decision aid contemplates a limited set of criteria to assess a possible role of blockchain in overcoming the barriers to HSCM.Practical implicationsThe findings of this study can assist humanitarian supply chain managers to make more judicious assessments on whether they implement the blockchain in humanitarian supply chain operations. Specifically, this research may help decision makers to identify the certain barriers, the impact of which may be reduced by using the blockchain. The findings of this research will also help various decision makers make more rational decisions and allocate their resources more effectively.Originality/valueTo the best of authors’ knowledge, no single study exists to investigate the role of blockchain in reducing the impact of barriers to HSCM using an intuitionistic fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach.

Are firms like fair-weathered fans? Examining decision-making in B2B relationships

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan A. Jensen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Football Clubs ◽  
Confounding Variables ◽  
B2b Relationships ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Business To Business

Purpose While numerous studies have investigated the returns firms receive for their investments in sponsorship, no study to date has examined the potential for organizational performance to contribute to the continuance of business to business (B2B) relationships. Thus, this study aims to illuminate B2B sponsorship relationships in isolating whether firm decision-makers are like fair-weathered fans, in that they are more likely to stick with successful organizations. Design/methodology/approach An advanced quantitative modeling approach, survival analysis, is applied to a data set of more than 350 sponsorships to isolate the impact of performance on B2B decision-making. Findings Even after controlling for several potentially confounding variables, results indicate that every point per game earned by English football clubs decreases the probability of the sponsoring firm exiting the agreement by 54.4%. Originality/value These findings provide empirical evidence of the impact of the sponsored organization’s performance to influence B2B firm decision-making, a novel finding yet to be confirmed in the sponsorship-linked marketing literature.

The impact of heuristic and herding biases on portfolio construction and performance: the case of Greece

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nektarios Gavrilakis ◽  
Christos Floros
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Portfolio Construction ◽  
Investment Portfolio ◽  
Content Type ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
Investment Portfolios ◽  
Performance Satisfaction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify whether heuristic and herding biases influence portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The current research determines the situation among investors in Greece, a country with several economic problems for the last decade.Design/methodology/approachA survey has been conducted covering a group of active private investors. The relationship between private investors' behavior and portfolio construction and performance was tested using a multiple regression.FindingsThe authors find that heuristic variable affects private investor's portfolio construction and performance satisfaction level positively. A robustness test on a second group, consisting of professional investors, reveals that heuristic and herding biases affect investment behavior when constructing a portfolio.Practical implicationsThe authors recommend investors to select professional's investment portfolio tools in constructing investment portfolios and avoid excessive errors, which occur due to heuristic. The awareness and understanding of heuristic and herding could be helpful for professionals and decision-makers in financial institutions by improving their performance resulting in more efficient markets.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this paper lies in the fact that it is the first study on two major behavioral dimensions that affect the investor's portfolio construction and performance in Greece. The rationale of the current research is that the results are helpful for investors in order to take rational, reliable and profitable decisions.

scholarly journals Citizens’ participation in financing national projects (an applied study on the enlargement of the Suez Canal of Egypt)

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeinab Abbas Zaazou
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Citizen Participation ◽  
Public Service ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Suez Canal ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between citizen participation and the level of trust in government’s decisions and policies; as well as examining the impact of disclosure of information on the level of citizens’ engagement with governments’ projects. In addition, testing the real motives behind Egyptian citizens’ participation in financing national projects. The study is applied to the “New Suez Canal,” which was finished in only one year opposing the three years implementation period suggested by some studies. Design/methodology/approach The researcher depended on secondary and primary data as well in working on this paper. She used secondary data gathered from scholars and from domestic and international institutions. Then, she conducted a field study and collected data through distributing 384 Likert Scale questionnaires containing 34 self-administered among respondents to test the following: 1. Citizens perceptions regarding the level of trust in government’s decisions and policies. 2. The impact of citizens’ trust on their willingness to participate in governments’ projects. 3. Is ‘public service motivation’ (PSM) behind citizens’ willingness of participating in national projects. 4. Is the ‘high expected profit of Suez Canal Investment Certificates’ behind citizens participation in national projects. Findings H1 and H2 have been accepted as trust, transparency and citizen participation proved to be important pillars of building a participatory government. Moreover, citizens’ participation in national projects encouraged national and international enterprises to invest in the canal provision. H3 and H4 are accepted and the statistical study revealed dual contradicting results regarding the motive of citizens’ financial participation in the New Suez Canal project. The justification for the contradiction is that right after the 2011 up-rise, Egyptian citizens were overwhelmed with patriot emotions and feelings pushing them to participate in national projects. At the same time this patriot drive was moderated by the “performance-based rewards and citizens” self-interests’ pushed by the Egyptian government (offering a high-interest rate for Suez Canal Certificates at that time). Citizens might be motivated to participate in national projects triggered by many factors: public service drive – patriotism or self-interest. Research limitations/implications The study needs further deeper investigation and empirical pieces of evidence to answer the following questions: would different participatory actions result differently in other circumstances? Do individuals’ levels of PSM vary over time? Besides, the researcher needs to find ways to test PSM against various motives such as self-interest, which needs to be confirmed empirically. Practical implications The author came up with important recommendations for central government and decision-makers in Egypt and is based upon the study’s statistical results. The most important recommendations were: central government and decision-makers should frame a policy designed to promote citizens’ participation in decision-making drawing on the guidelines for civil participation in political decision-making. Decision-makers in the central government should work local and regional authorities to update and improve local and regional regulations concerning the participation of citizens in local public life and promote a culture of democratic participation shared by communities and local authorities. Performance-based rewards (high-interest rate) are moderating the citizens’ public service motivation (PSM – patriot sense) and citizens may be motivated by different factors such as public service drive – patriotism or self-interest. Social implications The study is tackling an important issue, which is civil participation in political decision-making. It is also discussing promoting cultural awareness regarding the importance of democratic participation shared by communities and local authorities. The study came up with certain findings proving Egyptian civil society’s willingness in participating with the government in national projects; believing in its socio-economic benefits. Originality/value Finally, the study is of value, as it could be considered a pilot study representing the outcomes of citizen participation in national projects; in addition, it can be considered as a road map to policymakers. Moreover, the findings provide a set of recommendations and policies for governments and decision-makers to undertake tangible actions to accelerate citizen participation in further projects and decisions and be able to establish a democratic system in developing countries.

The hidden power of language

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-206
Author(s):  
Philipp Hummel ◽  
Jacob Hörisch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Cost Reduction ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Social Aspect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Accounting ◽  
Cost Reductions

Purpose Stakeholder theory research identifies changes in language as one possible mechanism to overcome the deficiencies of current accounting practices with regard to social aspects. This study aims to examine the effects of the terms used for specific accounts on company internal decision-making, drawing on the example of “value creation accounting”. Design/methodology/approach The study uses a survey based-experiment to analyze the effects of terms used for specific accounts on decision-making, with a focus on social aspects (in particular expenditures for staff) in cost reduction and expenditure decisions. Findings The findings indicate that wordings, which more closely relate to value creation than to costs, decrease cost reductions and increase the priority ascribed to the social aspect of reducing staff costs in times of financial shortage. The effects of terms used on cost reductions are stronger among female decision makers. Practical implications The analysis suggests that conventional accounting language best suits organizations that aim at incentivizing decision makers to primarily cut costs. By contrast, if an organization follows an approach that puts importance on social aspects in times of financial shortage and on not doing too sharp cost reductions, value creation-oriented language is the more effective approach. Social implications The study suggests that the specific terminology used for accounts should be chosen more carefully and with awareness for the possible effects on cost reduction decisions as well as on social consequences. Originality/value This study contributes to a better understanding of the relevance of language in accounting. It suggests that the terms used for accounts should be chosen purposefully because of their far-reaching potential consequences for stakeholders as well as for the organization.

Understanding how the contextual variables influence political behaviour in strategic decision-making

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Elbanna ◽  
Ioannis C. Thanos ◽  
Vassilis M. Papadakis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Strategic Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Behaviour ◽  
Practitioner Education ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to enhance the knowledge of the antecedents of political behaviour. Whereas political behaviour in strategic decision-making (SDM) has received sustained interest in the literature, empirical examination of its antecedents has been meagre. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a constructive replication to examine the impact of three layers of context, namely, decision, firm and environment, on political behaviour. In Study 1, Greece, we gathered data on 143 strategic decisions, while in Study 2, Egypt, we collected data on 169 strategic decisions. Findings – The evidence suggests that both decision-specific and firm factors act as antecedents to political behaviour, while environmental factors do not. Practical implications – The findings support enhanced practitioner education regarding political behaviour and provide practitioners with a place from which to start by identifying the factors which might influence the occurrence of political behaviour in SDM. Originality/value – The paper fills important gaps in the existing research on the influence of context on political behaviour and delineates interesting areas for further research.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

Decision rules, escalation of commitment and sensitivity to framing in group decision-making

2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1649-1668 ◽  
Author(s):  
Petru Lucian Curseu ◽  
Sandra G. L. Schruijer ◽  
Oana Catalina Fodor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rule ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Escalation Of Commitment ◽  
Group Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test the influence of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to framing effect (FE) and escalation of commitment (EOC). Design/methodology/approach – In an experimental study (using a sample of 233 professionals with project management experience), the authors test the effects of collaborative and consultative decision rules on groups’ sensitivity to EOC and FE. The authors use four group decision-making tasks to evaluate decision consistency across gain/loss framed decision situations and six decision tasks to evaluate EOC for money as well as time as resources previously invested in the initial decisions. Findings – The results show that the collaborative decision rule increases sensitivity to EOC when financial resources are involved and decreases sensitivity to EOC when time is of essence. Moreover, the authors show that the collaborative decision rule decreases sensitivity to FE in group decision making. Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for group rationality as an emergent group level competence by extending the insights concerning the impact of decision rules on emergent group level cognitive competencies. Due to the experimental nature of the design, the authors can probe the causal relations between the investigated variables, yet the authors cannot generalize the results to other settings. Practical implications – Managers can use the insights of this study in order to optimize the functioning of decision-making groups and to reduce their sensitivity to FEs and EOC. Originality/value – The study extends the research on group rationality and it is one of the few experimental attempts used to understand the role of decision rules on emergent group level rationality.

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