Determinants of house buyers’ expected holding periods in boom and bust markets in California

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 256-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Chernobai ◽  
Tarique Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectation ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Financial Characteristics

Purpose This study aims to investigate the determinants of homeowners’ planned holding periods. Real estate market is known for displaying buying and selling behavior that does not conform to traditional economic theories such as rational expectation or expected utility. Mounting evidence of anomalous observations appear to be supported by other theories, such as prospect theory, which in particular helps explain the disposition effect – sellers are too quick to sell when prices are climbing and hold on to properties longer when prices are plummeting. While this evidence is widely documented in housing studies based on data on realized holding periods (i.e. ex post), this study explores factors that may motivate homeowners to alter their expected holding horizons (i.e. ex ante) to form new preferred holding periods that may be shorter or longer than those planned during house search. Design/methodology/approach The empirical study uses data collected from two cross-section surveys of recent homebuyers in rising and declining housing markets in Southern California in 2004-2005 and 2007-2008, respectively. Findings The empirical results demonstrate that in addition to the financial characteristics of the recent homebuyer, the characteristics of the buying experience – non-monetary, such as the realized search duration, and monetary, such as perception of negative or positive premium paid for the house relative to its market value – have a statistically significant effect on the holding horizon revision. The data strongly indicate that the perception of having overpaid increases the likelihood of upward revision of the original holding horizon. This effect is stronger in the declining than in the rising market – a crucial finding that mirrors the disposition effect. Originality/value This study sheds new light on what may contribute to the disposition effect in housing markets that has not yet been investigated in past literature. The novel approach here is to look at how different house price environments may affect homeowners’ holding periods ex ante when they begin, rather than ex post when already realized.

Disposition effect at the market level: evidence from Indian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
Sravani Bharandev ◽  
Sapar Narayan Rao
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the disposition effect at market level and propose an appropriate reference point for testing disposition at market level. Design/methodology/approach This is an empirical study conducted on 500 index stocks of NSE500 (National Stock Exchange). Winning and losing days for each stock are calculated using 52-week high and low prices as reference points. To test disposition effect, abnormal trading volumes of stocks are regressed on their percentage of winning (losing) days. Further using ANOVA, the difference between mean of percentage of winning (losing) days of high abnormal trading volume deciles and low abnormal trading volume deciles is tested. Findings Results show that a stock’s abnormal trading volume is positively influenced by the percentage of winning days whereas percentage of losing days show no such effect. Findings are consistent even after controlling for volatility and liquidity. ANOVA results show the presence of high percentage of winning days in higher deciles of abnormal trading volumes and no such pattern in case of losing days confirms the presence of disposition effect. Further an ex post analysis indicates that disposition prone investors accumulate losses. Originality/value This is the first study, which proposes the use of 52-week high and low prices as reference points to test the market-level disposition effect. Findings of this study enhance the limited literature available on disposition effect in emerging markets by providing evidence from Indian stock markets.

Co-creation and higher order customer engagement in hospitality and tourism services

2016 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prakash K. Chathoth ◽  
Gerardo R. Ungson ◽  
Robert J. Harrington ◽  
Eric S.W. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Value Creation ◽  
Higher Order ◽  
Customer Engagement ◽  
Service Dominant Logic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dominant Logic ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Experiential Value

Purpose – This paper aims to present a review of the literature associated with co-creation and higher-order customer engagement concepts and poses critical questions related to the current state of research. Additionally, the paper presents a framework for customer engagement and co-creation with relevance to hospitality transactions. Design/methodology/approach – Earlier research on co-production, co-creation, consumer engagement and service-dominant logic are discussed and synthesized. Based on this synthesis, links and contrasts of these varying research streams are presented providing an articulation of key characteristics of each and how these might be applied within a hospitality context. Findings – Modalities in service transactions vary among traditional production, co-production and co-creation based on changes in attitudes, enabling technologies and the logic or ideology supporting the change. Transaction characteristics vary among manufacturing, quasi-manufacturing and services based on several key categories including differences in boundary conditions, enablers, success requirements, sustainability requirements, the dominant logic used and key barriers/vulnerabilities. When creating experiential value for consumers, firms should consider several aspects ex-ante, in-situ and ex-post of the change and during the change process. Research limitations/implications – Firms need to move toward higher-order customer engagement using co-creative modalities to enhance value creation. Current practices in the hotel industry may not in their entirety support this notion. Ex-ante, in-situ and ex-post considerations for creating experiential value need to be used as part of a checklist of questions for firms to pose in order to move toward managing customer experiences using the service-dominant logic as part of the firm’s orientation toward its market. This would give it the required thrust to create superior engagement platforms that use co-creative modalities while addressing the barriers to higher-order customer engagement as identified in the literature. Originality/value – The hospitality and tourism literature on co-creation and higher-order customer engagement is still in its infancy. A synthesis of these early studies provides support for the need for future research on co-creation that more clearly articulates the modality firms could use to move toward co-creation. This paper develops a dynamic framework using characteristics of co-creation that integrate the various stages of value creation (i.e. input, throughput and output).

Housing market networks in China's major cities: a conditional causality approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Yang ◽  
Nannan Yuan ◽  
Shichao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scale Free ◽  
Second Tier ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Secondary Housing Market ◽  
Market Networks

PurposeTo explore the state of this conditional Granger causality when other cities are not factors, we investigate housing market networks in China's major cities by using a combination of conditional Granger causality and network analysis.Design/methodology/approachAlthough housing market networks have been well discussed for different countries, the question of housing market networks in China's major cities based on the conditional causality perspective has yet to be answered.FindingsWe discover that second-tier cities are more influential than first-tier cities. Although the connectivity of the primary housing market is more complex than the diversified connectivity observed in the secondary housing market, both markets are scale-free networks that exhibit high stability. Moreover, we reveal that geographic conditions and economic development jointly determine the housing market's modular hierarchical structure. Our results provide meaningful information for both Chinese policymakers and investors.Originality/valueBy excluding the influence of other cities, our conditional Granger causality identifies the true casual relation between cities' housing markets. Moreover, it is the first paper to consider the primary housing market and secondary housing market separately. Specifically, Chinese prefer new house rather than second-hand house from both speculative and self-housing. Generally speaking, the new house price is lower than the second-hand house price since the new house is off-plan property. Therefore, understanding the difference between primary and secondary housing markets will provide useful information for both policymakers and speculators.

Dividend policy and probability of extreme returns

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Bouaddi ◽  
Omar Farooq ◽  
Neveen Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Actual State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Dividend Payments ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Future

PurposeThis study examines the effect of dividend policy on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.Design/methodology/approachWe use the data of publicly listed non-financial firms from France and the ex ante measures of crash and jump probabilities (based on the Flexible Quadrants Copulas) to test our hypothesis during the period between 1997 and 2019.FindingsOur results show that dividend payments are negatively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and positively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. Our results are robust across various sub-samples and across different proxies of dividend policy. Our findings also hold when we use ex-post measures of crash and jump probabilities.Originality/valueUnlike prior literature, we use ex ante measures of crash and jump probabilities. The main advantage of this forward looking measure is that it allows for more flexibility by modeling the dependence between market returns and stock returns as functions of their actual state. Our measure is also consistent with the behavior of investors and market participants in a way that the market participants do not know the future outcome with certainty, but rather they are anticipating the future.

The impact of guaranteed bailout assistance on bank loan overstatement

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-210
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hazera ◽  
Carmen Quirvan ◽  
Salvador Marin-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the basic binomial option pricing model (BOPM) might be used by regulators to help formulate rules, prior to financial crisis, that help prevent loan overstatement by banks in emerging market economies undergoing financial crises. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC) to construct a simple model in which banks overstate loans to minimize losses. The model is used to illustrate how guarantees of bailout assistance (BA) (to banks) by crisis stricken countries’ financial authorities may encourage banks to overstate loans and delay the implementation of IFRS for loan valuation. However, the model also illustrates how promises of BA may be depicted as binomial put options which provide banks with the option of either: reporting loan values on poor projects accurately and receiving the loans’ liquidation values; or, overstating loans and receiving the guaranteed BA. An illustration is also provided of how authorities may use this representation to help minimize bank loan overstatement in periods of financial crisis. In order to provide an illustration of how the option value of binomial assistance may evolve during a financial crisis, the model is generalized to the Mexican financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, Mexican authorities’ guarantees of BA to the nation’s largest banks encouraged those institutions to overstate loans and delay the implementation of (previously adopted) international “best practices” based loan valuation standards. Findings – Application of the model to the Mexican financial crisis provides evidence that, in spite of Mexico’s “official” 1997 adoption of international “best accounting practices” for banks, “iron clad” guarantees of BA by the country’s financial authorities to Mexico’s largest banks provided those institutions with an incentive to knowingly overstate loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Research limitations/implications – The model is compared against only one country in which the BA was directly infused into banks’ loan portfolios. Thus, as conceived, it is directly applicable to crisis countries in which the bailout took this form. However, the many quantitative variations of SBC models as well as recent studies which have applied the binomial model to other forms of bailout (e.g. direct purchases of bank shares by authorities) suggest that the model could be modified to accommodate different bailout scenarios. Practical implications – The model and application show that guaranteed BA can be viewed as a put option and that ex-ante regulatory policies based on the correct valuation of the BA as a binomial option might prevent banks from overstating loans. Social implications – Use of the binomial or similar approaches to valuing BA may help regulators to determine the level of BA that will not encourage banks to overstate the value of their loans. Originality/value – Recent research has used the BOPM to value, on an ex-post basis, the BA which appears on the balance sheet of institutions which have been rescued. However, little research has advocated the use of this type of model to help prevent, on an ex-ante basis, the overstatement of loans on poor projects.

Housing markets and policy in the UK and the USA

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Jones ◽  
Harry W. Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Home Ownership ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose – This paper aims to examine how the exogenous shock of the global financial crisis has had a differential impact on the housing markets of the USA and UK. Design/methodology/approach – The paper begins by examining the nature and dynamics of the global financial crisis. It presents a detailed comparison of institutional and housing market characteristics in each country. A particular focus is the differences in mortgage funding and subprime lending trends over the decade leading up to the financial crisis. Findings – The analysis demonstrates the distinctiveness of the recent housing cycles and the geography of the downward price adjustments. Relative unemployment rates play a key role in these outcomes. Despite the different dynamics of the boom and bust, there is a common legacy in terms of the collapse of house building, repossessions/foreclosures and falling home ownership rates. The short-term policy responses by both governments addressed the same target issues in alternative ways but with different outcomes. Longer-term solutions are still being debated in both countries. Originality/value – Innovatory insights are provided by the comparison of the sub-national spatial pattern of the recent house price cycle in two countries.

scholarly journals A dynamic model for housing price spillovers with an evidence from the US and the UK markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Ozun ◽  
Hasan Murat Ertugrul ◽  
Yener Coskun
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Us

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to introduce an empirical model for house price spillovers between real estate markets. The model is presented by using data from the US-UK and London-New York housing markets over a period of 1975Q1-2016Q1 by employing both static and dynamic methodologies. Design/methodology/approach The research analyzes long-run static and dynamic spillover elasticity coefficients by employing three methods, namely, autoregressive distributed lag, the fully modified ordinary least square and dynamic ordinary least squares estimator under a Kalman filter approach. The empirical method also investigates dynamic correlation between the house prices by employing the dynamic control correlation method. Findings The paper shows how a dynamic spillover pricing analysis can be applied between real estate markets. On the empirical side, the results show that country-level causality in housing prices is running from the USA to UK, whereas city-level causality is running from London to New York. The model outcomes suggest that real estate portfolios involving US and UK assets require a dynamic risk management approach. Research limitations/implications One of the findings is that the dynamic conditional correlation between the US and the UK housing prices is broken during the crisis period. The paper does not discuss the reasons for that break, which requires further empirical tests by applying Markov switching regime shifts. The timing of the causality between the house prices is not empirically tested. It can be examined empirically by applying methods such as wavelets. Practical implications The authors observed a unidirectional causality from London to New York house prices, which is opposite to the aggregate country-level causality direction. This supports London’s specific power in the real estate markets. London has a leading role in the global urban economies residential housing markets and the behavior of its housing prices has a statistically significant causality impact on the house prices of New York City. Social implications The house price co-integration observed in this research at both country and city levels should be interpreted as a continuity of real estate and financial integration in practice. Originality/value The paper is the first research which applies a dynamic spillover analysis to examine the causality between housing prices in real estate markets. It also provides a long-term empirical evidence for a dynamic causal relationship for the global housing markets.

Mergers by family firms and managerial delegation: a Cournot model and empirical evidence from Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Manel Antelo ◽  
David Peón ◽  
Xosé-Manuel Martínez-Filgueira
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Price Competition ◽  
Family Firms ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Service Differentiation ◽  
Strategic Delegation ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse a key research hypothesis: Do firms ruled by managers have a greater rationale to implement a mergers and acquisitions (M&A) than (family) firms managed by their owners? Design/methodology/approach This paper uses an organizational-delegation-quantity oligopoly game to examine the profitability of M&As for firms that strategically delegate production decisions to managers versus family firms with no strategic delegation. This paper delimits the condition for delegation as aimed at increasing merger profitability: non-family CEOs will implement mergers more frequently than family CEOs and more so for inefficient firms because these require fewer synergies. The paper tests the main propositions with data on all M&As by small and medium firms in Spain in 2017 and 2018. Findings The greater the average operating margin of a firm, the more likely a merger, which is also more likely between non-family firms. The evidence of higher ex post synergies by firms is not statistically significant due to large variability, suggesting that some family firms did not obtain the expected ex ante synergies. The lesson is that family firms competing in an environment of high marginal costs (e.g. industries in the early stage of the life cycle) seeking to grow through inorganic means such as M&As have an incentive to professionalize management. Research limitations/implications This paper models competition in a Cournot fashion, representative of industries where firms compete in terms of sales growth and increased market share. Other results might hold in industries where firms are oriented to price competition or to service differentiation. The empirical research uses proxies for key variables such as the form of firm governance and unit costs, while hypotheses on ex ante synergies driving merger decisions had to be tested through ex post synergies. Originality/value M&As by small firms and family firms remain largely unexplored in the literature. This paper contributes with both a theoretical model and empirical research that highlight the implications of strategic delegation contracts for M&A deals.

Is the new issue puzzle real? Evidence from implied cost of capital

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Snow Han
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offering ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Implied Cost Of Capital ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante

PurposeThis study aims to provide new explanation of the new issue puzzle.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses market implied cost of capital (ICC), rather than ex post realized returns, as proxy for ex ante expected returns, and sheds new light on the question why initial public offering (IPO) firms underperform the market within a 3–5 years period after the offerings.FindingsUsing ICC, the author finds that the market expects to earn higher risk premium for new listing firms than similar firms, which is contradictory to the documented new issue puzzle. The higher expected returns come from higher idiosyncratic volatility for newly listed firms, which are young and have more growth opportunities. The author also reports that investors are negatively surprised by lower-than-expected performances of newly listed firms.Originality/valueThe author’s results provide new empirical evidence that the new issue puzzle does not exist. Previous results observed IPO firms' under-performance is attributable to that ex post realized returns are a noisy proxy for ex ante expected returns, especially for newly listed firms with limited information.

Do professional sport franchise owners overpromise and underdeliver the public? Lessons from Brooklyn’s Barclays Center

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Propheter
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Financial Incentive ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Usa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a number of promises typically made by owners of professional sports franchises in the USA that are also typically ignored or underevaluated by public bureaus and their elected principals using the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York as a case study. Ex post subsidy outcomes are evaluated against ex ante subsidy promises in order to draw lessons that can inform and improve subsidy debates elsewhere. Design/methodology/approach The case study adopts a pre-post strategy drawing on data from multiple sources over a period of up to ten years in order to triangulate the narrative and build credibility. The franchise owner’s ex ante promises and financial projections were obtained from various media including newspaper, video and interviews between December 2003, when the arena was publicly announced, and September 2012, when the arena opened. Data on ex post outputs were obtained from financial documents and government records covering periods from September 2011 through June 2016. Findings The franchise owner is found to have exaggerated the arena’s financial condition, under-delivered on its employment promises, and exaggerated the scope and timeliness of ancillary real estate development. Only promises of event frequency and attendance levels, measures of the public’s demand for the facility, have been met during the first three years. Research limitations/implications Because the evaluation is a case study, causal conclusions cannot be drawn and some aspects of the Barclays Center context may not be applicable in other jurisdictions or subsidy debates. In addition, the case study does not evaluate an exhaustive list of the promises franchise owners make. Practical implications Franchise owners have a financial incentive to overpromise public benefits, since subsidy levels are tied to what the public is perceived to receive in return. This case study demonstrates that the public sector should not take owners’ promises and projections of public benefits at face value. Moreover, the case study reveals that the public sector should put more effort into ensuring ex post policy and data transparency in order to facilitate benefit-cost analyses of such subsidies. Originality/value The data required to evaluate promises, other than economic development ones, made by franchise owners are not systematically collected across state and local governments in the USA, making large-n studies impossible. Case studies are underutilized approaches in this area of public affairs, and this paper illustrates their usefulness. By focusing on a single facility, an evaluation of the franchise owner’s less acknowledged and arguably more important promises about the facility and its local impact is possible.

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