A new stochastic multi source approach to improve the accuracy of the sales forecasts

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia Cassettari ◽  
Ilaria Bendato ◽  
Marco Mosca ◽  
Roberto Mosca
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Practical Utilization ◽  
Probability Of Error ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sales Forecasts

Purpose The aim of this paper is to suggest a new approach to the problem of sales forecasting for improving forecast accuracy. The proposed method is capable of combining, by means of appropriate weights, both the responses supplied by the best-performing conventional algorithms, which base their output on historical data, and the insights of company’s forecasters which should take account future events that are impossible to predict with traditional mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a six-step methodology using multiple forecasting sources. Each of these forecasts, to consider the uncertainty of the variables involved, is expressed in the form of suitable probability density function. A proper use of the Monte Carlo Simulation allows obtaining the best fit among these different sources and to obtain a value of forecast accompanied by a probability of error known a priori. Findings The proposed approach allows the company’s demand forecasters to provide timely response to market dynamics and make a choice of weights, gradually ever more accurate, triggering a continuous process of forecast improvement. The application on a real business case proves the validity and the practical utilization of the methodology. Originality/value Forecast definition is normally entrusted to the company’s demand forecasters who often may radically modify the information suggested by the conventional prediction algorithms or, contrarily, can be too influenced by their output. This issue is the origin of the methodological approach proposed that aims to improve the forecast accuracy merging, with appropriate weights and taking into account the stochasticity involved, the outputs of sales forecast algorithms with the contributions of the company’s forecasters.

Assessing emphasis gaps among MBA alumni: a model framework

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-51
Author(s):  
Stuart Van Auken ◽  
Earl Chrysler ◽  
Ludmilla Gricenko Wells
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Mba Programs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Program Delivery ◽  
Mba Program ◽  
One Year

Purpose This paper aims to focus on Master of Business Administration (MBA) alumni and their ability to provide institution-specific insights into MBA program delivery. Given desired MBA positioning dimensions, a case exemplar is used to reveal gaps between “should have” program emphases and “actual” emphases. Departures from expectations are used to reveal either under- or over-emphases which require repair. Design/methodology/approach The study develops a gap assessment procedure and the theory of gaps, and it presents insights into the prioritization of gaps for closing through the revelation of gap themes of varying magnitude. It also reveals the benefits and the limitations of emphasis-based gap assessments. Additionally, the study addresses the complexity of creating the dimensional structure for MBA program gap revelation. Findings This paper reports on the issues of framing dimensions, including the possibility of dimensional omissions, with a particular emphasis on the utilization of an emphasis-based gap model within an a priori identified structure. Practical implications The methodological approach provides a blueprint for additional program review, and it produces a strong structural base for MBA program positioning. It is also is particularly important in evaluating newly created one-year MBA programs. Originality/value The work reveals the potential for the revelation of both under- and over-emphases in MBA program delivery and the possible issue of sub-optimization in gap closing (i.e. the closing of one gap while opening another).

Analysis and determination of mechanical bearing load caused by unbalanced magnetic pull

2016 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 728-743 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Ruf ◽  
Michael Schröder ◽  
Aryanti Kusuma Putri ◽  
Roman Konrad ◽  
David Franck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Fe Model ◽  
Drive Cycle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unbalanced Magnetic Pull ◽  
Bearing Load ◽  
Force Components ◽  
Operating Points

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the mechanical bearing load caused by the unbalanced magnetic pull (UMP), which is studied in detail. The applied approach is based on an analysis of static and dynamic eccentricities at different positions and different amplitudes. The influence of the operating points is calculated to show the effective bearing load for machines operating at different speeds. The decreasing lifetime of the applied bearings is examined and evaluated in detail. Design/methodology/approach – To evaluate the proposed methodology a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) with buried magnets is used. To consider effects of slotting and saturation, a finite element (FE) model is employed. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine the most likely amplitudes of the eccentricities. Calculating the UMP for all possible operating points using a control strategy for the machine and coupling this results with a drive cycle, determines the effective force acting on the bearing. Findings – It has been shown that the position of the eccentricity has a not significant influence on the behavior of the UMP and may therefore be neglected. The amplitude of the eccentricity vector influences the amplitude of the UMP including all harmonic force components. For technical relevant eccentricities, the influence is approximately linear for the average and the dominant harmonics of the UMP. In most cases, it is sufficient to displace the rotor at an arbitrary position and amplitude. It is sufficient to simulate one type of eccentricity (static or dynamic) with an arbitrary value of displacement (rotor or stator) to evaluate all possible airgap unbalances. Using stochastic simulations of the eccentricity amplitudes enables an a priori design and lifetime estimation of bearings. Originality/value – This paper gives a close insight on the effect of mechanical bearing load caused by rotor eccentricities. The effect of the position of the eccentricity vector, the operational range and a drive cycle are considered. A stochastic simulation and an empirical lifetime model of one bearing gives an example of using this methodological approach.

Hotel revenue management forecasting accuracy: the hidden impact of booking windows

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Webb ◽  
Zvi Schwartz ◽  
Zheng Xiang ◽  
Mehmet Altin
Keyword(s):  
Revenue Management ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Behavior Changes ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe pace of booking is a critical element in the accuracy of revenue management (RM) systems. Anecdotal evidence suggests that booking windows exhibit persistent shifts due to a variety of macro and micro factors. The article outlines several causes and tests the impact of the shifts on forecasting accuracy.Design/methodology/approachA novel methodological approach is utilized to empirically shift hotel reservation windows into smaller increments. Forecasts are then estimated and tested on the incremental shifts with popular RM techniques characteristic of advance booking data. A random effects model assesses the impact of the shifts on forecast accuracy.FindingsThe results show that shifts in booking behavior can cause the accuracy of forecasting models to deteriorate. The findings stress the importance of considering these shifts in model estimation and evaluation.Practical implicationsThe results demonstrate that changes in booking behavior can be detrimental to the accuracy of RM forecasting algorithms. It is recommended that revenue managers monitor booking window shifts when forecasting with advanced booking data.Originality/valueThis study is the first to systematically assess the impact of booking window shifts on forecasting accuracy. The demonstrated approach can be implemented in future research to assess model accuracy as booking behavior changes.

Spatial filtering of signals with spectrum overlapping

2019 ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
M. E. Shevchenko ◽  
A. V. Gorovoy ◽  
S. N. Solovyov
Keyword(s):  
Antenna Arrays ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Spatial Filtering ◽  
Spatial Filter ◽  
Radio Sources ◽  
Probability Of Error ◽  
Shift Keying ◽  
A Priori Uncertainty

The paper considers the spatial filtering methods of signals with spectrum overlapping under conditions of a priori uncertainty of the directions of arrival from radio sources. The estimates of the directions of signals arrival obtained by ESPRIT or MUSIC are used in order to build a spatial filter. It is shown that when using ESPRIT, unlike MUSIC, an additional calculations of filter coefficients based on estimates of the directions of signals arrival are not required, and the quadrature components of the signals are formed simultaneously with estimates of the direction of their arrival. The probability of error performances of minimum shift keying signals which were divided by spatial filtering on the basis of ESPRIT and MUSIC using seven-element circular and angular antenna arrays are given.

Rationales of gender diversity management policies and practices in India: an exploratory empirical study in the Indian IT/ITeS industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 667-688
Author(s):  
Shreyashi Chakraborty ◽  
Leena Chatterjee
Keyword(s):  
Survey Methodology ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Diversity Management ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Context ◽  
Management Policies ◽  
Policies And Practices

PurposeThe Indian context is marked with weak anti-discrimination laws and patchy implementation of protection of civil rights of women at workplaces. The purpose of this paper is to unearth the rationales of the adoption of gender diversity management policies and practices in India, in the absence of laws and regulations.Design/methodology/approachInspiration is drawn from previous studies on diversity management in other national contexts, and a survey methodology was adopted. The lead researcher administered the questionnaires personally to all respondents to ensure that the understanding of the questions is uniform across respondents as gender diversity management is a relatively new concept in India.FindingsSize of the organisation (number of full-time employees), the influence of external organisations and perceived enhanced organisational flexibility were found to explain the adoption of gender diversity management policies and practices in the Indian IT/ITeS industry. Findings also indicate that Indian subsidiaries of foreign multinationals tend to adopt more gender diversity management policies and practices as compared to Indian-owned organisations.Research implicationsThis study provides evidence that organisations do not always enact structures or behaviours in the pursuit of normative rationality and also consider the economic value of them, establishing an organisational agency in adopting legitimated norms or practices. The study also shows that gender diversity management policies and practices are not only dependent on the enactment of laws but also are adopted because of the economic benefit perceived.Originality/valueDiversity management policies and practices have been mostly studied in national contexts with anti-discrimination laws or affirmative action programs and have been claimed to be a successor of equal employment opportunity (EEO) policies. In the absence of stringent laws to reduce or eliminate discrimination against women employees in Indian workplaces, this study contributes to the literature by determining whether the business case for gender diversity drives the adoption of gender diversity management in the Indian context.

Examination of customer-centric measures among different types of customers in the context of major Canadian ski resort

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 438-459
Author(s):  
Matti J. Haverila ◽  
Kai Christian Haverila
Keyword(s):  
Customer Satisfaction ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Marketing Practice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ski Resort ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Managerial Implications ◽  
Satisfaction Model

Purpose Customer-centric measures such as customer satisfaction and repurchase intent are important indicators of performance. The purpose of this paper is to examine what is the strength and significance of the path coefficients in a customer satisfaction model consisting of various customer-centric measures for different types of ski resort customer (i.e. day, weekend and ski holiday visitors as well as season pass holders) in a ski resort in Canada. Design/methodology/approach The results were analyzed using the partial least squares structural equation modeling approach for the four different types ski resort visitors. Findings There appeared to differences in the strength and significance in the customer satisfaction model relationships for the four types of ski resort visitors indicating that the a priori managerial classification of the ski resort visitors is warranted. Originality/value The research pinpoints differences in the strength and significance in the relationships between customer-centric measures for four different types ski resort visitors, i.e. day, weekend and ski holiday visitors as well as season pass holders, which have significant managerial implications for the marketing practice of the ski resort.

scholarly journals Green business models in the construction sector: an analysis of outcomes and benefits

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amal Abuzeinab ◽  
Mohammed Arif ◽  
Mohd. Asim Qadri ◽  
Dennis Kulonda
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Construction Sector ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Green Business ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Green business models (GBMs) in the construction sector represent the logic of green value creation and capture. Hence, the call to examine GBMs is growing ever louder. The aim of this paper is to identify benefits of GBMs by adopting five essential elements of the GBM from the literature: green value proposition; target group; key activities; key resources (KR); and financial logic. Design/methodology/approach In all, 19 semi-structured interviews are conducted with construction sector practitioners and academics in the UK. Thematic analysis is used to obtain benefits of GBMs. Further, the interpretive ranking process (IRP) is used to examine which elements of the GBM have a dominant role in providing benefits to construction businesses. Findings The benefits are grouped into three themes: credibility/reputation benefits; financial benefits; and long-term viability benefits. The IRP model shows that the element of KR is the most important when evaluated against these three benefit themes. Practical implications Linking GBM elements and benefits will help companies in the construction sector to analyse the business case of embracing environmental sustainability. Originality/value This research is one of the few empirical academic works investigating the benefits of GBMs in the construction sector. The IRP method is a novel contribution to GBMs and construction research.

Gender diversity and innovation in mining – a corpus-based discourse analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 359-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ylva Fältholm ◽  
Cathrine Norberg
Keyword(s):  
Discourse Analysis ◽  
Gender Diversity ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Diversity Management ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gender Patterns ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this study is to gain increased knowledge about gender diversity and innovation in mining by analyzing how women are discursively represented in relation to these two concepts, and in doing so establish how diversity management is received and communicated in the industry. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on analysis of texts including references to gender diversity and innovation in mining found on the web. The tool used to retrieve the data has been WebCorpLive, a tool designed for linguistic analysis of web material. Findings Although increased female representation is communicated as a key component in the diversity management discourse, based on the idea that diversity increases innovation and creativity, closer analysis of texts on diversity and innovation in mining shows that what women are expected to contribute with has little explicit connection with innovation. Research limitations/implications The study contributes with increased knowledge about diversity management by providing an example of how it is received in a traditionally male-dominated industry. Practical implications The findings indicate that for diversity management to have a real effect in mining, it needs to be based on gender equality and social justice motives, rather than on a business case rationale – the principal motive today. To enable this change, stereotypical gender patterns, as shown in this study, need to be made visible and problematized among policy makers, practitioners and actors on all levels of the industry. Originality value The study contributes with new knowledge about gender in the mining industry previously not attended to by using a method which so far has been sparsely used in discourse analysis, although pointed out as promising.

Knowledge management for library building design

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 2-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhixian Yi
Keyword(s):  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Tacit Knowledge ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Design Principles ◽  
Design Strategies ◽  
Innovative Design ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – In the digital age, constant changes in libraries inform contemporary building design. An innovative library building design is a complicated process and can be viewed as a continuous process of the use of tacit and explicit knowledge and innovative tools and approaches. Knowledge management (KM) can bring about the much needed innovation, and transform tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge. For the design of a library to be successful, it is necessary to apply KM to library building design. The purpose of this paper is to look at key change impacts, to explore how to manage knowledge in building design and to identify key design principles. Design/methodology/approach – This paper looks at key change impacts, explores how to manage knowledge in library building design and pinpoints design principles. Findings – This paper finds that KM can be vital to library building design, and it can be used in all stages: to examine the internal and external environments, transform tacit knowledge to explicit knowledge by using portals, and analyze existing and future issues and trends. When effectively used, KM will result in innovative design strategies and also will reduce the time and costs of the building design and plan processes. The main principles of library building design are flexibility, accessibility, safety and security, applicability, adaptability, efficiency, and sustainability. Practical implications – This paper provides a useful overview of how to manage knowledge in library building design and design principles. Originality/value – The views, discussions, and suggestions will be of value to improve the effectiveness of library building design.

scholarly journals “Happy slaves”? The adaptation problem and identity politics in the writings of Amartya Sen

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (12) ◽  
pp. 1178-1193
Author(s):  
Tony Burns
Keyword(s):  
Identity Politics ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Mary Wollstonecraft ◽  
Amartya Sen ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between Amartya Sen’s notion of adaptation and his views on identity politics by focussing on the issue of slavery and, more specifically, on the example of the happy or contented slave. Design/methodology/approach The paper is text based. The methodological approach adopted is that of conceptual analysis, as is typical for work of this kind. Findings The paper concludes that the example of the happy or contented slave is indeed a fruitful one for those interested in exploring the relationship between Sen’s views on “the adaptation problem” and his views on identity politics, especially in relation to the subjection of women. Here Sen’s debt to the ideas of Mary Wollstonecraft and John Stuart Mill is particularly important. Research limitations/implications One implication of the argument of the paper is that there is a need to consider more carefully the differences that exist between the views of Wollstonecraft and Mill, so far as the example of the happy or contented slave is concerned. Practical implications One practical implication of the paper is that, hopefully, it establishes the continued relevance of the ideas of thinkers such as Wollstonecraft and Mill today, not least because of the influence that they have had on theoreticians such as Amartya Sen. Social implications The paper addresses issues which are of considerable social and political significance, especially for women in underdeveloped societies today. Originality/value The example of the happy or contented slave has not received much discussion in the literature on Sen, although Sen himself has suggested that the distinction between happiness and contentment is an important one, which does merit further discussion.

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