scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

The Reproduction Vector of the Russian Economy: 1999-2007

2008 ◽  
pp. 94-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Sorokin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Developed Countries

The problem of the Russian economy’s growth rates is considered in the article in the context of Russia’s backwardness regarding GDP per capita in comparison with the developed countries. The author stresses the urgency of modernization of the real sector of the economy and the recovery of the country’s human capital. For reaching these goals short- or mid-term programs are not sufficient. Economic policy needs a long-term (15-20 years) strategy, otherwise Russia will be condemned to economic inertia and multiplying structural disproportions.

HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT OF REPUBLIC OF CROATIA AND PRIMORSKOGORANSKA COUNTY AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH∗

2009 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-24
Author(s):  
Nada Karaman Aksentijevic ◽  
Zoran Jezic
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Human Resources ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Human Resources Development ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Theoretical Part ◽  
Educational Structures ◽  
Indirect Indicator ◽  
Per Capita

In the theoretical part of research authors will establish connections and diversities between human capital and human resources categories. In the empirical part of research, via HDI, it will be evaluated the development of human resources in Republic Of Croatia and in Primorsko-goranska County and in will be evaluated relation between HDI and GDP per capita of Croatia and in Primorsko-goranska County. Authors will also analyze how much development of human resources has contributed to the economic growth of Republic Of Croatia. In order to demonstrate this it will be measured influence of investment, employment and educational structures (the indirect indicator of development of human resources) on the growth of GDP in the period of 1997-2005 with usage of regression analyses.

scholarly journals Trade Openness and Economic Growth Nexus: A Case Study of BRICS

2018 ◽  
Vol 54 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. G. Burange ◽  
Rucha R. Ranadive ◽  
Neha N. Karnik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Jel Codes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Econometric Technique

The article analyses a causal relationship between trade openness and economic growth for the member countries of BRICS by using an econometric technique of time series analysis. Member countries of BRICS adopted a series of liberalization reforms, almost simultaneously, from the late 1980s. The article attempts to study the impact of trade openness on their growth in GDP per capita. It captures structural composition of GDP and openness of trade in four aspects, that is, merchandise exports, merchandise imports, services export and services import. In India, the study found growth-led trade in services hypothesis. The article supports the growth-led export and growth-led import hypothesis for China and export- and import-led growth for South Africa. However, no causal relationship was evident for Brazil and Russia. JEL Codes: F43, C22

FDI and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naqeeb Ur Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Literacy Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between FDI and economic growth. Two models have been used to analyse the time series data on Pakistan from 1970 to 2012. This paper contributes to the existing literature by examining the different empirical methods to estimate the relationship between FDI and economic growth. The vector error correction model (VECM) results suggest that FDI depends on the economic growth but this relationship is not true vice versa. The second model showed that FDI, human capital and exports are important factors of economic growth. However, the negative relationship between interactive variables (FDI and human capital) and economic growth indicates that low level of human capital affect the economic growth of Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – Used time series data (1970-2012) for empirical analysis. Findings – The VECM results suggest that FDI depends on the economic growth but this relationship is not true vice versa. The second model showed that FDI, human capital and exports are important factors of economic growth. However, the negative relationship between interactive variables (FDI and human capital) and economic growth indicates that low level of human capital affect the economic growth of Pakistan. Research limitations/implications – The limitations of this empirical paper are as follows: it would be better to use secondary school enrolment (per cent) to measure human capital instead adult literacy rate. Similarly, the non-availability of R & D data on Pakistan limited the scope of the paper to measure the role of absorptive capacity of domestic and its relationship with FDI. The results of this paper are specifically related to Pakistan and cannot be generalized to other countries. Practical implications – This empirical study implies that Pakistan should improve its economic growth. The robust policies are required to increase the literacy rate of the country. Higher human capital will attract more FDI into the economy and may reduce the unemployment. This would increase the national output of the country and their national income level. Presently, Pakistan is going through war on terror and foreign firms are reluctant to invest. A stable and secure business environment will ultimately inject foreign direct investment into Pakistan. Originality/value – This paper is first time analyse the time series data to explore the relationship between FDI and economic growth. A new approach has been used called VECM.

scholarly journals The problem of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Senanu Kwasi Klutse
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

A wide range of policy-related variables have a persistent influence on economic growth. This has consistently maintained the interest of economists on the determinants of economic growth over the years. There is consensus however that for countries to grow sustainably, a lot of stall must be placed on higher savings rate as this makes it easy for such countries to grow faster because they endogenously allocate more resources to inventive activities. Due to data difficulties in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) it is nearly impossible for one to consider important variables such as accumulation of knowledge and human capital when analysing growth sustainability. Studying four lower middle-income countries in SSA – Ghana, Republic of Congo, Kenya and Lesotho – this study tests the hypothesis of sustainable growth by using a Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) model to examine the relationship between savings, investment, budget deficit and the growth variable. The results showed that savings had a significant but negative relationship with the GDP per capita (PPP). A Granger Causality test conducted showed that savings does not granger cause GDP per capita (PPP), the HDI index, deficit and investment. This leads to the conclusion that growth in these countries are not sustainable. The study recommends that policy makers focus on the savings variable if these countries will want to achieve sustainable growth.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 406-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Korotayev ◽  
Stanislav Bilyuga ◽  
Alisa Shishkina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Given ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Purchasing Power Parities

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not characterized by a straightforward negative correlation; it rather has an inverted U-shape. The highest risks are typical for the countries with intermediate values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, economic growth predicts an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. This positive correlation is particularly strong ( r = .94, R2 = .88) and significant for the intensity of antigovernment demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20,000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPPs]). We suggest that it is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (a) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies antigovernment demonstrations; (b) in the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20,000, the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes; and, finally, (c) GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of antigovernment demonstrations.

Tests of a more comprehensive model of economic growth in lower middle-income countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a more comprehensive model of economic growth using a sample of 28 lower middle-income developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors modify the conventional neoclassical growth model to account for the impact of the increase in the number of people working relative to the total population and that of the increase in the value added per worker over time. The authors then extend this model by incorporating the role of trade, government consumption, and human capital in output growth. Findings Regression results show that over three quarters of cross-lower middle-income country variations in per capita GDP growth rate can be explained by per capita growth in the share of public expenditures on education in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of government consumption in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of imports in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of manufactured exports in the GDP (not of that of total exports in the GDP), and the growth of the working population relative to the total population. Practical implications Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in these countries identify policy fundamentals that are essential for economic growth. Originality/value To address the simultaneity bias, the authors develop a simultaneous equations model and are able to show that such model is more robust and helps explains cross-country variations in per capita GDP growth over the 2000-2014 period.

scholarly journals Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-300
Author(s):  
Jan Luiten van Zanden ◽  
Jutta Bolt
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Low Rate

AbstractAs contribution to the debate about the interpretation of the process of economic growth before the Industrial Revolution, we discuss two concerns about the currently available estimates of historical national accounts and the way in which these estimates should be interpreted. Firstly, we argue that estimates of the long-term trends of economic growth should make use of all information contained in time series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP henceforth), and therefore use standard regression analysis to establish those trends. Secondly, we point to the problem that the time series of historical GDP are based on very different estimation procedures, which probably affect the outcome in terms of the level of GDP per capita in the period before 1850. Both concerns imply that we do not entirely agree with Jack Goldstone’s views of pre-industrial growth. In particular, his conclusion that growth was cyclical before 1800 is inconsistent with the available GDP estimates, which point to sustained growth, albeit at a very low rate.

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