Evaluating the key risk factors in PPP-procured mass housing projects in Nigeria: a Delphi study of industry experts

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bamidele Temitope Arijeloye ◽  
Isaac Olaniyi Aje ◽  
Ayodeji Emmanuel Oke
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Delphi Survey ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Item Score ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Housing Projects ◽  
Mass Housing

Purpose The purpose of the study is to elicit risk factors that are peculiar to public-private partnership (PPP)-procured mass housing in Nigeria from the expert perspectives in ensuring the success of the scheme thereby reducing housing deficit in the country. Design/methodology/approach The risk inherent in construction projects had been established through literature in general. The risk in PPP projects is emerging because of the recent acceptance of the procurement option by governments all over the globe. The Nigerian Government has also adopted the procurement option in bridging the housing deficit in the country. This study, therefore, conducts a Delphi survey on the probability of risk occurrence peculiar to PPP mass housing projects (MHPs) in Nigeria. Pragmatic research approach through the mixed method of both quantitative and qualitative methods was adopted for this study. The quantitative method adopts the administration of questionnaires through the Delphi survey, whereas the qualitative method used interviews with the respondents. A two-stage Delphi questionnaire was administered to construction practitioners that cut across academics, the public and the private sectors by adopting convenient sampling techniques and following the Delphi principles and procedures. A total of 63 risk factors were submitted to the expert to rank on a Likert scale of 7 and any risk factors that the mean item score (MIS) falls below the grading scale of the five-point benchmark is deemed not necessary a risk factor associated with PPP MHPs and thereby expunged from the second round of the Delphi Survey. The interview was subsequently applied to the respondents to substantiate the risk factors that are peculiar to PPP-procured mass housing in the study area. Findings The findings show that risk factors such as maintenance frequent than expected, life of facility shorter than anticipated and maintenance cost higher than expected fall below 5.0 benchmark with MIS of 4.64 and 4.55 indicating that the risk factors are not peculiar to PPP mass housing in Nigeria. Research limitations/implications The implication for practise of this research is that these risk factors provide the PPP stakeholders with the comprehensive checklists that can aid in developing PPP risk assessment guidelines in the sector though both partners should be aware of the dynamic nature of risk because new ones might be emerging. Originality/value The authors hereby declare that the research findings are a product of a thorough research conducted in the study area and have not to be submitted or published by another person or publisher and due acknowledgement was made where necessary.

Unravelling the risks of construction digitalisation in developing countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Aghimien ◽  
Clinton Aigbavboa ◽  
Tsholofelo Meno ◽  
Matthew Ikuabe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Security Operations

Purpose This study aims to present the result of an assessment of the risk of construction digitalisation with a view to sensitising and preparing construction organisations for unforeseen issues that might arise in the course of their digital transformation. Design/methodology/approach The study took a post-positivist stance through a quantitative research approach. A survey of construction professionals actively involved in construction projects in South Africa was conducted using a structured questionnaire. The analysis of the data gathered was done using mean item scores, Kruskal–Wallis H test, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM). Findings EFA revealed five principal risk factors (human and financial, technological, legal and security, operations and socioeconomic risk factors) associated with the digitalisation of construction organisations. However, SEM revealed that four out of these risk components have significant direct relationships with some selected digitalisation outcomes. These significant risk factors are technology, legal and security issues, operations and socioeconomic issues. Originality/value This study provides practical insight into the risk inherent in construction digitalisation, and its result can help organisations seeking to be digitally transformed make informed decisions. Theoretically, the study reveals the risks associated with construction digitalisation – an aspect that has not gained significant attention in the current fourth industrial revolution discourse. Therefore, its findings can form a basis for future studies on the risk of digitalising construction organisations.

A fuzzy model for evaluating risk impacts on variability between contract sum and final account in government-funded construction projects

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Effah Ameyaw ◽  
Albert P.C. Chan ◽  
De-Graft Owusu-Manu ◽  
Ekow Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Principal Component Factor Analysis ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Client Factors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify and then evaluate perceived risk factors influencing variability between contract sum and final count, and to develop a fuzzy risk assessment model for evaluating the overall impact of established critical risk factors impacting on variability between contract sum and final account in government-funded construction projects. Construction projects are characterised by risk factors that significantly impact on variability between the contract sum and final account. Design/methodology/approach – A research approach integrating questionnaire survey, mean scoring ranking and principal component factor analysis (PCFA) methods was adopted to evaluate and classify the critical risk factors. A fuzzy synthetic evaluation method was sequentially applied to compute the overall risk impact (ORI) of eight critical risk factors’ impact on variability between contract sum and final account. Findings – Initial results showed that eight critical risk factors have high impact on variations between contract sum and final account, namely (in order): project funding problems, underestimation of quantities, variations by client, change in scope of works, inadequate specification, change in design by client, defects in design and unexpected site (ground) conditions. PCFA produced two factor solutions: “professional-related factors” and “client factors”. The fuzzy model further showed that the ORI is 5.48, indicating that these risk factors have a high impact on variability between contract sum and final account in public construction projects. The client factors have a very high impact (5.59), while the professional-related factors indicated a high impact (5.41) on project cost variability. Originality/value – A practical model is proposed to evaluate the key risks associated with cost overruns in public projects. By giving effective and sustained attention to these factors, variability between contract sum and final account, a common situation in Ghana, can be controlled to achieve cost savings in public infrastructure projects.

Evaluating key risk factors for PPP water projects in Ghana: a Delphi study

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernest Effah Ameyaw ◽  
Albert P.C. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Rank Order ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Risk Allocation ◽  
Water Projects ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Political Interference

Purpose – This paper aims to report on the partial findings of a research project on risk allocation in public–private partnership (PPP) water projects. It identifies risk factors encountered in PPP water infrastructure projects, evaluates their associated risk levels and presents an authoritative risk factor list to assist the sector institutions to understand the important risks associated with such projects in Ghana. Design/methodology/approach – A ranking-type Delphi survey was conducted to develop a rank-order list of critical risk factors. Findings – Twenty critical risk factors with high impact on water PPPs were established. The top-five risks relate to foreign exchange rate, corruption, water theft, non-payment of bills and political interference. Originality/value – Being the pioneering study, it holds implications for practitioners. By prioritising the risks according to their relative impacts on the success of water PPP projects, public and private participants will become more aware of and leverage efforts and scarce resources to address those significant factors with serious consequences on projects objectives. The paper adopts a research approach that can be used by future researchers in similar environments where PPP is novel and experts are hard to find.

Managing integration in infrastructure alliance projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna-Maija Hietajärvi ◽  
Kirsi Aaltonen ◽  
Harri Haapasalo
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complex Projects ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Project Organizations ◽  
Integration Mechanisms ◽  
Organizational Integration ◽  
Time Critical

Purpose The effective management of inter-organizational integration is central to complex projects. Such projects pose significant challenges for integration, as organizations struggle with constantly changing inter-organizational interdependencies and must develop and adapt integration mechanisms to meet new demands. The purpose of this paper is to understand what kinds of integration mechanisms are used and how they are developed and adjusted during the infrastructure alliance projects. Design/methodology/approach This study provides empirical evidence of integration dynamics in project alliancing by analyzing two infrastructure alliance projects – a complex tunnel construction project and a railway renovation project. The research approach is an inductive case study. Findings This paper identifies integration mechanisms adopted in two case projects and three central triggers that led to changes in the integration mechanisms: project lifecycle phase, unexpected events and project team’s learning during the project. Practical implications Integration capability should be a precondition for alliance project organizations and requires the adoption of a wide range of integration mechanisms, as well as an ability to adjust those mechanisms in response to everyday dynamics and emergent situations. Originality/value Although unplanned contingencies and the responses to them represent important influences in organizations, there is limited amount of research on the dynamics of integration. The findings will be of value in supporting the management of inter-organizational integration in complex, uncertain and time-critical construction projects.

Risk analysis of construction of administration projects using Bayesian networks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Osama ◽  
Aly Sherif ◽  
Mohamed Badawy
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Causal Relationships ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Life Cycle ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Project Life

Purpose This paper aims to enlighten the importance of the risk management process which is considered as a major procedure to effectively handle the potential inherent risks in the construction industry. However, most traditional risk analysis techniques are based on theories that deal with each risk factor as an independent, which does not take into consideration the causal relationships between risk factors. Design/methodology/approach This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using Bayesian belief networks (BBN). Through a review of the literature, 27 risk factors were identified and categorized as the most common risk factors in the construction industry. A structured questionnaire was performed to estimate the probability and severity of these risks. Through site visits and interviews with experts in the construction field, 200 valid questionnaires were collected. A risk analysis model was developed using BBNs, then the applicability of this model was verified using a case study in Egypt. Findings However, the outcome showed that critical risks that manipulate administrative construction projects in Egypt were corruption and bribery, contractor financial difficulties, force majeure, damage to the structure and defective material installation. Practical implications The proposed study presents the possibilities available to the project parties to obtain a better forecast of the project objectives, including the project duration, total project cost and the target quality by examining the causal relationships between project risks and project objectives. Originality/value This study aspires to identify the overall risk of the administrative construction projects in Egypt and to recognize the most influencing risk factors through the project life cycle by using BBNs.

Structural modelling of internal risk factors for oil and gas construction projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 975-1000
Author(s):  
Mukhtar A. Kassem ◽  
Muhamad Azry Khoiry ◽  
Noraini Hamzah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Project Success ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Path Coefficient ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose Project failure is the result of one or a combination of several causes of risk factors that are very important to identify for effective performance. This study aims to focus on studying the fundamental relationship between internal risk factors and the negative effect on oil and gas project success in Yemen using the partial least square structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) method. Design/methodology/approach Data collection was carried out using a formal questionnaire survey of the oil field sector in Yemen by companies involved in mega-oil and gas construction projects. A hierarchical model for determining causative internal risk factors and their effects was developed and evaluated using SEM method by SmartPLS3 software technology. Findings The findings of analyzing model indicate that all categories have a significant effect on project success, while the most significant affected categories in the internal risk factors are project management factors, feasibility study-design and resources-material supply with a path coefficient value of 0.213, 0.197 and 0.186, respectively. Moreover, for the hypotheses test, the positive relationship means that all experimental hypotheses are accepted according to path coefficient value analysis. In addition, the internal risk factors research model shows the ranking of effects on project success starting with project stoppage (loading factor 0.841), cost overruns (loading factor 0.818), time overruns (loading factor 0.726) and project target failure with loading factor 0.539. Research limitations/implications The research was limited to the oil and gas construction projects in Yemen. Practical implications Interpreting the relationship between internal risk factors and their impact on the success of construction projects in the oil and gas sector will assist project team and oil companies in developing risk response strategies and developing appropriate plans to mitigate the effects of risks, which is presented in this paper. Originality/value The paper explains the relationship between cause and effect of internal risk factors in oil and gas projects in Yemen, and is expected to be a guideline for the oil companies and future academic research in the risk management area.

Risk mitigation modelling of international construction projects executed by Indian firms: a structural equation modelling approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2687-2713
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar Viswanathan ◽  
Kumar Neeraj Jha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Firms ◽  
International Construction ◽  
Equation Modelling ◽  
International Projects

PurposeA number of previous studies have investigated international construction project risks and have proposed risk mitigation measures without examining their interdependence. The purpose of the current study is to identify the influence of various risk mitigation measures on macro-level risk factors in the international marketplace.Design/methodology/approachThe authors initially identified 26 risk variables and nine risk mitigation measures through a literature review, which were then verified for their pertinence to international projects by three experts. Subsequently, 105 questionnaire survey responses were collected and analysed using factor analysis and structural equation modelling to test the interrelations between the risk variables and mitigation measures.FindingsThe findings suggest that joint ventures with local partners is emerged as the most critical risk mitigation measure that influences the international projects, which are exposed to political, project and firm-specific risk factors. Further, it is worth noting that among the recognised risk mitigation measures in international projects, offering more local employment is the least critical mitigation measure in the international projects.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings of this study are based on the macro-risk factors encountered by Indian construction firms in international projects, mostly from specific Asian and African regions. Thus, the opinions of construction firms from the developed countries might be different.Originality/valueThe main contribution of this study to existing knowledge is empirical evidence of the interrelationships between risk mitigation measures and risk factors that are portrayed as latent variables of different manifest risk variables. The generated model can assist construction firms in emphasising several risk mitigation methods, in order to reduce risk and enhance performance in international construction projects.

A stakeholder-based risk assessment and intervention framework for international construction projects

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Wang ◽  
Shangde Gao ◽  
Pinchao Liao ◽  
Tsenguun Ganbat ◽  
Junhua Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
The Body ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Construction ◽  
Project Objectives

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to construct a two-stage risk management framework for international construction projects based on the meta-network analysis (MNA) approach. A plethora of international construction studies seems to assume risks as independent and therefore, risk intervention strategies are usually critiqued as ineffective. Design/methodology/approach In the risk assessment stage, a multi-tiered risk network structure was developed with the project objectives, risk events, risk factors and stakeholders, and critical risk factors were selected based on a series of calculations. In the risk intervention stage, targeted risk intervention strategies were proposed for stakeholders based on the results of the first stage. A highway construction project in Eastern Europe was selected as a case study. Findings The results showed that 17 risk factors in three categories – external, stakeholder-related and internal – are critical, and the project manager, construction management department, supplier and contract department are the most critical stakeholders that affect the entire project performance. Based on the critical risk factors and project stakeholders, targeted risk intervention strategies were proposed. The risk assessment results of MNA were found to be more reliable and consistent with the project conditions than the risk matrix method; the risk intervention strategies of MNA can effectively address project objectives. Originality/value This study modeled risk priorities based on risk associations and put forward a new method for risk management, supplementing the body of knowledge of international construction. The results of this study are of critical importance in management practices.

Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for guaranteed maximum price and target cost contracts in South Australia

Facilities ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 624-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel W.M. Chan ◽  
Joseph H.L. Chan ◽  
Tony Ma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Target Cost ◽  
Fuzzy Risk Assessment

Purpose – This paper aims to develop a fuzzy risk assessment model for construction projects procured with target cost contracts and guaranteed maximum price contracts (TCC/GMP) using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, based on an empirical questionnaire survey with relevant industrial practitioners in South Australia. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 34 major risk factors inherent with TCC/GMP contracts were identified through an extensive literature review and a series of structured interviews. A questionnaire survey was then launched to solicit the opinions of industrial practitioners on risk assessment of such risk factors. Findings – The most important 14 key risk factors after the computation of normalised values were selected for undertaking fuzzy evaluation analysis. Five key risk groups (KRGs) were then generated in descending order of importance as: physical risks, lack of experience of contracting parties throughout TCC/GMP procurement process, design risks, contractual risks and delayed payment on contracts. These survey findings also revealed that physical risks may be the major hurdle to the success of TCC/GMP projects in South Australia. Practical implications – Although the fuzzy risk assessment model was developed for those new-build construction projects procured by TCC/GMP contracts in this paper, the same research methodology may be applied to other contracts within the wide spectrum of facilities management or building maintenance services under the target cost-based model. Therefore, the contribution from this paper could be extended to the discipline of facilities management as well. Originality/value – An overall risk index associated with TCC/GMP construction projects and the risk indices of individual KRGs can be generated from the model for reference. An objective and a holistic assessment can be achieved. The model has provided a solid platform to measure, evaluate and reduce the risk levels of TCC/GMP projects based on objective evidence instead of subjective judgements. The research methodology could be replicated in other countries or regions to produce similar models for international comparisons, and the assessment of risk levels for different types of TCC/GMP projects (including new-build or maintenance) worldwide.

scholarly journals Exploring the design risk factors for modular integrated construction projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Yahaya Wuni ◽  
Geoffrey Qiping Shen ◽  
Maxwell Fordjour Antwi-Afari
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Uncertain Data ◽  
System Thinking ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Knowledge Based

Purpose Modular integrated construction (MiC) is considered as a process innovation to improve the performance of construction projects. However, effective delivery of MiC projects requires management of risks and uncertainties throughout its delivery chain. Although the design stage of MiC projects is usually managed with limited knowledge based on highly uncertain data and associated with epistemic uncertainties, MiC design risks have not received adequate research attention relative to other stages. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a knowledge-based evaluation and ranking of the design risk factors (DRFs) for MiC projects. Design/methodology/approach The paper reviewed the relevant literature to identify potential DRFs and validated their relevance through pilot expert review. The paper then used questionnaires to gather data from international MiC experts from 18 countries and statistically analyzed the data set. Findings Analysis results showed that the five most significant DRFs for MiC projects include unsuitability of design for the MiC method; late involvement of suppliers, fabricators and contractors; inaccurate information, defective design and change order; design information gap between the designer and fabricator; and lack of bespoke MiC design codes and guidelines. A correlation analysis showed that majority of the DRFs have statistically significant positive relationships and could inform practitioners on the dynamic links between the DRFs. Practical implications The paper provides useful insight and knowledge to MiC practitioners and researchers on the risk factors that could compromise the success of MiC project designs and may inform design risk management. The dynamic linkages among the DRFs instruct the need to adopt a system-thinking philosophy in MiC project design. Originality/value This paper presents the first study that specifically evaluates and prioritizes the risk events at the design stage of MiC projects. It sets forth recommendations for addressing the identified DRFs for MiC projects.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document