Financial integration via panel cointegration approaches in ASEAN+5

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najla Shafighi ◽  
Abu Hassan Shaari ◽  
Behrooz Gharleghi ◽  
Tamat Sarmidi ◽  
Khairuddin Omar
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mlp Neural Network ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify whether any financial integration exists among ASEAN+5 members and some East Asian countries, including China, Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, through interest rate, exchange rate, level of prices, and real output. Design/methodology/approach – Therefore, the authors intend to identify any long-term relationship among these variables utilizing the data in the most efficient manner via panel cointegration and panel unit root tests. The study likewise uses a panel-based vector error correction (panel-vec) model for comparison and also short-run relationship analysis. The long-run relationship is estimated using dynamic ordinary least square technique and a panel multi-layer perceptron (MLP) neural network. Findings – For the ten countries under consideration, the empirical result supports the long-run equilibrium relationship among real output, exchange rate, interest rate, and level of prices, and that the cointegration relationship implies unidirectional causality from exchange rate to real output. This result is favorable to a model that contains real output as a dependent variable and exchange rate, interest rate, and level of prices as explanatory variables. Panel-vec results indicate no evidence of short-run causality from exchange rate to real output. Furthermore, the comparison result of long-run equation estimation shows the superiority of neural networks over econometric models. Originality/value – This paper adds to the literature by examining the financial cointegration using a panel model that contains real exchange rate, interest rate, real output, and inflation rate in ASEAN+5. Additionally this paper applied the MLP neural network to yield a robust estimation of the long-run equation obtained among the variables.

The determinants of ASEAN-5 real effective exchange rate vis-á-vis the UK pound

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdalrahman AbuDalu ◽  
Elsadig Musa Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present an empirical analysis of long-run and short-run forcing variables of purchasing power parity (PPP) for ASEAN-5 currencies vis-à-vis the UK pound, i.e. their real effective exchange rate (REER). Design/methodology/approach – This study uses a recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration (Pesaran et al., 2001) over the period 1991:Q1-2006:Q2. Our empirical results suggest that the foreign interest rate (R*) and domestic money supply (M1) are the significant long-run forcing variables of PPP for ASEAN-5 REERs for the three periods. Findings – In the short-run, the variables have different impacts during the sub-periods and full period for ASEAN-5 countries. The results suggest that the domestic money supply (M1) for Malaysia, domestic interest rate and foreign interest rate (R*) for Indonesia, domestic money supply (M1) and term of trades (TOT) for Philippines, foreign interest rate (R*) for Thailand, and foreign interest rate (R*) and net foreign assets (NFA) for Singapore, respectively, have the highest significant short-run forcing variable of PPP for countries REERs. Originality/value – In this respect, the outcomes can derive policy implication for the monetary authorities in these ASEAN-5 countries.

Exploring the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and sovereign credit default swap in Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 368-380
Author(s):  
Abdul Rashid ◽  
Farooq Ahmad ◽  
Ammara Yasmin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose This paper aims to empirically examine the long- and short-run relationship between macroeconomic indicators (exchange rates, interest rates, exports, imports, foreign reserves and the rate of inflation) and sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) spreads for Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore the level relationship between the macroeconomic variables and SCDS spreads. The error correction model is estimated to examine the short-run effects of the underlying macroeconomic variables on SCDS spreads. Finally, the long-run estimates are obtained in the ARDL framework. The study uses monthly data covering the period January 2001-February 2015. Findings The results indicate that there is a significant long-run relationship between the macroeconomic indicators and SCDS spreads. The estimated long-run coefficients reveal that both the interest rate and foreign exchange reserves are significantly and negatively, whereas imports and the rate of inflation are positively related to SCDS spreads. Yet, the results suggest that the exchange rate and exports do not have any significant long-run impact on SCDS spreads. The findings regarding the short-run relationship indicate that the exchange rate, imports and the rate of inflation are positively, whereas the interest rate and exports are negatively related to SCDS spreads. Practical implications The results suggest that State Bank of Pakistan should design monetary and foreign exchange rate polices to minimize unwanted variations in the exchange rate to reduce SCDS spreads. The results also suggest that it is incumbent to Pakistan Government to improve the balance of payments to reduce SCDS spreads. The findings also suggest that the inflation targeting policy can also help in reducing SCDS spreads. Originality/value This is the first study to examine the empirical determinants of SCDS spreads for Pakistan. Second, it estimates the short- and long-run effects in the ARDL framework. Third, it considers both internal and external empirical determinants of SCDS spreads.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Gold Prices

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam-Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Japanese Yen

The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese yuan per dollar, Japanese yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship.References

Symmetric and asymmetric adjustment of bank deposit interest rates: empirical evidence from Kenya

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses Nzuki Nyangu ◽  
Freshia Wangari Waweru ◽  
Nyankomo Marwa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adjustment Speed ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

PurposeThis paper examines the sluggish adjustment of deposit interest rate categories with response to policy rate changes in a developing economy.Design/methodology/approachSymmetric and asymmetric error correction models (ECMs) are employed to test the pass-through effect and adjustment speed of deposit rates when above or below their equilibrium levels.FindingsThe findings reveal an incomplete pass-through effect in both the short run and long run while mixed results of symmetric and asymmetric adjustment speed across the different deposit rate categories are observed. Collusive pricing arrangement behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly upwards than downwards, while negative customer reaction behavior is supported by deposit rate categories that adjust more rigidly downwards than upwards.Practical implicationsEven though the findings indicate an aspect of increased responsiveness over the period, the sluggish adjustment of deposit rates imply that monetary policy is still ineffective and not uniform across the different deposit rate categories.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to empirically examine both symmetric and asymmetric adjustment behavior of deposit interest rate categories in Kenya. The findings are key to policy makers as they provide insights on how long it takes to adjust different deposit rate categories to monetary policy decisions. In addition, the behavior of deposit rates partly explains why interest rates capping was imposed in Kenya in 2016.

Re-examining the twin deficit hypothesis for major South Asian economies

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-287
Author(s):  
Shruti Shastri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to revisit the twin deficit hypothesis (TDH) and provide insights into the transmission mechanism connecting budget deficits and current account deficits for five major South Asian countries, namely, India, Bangladesh, Pakistan Sri Lanka and Nepal for the period 1985-2016. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a multivariate framework including real interest rate, real exchange rate and real gross domestic product to avoid the possibility of incorrect inferences caused by omission of relevant mediating variables. The long-run relationship and causality are investigated through the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach and Toda Yamamoto approach, respectively, for each individual country. The robustness of the results is assessed with the help of Westerlund’s cointegration test and group mean fully modified ordinary least squares (GM-FMOLS), group mean dynamic ordinary least square (GM-DOLS) and common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimators in the panel framework. Findings Both time series and panel evidences indicate long-run relationship between budget balance (BB) and current account balance (CAB) together with the mediating variables. The results indicate bi-directional causation between the two balances for India and Bangladesh, TDH for Pakistan and Sri Lanka and the reverse causation from CAB to BB for Nepal. Regarding the transmission mechanism, the results indicate the absence of the causal chain postulated by Mundell–Fleming, which predicts that BB causes CAB via interest rate and exchange rate. A CCEMG estimate of the import demand function reveals a positive government spending elasticity of imports suggesting that BB affects CAB by direct impact through demand. Originality/value This study augments the twin deficit literature on South Asian countries by providing insights into the transmission mechanism connecting the BB and CAB. Moreover, the study provides robust evidences on the TDH by using both time series and panel data techniques.

An empirical note on entrepreneurship and unemployment

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E Payne
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Capita Personal Income

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to extend the existing literature on the causal dynamics between entrepreneurship and the unemployment rate (UR) in the use of the Kauffman Foundation index of entrepreneurial activity. Design/methodology/approach – Recently developed panel unit root tests with recognition of cross-sectional dependence and panel cointegration/error correction modeling techniques are applied to US States. Findings – The results indicate that the rate of entrepreneurship, the UR, and real per capita personal income are cointegrated. The panel error correction model reveals that bidirectional causality exists among the variables in both the short run and long run. With respect to entrepreneurship, an increase in the UR increases the rate of entrepreneurship, in turn, an increase in the rate of entrepreneurship lowers the UR. Moreover, the results also show a positive bidirectional relationship between the rate of entrepreneurship and real per capita personal income. Originality/value – Unlike other standard measures of entrepreneurship, this is the first empirical study of the causal dynamics between entrepreneurship and the UR using the Kauffman Foundation index of entrepreneurial activity.

scholarly journals Asymmetries in the euro area and TFP growth: evidence from three major European economies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Bellocchi ◽  
Edgar Sanchez Carrera ◽  
Giuseppe Travaglini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Capital Misallocation ◽  
European Economies

PurposeIn this paper, the authors study the long-run determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in three major European economies over the period 1983–2017, namely Germany, France and Italy.Design/methodology/approachThe authors focus on the capital misallocation effects, scale effects and labor misallocation effects. To this end, the authors study how real interest rate shocks, real exchange rate shocks, real wage shocks and changes in labor regulation affected TFP in major European countries over the last decades. The authors employ a theoretical and an empirical model to investigate the issue. The empirical results are obtained using a VAR model for estimation.FindingsA stripped-down model of labor market in open economy with technology progress allows to identify the relevant variables affecting TFP. On the empirical ground, the authors find a positive relationship between TFP and real interest rate in the long run. Importantly, the authors detect a positive relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. Further, the authors show that the TFP can respond positively to a stricter labor market regulation and to a higher real compensation per employee. The results provide support to the idea that TFP has a positive relation with prices in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price rigidity.Research limitations/implicationsThe present model is stylized and may not capture all of the details of reality. The analysis should be extended to a larger number of countries. Technology progress could be proxied using different variables, as the R&D expenditure or the number of patents. Micro data, for specific sectors and industries, can improve the quality of the empirical investigation.Practical implicationsMainly the authors find that TFP has a positive relationship with price changes in the long run, while it may be biased along the cycle because of price stickiness. Capital misallocation and labor misallocation can negatively affect TFP. Thus, the observed divergences in European TFP can be traced back to the misallocation effects attributable to the decrease of real interest rate and real wages, together with the raising labor flexibility. Mainly, the authors detect a positive long-run relationship between TFP and real exchange rate. This outcome strengthens the supply-side view of the relationship between productivity and real exchange rate.Social implicationsThe authors believe that the present setup can be helpful to reflect critically on the nodes at the core of the productivity slowdown and asymmetries in the eurozone. The aim is to implement renewed policies in order to favor economic growth, convergence and stability in the euro area.Originality/valueThis research addresses the issue of asymmetries among European economies by focusing on the role played by real prices in the long run. Traditionally, the dynamics of TFP have been attributed only to technological components, human capital and knowledge. This work shows that the dynamics of prices such as the real interest rate, the real exchange rate and the real wage can also influence the technological process by pushing the production system toward choices that are not always optimal for economic growth. An interesting result of this research concerns the positive relationship between real exchange rates and TFP in the long term, evidence of an important supply-side effect on the technological process.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS ON EXPORT OF SOME SELECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN EMERGING AFRICAN COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-112
Author(s):  
E. A. OLUBIYI ◽  
F. KOLADE ◽  
D. A. DAIRO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Movement ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movement on export of five selected agricultural products, in five emerging countries in Africa. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was employed to analyse the data spanning 1995 to 2015. It was found that, in the short run, exchange rate has a mixed effect on the product across countries, that is, in some products and countries, exchange rate affects export positively, while in some countries and product exchange rate movement has a negative effect on export.  Further, exchange rate does not have long run effect on sugar and fruits and nuts in most of the countries.  Consequently, it is recommended that government, in countries where exchange rate depreciation increases export, should maintain depreciation. Further, there should be provision of adequate infrastructure that will enhance agricultural production.   In the same vein, interest rate on loans given to farmers should be minimal, so as to encourage borrowing to finance agricultural production.  This recommendation is mostly relevant to countries where interest rate affects export negatively.    

scholarly journals Bank Performance versus Recession Indicators: A Linear Cointegration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-15
Author(s):  
Ashamu Sikiru Oyerinde
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Rate Increase ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Increase With Increase ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

In this study, the researcher provides an empirical investigation of the nexus between banks’ performance and recession indicators. A sample size of 35 years was selected on annual data. A linear cointegration method was adopted after accounting for seasonality through logarithmic transformation. The results revealed that indicators of recession-exchange rate, inflation and interest rate maintain long run relationship with bank performance, and evidence of long run influence was established. Furthermore, we discover that within the purview of short run dynamic situation, inflation influences banks’ performance inversely, while exchange rate and interest rate increase with increase in banks’ performance. We therefore conclude that banks’ performance is driven by indicators of recession both in the short and in long run.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENGENDALIKAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Suriani Suriani
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Good Choice ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The objective of this research is to analize the effects of the variables interest rate, and exchange as one of monetary mecanisme for controlling inflation. The correlation among those variables is cointgration in the long run and short run equilibrium analyzed. In Indonesia, the monetary policy is run by monetary instruments (i.e. interest rates or monetary aggregates) to achieve price stability. This research used Unit Root Test , Cointegration Test, Granger causality and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) Test. The results of estimation showed that have cointegration among interest rate, exchange rate and inflation in the long run. Granger causality test showed that between inflation and interest rate have no causality relationship, but for inflation and exchange rate have two directions relationship of causality. It’s means, monetary of mecanisme transmition through exchange rate channel can be good choice in making monetary policy to control inflation in Indonesia.

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