Tests of a more comprehensive model of economic growth in lower middle-income countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a more comprehensive model of economic growth using a sample of 28 lower middle-income developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors modify the conventional neoclassical growth model to account for the impact of the increase in the number of people working relative to the total population and that of the increase in the value added per worker over time. The authors then extend this model by incorporating the role of trade, government consumption, and human capital in output growth. Findings Regression results show that over three quarters of cross-lower middle-income country variations in per capita GDP growth rate can be explained by per capita growth in the share of public expenditures on education in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of government consumption in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of imports in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of manufactured exports in the GDP (not of that of total exports in the GDP), and the growth of the working population relative to the total population. Practical implications Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in these countries identify policy fundamentals that are essential for economic growth. Originality/value To address the simultaneity bias, the authors develop a simultaneous equations model and are able to show that such model is more robust and helps explains cross-country variations in per capita GDP growth over the 2000-2014 period.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

Cointegration-causality analysis between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (8) ◽  
pp. 664-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aisha Ismail ◽  
Shehla Amjad
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is two folds: first, to analyze the long-run relationship between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators (GDP growth, GDP per capita, inflation and unemployment) and second, to determine the direction of causality between these variables in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – The relationship between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators is analyzed by applying Johansen cointegration analysis. Furthermore, the causality between terrorism and macroeconomic indicators is tested by applying Toda Yamamoto Granger causality test. Findings – The results show that there exists a long-run relationship between terrorism and key macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, the results suggest that there exists a bi-directional causality between terrorism and inflation. The causality between GDP per capita, unemployment, GDP growth and terrorism is unidirectional. Originality/value – There is a lack of research work conducted to analyze the long-run relationship and direction of causation between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators specifically for Pakistan. The current paper fills the gap in the literature by using sophisticated econometric techniques and recent data set to provide the evidence of the relationship between terrorism and various macroeconomic indicators.

The role of governance in economic development

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (12) ◽  
pp. 1265-1278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azam ◽  
Chandra Emirullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Dependency Ratio ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Openness To Trade ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of corruption as an important element of weak governance, with control variables such as inflation rate, openness to trade and dependency ratio on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita income of nine selected countries in Asia and the Pacific. Design/methodology/approach – This study is based on an annual panel data covering the period from 1985 to 2012, and a simple multiple regression for empirical investigation is used. Both fixed effects and random effects models were used as analytical techniques. Findings – The study reveals that both corruption and inflation rate are negatively related to GDP per capita and are statistically significant. As to the impacts of the control variables i.e., dependency ratio is found to be negative and openness to trade to be statistically significant which shows a positive impact on GDP per capita. Practical implications – The results resoundingly confirmed the importance of good governance, therefore, reducing endemic corruption and controlling inflation needs to be among the foremost factors for consideration for policymakers in adopting and implementing macroeconomic and public policies. In order to be most effective in tackling corruption, it is important to get to the root of the problem. In light of the study findings, it is suggested that corruption need to be put under control and economies be made more open to attain more benefits and accelerate economic growth and development. Originality/value – Explicitly, this study provides some valuable evidence on the linkage between endemic corruption and economic growth in some Asia and the Pacific countries in particular and on developing world in general. Presumably, this is the first inclusive investigation on the subject under the study in the context of Asia and the Pacific countries and will emphatically contribute to the literature as well.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

scholarly journals Impact of the government size on economic growth in the Western Balkan countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
Roberta Bajrami ◽  
Adelina Gashi ◽  
Kosovare Ukshini ◽  
Donat Rexha
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Government Size ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Keynesian theory states that economic growth is positively affected by government spending, while Classical theory states that economic growth is negatively affected by government spending, as is stated by neoclassical public choice theorists (Nyasha & Odhiambo, 2019). Based on these theories, many authors have carried out research on the impact of economic freedom on economic growth by analyzing various empirical cases. Bergh and Karlsson (2010) with the findings from his paper confirmed that the countries with the highest government size have an elevated growth in the globalization index of KOF and the Fraser Institute’s economic freedom index. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the government size impact on the growth of the economy in the Western Balkan in the time period 2000–2017 according to Fraser Institute’s data, incorporating the following econometric models: fixed and random effects, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), and Hausman-Taylor IV. With these models, this paper analyzes a government size and its components: government enterprises and investment, government consumption, transfers, and subsidies. The results illustrate a relationship between the size of the government and the growth of the economy in the Western Balkans that is positive. 1% increase in government size affects 0.29% gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita. According to the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable, 1% growth of government consumption is affected by 0.69% the decline in GDP per capita. The growth rate of transfers and subsidies affects 0.17% of GDP growth per capita and 1% of government enterprises and investment affects 0.54% GDP growth per capita.

Five-party Latvian government may not last full term

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Full Term ◽  
Think Tanks ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Eu

Subject Latvia’s new government. Significance Elections in October followed the recent European trend of producing a particularly fractured parliament. With seven of the 16 competing parties winning seats, negotiations on forming a governing coalition were complicated. Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins’s administration took office on January 23, more than 100 days after the election. Impacts With economic growth moderating to 3.1% from 4.7% in 2018, Latvia’s GDP per capita ranking (23rd in the EU in 2017) will continue to lag. A dearth of think tanks and policy units means a lack of ideas about how to generate faster growth and stem demographic decline. Failure to find solutions to Latvia’s problems will lead to yet more popular disenchantment.

Achieving SDG target 8.1 (sustain economic growth) in developing countries: how aid for trade policy and regulations can assist?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Kumar Roy ◽  
Huang Xiaoling ◽  
Banna Banik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Aid For Trade ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Purpose This study aims to examine how aid for trade policy and regulations (AfTPR) contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1 (sustain per capita economic growth) and whether the effectiveness of AfTPR is conditional to the stable political environment. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses a widely accepted endogenous growth framework and applies panel data fixed effects and two-step difference and system generalized method of moments estimation strategies on panel data of 50 developing countries over 2005–2017. Findings The findings of the study confirm that aid to trade policy promotes sustainable economic growth in developing countries, but this category of development assistance is only effective and significant for low and lower middle-income (LLMI) economies. The positive and significant effect of AfTPR in upper middle-income countries is conditional to their level of political stability. Under a stable political situation, the positive effect of AfTPR on sustainable growth remains almost same for the LLMI countries, whereas for the upper middle-income countries this growth effect reached almost double. Research limitations/implications International trade is considered as a driver for inclusive and sustainable economic growth, whereas aid for trade is acknowledged for its prospective contribution toward achieving these goals. The findings have dominant policy implications for the international development organizations and donors, which recommend that it is more desirable to transmit aid toward developing and implementing trade policy and regulations as per capita economic growth improves in the aid recipient countries. Originality/value According to the authors’ knowledge, no prior study empirically analyzes the effect of AfTPRs on SDG target 8.1.

GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 406-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Korotayev ◽  
Stanislav Bilyuga ◽  
Alisa Shishkina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Given ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Purchasing Power Parities

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not characterized by a straightforward negative correlation; it rather has an inverted U-shape. The highest risks are typical for the countries with intermediate values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, economic growth predicts an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. This positive correlation is particularly strong ( r = .94, R2 = .88) and significant for the intensity of antigovernment demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20,000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPPs]). We suggest that it is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (a) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies antigovernment demonstrations; (b) in the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20,000, the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes; and, finally, (c) GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of antigovernment demonstrations.

A comparative analysis of environmental quality and Kuznets curve between two newly industrialized economies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kanon Kumar Sen ◽  
Md. Thasinul Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emission ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Per Capita

PurposeDue to large amounts of coal burning, huge carbon dioxide emission and poor environmental quality, it is important to identify whether environmental Kuznets curve exists in China and India since in downward period of environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth in these countries will largely contribute to world environmental quality. Further, it helps to make a comparative analysis between China and India on how economic growth will contribute to the environmental quality in both upward and downward period of environmental Kuznets curve due to energy consumption.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the data of carbon dioxide emission, per capita GDP and energy consumption from 1972 to 2017 to identify individual and panel-level environmental Kuznets curve of China and India. Before going to regression and causality analysis, unit root and cointegration tests are performed.FindingsThis study finds the existence of environmental Kuznets curve in China and India at both individual and panel level. Further, due to high energy consumption, environmental quality in China will deteriorate at a lower rate in the long run than that of India. Next, the increase in economic growth or per capita GDP in the long run will deteriorate environmental quality at a lower rate in China than that of India. Besides, with the zero level of energy consumption and per capita GDP, the environmental quality of China will be worse than that of India. However, increase in per capita GDP after threshold level will improve environmental quality in India at a higher rate than that of China.Research limitations/implicationsIt helps to formalize the comparative relationship between the two large Asian economies by knowing the influence of economic growth on environmental degradation due to energy consumption. However, this study cannot conclude exactly when China and India can avail the downturn in environmental Kuznets curve.Originality/valueIt firstly establishes a link among energy consumption, economic growth and environmental quality between China and India including comparative pace in both upward and downward period of environmental Kuznets curve.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document