scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of the Non-performing Placements and Off-balance Sheet Liabilities of Croatian Banks

Organizacija ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Benazić ◽  
Dajana Radin
Keyword(s):  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
Quantitative Impact ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

Abstract Background and Purpose: The non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities are often considered key factors that lead to banking crises. Economic and financial crises increase the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities which can cause significant losses for banks. Effective management and regulatory/ supervisory institutions such central banks should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to empirically determine the existence and the quantitative impact of main Croatian macroeconomic variables on the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks in the long and short-run. Methodology: For this purpose the bounds testing (ARDL) approach for cointegration is applied. The ARDL model is performed in two steps. The first step starts with conducting the bounds test for cointegration. In the second step, when cointegration is found, the long-run relationship and the associated error correction model are estimated. Results: The results indicate the existence of stable cointegration relationship between the variables i.e. in the longrun, an increase in real GDP reduces the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of Croatian banks wherein an increase in prices, unemployment, interest rate and the depreciation of the Croatian kuna exchange rate increases their level. On the other hand, in the short-run the results are rather mixed. Conclusion: To avoid crises, effective bank management and regulatory/supervisory institutions should be able to recognize and quantify these effects. This is a necessary precondition for implementation of an adequate prudential and monetary policy measures for reducing the level of the non-performing placements and off-balance sheet liabilities.

Money Supply-Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from a Landlocked Country

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Tilak Singh Mahara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Background: There is special role of money in the economy due to its astonishing importance as change in the amount of it can have a significant effect on the major macroeconomic variables. Money supply is generally considered as policy-determined phenomenon. Like in all the nations, macroeconomic stability of Nepal also depends on the variation in the quantity of money. Objective: The principle objective of the study is to examine the impact of money supply on the economic growth of Nepal. Methodology: This study applies the ARDL approach to cointegration. Bounds test (F-version) has been carried out to determine the existence of long-run relationship between variables. Results: The empirical results pointed out that there is positive and significant long-term relationship between money supply and real economic growth in Nepal. Causality result reveals that there is unidirectional causality from money supply (M2) to Real GDP. The error correction term is found negative and statistically significant suggesting a correction of short-run disequilibrium within two and a half years. Conclusions: The study concludes that increase in the money supply helps to increase the real economic growth in Nepal. So, money supply and real GDP are associated in the long-run.  Implications: The implication of the study is that, real economic growth in Nepal can be achieved if Nepal Rastra Bank emphasized on monetary policy instruments which help to increase the flow of money supply both in the short and long run.

scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of Consumption Inequality in Nigeria: Does Agricultural Productivity Matter?

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 253
Author(s):  
Oziengbe Scott Aigheyisi ◽  
Presley Kehinde Osemwengie
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Investment Environment ◽  
Agriculture Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Telecommunication Infrastructure ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Error Correction Modeling ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

The paper examines the effect of agricultural productivity and other macroeconomic variables on consumption inequality in Nigeria. The ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction modeling was employed for the analysis. The study found that agricultural productivity and domestic investment reduce consumption inequality in the long run. FDI was also found to be associated with reduction in consumption inequality in the short run, but its long run effect was not statistically significant. Based on the evidence, the study recommends as measure to reduce consumption inequality in the country, increased investment in the agriculture sector to enhance its productivity, and improvement in the investment environment through infrastructural development, including energy, road, telecommunication infrastructure, favourable, tax policies, enhanced national security, etc. to encourage domestic investment and enhance the attractiveness of the economy to FDI.

scholarly journals Determinantes da confiança do consumidor e dinâmica da política monetária no Brasil

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Rafaela Maiara Caetano ◽  
Cleomar Gomes Da Silva
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Econometric Methodology

<p>The aim of this article is to investigate the determinants of consumer confidence in Brazil and possible impacts on monetary policy actions. The econometric methodology applied is based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Models, particularly the Bounds Testing (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration. For monthly data between January 2003 and December 2016, the empirical results suggest that there is a long run relationship between consumer confidence and the other variables analyzed. As for short-run dynamics, the error correction mechanism varies between 1.9% and 8.7%, depending on the estimated model. This suggests that economic variables influence consumer confidence, and when there is a break in confidence, its recovery is very slow.</p>

scholarly journals Is Foreign Direct Investment a Cause of Environmental Degradation in Pakistan? An ARDL Approach to Cointegration

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Kamran Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Empirical Tests

This study has investigated the empirical relationship between FDI and environmental degradation in Pakistan and 43 years of data is used in the study started from 1972 to 2014. Empirical tests show that there exist mix-cointegrating series, so ARDL bounds testing is applied to check the short-long run cointegration among the variables. Results concluded that FDI causes CO2 emissions in long and short-run both. To check the direction of causality between variables, an ARDL Granger test is applied. It proved that FDI and CO2 emissions have bidirectional causality and causing each other from both ways.

scholarly journals THE FORECASTING BUDGET REVENUES IN ARDL APPROACH: A CASE OF UZBEKISTAN

2019 ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Fayziev R. A. ◽  
Khudoykulov S. K. ◽  
Rajapov Sh. Z. ◽  
Axmadjonov A. A.
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
Testing Approach

This paper contribute to the forecasted total budget revenues in Uzbekistan. It is aim to investigate long run and short run relationship between number of registered company, total number of taxpayers and forecasted total budget revenues from 1998 and 2017. More specifically, this dynamic relationship using bounds testing approach to co integration and the ARDL model. The main empirical findings indicate the existence of directional relationship between the number of registered company and forecasted total budget revenues in short run and long run. This mean that increase the number of registered company leads to go up forecasted total budget revenues. However, a unidirectional relationship between the total number of taxpayers and forecasted total budget revenues are confirmed in the long run and short run.

The Implication of the Oscillations in Exchange Rate for the Commodity-wise Trade Flows between Pakistan and China: An Evidence from ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050030
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zubair Chishti ◽  
Javed Iqbal ◽  
Farrukh Mahmood ◽  
Hafiz Syed Muhammad Azeem
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Textile Yarn ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Major Trading Partner ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study intends to explore the impact of oscillations in the exchange rate on commodity-wise trade flows between Pakistan and its major trading partner China, while employing the annual data for 1982–2017. Applying the ARDL bounds testing approach, this study confirms that 94% of the selected exporting and 86% of the chosen importing industries possess “cointegration”. Further, the findings reveal that 81%, in the short run, and 52%, in the long run, of exporting industries respond to the volatile exchange rate. Moreover, the volatility affects 77%, in the short run, while 65%, in the long term, of the importing industries. Fascinatingly, the findings also indicate that a major shareholder exporting industry coded as 651 (“Textile yarn and thread” with 57% share) gets benefitted from the volatile exchange rate.

scholarly journals Trade Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment in Malaysia

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 11-23
Author(s):  
Sabariah Nordin ◽  
Gairuzazmi B. Mat Ghani .
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Influential Variable

A decision to establish foreign direct investment (FDI) involves a lot of critical thinking, especially in deciding a place to locate the investment. Evaluation and consideration comprise of costs and benefits of launching the FDI. This study focuses on time series data for the sample period of 1970 to 2009. The main objective of this study is to identify the major determinant of the inward flows of FDI for Malaysia by employing the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Of all the variables being tested, trade openness is found to be the most influential variable in attracting the inflows of FDI as it shows consistent results in the short run as well as in the long run in all models being tested. Since the trade openness which represents the liberalization of the Malaysian economy could induce the inflows of FDI, some policy actions can be taken up to enhance the trade openness.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

scholarly journals Economic Development, CO2 Emissions and Energy Use Nexus-Evidence from the Danube Region Countries

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 3165
Author(s):  
Eva Litavcová ◽  
Jana Chovancová
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Mutual Cooperation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Danube Region ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this study is to examine the empirical cointegration, long-run and short-run dynamics and causal relationships between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in 14 Danube region countries over the period of 1990–2019. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing methodology was applied for each of the examined variables as a dependent variable. Limited by the length of the time series, we excluded two countries from the analysis and obtained valid results for the others for 26 of 36 ARDL models. The ARDL bounds reliably confirmed long-run cointegration between carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Economic growth and energy consumption have a significant impact on carbon emissions in the long-run in all of these four countries; in the short-run, the impact of economic growth is significant in Austria. Likewise, when examining cointegration between energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in the short-run, a significant contribution of CO2 emissions on energy consumptions for seven countries was found as a result of nine valid models. The results contribute to the information base essential for making responsible and informed decisions by policymakers and other stakeholders in individual countries. Moreover, they can serve as a platform for mutual cooperation and cohesion among countries in this region.

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