Population ageing and economic growth in Japan

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 841-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikiko Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Change ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine how population ageing is related to economic growth as measured by real GDP per capita in Japan. This study is to address the following questions: first, how is population composition by age group related to economic change? Second, how is the dependency ratio related to economic change? And finally, what are the predictions for economic growth in the future? This study answers these questions in relation to Japan. Design/methodology/approach – Regression methods were applied to single-country data for the period 1975-2011. Findings – This study finds that an increase in the 70-74 population age group is associated with a decrease in economic growth, while an increase in the 75 and over population age group is associated with an increase in economic growth in Japan. Research limitations/implications – The relationships that were found in this study do not imply causation from demographic change to economic change. Practical implications – One potential way of promoting sustainable economic growth under conditions of population ageing is to devise a comprehensive policy that focuses on demographic factors. Originality/value – This study analyses population ageing and economic growth in Japan using single-country data by applying regression methods.

Does financial development accelerate economic growth?

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 426-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Besnik Taip Fetai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose This study aims to empirically explore whether there is causality and in which direction, i.e. whether financial development generates economic growth or whether financial development merely follows economic growth in transition European countries, including Russian Federation and Turkey, during 1998-2015. Design/methodology/approach The study uses different techniques such as pooled OLS, fixed and random effects and the Hausman–Taylor model with instrumental variables. Findings The regression results show a positive relationship between financial development indicators and real GDP per capita growth, thus supporting the hypothesis that finance leads economic growth. The result also shows that financial crisis has a negative effect on real GDP per capita growth. Furthermore, these findings show that government spending and inflation have a negative impact on real GDP per capita growth. The study also shows that financial development plays growth-supporting role in real GDP per capita growth in 20 European countries in transition, including Russian Federation and Turkey. Practical implications As financial development generates real GDP per capita growth, on the basis of the results of the study, a course of action that involves institutional improvement and incentivizing competition in the financial sector is recommended to the Central Banks’ policymakers in transition economies. These will in turn lead to higher real GDP per capita growth. Originality/value The study is original in nature and makes effort to promote financial development in transition European countries, including Russian Federation and Turkey. The findings of this study will be of value to Central Banks and other policymakers.

Measuring the Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislav Ivanov ◽  
Craig Webster
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Equilibrium Models ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium Models ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a methodology for measuring the contribution of tourism to an economy's growth, which is tested with data for Cyprus, Greece and Spain. The authors use the growth of real GDP per capita as a measure of economic growth and disaggregate it into economic growth generated by tourism and economic growth generated by other industries. The methodology is compared with other existing methodologies; namely, Tourism Satellite Account, Computable General Equilibrium models and econometric modelling of economic growth.

Is public debt hindering economic growth of the Philippines?

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 202-221 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naeem Akram
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
External Debt ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Domestic Debt

Purpose – Over the years most of the developing countries have failed to collect enough revenues to finance their budgets. As a result, they have to face the problem of twin deficits and to rely on external and domestic debt to finance their developmental activities. The positive effects of public debt relate to the fact that in resource-starved economies debt financing (if done properly) leads to higher growth and adds to their capacity to service and repay external and internal debt. The negative effects work through two main channels – i.e., “Debt Overhang” and “Crowding Out” effects. The purpose of this paper is to examine the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment for the Philippines. Design/methodology/approach – The present study examines the consequences of public debt for economic growth and investment for the Philippines during the period 1975-2010, by using autoregressive distributed lag technique. Findings – The results reveal that in the Philippines, public external debt has negative and significant relationship with economic growth and investment confirming the existence of “Debt Overhang effect”. But due to insignificant relationships of debt servicing with investment and economic growth, the existence of the crowding out hypothesis could not be confirmed. The domestic debt has a negative relationship with investment and positive relationship with economic growth. Research limitations/implications – First and foremost implication of the study is that heavy reliance on external debt must be discouraged. Therefore, in order to accelerate economic growth, developing countries must adopt those policies that are likely to result in reducing their debt burden, and it must not be allowed to reach unsustainable level. In the case of domestic debt, the present study finds that investment is negatively affected by domestic debt due to the crowding out effect; yet real GDP has a positive relationship with domestic debt. Thus, if policy makers want to use domestic debt as a tool to stimulate real GDP then it must keep an eye on the consequences of domestic debt on the investment. Practical implications – First and foremost implication of the study is that heavy reliance on external debt must be discouraged. Therefore, in order to accelerate economic growth, the Philippines must adopt those policies that are likely to result in reducing their debt burden, and external debt it must not be allowed to reach unsustainable level. In the case of domestic debt, the present study finds that investment is negatively affected by domestic debt due to the crowding out effect; yet real GDP has a positive relationship with domestic debt. Thus, if policy makers want to use domestic debt as a tool to stimulate real GDP then it must keep an eye on the consequences of domestic debt for on the investment. Social implications – It also follows from the estimation results that population growth rate is harmful for the economic growth. So in order to stimulate the growth performance, it must adopt effective population control policies. Similarly, since openness and investment are growth enhancing so there is need for the trade and investment supportive policies. Originality/value – From the review of literature on the issue, it can be broadly summarized that most of the studies are on the relationship of external debt and economic growth, neglecting domestic debt entirely or mentioning it in the passing. Second, most of these studies have been conducted by using panel data. However, as the different countries vary in socio-economic conditions so it is better to conduct the country specific study. The present study is an attempt to fill these gaps in the existing literature.

China’s hukou system and city economic growth: from the aspect of rural–urban migration

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kunling Zhang ◽  
Chunlai Chen ◽  
Jian Ding ◽  
Zhinan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
System Reform ◽  
Urban Migration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Growth Model ◽  
Instrumental Variable Regression ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The City ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the economic impacts of China’s hukou system and propose the possible direction for future reform. Design/methodology/approach The study develops a framework to incorporate the hukou system into the economic growth model. Using prefecture city-level panel data covering 241 cities over the period 2004–2016 and applying the fixed effects and instrumental variable regression techniques, the authors investigated empirically the impacts of the hukou system on city economic growth. Findings The study provides three main findings. First, the city sector conditionally benefits from labour mobility deregulation that allows migrants to work in cities. Second, the hukou system has different impacts on economic growth among cities with different sizes and administrative levels. Third, to offset the costs of providing exclusive public services to the migrants, the big or high-administrative-level cities can use their high-valued hukou to attract the high-skilled migrants, but the small- or low-administrative-level cities do not have this advantage. Practical implications This study suggests that the key for further hukou system reform is how to deal with the hukou–welfare binding relationship. Originality/value The authors developed a theoretical framework and conducted an empirical analysis on the direct relationship between the hukou system and economic growth to reveal the mechanism of how does the hukou system influence the city economic growth and answer the question of why is the hukou system reform so hard in China. The framework also sheds some lights on explaining the success and failure of the hukou system reforms in the past 40 years.

The impact of telecommunication revenue on economic growth: evidence from Ghana

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Atsu ◽  
Charles Agyei ◽  
William Phanuel Darbi ◽  
Sussana Adjei-Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Telecommunication Infrastructure ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-run impact of telecommunications revenue and telecommunications investment on economic growth of Ghana for the time horizon 1976-2007. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Phillips Perron unit root test to explore the stationarity property of the variables and the Engle-Granger residual-based test of cointegration to model an appropriate restricted error correction model. Findings – The outcome of the analysis produced mixed results. Telecommunications revenue does not contribute significantly whilst telecommunications investment does. Practical implications – Policy makers will have to deal with a conundrum; while designing targeted policies that will attract more telecommunication investment in order to maximize the corresponding revenues and the economic growth it brings in its wake, they must at the same time find ways and resources to grow the economy to a point or threshold where revenue from telecommunications can have the much needed impact on their economies. Originality/value – The study is one of the first that has investigated the line of causality between telecommunication revenue and economic growth unlike previous research that mainly focused on the impact of telecommunication infrastructure on economic development.

Do surges in foreign direct investment inflows lead to surges in economic growth? Evidence from developing countries

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jagadish Prasad Sahu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Recursive Bivariate Probit ◽  
Rapid Economic Growth

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows leads to surge in economic growth in 52 developing countries for the period 1990-2014. Design/methodology/approach The author used a threshold approach to identify surge incidences in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth rates and FDI inflows (measured as percentage of GDP) for each country included in the sample. Three different criteria are used to identify surge instances. As a preliminary analysis the author used the probit and complementary log–log regression methods to estimate the likelihood of growth surge occurrence. To correct the potential endogeneity problem the author jointly estimated the growth surge and FDI surge equations using the recursive bivariate probit (RBP) regression. Findings The author found that East Asia and the Pacific region has highest rate of growth surge incidences followed by South Asia. The results suggest that surge in FDI inflows significantly increases the likelihood of growth surge. The finding is robust to alternative surge definitions and methods of estimation. Practical implications The analysis reveals that inbound FDI flow is a critical driver of economic growth in developing countries. Large FDI inflows matters for achieving rapid economic growth. Therefore developing countries should adopt favourable policies to attract more FDI. Policymakers should focus on improving the investment climate of the country to boost domestic investment and to attract larger amount of FDI into the economy. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge this is the first study to examine whether surge in FDI inflows stimulates surge in economic growth in developing countries. The analysis reveals that FDI surge is a robust predictor of rapid economic growth in developing countries.

Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Khee Giap ◽  
Nguyen Le Phuong Anh ◽  
Ye Ye Denise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

Purpose Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both Singapore and Malaysia are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that necessitate a course-correction in order to sustain their growth momentum, going forward. In light of the renewed interest in understanding the growth constraints faced by the two countries, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs a novel empirical approach-the Geweke causality analysis-to investigate the causal drivers of economic growth in Singapore and Malaysia. Intuitively, the Geweke causality analysis helps us understand and measure the linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series variables. To that effect, we perform both a bi-variate as well as a multi-variate causality analysis. Findings The empirical results established using Geweke causality analysis suggest that Malaysia's new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector. The results also suggest that Singapore, on the other hand, should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth as the linear dependence between FDI and real GDP growth appears to be weaker compared to the linear dependence between the remaining variables and the real GDP growth. Originality/value While the traditional growth accounting framework provides useful insights at the aggregate level, there is a growing literature that discusses the importance of sectoral analysis to understand structural transformations in the economies which become important to sustain productivity growth in the long-run. This is immensely relevant in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, as well, especially with the changing policy focus in these countries to overcome structural growth issues. In light of this growing discussion on the importance of understanding the growth dynamics at the sectoral level, this paper presents new empirical evidence on the growth drivers in Singapore and Malaysia with a sectoral focus.

EXPORT-GROWTH NEXUS WHILE USING THE BLOCK EXOGENEITY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-46
Author(s):  
Zia Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Capital Formation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Import Trade ◽  
Bound Test

The core objective of the study is to analyze the association between export and eco-nomic growth under the consideration of the time frame 1967 to 2017 for Pakistan economy. The review of literature assists to find out the frequently utilize factors are the real GDP per capita, export, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capi-tal formation possible determinants of the economic growth. However, Export Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis is oftenly employed to elaborate the affiliation between ex-port and the growth. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to cointegration accompanied with the structural break and vector auto regressive (VAR) are employed to analysis the long-term association among real GDP per capita, ex-port, import, trade openness, fiscal development and capital formation. The empirical analysis confirms the cointegration among the factors and the ELG hypothesis holds in Pakistan economy. The Block Exogeneity reveals that export and the capital for-mation have strong influence to stimulate the economic growth. While all the other factors have cumulative influence on the growth. Moreover, the impulse response exposes that if the shock of real GDP per capita, import, trade openness, fiscal devel-opment and the capital formation are given to the export, then response of export would be positive in the coming time frame.

Establishing finance-growth linkage for India: a financial conditions index (FCI) approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1032-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.K. Giri ◽  
Deven Bansod
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Multiple Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 emphasized the need for monetary policy authorities to have a more comprehensive view of the conditions prevailing in the economy before deciding their policy stance. The purpose of this paper is to outline the construction of a financial conditions index (FCI) and investigate the possible co-integrating relationship between the economic growth and FCI. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the PCA methodology, with appropriate augmentations to handle the unbalanced panel data-sets and constructs a FCI for India. It tests the growth-predicting power of FCI by applying the auto regressive distributed lags approach to co-integration and verifies if the FCI is co-integrated with real GDP growth. It also discusses construction of a financial development index (FDI) which tracks the financial markets through M3, market capitalization and credit amount to residents. Findings The constructed FCI has a quarterly frequency and is available starting 1998q2. The long-run coefficient of FCI while predicting the real GDP growth is significant at 10 percent. The results confirm that a more-broader index FCI outperforms a narrower index FDI in growth prediction. Research limitations/implications By showing that FCI is a better growth predictor than FDI, the study establishes the importance of including the foreign exchange markets, bond markets and stock markets while summarizing the conditions in the economy. The authors hope that the FCI would be helpful to the monetary authorities in their policy decisions. Originality/value The paper adds to the few existing studies studies dealing with FCI for Indian economy and constructs a more comprehensive index which tracks multiple markets simultaneously. It also fills the gap in literature by evaluating the correlating relationship between FCI and economic growth.

Achieving SDG target 8.1 (sustain economic growth) in developing countries: how aid for trade policy and regulations can assist?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar Roy ◽  
Huang Xiaoling ◽  
Banna Banik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Purpose This study aims to examine how aid for trade policy and regulations (AfTPR) contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1 (sustain per capita economic growth) and whether the effectiveness of AfTPR is conditional to the stable political environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a widely accepted endogenous growth framework and applies panel data fixed effects and two-step difference and system generalized method of moments estimation strategies on panel data of 50 developing countries over 2005–2017. Findings The findings of the study confirm that aid to trade policy promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries, but this category of development assistance is only effective and significant for low and lower middle-income (LLMI) economies. The positive and significant effect of AfTPR in upper middle-income countries is conditional to their level of political stability. Under a stable political situation, the positive effect of AfTPR on sustainable growth remains almost same for the LLMI countries, whereas for the upper middle-income countries this growth effect reached almost double. Research limitations/implications International trade is considered as a driver for inclusive and sustainable economic growth, whereas aid for trade is acknowledged for its prospective contribution toward achieving these goals. The findings have dominant policy implications for the international development organizations and donors, which recommend that it is more desirable to transmit aid toward developing and implementing trade policy and regulations as per capita economic growth improves in the aid recipient countries. Originality/value According to the authors’ knowledge, no prior study empirically analyzes the effect of AfTPRs on SDG target 8.1.

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