Economic impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural production in the Middle East and North Africa region

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 463-472 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed Alboghdady ◽  
Salah E. El-Hendawy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Cent Increase ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production in Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) where the deleterious impacts of climate change are generally projected to be greatest. Design/methodology/approach The study used a production function model using Fixed Effect Regression (FER) analysis and then using marginal impact analysis to assess the impact of climate change and variability on agricultural production. Therefore, the study utilized panel data for the period 1961-2009 pooled from 20 countries in MENA region. Findings Results showed that 1 per cent increase in temperature during winter resulted in 1.12 per cent decrease in agricultural production. It was also observed that 1 per cent increase in temperature variability during winter and spring resulted in 0.09 and 0.14 per cent decrease in agricultural production, respectively. Results also indicated that increasing precipitation during winter and fall season and precipitation variability during winter and summer seasons had negative impact. The estimated parameters of square temperature and precipitation indicated that climate change has significant nonlinear impacts on agricultural production in MENA region. Originality/value Despite there are many studies on the impact of climate change on agricultural production, there is a lack of publications to address the economic impact of both climate change and variability on agricultural production in MENA region. Thus, these results are more comprehensive and more informative to policymakers than the results from field trials.

scholarly journals Diversification or specialisation? Farmers' cropping strategy and economic performance under climate change in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mingze Wu ◽  
Yueji Zhu ◽  
Qi Yang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Technical Efficiency ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Farmers' adaptation strategies in agricultural production are required to minimise the negative impact of climate change on a nation's food production in developing countries. Based on the panel data of the provincial level in China from 2000 to 2017, this study aims to analyse the changing climate over recent years and farmers' adaptation strategy in terms of cropping in agricultural production. Design/methodology/approach This study uses Simpson's diversity index (SDI) to measure the degree of crop diversity planted by farmers and evaluate the influence of climate change on farmers' cropping strategy using the fixed-effect model. Further, the authors estimate the impact of farmers' cropping strategy on their economic performances in two aspects including yields and technical efficiency of crops. Findings The empirical results show that the overall climate appears a warming trend. Different from farmers in some other countries, Chinese farmers tend to adopt a more specialised cropping strategy which can significantly improve the technical efficiency and yields of crops in agriculture. In addition, as a moderating role, the specialised cropping can help farmers to alleviate the negative impact of climate change on technical efficiency of their crops. Originality/value First, previous studies showed that the changing climate influenced farmers' adaptation strategies, while most studies focussed on multiple adaptation strategies from the farm-level perspective rather than cropping strategy from the nation-level perspective. Second, the present study investigates how the cropping strategy affects the economic performance (in terms of the technical efficiency and crop yields) of agricultural production. Third, the stochastic frontier analysis method is used to estimate the technical efficiency. Fourth, this study explores the moderating effect between farmers' cropping strategy and technical efficiency by introducing an interaction item of SDI and accumulated temperature.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achenafi Teklay ◽  
Yihun T. Dile ◽  
Dereje H. Asfaw ◽  
Haimanote K Bayabil ◽  
Kibruyesfa Sisay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lake Tana Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

scholarly journals Climate Change Mitigation and Social Sustainability in Agriculture in the Sub Himalaya Region

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-22
Author(s):  
Tarun Kumar Das ◽  
Biman Maity ◽  
Kausik Pradhan ◽  
Bablu Ganguly
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Structure Interview ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Cropping Pattern ◽  
Agricultural Producers ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Four Blocks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The present study was conducted in sub-Himalaya region of India where in the two districts of the region such as Cooch Behar and Malda districts are selectively selected for the study. Four blocks in the selected districts were randomly selected. In each block, one village was selected for the study. An exhaustive list of agricultural producers in each village was prepared and from this list, eighty agricultural producers were randomly selected. The data were collected with the help of structure interview schedule through personal interview methods. The climate change aberration in socio-cultural milieu was delineated in terms of mitigation strategy of climate change discourses, the impact of climate change on agricultural production and education is considered as predicted variables and other six nos. of attributes of socio-economic and cognitive attributes of the agricultural producer were considered as predictor variables for the study. Data were processed into statistical tools i.e. frequency, percentage, correlation analysis and regression analysis. It was found that education and farm size are positively and significantly associated with the awareness and knowledge on climate change. Results reveal that the variables farming experience and farm size are negatively and significantly contributing towards the impacts of climate change on education. It was seen that farming experience is negatively and significantly contributing towards impacts of climate change on agricultural production. The finding reveals that 88.75% of the farmers had modified their cropping pattern including the scientific cultivation practices to adapt the impact of climate change.

Extreme weather highlights longer-term Canada concerns

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Focused Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Extreme Cold ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ways Of Life ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Significance The extreme cold comes as the province is still dealing with the damage caused by unprecedented levels of heat and wildfires last summer and then record levels of rainfall and flooding in November. Its experience has focused attention on Canada’s wider vulnerability to the impact of shifting weather patterns and climate change. Impacts The natural resource sectors that are vital to Canada’s economy face an increasingly difficult environment for extraction. Indigenous peoples across the country will see their traditional ways of life further disrupted by climate change. The increasingly evident impacts of climate change on day-to-day life will see voters demand greater action from government. Significant investment in green initiatives, clean energy and climate resiliency initiatives will boost green industries.

Issues of Climate Change, Impact, and Adaptation Strategies in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
pp. 591-603
Author(s):  
Nwakor Flora Ngozi ◽  
Amadi C. Okey ◽  
Okwusi Moses Chukwunwike ◽  
Adiele Ezekiel Chinyere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Post Harvest ◽  
Crop Varieties ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is a global problem affecting agricultural production, a good adaptation strategy for this phenomena should be sought for increase agricultural production. The study was conducted in Nigeria to assess the Impact of Climate Change on root and tuber crops production among farmers in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for the study, they were collected from NRCRI Umudike and other individual publications. The result shows that climate change had negative impact on root and tubers crops production including potato. Adaptation of Agriculture to climate change in the areas of crop and animal production, post harvest activities and capacity building, divers friction of livelihood sources through the use of different farming methods and improved agricultural practices will help to reduce the impact of climate change. Examples are establishment of forestry, generation of improved and disease resistance crop varieties addition of value into agricultural products and post harvest activities for climate change adaptation and sustainable development.

scholarly journals Separating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff: A Review of Method and Application

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zeng ◽  
Ming-Guo Ma ◽  
Dong-Rui Di ◽  
Wei-Yu Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Separating the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is an important topic in hydrology, and a large number of methods and theories have been widely used. In this paper, we review the current papers on separating the impacts of climate and human activities on runoff, summarize the progress of relevant research methods and applications in recent years, and discuss future research needs and directions.

The Water-Energy Nexus in the Middle East and North Africa under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manfred A. Lange
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Water Energy Nexus ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>The region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) encompasses countries of the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa, from Morocco in the West to the Islamic Republic of Iran in the East and from the Syrian Arab Republic in the North to the Republic of Yemen in the South. It is home to some 500 million inhabitants and is characterized by widely varied political and economic settings and a rich cultural heritage. Stark environmental gradients, as well as significant differences in the provision of ecosystem services, both East to West and South to North, are typical for the MENA Region.</p><p>Climate changes in the Mediterranean Basin, in general, and in the MENA countries, in particular, currently exceed global mean values significantly. Numerical model results indicate that this trend will continue in the near future and imply that the number of extreme summer temperatures and heatwaves may increase significantly over the coming decades. At the same time, a decrease in precipitation and a significantly longer dry season for most MENA countries than at present are anticipated. This leads to a significantly increased demand for water and energy. In addition, other factors further exacerbate these demands in the MENA, including the general economic development, extreme population growth and increasing urbanization, changes in lifestyle, shifting consumption patterns, inefficiencies in the use of resources that result from technical and managerial inadequacies and energy and water subsidies in several countries of the region to name but a few.</p><p>The impacts of climate change will be particularly severe in urban settings and large cities of the Mediterranean Basin and the MENA region. Cities will see an enhanced heat accumulation compared to the surrounding rural land due to heat-build-up in buildings, transportation infrastructure, and enhanced human activities. Reduced ventilation within cities exacerbates the warming, particularly during summer heatwaves. Consequently, additional, energy-intensive space cooling will be needed in order to maintain acceptable indoor conditions. With regard to water scarcity, the aforementioned decreases in precipitation will reduce available drinking water for city inhabitants and green spaces. This requires the provision of unconventional water sources, e.g., through desalination, which requires significant quantities of energy. Overall, climate change will exacerbate resource demand for water and energy, in general, and in urban settings, in particular.</p><p>However, the provision of water and energy are interrelated. In order to maintain water and energy security in the MENA region, these issues need therefore be considered holistically in the framework of the Water-Energy-Nexus (WEN).</p><p>The present paper aims to elucidate some of the interrelationships between water and energy resources and their provision and will briefly outline a few of the possible mitigation/adaptation options/strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on the MENA region and its inhabitants.</p>

The impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Ofori-Boateng ◽  
Baba Insah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Cocoa Production ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The study aimed at examining the current and future impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. Design/methodology/approach – A translog production function based on crop yield response framework was used. A panel model was estimated using data drawn from cocoa-producing countries in West Africa. An in-sample simulation was used to determine the predictive power of the model. In addition, an out-sample simulation revealed the effect of future trends of temperature and precipitation on cocoa output. Findings – Temperature and precipitation play a considerable role in cocoa production in West Africa. It was established that extreme temperature adversely affected cocoa output in the sub-region. Furthermore, increasing temperature and declining precipitation trends will reduce cocoa output in the future. Practical implications – An important implication of this study is the recognition that lagging effects are the determinants of cocoa output and not coincident effects. This finds support from the agronomic point of view considering the gestation period of the cocoa crop. Originality/value – Although several studies have been carried out in this area, this study modeled and estimated the interacting effects of factors that influence cocoa production. This is closer to reality, as climatic factors and agricultural inputs combine to yield output.

scholarly journals Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on the Outbreak of Early Twenty-First-Century Violence in the Middle East and North Africa and the Potential of Permaculture as an Effective Adaptation

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 179-186
Author(s):  
M. Elyas Karim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Middle East ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Environmental Crisis ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Early Twenty ◽  
Underlying Causes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Considering the ongoing violence taking place in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, especially within Syria and Iraq, it is essential to provide an accurate explanation of causes in order to develop an adaptation model. In addition to discussing the climate-related concerns associated with the emergence of violence, this paper considers how tackling the environmental crisis in MENA will improve living standards and lead toward sustainable development. As a supplement to a range of secondary data, a small selection of individuals who have escaped the recent conflicts have been interviewed. Because this potential sample pool is small, and the ongoing violence precludes fieldwork in the MENA region, this study provides only a preliminary exploration of the topic. A more detailed study is desirable, if and when it is feasible to conduct such research. As a potential adaptation to climate change in the region, permaculture is presented through illustrations of its capabilities for redressing some of the underlying causes of violence in the MENA region.

scholarly journals Aesthetic Consolation: A Possible Remedy for Solastalgia in James Bradley’s Clade (2017)

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Abeer Mohammed Raafat Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Western World ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Everyday Aesthetics ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Aesthetic Values ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change is one of the significant and threatening problems worldwide. It has attracted the attention of scientists and politicians as well as writers and critics especially in the western world. Writers have responded by writing climate change fiction despite the challenges of representation. James Bradley, an Australian novelist and critic, is one of those writers who are deeply occupied by the impacts of climate change. He has written Clade (2017) which traces the life of Adam Leith, a climatologist, and his family descendants amid the disastrous consequences of climate change. To analyze this novel, the researcher focuses on solastalgia, and applies the approach of everyday aesthetics. In a nutshell, the paper attempts to highlight the impact of climate change, examine the relationship between the characters and their environment, and explore the possibility of adaptation and detection of aesthetic values in an environment destroyed by climate change.

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