Behaviour and determinants of implied volatility in Indian market

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narain ◽  
Narander Kumar Nigam ◽  
Piyush Pandey
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
International Study ◽  
Volatility Smile ◽  
Vector Autoregressions ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Option Contract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand the patterns of the implied volatility (IV) of the Indian index option market and its relationship with moneyness (called the volatility smile). Its goal is also to ascertain the determinants of IV. Design/methodology/approach For this purpose, IVs were computed from the daily call and put data of CNX Nifty index options from April 2004 to March 2014. The patterns of IVs were analysed using univariate parametric tests. Multivariate regression analyses were conducted to understand the relationships observed. Resultantly, vector autoregressions were performed to assess the determinants of IV. Findings The results suggested that there was asymmetric volatility across time and strike prices using alternative measures of moneyness. Furthermore, it was found that the IV of lower strike prices was significantly higher (lower) than that of higher strike prices for call (put) options. Put IV was observed to be higher than call IV irrespective of any attributes. The results further showed that current-month contracts have significantly higher IV than those for next month and those were followed by far-month contracts. Nifty futures’ volumes and momentum were found to be significant determinants of IV. Practical implications The behaviour of the volatility smile is important when accounting for the Vega risks in the portfolios of hedge fund managers. While taking a position, besides the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model’s input factors, investors must consider the previous behaviour of volatility, a market’s microstructures and its liquidity for a put option contract. They must also consider the attributes of the underlying for a call option contract. Originality/value This is the first decadal study (the longest span of data for any international study on this subject) to confirm the existence of the volatility smile for the index options market in India. It examines and confirms the smile’s asymmetry patterns for different definitions of moneyness, as well as option types, the tenure of options contracts and the different phases of market conditions. It further helps to identify the determinants of IV and so has renewed importance for traders.

Portraits of five hedge fund fraud cases

2008 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majed R. Muhtaseb ◽  
Chun Chun “Sylvia” Yang
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Good Opportunity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Management Group ◽  
Fund Industry ◽  
Asset Managers

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is two fold: educate investors about hedge fund managers' activities prior to the fraud recognition by the authorities and to help investors and other stakeholders in the hedge fund industry identify red flags before fraud is actually committed.Design/methodology/approachThe paper investigates fraud committed by the Bayou Funds, Beacon Hill Asset Management, Lancer Management Group (LMG), Lipper & Company and Maricopa investment fund. The fraud activities took place during 2000 and 2005.FindingsThe five cases alone cost the hedge fund investors more than $1.5 billion. Investors may have had a good opportunity for avoiding the irrecoverable costs of the fraud had they carefully vetted the backgrounds of the hedge fund managers and/or continuously monitored the funds activities, especially during turbulent market environments.Originality/valueThis is the first research paper to identify and extensively investigate fraud committed by hedge funds. In spite of the size of the hedge fund industry and relatively substantial level and inevitably recurring fraud, academic journals are to yet address this issue. The paper is of great value to hedge funds and their individual and institutional investors, asset managers, financial advisers and regulators.

Are hedge fund returns affected by media coverage of macroeconomic news?

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-439
Author(s):  
Sandip Dutta ◽  
James Thorson
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
News Announcements ◽  
Hedge Fund Returns ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Extant literature suggests that the difficulty associated with the interpretation of macroeconomic news announcements by the market in general in different economic environments, might be the reason why most studies do not find any significant relationship between real-sector macroeconomic variables and financial asset returns. This paper aims to use a different approach to measure macroeconomic news. The objective is to examine if a different measure of a macroeconomic news variable, constructed from media coverage of the same, significantly affects hedge fund returns. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a news index for unemployment, which is a real-sector variable, constructed from newspaper coverage of unemployment announcements and examine its impact on hedge fund returns. Findings Contrary to the other studies that examine the impact of macroeconomic news on hedge fund returns, the authors find that media coverage of unemployment news announcements significantly affects hedge fund returns. Practical implications Overall, this paper demonstrates that the manner in which the market interprets macroeconomic news announcements in different economic environments is probably a more relevant factor for hedge funds and is more likely to impact hedge fund returns. In conjunction with variables – constructed from media coverage of unemployment news announcements – that factor in the manner of interpretation, it is found that surprises also matter for hedge fund returns. This is an important consideration for hedge fund managers as well. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the impact of media coverage of macroeconomic news announcements on hedge fund returns and finds significantly different results with real-sector macro variables.

Fraud against hedge funds: implications to operational risk and due diligence

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-77
Author(s):  
Majed R. Muhtaseb
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Funds ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Due Diligence ◽  
Law Firm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers

Purpose The loss of an amount in excess of $100m cash deposit can be disruptive to the operations, definitely the liquidity of the hedge fund. Should a hedge fund liquidity position deteriorate, its compromised solvency could impact its vendors, most notably creditors and prime brokers. Large successful hedge funds do make basic mistakes. Lawyer Marc Dreier committed the criminal act of selling fraudulent promissory notes to hedge funds and others. Mr Drier’s success in selling fraudulent promissory notes was facilitated by his accomplices who posed as fake representatives of legitimate institutions. Drier and team presented bogus “audited financial statements” and forged developer’s signatures, and even went as far as using the unsuspecting institutions’ premises for meetings to meet potential notes buyers to further falsely legitimize the scheme. He had the notes buyers send their payments to his law firm account, to secure the money. His actions cost his victims, who include 13 hedge fund managers, other investors and entities, $400m in addition to his law firm’s employees who also suffered when his law firm was dissolved. For his actions, he was sentenced 20 years in federal prison for investment fraud. This study aims to direct hedge fund investors and other stakeholders to thoroughly vet the compliance function, especially controls on cash disbursements, even if the hedge fund is sizable (in excess of $1bn). Investors and even other stakeholders also should place a greater focus on what is usually overlooked issue; most notably the credit quality and authenticity of short-term investments bought by their hedge funds. Design/methodology/approach A thorough investigation of a fraud committed by a lawyer against a number of hedge funds. Several important lessons are identified to professionals who conduct due diligence on hedge funds. Findings The details of the case are very remarkable. This case directs investors’ attention to place greater efforts on certain aspects of operational risk and due diligence on not only hedge funds but also other investment managers. Normally investors conduct operational due diligence on the fund and its operations. Investors also vet fund external parties such as prime brokers, custodians, accountants and fund administrators. Yet, investors normally do not suspect the quality of short-term fund investments. In this case, the short-terms investments were the source of unforeseen yet substantial risk. Research limitations/implications Stakeholders in hedge funds need to carefully investigate the issuer of and the quality of short-term investments that a hedge fund invests in. Future research can investigate the association of hedge fund manager failure with a liquidity position of the fund. Practical implications Investors must thoroughly the entirety of the fund including short-term securities. Originality/value Normally, it is the hedge funds that commit the fraud against investors. In this case, it is the multi-billion hedge funds run by sophisticated fund managers, who are the victims.

Modeling of implied volatility surfaces of nifty index options

2019 ◽  
Vol 06 (03) ◽  
pp. 1950028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihir Dash
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Strike Price ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Call Options ◽  
Merton Model ◽  
Implied Volatility Surface ◽  
Black Scholes ◽  
Volatility Surface ◽  
Implied Volatility Surfaces

The implied volatility of an option contract is the value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which equates the theoretical option value from an option pricing model (typically, the Black–Scholes[Formula: see text]Merton model) to the current market price of the option. The concept of implied volatility has gained in importance over historical volatility as a forward-looking measure, reflecting expectations of volatility (Dumas et al., 1998). Several studies have shown that the volatilities implied by observed market prices exhibit a pattern very different from that assumed by the Black–Scholes[Formula: see text]Merton model, varying with strike price and time to expiration. This variation of implied volatilities across strike price and time to expiration is referred to as the volatility surface. Empirically, volatility surfaces for global indices have been characterized by the volatility skew. For a given expiration date, options far out-of-the-money are found to have higher implied volatility than those with an exercise price at-the-money. For short-dated expirations, the cross-section of implied volatilities as a function of strike is roughly V-shaped, but has a rounded vertex and is slightly tilted. Generally, this V-shape softens and becomes flatter for longer dated expirations, but the vertex itself may rise or fall depending on whether the term structure of at-the-money volatility is upward or downward sloping. The objective of this study is to model the implied volatility surfaces of index options on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), India. The study employs the parametric models presented in Dumas et al. (1998); Peña et al. (1999), and several subsequent studies to model the volatility surfaces across moneyness and time to expiration. The present study contributes to the literature by studying the nature of the stationary point of the implied volatility surface and by separating the in-the-money and out-of-the-money components of the implied volatility surface. The results of the study suggest that an important difference between the implied volatility surface of index call and put options: the implied volatility surface of index call options was found to have a minimum point, while that of index put options was found to have a saddlepoint. The results of the study also indicate the presence of a “volatility smile” across strike prices, with a minimum point in the range of 2.3–9.0% in-the-money for index call options and of 10.7–29.3% in-the-money for index put options; further, there was a jump in implied volatility in the transition from out-of-the-moneyness to in-the-moneyness, by 10.0% for index call options and about 1.9% for index put options.

Macroeconomic information and implied volatility: evidence from Australian index options

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Tanha ◽  
Michael Dempsey ◽  
Terrence Hallahan
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Return Distribution ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Macroeconomic Information ◽  
State Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Announcements ◽  
State Price Density ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to understand that option pricing is the response of option implied volatility (IV) to macroeconomic announcements. Design/methodology/approach – The authors use high-frequency data on ASX SPI 200 index options to examine the response of option IV, as well as higher moments of the underlying return distribution, to macroeconomic announcements. Additionally, the authors identify the response of the moments as a function of moneyness of the options. Findings – The findings suggest that in-the-money and out-of-the money options have difference characteristics in their responses, leading to the conclusion that heterogeneity in investor beliefs and preferences affect option IV through the state price density (SPD) function. Originality/value – The research contributes to the literature that examines whether IV captures the beliefs of market participants about the likelihood of future states together with the preferences of market participants towards these states. In particular, the authors relate changes in option IV to changes in macroeconomic announcements, through the impact of these announcements on the moments of the SPD function.

Hedge fund manager fraud through PIPEs

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 636-645
Author(s):  
Majed R. Muhtaseb
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Fund Manager ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Hedge Fund Manager

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to draw lessons to investors from the conduct of a hedge fund manager who according to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) complaint made false and misleading statements before and after an auditor’s reports, misappropriated for personal benefit over $1m, misappropriated clients’ assets, failed to conduct due diligence on third-party buyer, instructed an employee to mislead investors and satisfied some investors’ redemptions with other investors’ subscriptions (Ponzi scheme) without disclosing it to investors. Ironically, the scheme was unveiled by the economic crises and not the investors, their advisers or third-party hedge fund vendors. Corey Ribotsky set up the investment adviser NIR Group to manage four AJW Funds that invested in private equity in public companies in 1999. Through manipulation of financial statements, he also managed to collect about $136m in management and incentive fees over an eight-year period. The SEC complaint alleged the AJW Funds’ assets to be $876m in 2007, yet this figure was not verified, and no assets were traced. Ribotsky did not pay any monies to SEC, as ordered by court settlement, and hence the victims did not recover any of their monies. The SEC could not produce criminal charges; hence, Ribotsky did not go to jail. This case highlights sterility of law enforcement when confronted with brazen fraud. Findings Investors fail to monitor hedge fund managers. Fraud was detected late and not through investors. Fraud was unraveled by the economic crises of 2008. The SEC had sued the fund manager. The fund manager consented to making payment to the SEC but did not make any payments. The SEC could not bring evidence to criminally charge the fund manager. Research limitations/implications The findings based on the case study are valuable to investors and hedge fund industry stakeholders. The findings are not based on an empirical study. Practical implications Investors need to carefully vet all hedge fund managers before allocating and funds and understand how managers make money through the claimed strategy. Also, there are limitations to law enforcement even with confronted with profound fraud schemes. Originality/value The case was built up from public sources to benefit investors considering making allocations to hedge fund managers. The public information about the case is of either legalistic or journalistic in nature.

Hedge fund managers and deceit: is the accusation of performance manipulation valid?

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary Alexander Smith ◽  
Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz
Keyword(s):  
Hedge Fund ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Extreme Bounds Analysis ◽  
Positive Performance ◽  
Performance Results ◽  
Hedge Fund Performance ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Global Stock

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether there is significant evidence that hedge fund managers engage in deceptive manipulation of their reported performance results. Design/methodology/approach A model of hedge fund performance has been developed using standard regression analysis incorporating dependent lagged variables and an autoregressive process. In addition, the extreme bounds analysis technique has been used to examine the robustness and sensitivity of the explanatory variables. Finally, the conditional influence of the global stock market’s returns on hedge fund performance and the conditional return behavior of the Hedge Fund Index’s performance have been explored. Findings This paper begins by identifying a model of hedge fund performance using passive index funds that is well specified and robust. Next, the lag structure associated with hedge fund returns has been examined and it has been determined that it seems to take the hedge fund managers two months to integrate the global stock market’s returns into their reported performance; however, the lagged variables were reduced from the final model. The paper continues to explore the smoothing behavior by conditioning the dependent lagged variables on positive and negative returns and find that managers are conservative in their estimates of positive performance events, but, when experiencing a negative result, they seem to attempt to rapidly integrate that effect into the return series. The strength of their integration increases as the magnitude of the negative performance increases. Finally, the performance of returns for both the Hedge Fund Index and the passive indices were examined and no significant differences between the conditional returns were found. Research limitations/implications The results of this analysis illustrate that hedge fund performance is not all that different from the performance of passive indices included in this paper, although it does offer investors access to a unique return distribution. From a management perspective, we are reminded that we need to be cautious about hastily arriving at conclusions about something that looks different or feels different from everything else, because, at times, our preconceived notions will cause us to avoid participating in something that may add value to our organizations. From an investment perspective, sometimes having something that looks and behaves differently from everything else, improves our investment experience. Originality/value This paper provides a well-specified and robust model of hedge fund performance and uses extreme bounds analysis to test the robustness of this model. This paper also investigates the smoothing behavior of hedge fund performance by segmenting the returns into two cohorts, and it finds that the smoothing behavior is only significant after the hedge funds produce positive performance results, the strength of the relationship between the global stock market and hedge fund performance is more economically significant if the market has generated a negative performance result in the previous period, and that as the previous period’s performance becomes increasingly negative, the strength of the relationship between the Hedge Fund Index and the global stock market increases.

Which Option Pricing Model Is the Best? HF Data for Nikkei 225 Index Options

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (51) ◽  
pp. 18-39
Author(s):  
Kokoszczyński Ryszard ◽  
Sakowski Paweł ◽  
Ślepaczuk Robert
Keyword(s):  
Option Pricing ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Pricing Models ◽  
Index Options ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Pricing Errors ◽  
Volatility Model

Abstract In this study, we analyse the performance of option pricing models using 5-minutes transactional data for the Japanese Nikkei 225 index options. We compare 6 different option pricing models: the Black (1976) model with different assumptions about the volatility process (realized volatility with and without smoothing, historical volatility and implied volatility), the stochastic volatility model of Heston (1993) and the GARCH(1,1) model. To assess the model performance, we use median absolute percentage error based on differences between theoretical and transactional options prices. We present our results with respect to 5 classes of option moneyness, 5 classes of option time to maturity and 2 option types (calls and puts). The Black model with implied volatility (BIV) comes as the best and the GARCH(1,1) as the worst one. For both call and put options, we observe the clear relation between average pricing errors and option moneyness: high error values for deep OTM options and the best fit for deep ITM options. Pricing errors also depend on time to maturity, although this relationship depend on option moneyness. For low value options (deep OTM and OTM), we obtained lower errors for longer maturities. On the other hand, for high value options (ITM and deep ITM) pricing errors are lower for short times to maturity. We obtained similar average pricing errors for call and put options. Moreover, we do not see any advantage of much complex and time-consuming models. Additionally, we describe liquidity of the Nikkei225 option pricing market and try to compare the results we obtain here with a detailed study for Polish emerging option market (Kokoszczyński et al. 2010b).

Empirical patterns of time value decay in options

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-449
Author(s):  
Ryan McKeon
Keyword(s):  
Active Management ◽  
Time Decay ◽  
Equity Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Holding Period ◽  
Time Value ◽  
Option Contract ◽  
Standardized Measure ◽  
Insight Into

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to conduct an empirical analysis of the pattern of time value decay in listed equity options, considering both call and put options and different moneyness and maturity levels. Design/methodology/approach The research design is empirical, with great attention paid to creating a standardized measure of time value that can be both tracked over time for an individual option contract and meaningfully compared across two or more different option contracts. Findings The author finds that moneyness classification at the beginning of the holding period is the key determinant of the pattern of subsequent time decay. The type of option, call or put, and the maturity of the contract have surprisingly little relevance to the pattern of time decay “out-the-money contracts having similar patterns on average, regardless of whether they are calls or puts, 30-day or 60-day contracts.” More detailed analysis reveals that In-the-money and out-the-money contracts have slow time decay for most of the contract life, with a significant percentage of the time decay concentrated on the final day of the option. At-the-money contracts experience strong decay early in the life of the option. Research limitations/implications The study is limited by not having intra-day data included to analyze more frequent price movements. Practical implications The results reported in the paper provide insight into issues of active management facing options traders, specifically choices such as the initial maturity of the option contract and rollover frequency. Originality/value Very few studies examine the important issue of how option time value behaves. Time value is the subjective part of the option contract value, and therefore very difficult to predict and understand. This paper provides insight into typical empirical patterns of time value behavior.

The economic determinants of the implied volatility function for currency options

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1798-1819
Author(s):  
Aparna Prasad Bhat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Volatility Smile ◽  
Currency Options ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Rupee ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Volatility Function ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the pattern of the implied volatility function for currency options traded on the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), identify its potential determinants and to investigate any seasonality in the pattern. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines four different specifications for the implied volatility smile of exchange-traded dollar-rupee options. These specifications are tested by running Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regressions on a daily basis for all options over the entire sample period. Seven potential determinants for the shape of the volatility function are identified. Contemporaneous and lead-lag relationships between these determinants and the shape of the volatility function are examined using OLS and multivariate VAR. Impulse response functions are employed to test the strength and persistence of the lead-lag relations. Seasonality of the smile pattern is tested using OLS. Findings The study shows that the implied volatility function for dollar-rupee options is asymmetric and varies with the time to maturity of the option. Historical volatility, momentum and jumps in the exchange rate, time to maturity, traded volume of options and volatility in the stock market appear to Granger-cause the shape of the volatility smile. Feedback causality is observed from the shape of the smile to the volatility, momentum and jumps in the exchange rate and trading volume of currency options. A weak day-of-the-week effect is observed in the pattern of the volatility smile. Practical implications The study sheds light on the potential determinants of the smile and highlights the predictive power of the smile which findings can be useful to market practitioners for pricing and hedging of dollar-rupee options. The study has strong practical implications during a period of increased volatility in the dollar-rupee pair. Originality/value Most of the existing literature regarding implied volatility smiles has focused either on the volatility smile of US equity index options or that of major liquid currencies. There is a need for such studies in the context of options on emerging market currencies such as the Indian rupee which are characterized by thin trading and frequent central bank intervention and signaling. To the best of the author’s knowledge this study is the first to focus on the volatility smile of exchange-traded options on the US dollar–Indian rupee.

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